EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 3838
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Sermokala
United States13862 Posts
On January 01 2023 02:08 micronesia wrote: What are the odds Hogan runs for president? He doesn't bother me at all compared to just about any other candidate, but he lives just down the street from me so that could become a huge pain  My mind flashed Hulk Hogan for a second and my mind projected seeing it happen. On the bright side if he did run you could sell your house for a massivly inflated value. You would own real estate on the most secure street in the world. + Show Spoiler + I am a real american fight for the rights of every man. I am a real american fight for whats right fight for your life! | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10129 Posts
Thoughts on this or do you agree with me that DeSantis is a dangerous opponent for Dems. | ||
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brian
United States9616 Posts
on one hand, i also think he’d actually have a white house of something resembling professional experts, so maybe less outright dangerous? but i’d imagine he’d also be actually productive, so, a double edged sword. but as far as electibility (heyyy LL) is concerned, i feel like he’s got it. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10426 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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brian
United States9616 Posts
On January 01 2023 06:11 BlackJack wrote: I think there’s no shortage of Democrats that secretly want Trump to run again to clear the primary field. I don’t see how anyone would be able to predict whether DeSantis can get turnout 2 years from now. Things can change rapidly once he gets the spotlight of being the Republican nominee. He’s obviously a talented politician. given they actively donated to trumpists/election deniers in hopes of pushing voters away from R candidates, you’re likely very right and I bet when time comes it won’t be so secret either. it would be 2016 all over again. | ||
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pmh
1352 Posts
On January 01 2023 05:40 FlaShFTW wrote: Seeing a lot of people on Twitter say how DeSantis would actually far worse than Trump in the Rust Belt states notably Michigan. I've had to opposite opinion, where DeSantis definitely sheds a lot of the controversy and issues that Trump had running in 2020, that Biden would have a much more difficult time against him come 2024. But they seem to think that the Trumper voters just wouldn't turn out in 2024 if DeSantis was the GOP nominee and would let Biden win comfortably in the Rust Belt (+5 or so). Thoughts on this or do you agree with me that DeSantis is a dangerous opponent for Dems. DeSantis is a dangerous opponent but it is probably true that some voters who voted for trump wont vote on DeSantis and stay home instead. It would be much easier for DeSantis if Trump didnt run again,and for example endorsed DeSantis as his "successor". If DeSantis wins and Trump endorses him after loosing to him (not sure Trump would be able to do that),it will probably be more difficult to convince Trump supporters to vote for DeSantis then if Trump didnt ran at all. They will have the feeling of a missed opportunity , and a heated primary in which Trump ends up losing might turn them away from voting anyone but Trump. I am still not convinced Trump will run by the way,even though he has announced he will do so. Biden i think wont win comfortably no matter who runs against him (though i do think he would be a very slight favorit if there where elections right now). And DeSantis is probably de most dangerous opponent for him. The biggest risk for the republicans now is polarization within their own party. Between Trump supporters and the more mainstream republicans. If this polarization escalates during the primarys then the republicans will face a very difficult cycle. Trump was polarizing before but he could deliver a win,which made it not a huge issue to support him. But if there is this polarization without hope that Trump can deliver a victory,then it might become problematic. (just a quick take based on intuition. I didnt think about this to deeply and maybe i will change my mind on some points that i mention here). | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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pmh
1352 Posts
On January 01 2023 08:24 JimmiC wrote: If Trump lost the primary I think a bigger question to whether or not he would endorse. It would be whether or not he would admit he lost or if he would blame RINOs and the RNC of fixing it. Yes thats one of the bigger risks for the republicans,this type of polarization would ruin any changes they might have. But Trump knows what is at stake and it seems very unlikely to me that it will go this way if he loses. The risk is mostly in the primary itself i think. Which could end up beeing quiet heated seeing the previous primary. Maybe Trump will play it in a less confrontational way this time,at least when it comes to DeSantis. To avoid this risk for the party. Trumps chances i rate pretty low by the way. For the primary itself and even more so for a general election. It would be a pretty unique comeback story though,and those storys always have some apeal to americans in general. But right now i think this would be a step to far and not very likely. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10426 Posts
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pmh
1352 Posts
On January 01 2023 08:51 BlackJack wrote: Biggest win for Republicans would be if Trump gets charged and banned from running. Clears the way for DeSantis who can leverage a future pardon for Trumps endorsement and they get to play the witch hunt card to boot. That would probably be the ideal scenario for the republicans indeed. It sorts of solves all potential problems and it would be a big motivation to vote for Trump supporters. It seems unlikely to me that trump will get banned from running , but it is something to keep an eye on as that scenario apears to be very good for the republicans. | ||
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Sadist
United States7217 Posts
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TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On January 01 2023 10:08 pmh wrote: That would probably be the ideal scenario for the republicans indeed. It sorts of solves all potential problems and it would be a big motivation to vote for Trump supporters. It seems unlikely to me that trump will get banned from running , but it is something to keep an eye on as that scenario apears to be very good for the republicans. Would it? Consider that Trump has always angled himself as an outsider and that the Republican Party, especially DeSantis, is in cahoots with with the others to block Trump from becoming Emperor of the United States. Trump has been extremely consistent when it comes to shitting on the Republican Party. He has the correct read that the Republican Party has spent decades, ever since the removal of the Fairness Doctrine in media, breaking the brains of their voter base. So much so that there's a large contingent that no longer believe voting is fair, Democrats are consistently rigging elections and that they need a big strong dicatorial daddy to save themselves from all the evils of the world. And he is that daddy. The other thing is that so much of conservative media is so bankrupt that everyone is grifting all the way down. Trump is not innocent of this, he has his own grift of maintain rather than beg DeSantis for help. | ||
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pmh
1352 Posts
If the primary is heated and trump goes hard against for example DeSantis. Then if Trump loses this anger will partially be directed toward DeSantis and the republican party in general. If Trump gets banned from running this anger has only one way to go,towards the democrats. I dont think Trump will try to ruin the party if things dont go his way,despite him making various threats. There would be to much pressure on him to not do so. And while he might have little to lose himself,it would spoil any possible future his children might have in politics. So i dont think it will go this way but maybe i am wrong. | ||
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Sadist
United States7217 Posts
On January 01 2023 18:34 pmh wrote: Anger is a big motivation. If the primary is heated and trump goes hard against for example DeSantis. Then if Trump loses this anger will partially be directed toward DeSantis and the republican party in general. If Trump gets banned from running this anger has only one way to go,towards the democrats. I dont think Trump will try to ruin the party if things dont go his way,despite him making various threats. There would be to much pressure on him to not do so. And while he might have little to lose himself,it would spoil any possible future his children might have in politics. So i dont think it will go this way but maybe i am wrong. I dont think he gives a shit about his children. They are only a tool to him. His kids arent getting elected anyway. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10129 Posts
On January 01 2023 10:53 Sadist wrote: If he loses the primary he will claim its rigged and run 3rd party. He already made those threats in 2016 and hes enough of an egomaniac to actually follow through with it. He would do it just to spite the republicans. This is another big question mark right now with the future 2024 election. If Trump loses (which polls currently have him losing to DeSantis but a decent margin, tho primaries are always very volatile), is his ego big enough to run 3rd party and effective throw the election to the Democrats? Or would he see the bigger picture? I think right now it's the biggest question mark that I have on 2024. I think the consensus here is that DeSantis is a well polished politician that is effectively Trump 2.0 in terms of actual policies, but people don't see into him as much because of his polished manner, they tend to separate him from Trump even though politically they're almost identical. This would fair poorly for Democrats with moderate voters, who voted for Trump in 2016 when he still had some semblance of being normal. That all went away by 2020 and he ultimately lost the moderate vote that was crucial for him in 2016. DeSantis has the ability to pull back those moderates and we may end up with a repeat of 2016. But it's still almost 2 years from now so lots can change. | ||
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Godwrath
Spain10121 Posts
On January 01 2023 08:51 BlackJack wrote: Biggest win for Republicans would be if Trump gets charged and banned from running. Clears the way for DeSantis who can leverage a future pardon for Trumps endorsement and they get to play the witch hunt card to boot. It must be thrilling to be able to talk only about optics and ignore policies completely when you are choosing your nominee. On January 01 2023 10:53 Sadist wrote: If he loses the primary he will claim its rigged and run 3rd party. He already made those threats in 2016 and hes enough of an egomaniac to actually follow through with it. He would do it just to spite the republicans. I doubt he will run for primaries again. There is no reason why he would not announce that he is running for primaries. He might not run, but if you had a huge following and shaped the republican politics for almost a decade, why not use it to obtain some favours in return just so you don't run again ? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21628 Posts
On January 02 2023 10:48 Godwrath wrote: Because he need the Office of the President to use as a shield from legal prosecution.It must be thrilling to be able to talk only about optics and ignore policies completely when you are choosing your nominee. I doubt he will run for primaries again. There is no reason why he would not announce that he is running for primaries. He might not run, but if you had a huge following and shaped the republican politics for almost a decade, why not use it to obtain some favours in return just so you don't run again ? He can take a pinkie swear for a pardon but that doesn't cover state crimes and means he has to actually leave his life in someone else's hands. Not sure his narcissism can allow him to do that. | ||
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TDonkfarts
18 Posts
On January 02 2023 04:06 FlaShFTW wrote: I think the consensus here is that DeSantis is a well polished politician that is effectively Trump 2.0 in terms of actual policies, but people don't see into him as much because of his polished manner, they tend to separate him from Trump even though politically they're almost identical. This would fair poorly for Democrats with moderate voters, who voted for Trump in 2016 when he still had some semblance of being normal. That all went away by 2020 and he ultimately lost the moderate vote that was crucial for him in 2016. DeSantis has the ability to pull back those moderates and we may end up with a repeat of 2016. But it's still almost 2 years from now so lots can change. I really think whether or not Democrats lose 2024 will purely be dependant on Biden. Personally, I think lot of conservative talking heads are seeing too much in DeSantis and seriously overrating his performance in Florida. I don't think he's particuarly polished, he's just smashing face in Florida because:
People really don't know much about DeSantis because not everyone cares about Florida state issues. The minute he has to defend his positions on a national stage, it gets much harder to present himself as a sane individual because the US is a big country after all. I honestly think the more Republicans keep conflating LGBT with pedophilia (an insane belief might I add), the more its going to radicalise the generations of people who have lived with positive LGBT people in our media away from the Republican Party. And DeSantis will absolutely keep doing so because the primary focus of the Republican Party right now are purely culture war issues and he is cut from the same cloth. For all the faults of Donald Trump, he mostly dodged the absolute worst of the current Republican culture war insanity during the 2016 elections by having his campaign be primarily focused on economic protectionism. | ||
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