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On February 13 2022 04:08 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2022 14:14 Mohdoo wrote:On February 12 2022 13:32 Sermokala wrote:On February 12 2022 11:43 StasisField wrote:On February 12 2022 11:32 Mohdoo wrote:On February 12 2022 10:06 Doc.Rivers wrote:
Odd that Putin waited until after the term of the president with whom he colluded to invade Ukraine huh? Why in the world do you treat this thread like we’re political talk show hosts trying to get zingers in? It’s incredibly obnoxious and also weird. You aren’t running a campaign and neither is anyone else here. Just be normal and have conversations with people rather than pretending there is some score board floating over your head. It's incredibly annoying. I don't understand why people faithfully engage with doc. They aren't here for a discussion they are here to "win" arguments EDIT: On topic: I'm not sure what the best response to Russia is to be honest. Purely sanctions probably won't deter Putin and he will probably keep annexing other countries without some kind of military conflict, but military conflict will be bloody and destructive and might suck us into a greater conflict. I think people underestimate the power hard sanctions could get on Russia. Taking them off international banking and shutting off their gas exports to Germany would cripple their economy overnight and banning them from the upcoming world cup would do a lot to damage them. People see sanctions as appeasement with nazi Germany but they should be looking more at south Africa and Rhodesia for examples of how extensive sanctions can work. If sanctions bring Russia to their knees, and they know that would happen, why would they still go for Ukraine? Think you are overestimating the possible sanctions here. It's unlikely for example that Germany will just accept shutting down gas imports from Russia and if Crimea wasn't enough to restrict dollars and involvement in Russia as Iran style, it's doubtful Russia officially annexing the Ukrainian areas under current Russian "rebel" area into Russia proper as done in Crimea will do so. You are assuming that the aim of a Russian invasion will be the compelete annexation of Ukraine. That is rather unlikely. If the last few years are any indication, Russia is looking for a quick and "easy" media win, not a grand conquest.
If Russia invades and Germany doesn't back the sanctions that the USA desires it will be the new crisis. It won't be hard for biden to blame Germany for sacrificing Ukraine and letting the people die for nothing because they valued money more than democracy and freedom.
They refused to send their panzershrek 2s (modern handheld anti tank weapon designed specifically to target the modern Russian tank in service) but backing down from Russian aggression is a move of cowardess that I ,admittedly as an American, cannot fathom happening.
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On February 13 2022 09:11 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 04:42 Introvert wrote:edit: re why is America supposedly more conservative eh, without giving it too much thought I'd say that while maybe that idea [has been on top too long] is a contributing factor, I'm not sure it's the main reason. I don't even know if it's that important, since the comparison seems most obviously drawn with western European democracies. It is true that Europe has had a lot more war on its soil, and more recently, and those seem to be events that are catalysts for change good and bad. But I'd guess the main reasons are actually 1) federalism, and 2) a more optimistic society. Federalism defuses change and political energy to many different levels... it's less important something changes structurally in the Constitution when the states themselves also extremely important and posses much of the political authority and legitimacy in America. The second is the often mocked-by-those-who-don't-share-it American optimism and future looking tendencies. Americans still by and large believe they can improve their own situation and are not merely victims of circumstance. Therefore it's less important to reform the system fundamentally. It's easier, and smarter, to change yourself. To go with this, Americans are forgetful, and move on from bad times quickly, it's also why we forgive our politicians for so many seemingly ridiculous faux pas or just straight up mistakes. There's less focus on the past than the future. To me it seems like the slow erosion of these two things are actually part of what is wrong in this country. "Diversity is our strength" but maybe not in exactly the same way most people who use that phrase mean it. + Show Spoiler +Note: as usual, I don't like generalizing all Americans and try to avoid the phrase "average American" when at all possible but I don't really see a way around it here. Yes, but that's a circular argument. Things have been going well so people are more optimistic. If things had gone to the shitter, you'd have a less optimistic society. For real world examples, talk to anyone from Eastern Europe about the optimism in their societies.
I was going to wait for Zero, but I'll just say that I'm not sure that's quite correct. First, I'm sure it's true that good times breed optimism. But that doesn't seem circular.
Second, the curious thing we are trying to explain is why America doesn't change despite the problems people think it has. Now, perhaps it's true that things actually aren't that bad, but we've assumed they are for the sake of this discussion. I don't think things are as bad as many on the left and even some on the right say they are, espeically considering the rough and tumble sort of history this country has just in it's own internal affairs. But at the same time, people are more worried about the future now then they were at the end of the cold war, for instance. Even if the slope is more gradual it still feels like it's going downhill.
So I don't think it's fallacious tot think that if the system worked in the past, that we shouldn't just give up on it in the future. But maybe that's just because I am a conservative 
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I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing.
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On February 13 2022 10:04 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 09:11 EnDeR_ wrote:On February 13 2022 04:42 Introvert wrote:edit: re why is America supposedly more conservative eh, without giving it too much thought I'd say that while maybe that idea [has been on top too long] is a contributing factor, I'm not sure it's the main reason. I don't even know if it's that important, since the comparison seems most obviously drawn with western European democracies. It is true that Europe has had a lot more war on its soil, and more recently, and those seem to be events that are catalysts for change good and bad. But I'd guess the main reasons are actually 1) federalism, and 2) a more optimistic society. Federalism defuses change and political energy to many different levels... it's less important something changes structurally in the Constitution when the states themselves also extremely important and posses much of the political authority and legitimacy in America. The second is the often mocked-by-those-who-don't-share-it American optimism and future looking tendencies. Americans still by and large believe they can improve their own situation and are not merely victims of circumstance. Therefore it's less important to reform the system fundamentally. It's easier, and smarter, to change yourself. To go with this, Americans are forgetful, and move on from bad times quickly, it's also why we forgive our politicians for so many seemingly ridiculous faux pas or just straight up mistakes. There's less focus on the past than the future. To me it seems like the slow erosion of these two things are actually part of what is wrong in this country. "Diversity is our strength" but maybe not in exactly the same way most people who use that phrase mean it. + Show Spoiler +Note: as usual, I don't like generalizing all Americans and try to avoid the phrase "average American" when at all possible but I don't really see a way around it here. Yes, but that's a circular argument. Things have been going well so people are more optimistic. If things had gone to the shitter, you'd have a less optimistic society. For real world examples, talk to anyone from Eastern Europe about the optimism in their societies. I was going to wait for Zero, but I'll just say that I'm not sure that's quite correct. First, I'm sure it's true that good times breed optimism. But that doesn't seem circular. Second, the curious thing we are trying to explain is why America doesn't change despite the problems people think it has. Now, perhaps it's true that things actually aren't that bad, but we've assumed they are for the sake of this discussion. I don't think things are as bad as many on the left and even some on the right say they are, espeically considering the rough and tumble sort of history this country has just in it's own internal affairs. But at the same time, people are more worried about the future now then they were at the end of the cold war, for instance. Even if the slope is more gradual it still feels like it's going downhill. So I don't think it's fallacious tot think that if the system worked in the past, that we shouldn't just give up on it in the future. But maybe that's just because I am a conservative
I was thinking on it and thank you for trying to wait haha. Sorry it took me a bit to form the words I wanted to use.
So the way I see it, is that while we as American's do have this "optimism" and forward thinking approach to a lot of things, it is pretty much confined to certain sectors of industries and facets of life. You can find that hope springs eternal in a lot of demographics if you canvass the country. I myself have some speck of hope that the future turns out better. But at the same time, I think it's the entrenched ideologies of the politics that keeps America from being even further. Can you imagine, for a brief moment, what good would come if we had UBI or universal healthcare? The amount of creativity it would foster to solve problems, big and small, that plague the world if people weren't worried about the next meal or rent payment? Or if they can save enough for their children to have some kind of future?
There are a multitude of anecdotal answers we can derive but I think sticking to a premise of "America won't change because it hasn't gotten as bad as (insert past historical grievances that resulted in massive upheaval and change of the system) is a good way to move forward. I mean, the pandemic didn't create anything substantial that we can look at and say "See, Americans can come together to solve XYZ". The biggest thing I took from the pandemic on an environmental scale is that air quality got better. But it also seemed to manifest some ugliness in others (mainly masking and thinking the governments were overreaching with mandates/closures/etc).
Is it federalism that stunts the change? Or is it American ignorance of the potential of a brighter future? We always look to the Nordic regions and parts of Europe as examples. But how does one convince Americans that adaptation of those societies, with that good old American twist, is worth investing time to think about?
Sorry if that isn't clear. I can try to elaborate if needed.
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On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing.
Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson".
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On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson".
Biden is already talking with Qatar about supplying gas to Europe. It is February. The US could make their gas a really sweet deal just to get Europe through the last bit of Winter. Forgive my ignorance, but does Europe still use lots of gas other than Winter?
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On February 13 2022 11:39 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Biden is already talking with Qatar about supplying gas to Europe. It is February. The US could make their gas a really sweet deal just to get Europe through the last bit of Winter. Forgive my ignorance, but does Europe still use lots of gas other than Winter?
With the new emphasis on climate change and curtailing the development of fossil fuels in favour of renewables I doubt Biden is in a position to suddenly change course and pursue major natural gas developments.
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On February 13 2022 11:39 Mohdoo wrote:
Forgive my ignorance, but does Europe still use lots of gas other than Winter?
The non-cold months are when the Europe has to put enough gas into storage to be able to have enough to last the winter. The amount of gas you need for that can be up to something like a third of annual EU gas consumption.
All in all it pretty much balances out on an annual basis.
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On February 13 2022 08:58 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 08:15 gobbledydook wrote:
I think a President of a country should have three main goals:
1. Keep the country running
2. Advocate for a vision of the country and push the country in that direction
1) Trump evidently didn't do 1 well at all. But I think he did 2 quite effectively it's just that many of us would consider the vision to be fundamentally wrong.
2) Biden is not keeping the country running properly. There have been other posts describing this so I will not go into details.
3) Biden has not effectively advocated for the change he wants to see. There are people on the left who are quite effective - take AOC for example. People are listening to AOC in a way that Biden isn't. Going to disagree on this. He has been very clear on what he wants - business as usual.
Well - business as usual is hardly a vision - if you want to run on 'business as usual' you had better ensure business is as usual. Which clearly it is not. The pandemic is still not over, despite Biden's efforts. Inflation is going up and people are concerned. Crime is going up in many cities. You can argue, and probably objectively correctly, that this is mostly not Biden's fault, but voters don't really care, all they see is the country not getting any better and they will vote against Biden.
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On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson".
Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
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On February 13 2022 11:39 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Biden is already talking with Qatar about supplying gas to Europe. It is February. The US could make their gas a really sweet deal just to get Europe through the last bit of Winter. Forgive my ignorance, but does Europe still use lots of gas other than Winter?
It's a bit more than just winter, maybe 5 months a year but as LL said you need to then build up storage so it's at maximum capacity come mid-fall.
On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
You're looking at this from a very news headlines perspective. If all it takes is a tank parade to make us shoot ourselves in the foot, is that bravery? There won't be any pre-emptive drastic measures.
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On February 13 2022 09:11 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 04:42 Introvert wrote:edit: re why is America supposedly more conservative eh, without giving it too much thought I'd say that while maybe that idea [has been on top too long] is a contributing factor, I'm not sure it's the main reason. I don't even know if it's that important, since the comparison seems most obviously drawn with western European democracies. It is true that Europe has had a lot more war on its soil, and more recently, and those seem to be events that are catalysts for change good and bad. But I'd guess the main reasons are actually 1) federalism, and 2) a more optimistic society. Federalism defuses change and political energy to many different levels... it's less important something changes structurally in the Constitution when the states themselves also extremely important and posses much of the political authority and legitimacy in America. The second is the often mocked-by-those-who-don't-share-it American optimism and future looking tendencies. Americans still by and large believe they can improve their own situation and are not merely victims of circumstance. Therefore it's less important to reform the system fundamentally. It's easier, and smarter, to change yourself. To go with this, Americans are forgetful, and move on from bad times quickly, it's also why we forgive our politicians for so many seemingly ridiculous faux pas or just straight up mistakes. There's less focus on the past than the future. To me it seems like the slow erosion of these two things are actually part of what is wrong in this country. "Diversity is our strength" but maybe not in exactly the same way most people who use that phrase mean it. + Show Spoiler +Note: as usual, I don't like generalizing all Americans and try to avoid the phrase "average American" when at all possible but I don't really see a way around it here. Yes, but that's a circular argument. Things have been going well so people are more optimistic. If things had gone to the shitter, you'd have a less optimistic society. For real world examples, talk to anyone from Eastern Europe about the optimism in their societies.
I think some peculiar American beliefs, combined with too much success and abundance in the past century, has created a self perpetuating loop. I don't know if it's Protestant in origin but our society views work as the highest virtue, and believes success is determined primarily by how hard one works. We judge individuals this way but I'm sure it also applies to how we view countries. The US reaping the benefits of wars and globalized economies and paying few of the costs relative to other countries has solidified those beliefs. I think our "conservatism" is mostly just a manifestation of this. We view wealth and power as earned and deserved, and likewise the lack of them as also deserved.
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This recent episode of Waking Up was quite interesting in terms of the current state of Democracy / Trump.
wakingup.libsyn.com
Harris talks with Anne Applebaum, David Frum, Barton Gellman, and George Packer. If you aren't a fan of Harris, just skip his elongated intro to 12:40. The guests speak 90% of the time and offer great insights. As someone who didn't consider Jan6 to be an actual insurrection, it was nice to hear well reasoned arguments that it was, + Show Spoiler +(I still think lying about the election from day1 is completely beyond the pale,).
I really liked Anne's position on creating inroads within the two party system.
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On February 13 2022 10:29 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 10:04 Introvert wrote:On February 13 2022 09:11 EnDeR_ wrote:On February 13 2022 04:42 Introvert wrote:edit: re why is America supposedly more conservative eh, without giving it too much thought I'd say that while maybe that idea [has been on top too long] is a contributing factor, I'm not sure it's the main reason. I don't even know if it's that important, since the comparison seems most obviously drawn with western European democracies. It is true that Europe has had a lot more war on its soil, and more recently, and those seem to be events that are catalysts for change good and bad. But I'd guess the main reasons are actually 1) federalism, and 2) a more optimistic society. Federalism defuses change and political energy to many different levels... it's less important something changes structurally in the Constitution when the states themselves also extremely important and posses much of the political authority and legitimacy in America. The second is the often mocked-by-those-who-don't-share-it American optimism and future looking tendencies. Americans still by and large believe they can improve their own situation and are not merely victims of circumstance. Therefore it's less important to reform the system fundamentally. It's easier, and smarter, to change yourself. To go with this, Americans are forgetful, and move on from bad times quickly, it's also why we forgive our politicians for so many seemingly ridiculous faux pas or just straight up mistakes. There's less focus on the past than the future. To me it seems like the slow erosion of these two things are actually part of what is wrong in this country. "Diversity is our strength" but maybe not in exactly the same way most people who use that phrase mean it. + Show Spoiler +Note: as usual, I don't like generalizing all Americans and try to avoid the phrase "average American" when at all possible but I don't really see a way around it here. Yes, but that's a circular argument. Things have been going well so people are more optimistic. If things had gone to the shitter, you'd have a less optimistic society. For real world examples, talk to anyone from Eastern Europe about the optimism in their societies. I was going to wait for Zero, but I'll just say that I'm not sure that's quite correct. First, I'm sure it's true that good times breed optimism. But that doesn't seem circular. Second, the curious thing we are trying to explain is why America doesn't change despite the problems people think it has. Now, perhaps it's true that things actually aren't that bad, but we've assumed they are for the sake of this discussion. I don't think things are as bad as many on the left and even some on the right say they are, espeically considering the rough and tumble sort of history this country has just in it's own internal affairs. But at the same time, people are more worried about the future now then they were at the end of the cold war, for instance. Even if the slope is more gradual it still feels like it's going downhill. So I don't think it's fallacious tot think that if the system worked in the past, that we shouldn't just give up on it in the future. But maybe that's just because I am a conservative I was thinking on it and thank you for trying to wait haha. Sorry it took me a bit to form the words I wanted to use. So the way I see it, is that while we as American's do have this "optimism" and forward thinking approach to a lot of things, it is pretty much confined to certain sectors of industries and facets of life. You can find that hope springs eternal in a lot of demographics if you canvass the country. I myself have some speck of hope that the future turns out better. But at the same time, I think it's the entrenched ideologies of the politics that keeps America from being even further. Can you imagine, for a brief moment, what good would come if we had UBI or universal healthcare? The amount of creativity it would foster to solve problems, big and small, that plague the world if people weren't worried about the next meal or rent payment? Or if they can save enough for their children to have some kind of future? There are a multitude of anecdotal answers we can derive but I think sticking to a premise of "America won't change because it hasn't gotten as bad as (insert past historical grievances that resulted in massive upheaval and change of the system) is a good way to move forward. I mean, the pandemic didn't create anything substantial that we can look at and say "See, Americans can come together to solve XYZ". The biggest thing I took from the pandemic on an environmental scale is that air quality got better. But it also seemed to manifest some ugliness in others (mainly masking and thinking the governments were overreaching with mandates/closures/etc). Is it federalism that stunts the change? Or is it American ignorance of the potential of a brighter future? We always look to the Nordic regions and parts of Europe as examples. But how does one convince Americans that adaptation of those societies, with that good old American twist, is worth investing time to think about? Sorry if that isn't clear. I can try to elaborate if needed.
This post actually makes me think of the "success breeds optimism" from a different angle. Whether or not everyone here agrees, I'm sure most people have heard the saying that unlike almost every other country on earth, America is a creedal nation. While it obviously had heavy influence from those people and ideas that were most familiar to its founders from before it's inception, at the moment of its creation it was new and unique. If this is true, AND it's true that Americans are more ideological than some of their western counterparts (perhaps the former is somehow the cause of the latter) I suppose I could see the argument that it's ideological back and forth that hampers "progress." I wonder if the relative success and prosperity in some ways drives all these arguments. Over its history America has spent more time arguing and fighting with itself than those outside and perhaps that, combined with racial, geographical, and cultural diversity, means it's simply harder to agree, because there are far too many groups to all agree.
Now to be fair, Madison actually liked this idea of the "extended republic." No one group would be large so they would have to compromise. I view this as a feature, as I am greatly concerned with stopping bad things. It may be that things have to become very bad before enough people agree to compromise for a solution. If I recall my history correctly, at the time of the founding it was believed a republican form of government only really worked for small, homogenous [city] states. Madison thought it could work on a much bigger scale, but maybe he was wrong
But as I said, I am generally a fan of "gridlock" although I suppose a further complication is that having such a high bar for action means that by the time events necessitate action, it's too late to give an issue the thought and cool heads it may require.
But that's a (long) aside. Is America slow to change because of its constitution, or is its constitution slow to change because of Americans? Do they reinforce each other? While I don't agree exactly, I think you may be on to something that ideology really does play a role. So maybe 1) federalism 2) ideological diversity (perhaps a result or at least supported by the federalist system) and 3) an optimistic, forward looking disposition, again maybe driven or reinforced by good times.
Sorry if that was kind meandering, it's getting late (for me).
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On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
If you're so brave, go attack Russia. The only reason people negotiate with Russia right now instead of more drastic measures is because of nuclear arsenal on both sides. Maybe you should read about this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov#Involvement_in_Cuban_Missile_Crisis
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On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
Says the American who never really had a war (non civil war) happen on his own soil in hundreds of years while exporting it all over the world. Of course the Russian attack should be prevented if at all possible. But I would be strongly against solving this through an actual military conflict with German participation. Maybe both sides should take a step back from the Sable rattling in favor of more diplomatic solutions. Even the Ukrainian president has said that Biden should stop over dramatizing and therefore escalating the situation as far as I know.
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On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
It's a nightmare. War with Russia may be my biggest fear. When i did my military service in 2000, cold war protocol was still in effect and i worked in morse code reconaissance. FYI:+ Show Spoiler +In case of full blown nuclear war and EMP destroying electronics, the fastest global communication method to reestablish quickly was morse signals, that's why it was kept in place as a backup and people were trained. It could still be a thing, i'm not sure
First of all those military exercises are a regular thing. We usually knew a couple months in advance, because everybody had to do double shifts for a week, this is different because of the size. Timing wise it's not unusual, no matter the political climate, the Russians will do their exercise. They don't care.
In case of the war getting hot, my life expectancy was 3 minutes and 30 seconds, as i worked in a first target installation. Me, my family and everybody i love live in the Fulda gap which would have been the main nuclear battlefield. Everything and everyone i know would be destroyed/dead.
So sorry for not being that brave and confrontational, i must admit i'm a bit of a coward when mid range nuclear missiles are pointed at my head, as i don't even have time to get shelter and most likely won't even get a warning.
I still have hope, they won't invade. Putin will still be the winner. He could further discredit western media and polititians and accuse them of fearmongering.
That being said, yesterday evening Germany advised its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately as well. 
Edit: Oops wrong year for the military service.
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On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders?
Sanctions have not worked so far and should not be expected to work. Russia has been heavily sanctioned since the Crimea annexation and it has not changed Putin's calculations.
Really the only ways to avoid an invasion of Ukraine are capitulation or war. Since war with a nuclear power is a terrible idea, it seems capitulation is the only other solution.
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On February 13 2022 18:11 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2022 12:03 Sermokala wrote:On February 13 2022 11:35 Dan HH wrote:On February 13 2022 10:05 Sermokala wrote:
I would also like to note that every day that passes makes the threat of Russian gas being cut off becomes weaker and weaker.
Biden can use the summer and campaign season to whip the country, especially the natural gas producing areas that votes republican normally, to prepare to become the new supplier of gas to Europe.
Jesus just thinking that makes me realize that rattling the saber so hard is incredibly well timed for biden. If he can cut off Russia and become the supplier to Europe he can cripple the bear and deliver a major economic boom to the nation that would carry the democrats to more than a decade of dominance.
If Russia backs down he's gets to take a victory lap as the man who made putin back down and defended freedom and democracy. He would have in one fell swoop united the western world under the leadership of the united states and brought back the credibility of the president of the United States being the leader of the free world that his opponents tore down.
Fuck America man we're the crazy guy in the room with a gun they're not afraid to just start firing. Natural gas prices are already a sore political point in most of Europe, no government is gonna go "hey guys, you know how you're all really upset about your heating bills? yeah we're gonna double that by replacing piped gas imports from Russia with LNG from the US to teach them a lesson". Are europians really okay with being cowards and watching, in graphic detail, the deaths of Ukrainians as the Russian war machine gets ever closer to their borders? Sanctions have not worked so far and should not be expected to work. Russia has been heavily sanctioned since the Crimea annexation and it has not changed Putin's calculations. Really the only ways to avoid an invasion of Ukraine are capitulation or war. Since war with a nuclear power is a terrible idea, it seems capitulation is the only other solution.
Sanctions are a matter of degree, not a binary switch.
If for hypothetical example, Putin had reason to believe that the entire EU, UK and US would completely (as far as can be regulated) stop all trade with Russia, bar its citizens from entry, and seize every Russian asset they could, there's not a chance in hell he'd invade.
I don't believe that level of coordinated non-violent response would ever happen, but at least in theory there are more options IMO.
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By the way, I just want to share anti-corruption investigations by Navalny and his team: https://www.youtube.com/c/АлексейНавальный
Once you watch these videos (they have EN subtitles), you'll likely realise how incredibly corrupt senior Russian politicians are. Relation to the Ukraine crisis is, you can't trust a word they say like "it's western hysteria", "we won't invade", etc. I probably don't need to persuade any of people here since it's western community, but if there is media you should be skeptical of, that's Russian state media for sure.
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EPT
