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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
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On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument.
Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny.
In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise:
Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.”
I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side.
Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think:
https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago.
https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/
Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened.
Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling.
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The recall election for SF DA Chesa Boudin is in 2 days. I think the voters are just looking for any reason they can to recall a progressive DA because, of course, San Francisco is MAGA country. [/sarcasm]
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On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm]
I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019.
Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019.
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Northern Ireland26976 Posts
On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019.
Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might.
Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily.
I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity.
Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale?
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On June 06 2022 11:50 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019. Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might. Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily. I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity. Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale?
Stores in the city are closing earlier and have more and more items under lock and key because of the crime there. The homeless problem is also very obvious. COVID and col may just exacerbate reasons people are already down on the city.
I know this isn't much of an "argument" but Californians know SF is in a bad spot. The seeming 180 the mayor has done on her policies (or at least rhetoric) the past year or so is evidence enough of that. The state of SF was a major campaign talking point when the then-mayor-of-SF-now-governor Newsom was running for statewide office. Voters there also recently threw out a bunch of school board members who were too "woke" even for the voters in SF. Homeless and crime are major issues in the state as a whole and San Francisco is the epitome of all that's wrong. It certainly seems like the voters are about the throw out the prosecution-averse DA based on all the issues going on. I'm not sure why some in this thread are pouring so much energy into trying to deny what's happening. I'm not sure if it's petty vendettas against other posters or it's some "progressive Democrats can do no wrong" type thing but asking to prove if San Francisco is in dire straits is like asking if the sky is blue. You wouldn't deny it unless you had some ulterior reason.
edit: we'll see if the voters kick the DA out, he had a lot of money backing him to get him in, and he has a lot now. But even if it's a close call surely this ought to be evidence that there is SOME problem in SF, if things were going swimmingly surely there would be no need for a recall, and the mayor wouldn't have taken a sharp new turn the past 12 months or so.
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On June 06 2022 11:50 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019. Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might. Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily. I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity. Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale?
The San Francisco metro area is the only place in the country where rent is BELOW pre-pandemic levels.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-rental-prices-below-pandemic-17172167.php
The San Francisco metro area also has enjoyed the mildest inflation of any metro area in the country.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-was-hottest-in-atlanta-mildest-in-san-francisco-in-2021-11644748200
I posted the link of the Mayors press conference where she says (quoting this from memory so may not be exact), “it’s time for the reign of criminals that are destroying are city to come to an end. That happens when we get more aggressive with our police force and it happens when we stop tolerating all the bullshit…”
“Destroying the city” is more harsh than anything I’ve said, jeez. Like why on earth would she say that if crime was actually getting better like JimmiC says. Is that a good political move if you’re mayor? Just announce “hey guys I know things have been going pretty shitty but I’m hoping we can turn this around!”
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Crime might be less of an issue if Democrats and Republicans hadnt been driving a colossal economic wedge into America.
I'd bet we see much less crime if people were paid a real living and thriving wage.
California almost makes me glad though, because its a good example of the fact that Democrats don't actually care, give them as much power as you want and they're still not going to solve any real problems.
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Northern Ireland26976 Posts
On June 06 2022 19:58 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 11:50 WombaT wrote:On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019. Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might. Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily. I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity. Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale? The San Francisco metro area is the only place in the country where rent is BELOW pre-pandemic levels. https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-rental-prices-below-pandemic-17172167.phpThe San Francisco metro area also has enjoyed the mildest inflation of any metro area in the country. https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-was-hottest-in-atlanta-mildest-in-san-francisco-in-2021-11644748200I posted the link of the Mayors press conference where she says (quoting this from memory so may not be exact), “it’s time for the reign of criminals that are destroying are city to come to an end. That happens when we get more aggressive with our police force and it happens when we stop tolerating all the bullshit…” “Destroying the city” is more harsh than anything I’ve said, jeez. Like why on earth would she say that if crime was actually getting better like JimmiC says. Is that a good political move if you’re mayor? Just announce “hey guys I know things have been going pretty shitty but I’m hoping we can turn this around!”
Crime is probably the number one area where perception becomes reality, and also the number one area where public figures performatively crack the whip to guide perceptions in their favour. I’m sure we’ve all seen this innumerable times.
Hypothetically, let’s assume crime is equal, I think the average person is going to find a more permissive approach somewhat offensive to their moral sensibilities, even if the output is roughly comparable. It feeds into the aforementioned cultivation of the perception that crime is running amok much more than cracking heads does.
Thanks for the info on property prices, my assumption from this side of the Atlantic was that SF would be one of the more blue chip high rent places to live.
I think many of us have been critical of how some of SF’s measures have been implemented anyway. If you just become more permissive on criminal behaviour without tackling underlying issues like homelessness, you’re only really going to get one result.
I think you broadly end up with two parallel discussions. Is more radical reform of criminal justice in general a good idea, and do people in general think that’s a good idea?
With the former I would argue it is, with the latter I would absolutely put my chips on no. Which dovetails rather neatly with what you’ve been posting, which I broadly agree with.
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On June 07 2022 02:46 WombaT wrote:
Thanks for the info on property prices, my assumption from this side of the Atlantic was that SF would be one of the more blue chip high rent places to live.
To be clear, even if the price rise over a recent period was subdued San Francisco is one of the most overpriced cities in the US. It might just be that the smaller (< 2 million) cities are just raising prices faster. In terms of absolute price, San Francisco is either #1 or a close second behind New York.
It's also hard to say which of the two cities is more grossly mismanaged but the signs of being an utter shithole are undeniable in either of them.
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On June 07 2022 02:46 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2022 19:58 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 11:50 WombaT wrote:On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019. Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might. Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily. I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity. Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale? The San Francisco metro area is the only place in the country where rent is BELOW pre-pandemic levels. https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-rental-prices-below-pandemic-17172167.phpThe San Francisco metro area also has enjoyed the mildest inflation of any metro area in the country. https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-was-hottest-in-atlanta-mildest-in-san-francisco-in-2021-11644748200I posted the link of the Mayors press conference where she says (quoting this from memory so may not be exact), “it’s time for the reign of criminals that are destroying are city to come to an end. That happens when we get more aggressive with our police force and it happens when we stop tolerating all the bullshit…” “Destroying the city” is more harsh than anything I’ve said, jeez. Like why on earth would she say that if crime was actually getting better like JimmiC says. Is that a good political move if you’re mayor? Just announce “hey guys I know things have been going pretty shitty but I’m hoping we can turn this around!” Crime is probably the number one area where perception becomes reality, and also the number one area where public figures performatively crack the whip to guide perceptions in their favour. I’m sure we’ve all seen this innumerable times. Hypothetically, let’s assume crime is equal, I think the average person is going to find a more permissive approach somewhat offensive to their moral sensibilities, even if the output is roughly comparable. It feeds into the aforementioned cultivation of the perception that crime is running amok much more than cracking heads does. Thanks for the info on property prices, my assumption from this side of the Atlantic was that SF would be one of the more blue chip high rent places to live. I think many of us have been critical of how some of SF’s measures have been implemented anyway. If you just become more permissive on criminal behaviour without tackling underlying issues like homelessness, you’re only really going to get one result. I think you broadly end up with two parallel discussions. Is more radical reform of criminal justice in general a good idea, and do people in general think that’s a good idea? With the former I would argue it is, with the latter I would absolutely put my chips on no. Which dovetails rather neatly with what you’ve been posting, which I broadly agree with.
Except these aren't average people that would find a more permissive approach somewhat offensive to their moral sensibilities. This is exactly what the people of the city wanted. It's not like this is a rogue DA that single-handedly decided to deliver radical reform. He campaigned on this and all he is doing is delivering what he promised and what the voters supported. Now they are having buyer's remorse.
NYC used to be a crime infested shithole in the 70s and 80s of unparalleled proportions. The main theory they followed to clean up the city was the Broken Windows theory.
Social psychologists and police officers tend to agree that if a window in a building is broken and is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. This is as true in nice neighborhoods as in rundown ones. Window-breaking does not necessarily occur on a large scale because some areas are inhabited by determined window-breakers whereas others are populated by window-lovers; rather, one un-repaired broken window is a signal that no one cares, and so breaking more windows costs nothing. (It has always been fun.)
Malcolm Gladwell writes about it in his book The Tipping Point. They cracked down on low-level crimes like graffiti, littering, and fare-beating with that idea that allowing people to get away with the little things sends a message that disorder and lawlessness is tolerated.
Chesa Boudin has taken the exact opposite approach in San Francisco. Even before he got into office he vowed to not prosecute anyone for so called "quality-of-life" crimes. Prostitution, drug use, drug dealing, shitting on the street, it's all A-ok.
Now I have no problem if people want to make a moral argument based around compassion and empathy for why we shouldn't police these things. What I take umbrage with is when people argue that this is somehow great crime-fighting policy and will improve the city in the long run. Step 1. Let people shit and shoot drugs on the sidewalk, Step 2. ????? Step 3. Profit. It's a little bit too much of an assault on rationality for me.
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Northern Ireland26976 Posts
On June 07 2022 06:41 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2022 02:46 WombaT wrote:On June 06 2022 19:58 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 11:50 WombaT wrote:On June 06 2022 10:20 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 09:53 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 09:09 BlackJack wrote:On June 06 2022 07:41 JimmiC wrote:On June 06 2022 07:16 BlackJack wrote:
I don't really keep track of what Tucker Carlson says, but if you want to declare that he is flipping his narratives maybe bring more evidence than a single sentence that everyone else easily interprets as sarcasm. The video and the article were the evidence, which is a hell of a lot more than you ever bring. I mean you did bring a stat that people were leaving SF and than assumed it was because of crime and defudning the police, with zero evidence connecting them. And the budget had not dropped and the crime had not risen, but why spoil your assumption? Then when christianS asks you direct questions you fall immediately silent. That you and you bestie agree is not very compelling to me, even with one other person. Hell given your history, you disagreeing helps my argument. Yeah I said crime was on the rise in San Francisco and you copy/pasted some links trying to argue that it wasn't. Your links showed that although homicides, shootings, car thefts, etc. were on the rise, some things like petty larceny were on the decline. With a small bit of critical thinking we might conclude there is a reporting problem and people have long given up on reporting low-level property crimes to police that make few arrests and a DA that gives a slap on the wrist. Maybe the reason homicides and car thefts are on the rise and other small crimes are down is because you can't exactly not report a homicide or a car theft in the way you can not report petty larceny. In fact, that's literally what is said in one of the links you yourself provided to argue that crime was not on the rise: Many property crimes in the city go unreported, making it difficult to gauge the level of decline. For retail theft specifically — classified as larceny theft in the city data, a category that typically makes up more than half of the city's total reported incidents — many stores have said it is not worth reporting thefts to police.
“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.” I suspect you often don't even read your own sources. 90% of what you do here is google "show me why I'm right" and just copy paste the cherry picked things that agree with your side. Forget about what I think, here's some polls of the people of San Francisco and what they think: https://sfstandard.com/politics/homelessness-sf-standard-poll-public-safety-exodus-leaving/#:~:text=Forty-four percent of San,San Francisco Standard Voter Poll. Forty-four percent of San Francisco voters plan to eventually leave the city, citing homelessness, the high cost of living and rising crime as the top reasons for looking elsewhere, according to the inaugural San Francisco Standard Voter Poll.
Public safety is a major concern for San Franciscans, with 65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019. Thirty percent of respondents said that they feel as safe as they did in 2019, while only 5% said they felt either more or much more safe than they did three years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/poll-san-francisco-residents-consider-relocating-as-crime-worsen-quality-of-life-in-a-decline/Poll: San Francisco Residents Consider Relocating As Crime Worsens, Quality Of Life In A Decline
80% of residents say crime has worsened in recent years, 70% feel that quality of life has declined, and 88% say homelessness has worsened. Unfortunately the vast majority of people that actually live in San Francisco disagree with your conclusion that "if anything [crime] looks like its getting better not worse" that you obtained from 15 minutes of googling. I read that, it is true of everywhere. Feel free to leave your bubble once in a while. You are also continuing to not come close to making your arguement. Your arguement was that people were leaving because defund the police made crime worse. First you have not shown that the police were in anyway defunded. Next you have not shown crime went up. Next you have not shown that crime was why people left. Maybe they left because of all the work from home and the crazy high housing prices? Or any of 1000 other reasons. You do have a poll, which would show that people thought it was worse which could show evidence that was why people were leaving EXCEPT HILARIOUSLY you have posted a poll from 2019, which was before the defund announcement!!!!! If you want to blame defund, you should find stats after it(and make sure it happened). This is not even your first time. Damn! You might really want to do some thinking before you make your big shit talk, talk down to me post. Your "evidence" is more embarassingly bad than even I thought you were capable of. Im sure you will post better in the future though [/sarcasm] I posted 2 polls, one from June 2021 and one from May 2022. Not sure where you're getting 2019. Maybe from the line "65% saying they feel either less safe or much less safe today than in 2019." It's saying people are feeling less safe now than they did in 2019. It's not saying the poll was conducted in 2019. Are they correct? People feel a lot of things. Much of which isn’t really backed up by any actual numbers. Although in this case they might. Anyway, that aside, I’m unsure if you can link the numbers leaving the city with crime, necessarily. I would assume that San Fran is bloody expensive to live in, we’re seeing both current cost of living increases, and well a pandemic that limited wider working capacity. Would that, as opposed to fear of endemic crime not serve to explain people leaving the locale? The San Francisco metro area is the only place in the country where rent is BELOW pre-pandemic levels. https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Bay-Area-rental-prices-below-pandemic-17172167.phpThe San Francisco metro area also has enjoyed the mildest inflation of any metro area in the country. https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-was-hottest-in-atlanta-mildest-in-san-francisco-in-2021-11644748200I posted the link of the Mayors press conference where she says (quoting this from memory so may not be exact), “it’s time for the reign of criminals that are destroying are city to come to an end. That happens when we get more aggressive with our police force and it happens when we stop tolerating all the bullshit…” “Destroying the city” is more harsh than anything I’ve said, jeez. Like why on earth would she say that if crime was actually getting better like JimmiC says. Is that a good political move if you’re mayor? Just announce “hey guys I know things have been going pretty shitty but I’m hoping we can turn this around!” Crime is probably the number one area where perception becomes reality, and also the number one area where public figures performatively crack the whip to guide perceptions in their favour. I’m sure we’ve all seen this innumerable times. Hypothetically, let’s assume crime is equal, I think the average person is going to find a more permissive approach somewhat offensive to their moral sensibilities, even if the output is roughly comparable. It feeds into the aforementioned cultivation of the perception that crime is running amok much more than cracking heads does. Thanks for the info on property prices, my assumption from this side of the Atlantic was that SF would be one of the more blue chip high rent places to live. I think many of us have been critical of how some of SF’s measures have been implemented anyway. If you just become more permissive on criminal behaviour without tackling underlying issues like homelessness, you’re only really going to get one result. I think you broadly end up with two parallel discussions. Is more radical reform of criminal justice in general a good idea, and do people in general think that’s a good idea? With the former I would argue it is, with the latter I would absolutely put my chips on no. Which dovetails rather neatly with what you’ve been posting, which I broadly agree with. Except these aren't average people that would find a more permissive approach somewhat offensive to their moral sensibilities. This is exactly what the people of the city wanted. It's not like this is a rogue DA that single-handedly decided to deliver radical reform. He campaigned on this and all he is doing is delivering what he promised and what the voters supported. Now they are having buyer's remorse. NYC used to be a crime infested shithole in the 70s and 80s of unparalleled proportions. The main theory they followed to clean up the city was the Broken Windows theory. Show nested quote +Social psychologists and police officers tend to agree that if a window in a building is broken and is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. This is as true in nice neighborhoods as in rundown ones. Window-breaking does not necessarily occur on a large scale because some areas are inhabited by determined window-breakers whereas others are populated by window-lovers; rather, one un-repaired broken window is a signal that no one cares, and so breaking more windows costs nothing. (It has always been fun.) Malcolm Gladwell writes about it in his book The Tipping Point. They cracked down on low-level crimes like graffiti, littering, and fare-beating with that idea that allowing people to get away with the little things sends a message that disorder and lawlessness is tolerated. Chesa Boudin has taken the exact opposite approach in San Francisco. Even before he got into office he vowed to not prosecute anyone for so called "quality-of-life" crimes. Prostitution, drug use, drug dealing, shitting on the street, it's all A-ok. Now I have no problem if people want to make a moral argument based around compassion and empathy for why we shouldn't police these things. What I take umbrage with is when people argue that this is somehow great crime-fighting policy and will improve the city in the long run. Step 1. Let people shit and shoot drugs on the sidewalk, Step 2. ????? Step 3. Profit. It's a little bit too much of an assault on rationality for me.
I’m unsure as to how the Broken Windows theory holds up today, I also don’t think it’s purely to do with punishment for small transgressions. It’s as much to do with cultivating a certain environment, i.e. if you live in an area that looks like shit it’s ultimately demoralising, especially if you are poor that it fosters a rather ‘fuck it’ attitude.
I’m going from memory from a refutation of Broken Windows but New York underwent pretty significant changes in all sorts of areas that would also tend to be attributable to a decline in crime rate, but broken windows policing tended to get a lot of credit for these other things.
Nonetheless you’re countering arguments nobody here is really making.
Change basically nothing except be more lenient across the board is neither the kind of radical reform being suggested, nor is it a good idea
The conditions that cultivate crime aren’t addressed, whatsoever, victims of crime will be pissed off at the lack of restitution in many scenarios, it seems bloody obviously awful policy.
Maybe San Franciscans thought this was a great idea, I certainly don’t, and I don’t think it’s evidence against different approaches given it’s not remotely an implementation of said different approaches.
You have to deal with rampant homelessness, mental health problems, addiction problems and general criminality associated with deprivation.
It seems here none of that has been done.
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Seems like a natural fit to me. Two edge-lord attention whores whose wealth and power depend entirely on how much they are talked about.
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EPT
