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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3221

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

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ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
9052 Posts
May 14 2021 16:30 GMT
#64401
Does anyone think the Israel and Palestine conflict is going to escalate into full war soon?
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4751 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-14 17:08:46
May 14 2021 17:06 GMT
#64402
Full war with whom? Palestine isnt capable of waging war against Israel. Its more akin to uprising/militant strike than anything, its asymmetrical conflict in which one side is vastly superior to the other. One side is trying to hurt civilians because they cant match their oponent militarily and the other is trying to target militants because of publicity.

If the question really is "whether or not things are going to escalate" then the answer is "yes, i think they will".
Pathetic Greta hater.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43964 Posts
May 14 2021 18:16 GMT
#64403
On May 15 2021 02:06 Silvanel wrote:
Full war with whom? Palestine isnt capable of waging war against Israel. Its more akin to uprising/militant strike than anything, its asymmetrical conflict in which one side is vastly superior to the other. One side is trying to hurt civilians because they cant match their oponent militarily and the other is trying to target militants because of publicity.

If the question really is "whether or not things are going to escalate" then the answer is "yes, i think they will".

I don’t think it’s fair to describe Israel as only targeting militants because that ignores the reality that in peacetime Israel is bulldozing homes for settlements. If there were no militants then armed Israeli forces would still be destroying the homes of Palestinian of civilians. That’s why the conflict is happening. Both sides are targeting civilians.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-14 19:15:55
May 14 2021 18:49 GMT
#64404
On May 15 2021 01:30 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Does anyone think the Israel and Palestine conflict is going to escalate into full war soon?

Depends what you mean by a full war. What's the point when you would delineate between a "conflict" a "war" and a "full war". Military actions have been taken and actions of warfare have been undertaken. It is already a war. It's not like it can be claimed that the actions of Isreal was undertaken without the knowledge or support of its government or that the Isreali military is decentralised.
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4751 Posts
May 14 2021 19:29 GMT
#64405
On May 15 2021 03:16 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2021 02:06 Silvanel wrote:
Full war with whom? Palestine isnt capable of waging war against Israel. Its more akin to uprising/militant strike than anything, its asymmetrical conflict in which one side is vastly superior to the other. One side is trying to hurt civilians because they cant match their oponent militarily and the other is trying to target militants because of publicity.

If the question really is "whether or not things are going to escalate" then the answer is "yes, i think they will".

I don’t think it’s fair to describe Israel as only targeting militants because that ignores the reality that in peacetime Israel is bulldozing homes for settlements. If there were no militants then armed Israeli forces would still be destroying the homes of Palestinian of civilians. That’s why the conflict is happening. Both sides are targeting civilians.


Well to some degree of course. Isreal is known for destroying homes of suicide bombers and militants, agressive settlments, retaliatory strikes etc. They are willing to accept civilian casulties that thing is sure. But they are not targeting civilians as goal per se, not the way for example germans used to target polish or russian population in WWII.
Pathetic Greta hater.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43964 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-14 19:38:58
May 14 2021 19:38 GMT
#64406
On May 15 2021 04:29 Silvanel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2021 03:16 KwarK wrote:
On May 15 2021 02:06 Silvanel wrote:
Full war with whom? Palestine isnt capable of waging war against Israel. Its more akin to uprising/militant strike than anything, its asymmetrical conflict in which one side is vastly superior to the other. One side is trying to hurt civilians because they cant match their oponent militarily and the other is trying to target militants because of publicity.

If the question really is "whether or not things are going to escalate" then the answer is "yes, i think they will".

I don’t think it’s fair to describe Israel as only targeting militants because that ignores the reality that in peacetime Israel is bulldozing homes for settlements. If there were no militants then armed Israeli forces would still be destroying the homes of Palestinian of civilians. That’s why the conflict is happening. Both sides are targeting civilians.


Well to some degree of course. Isreal is known for destroying homes of suicide bombers and militants, agressive settlments, retaliatory strikes etc. They are willing to accept civilian casulties that thing is sure. But they are not targeting civilians as goal per se, not the way for example germans used to target polish or russian population in WWII.

They are targeting civilians per se, though not like the Einsatzgruppen. They’re not rolling into a village and making the villagers dig a mass grave, nobody is alleging that. But they are destroying the homes of Palestinians, forcing them from their land, building an Israeli settlement on that land, and then presenting it as a fait accompli whenever anyone complains.

They’ve learned that once you get an Israeli civilian in a home nobody will make them evict them from that land and return it to the previous owners. Whenever anyone suggests it it gets compared to giving America back to Native Americans or something equally absurd as if the old owner isn’t still alive and the new owner didn’t just move in.

Palestine and the Palestinian people are being systematically eroded. Civilians are the target here. Just because they’re not being lined up and shot doesn’t mean they’re not a target. They’re not getting protection under the law, that’s why the militants have such support. When Palestinian militants destroy the homes of Israeli civilians it’s not viewed as a terror attack, it’s viewed as justice. Israel isn’t just accidentally destroying houses while targeting militants, it’s deliberately targeting civilians for displacement and replacement.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4751 Posts
May 14 2021 20:41 GMT
#64407
Yeah that all true. Still i stand by what i said. My first post here about that issue was that "it is mainly about land".
Pathetic Greta hater.
MWY
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany284 Posts
May 14 2021 21:05 GMT
#64408
On May 15 2021 04:38 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2021 04:29 Silvanel wrote:
On May 15 2021 03:16 KwarK wrote:
On May 15 2021 02:06 Silvanel wrote:
Full war with whom? Palestine isnt capable of waging war against Israel. Its more akin to uprising/militant strike than anything, its asymmetrical conflict in which one side is vastly superior to the other. One side is trying to hurt civilians because they cant match their oponent militarily and the other is trying to target militants because of publicity.

If the question really is "whether or not things are going to escalate" then the answer is "yes, i think they will".

I don’t think it’s fair to describe Israel as only targeting militants because that ignores the reality that in peacetime Israel is bulldozing homes for settlements. If there were no militants then armed Israeli forces would still be destroying the homes of Palestinian of civilians. That’s why the conflict is happening. Both sides are targeting civilians.


Well to some degree of course. Isreal is known for destroying homes of suicide bombers and militants, agressive settlments, retaliatory strikes etc. They are willing to accept civilian casulties that thing is sure. But they are not targeting civilians as goal per se, not the way for example germans used to target polish or russian population in WWII.

They are targeting civilians per se, though not like the Einsatzgruppen. They’re not rolling into a village and making the villagers dig a mass grave, nobody is alleging that. But they are destroying the homes of Palestinians, forcing them from their land, building an Israeli settlement on that land, and then presenting it as a fait accompli whenever anyone complains.

They’ve learned that once you get an Israeli civilian in a home nobody will make them evict them from that land and return it to the previous owners. Whenever anyone suggests it it gets compared to giving America back to Native Americans or something equally absurd as if the old owner isn’t still alive and the new owner didn’t just move in.

Palestine and the Palestinian people are being systematically eroded. Civilians are the target here. Just because they’re not being lined up and shot doesn’t mean they’re not a target. They’re not getting protection under the law, that’s why the militants have such support. When Palestinian militants destroy the homes of Israeli civilians it’s not viewed as a terror attack, it’s viewed as justice. Israel isn’t just accidentally destroying houses while targeting militants, it’s deliberately targeting civilians for displacement and replacement.


In a war context, everybody reading about targeting civilians understands intentionally killing civilians. What you say is technically not wrong, but by saying both sides are targeting civilians you are somewhat equalizing two very different things.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 14 2021 22:55 GMT
#64409
--- Nuked ---
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
May 15 2021 06:54 GMT
#64410
I tend to compare the Israel-Palestine situation to the West Side Story, taking place on a much larger scale. They've long reached a point where right or wrong aren't the main things to consider. It's become a matter of survival on both sides, and the ones suffering the most in the conflict are innocent people.

I think one of the purposes of the attacks on the State of Israel and Jewish citizens is to make the citizens suffer to such a degree that they no longer support their own government, and as a result demand a different direction on a number of matters, including evictions, Gaza, religious freedom, and more.
The Israeli government however doesn't appear to be too phased by the attacks, so I'm not expecting anything to come from any of this. What should the government do? While it certainly has quite a record of misdeeds, it's not exactly like their main foe (Hamas) is a peace-loving group of diplomats. The attacks are considered pure acts of terrorism, and that'd mean any sort of negotiation is out of the question. But I somehow doubt Hamas see it that way, considering the history of displacement of Palestinian Arabs.

I don't envy the people who are trying to work towards a peaceful resolution to this conflict. It's one big mess.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-15 13:38:55
May 15 2021 13:27 GMT
#64411
It's not a matter of survival that Isreal is forcefully colonising the West Bank. Isreal has won a long time ago. The only matter of survival is on the Palestinian side as they are they only ones who are being displaced and blockaded and utterly helpless to prevent it.

Isreal won in 1967 and since that time is the greatest military force in the area, more powerful than the rest of its neighbours combined. Meanwhile the Gaza Strip has essentially been blockaded by Isreal for years. The IDF yesterday dropped 80 tons of explosives in one day. What does Hamas have in comparison? The power disparity is vastly greater than USA vs Iraq. The West Bank isn't even a contiguous area anymore, it has been divided into segments as Isreal pleases.
Erasme
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Bahamas15899 Posts
May 15 2021 14:44 GMT
#64412
Removing Netanyahu would be a step in the right direction, the man is mad with power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7lxwFEB6FI “‘Drain the swamp’? Stupid saying, means nothing, but you guys loved it so I kept saying it.”
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 15 2021 14:46 GMT
#64413
--- Nuked ---
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France8074 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-15 14:52:24
May 15 2021 14:51 GMT
#64414
On May 15 2021 22:27 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
It's not a matter of survival that Isreal is forcefully colonising the West Bank. Isreal has won a long time ago. The only matter of survival is on the Palestinian side as they are they only ones who are being displaced and blockaded and utterly helpless to prevent it.

Isreal won in 1967 and since that time is the greatest military force in the area, more powerful than the rest of its neighbours combined. Meanwhile the Gaza Strip has essentially been blockaded by Isreal for years. The IDF yesterday dropped 80 tons of explosives in one day. What does Hamas have in comparison? The power disparity is vastly greater than USA vs Iraq. The West Bank isn't even a contiguous area anymore, it has been divided into segments as Isreal pleases.

To have been in Israel several times and having had an israeli girlfriend for a while, I can testify that the Israeli have a siege mentality and see their country as a threatened island in an ocean of hostile neighbours. It’s not particularly rational.

Also, the people I met were completely traumatized by the second intifada. They were children when buses were exploding right and left and grew up with a reaction of fear when an arab would board the bus.

My view has been since then that the only hope is international pressure on Israel, and a radical change from the US. I think the intifada has broken the last hopes for a peace not dictated to Israel from abroad. Too many people there see the palestinians as an ennemy and a danger against whom any will to compromise is a mortal weakness.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14110 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-15 16:08:24
May 15 2021 16:07 GMT
#64415
People expect a peace dictated to the area by an outside power but no one in the world wants to get into a decades long occupation and rebuilding effort for no gain. China would probably care the least about it's soldiers and money but even they want to avoid the region completely if they can. They saw what America tried to do in Iraq and Afghanistan and want nothing to do with the solution.

I don't know what a "good" outcome even looks like anymore
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11822 Posts
May 15 2021 16:46 GMT
#64416
Yeah, that is the big problem. Basically the only "good" outcome for the region which i can come up with is either inventing a time machine and prevent the upfucking of everything after WW2 (or even earlier). Or everyone in the region simultaneously recognizing that the status quo is fucked up and idiotically broken, and constructively working together with their previous enemies in a trusting relationship to build a solution that is fair for everyone.

I don't know which one of these two is less likely.
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10142 Posts
May 15 2021 17:18 GMT
#64417
On May 15 2021 15:54 Magic Powers wrote:

I think one of the purposes of the attacks on the State of Israel and Jewish citizens is to make the citizens suffer to such a degree that they no longer support their own government, and as a result demand a different direction on a number of matters, including evictions, Gaza, religious freedom, and more.

I doubt it. Terror attack themselves won't give that result but the oppossite. They are mostly propaganda for recruitment and keep the movement alive.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France8074 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-05-15 17:42:32
May 15 2021 17:42 GMT
#64418
On May 16 2021 02:18 Godwrath wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2021 15:54 Magic Powers wrote:

I think one of the purposes of the attacks on the State of Israel and Jewish citizens is to make the citizens suffer to such a degree that they no longer support their own government, and as a result demand a different direction on a number of matters, including evictions, Gaza, religious freedom, and more.

I doubt it. Terror attack themselves won't give that result but the oppossite. They are mostly propaganda for recruitment and keep the movement alive.

Yeah terror attacks have cemented a generation of israeli into the belief that palestinians were the ennemy and a mortal threat. The second Intifada has basically buried all perspective of a peaceful solution to the conflict in our lifetime.

In that regard, the palestinian leadership has historically been amazing at shooting themselves in the foot. Every bus full of children and every coffee shop that has been bombed has been putting Palestinians one step further from getting treated fairly.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 15 2021 18:24 GMT
#64419
--- Nuked ---
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
May 15 2021 21:29 GMT
#64420
Of course Hamas don't want peace. But they do want Israel to remove its grip on Gaza and to stop evictions, etc.
They're currently in the process of gaining complete political control over Gaza. Their attacks are motivated by that, although not only that.
What Israel has been doing to Gaza over the decades is a direct consequence of its legitimate fear of groups like Hamas. They have enemies from different directions and from within, despite not all of those having direct ties to one another. Their air defense system isn't perfect, an estimated 10-25% of rockets or missiles get through, and the technology of the attackers is improving.
Hamas with their attacks have an effect on the leadership and direction of the Israeli government. They benefit from an overly aggressive leadership as much as from a weakened one. What Hamas don't want is for Israel to act in a way that would definitively paint Hamas as the only group in the whole conflict that's in the wrong, unless that gives them a realistic chance to reclaim the lost land, which at this moment is unrealistic (and they most likely know that).
Knowing that Israel's situation is so delicate motivates Hamas to continue their efforts. They also know that Israel moving into Gaza to end the conflict is a bad decision, even though Israel would certainly come out victorious, it'd also come at too great of a cost, and Israel can't afford to weaken itself this much knowing they still have other enemies to worry about.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
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