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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2680

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

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Shingi11
Profile Joined May 2016
290 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 20:59:45
September 27 2020 20:57 GMT
#53581
I wonder how trump game plan changes if he is not winning on election night as it look like that is how it going to be at this moment. Biden has been holding a steady and strong lead for months now but we all know how crazy the home stretch can get. Getting the courts that he has stacked to overturn election results can only work if he is winning on election night right? Does he still just argue that he is the winner even if he is behind. Has he impaled enough lackeys on the courts that they will go for that.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22638 Posts
September 27 2020 21:03 GMT
#53582
On September 28 2020 05:57 Shingi11 wrote:
I wonder how trump game plan changes if he is not winning on election night as it look like that is how it going to be at this moment. Biden has been holding a steady and strong lead for months now but we all know how crazy the home stretch can get. Getting the courts that he has stacked to overturn election results can only work if he is winning on election night right? Does he still just argue that he is the winner even if he is behind. Has he impaled enough lackeys on the courts that they will go for that.
Hope/cause mail in ballots to get screwed up, contest results. Try and get Republican states to overwrite the voting process and appoint their own electors because the results are in dispute (I kinda doubt they are willing to do this).
Hope all this is enough to win the electoral vote, if not get on a plane heading for Russia Jan 18th.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 21:28:42
September 27 2020 21:27 GMT
#53583
On September 28 2020 00:11 WombaT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2020 21:31 Danglars wrote:
On September 27 2020 21:02 Wegandi wrote:
On September 27 2020 20:54 WombaT wrote:
@Taelshin, much ground to make up. Teletubby showed me me posting stats and what I’d thought was a year hiatus was like three and a half!

@Wegandi not all diversity training is well-designed, or particularly useful, absolutely. Plus you’ll have two cohorts where resentment is bred, people who know these things already and think it’s a waste of their time, or others more skeptical or hostile to the need for such measures, who will feel likewise.

That said the term diversity training refers to well, quite a diverse set of things.

The intent on pulling back on such things is important and instructive. There’s a world of difference between acknowledging there’s a problem but this is an ineffective solution that needs looked at, to fuck minority sensibilities, everything is fine, and various junctures in between. The issue with say, Trump would be that even if diversity training had proved widely, widely successful he’d still want rid of it.

I’d be interested to hear this diatribe on the minimum wage, should spark some fine discussion!


And this folks is why evidence is irrelevant when it comes to politics or policies. It doesn't matter that something doesn't work. It's about intent and feelings. Folks will even acknowledge that said policy or program is harmful, but will rationalize it anyways. The data was clear. Diversity training is a sure-fire way to get folks to turn away from what it is trying to do.

That's generally why right-wing programs or policies don't yield to some "the science says it doesn't work and is actually counterproductive." The corresponding left-wing policies can have the same deficits, but defenders like WombaT will always retreat to some combination of "the particular program wasn't defined well//failed for reason of the people enacting it" or dissemble to some "well, what you're referring to is so broad a topic that you can't conclusively say some 0.1% didn't work among the 99.9% that did harm." They're quite willing to question the evidence that it works on perspectives they disagree with, but will refuse to do so for perspectives nearer their own.

Such as? My post earlier was rather brief, pajoondies more well articulated my particular position on diversity training.

It being counter-productive makes sense to me as the tendency of any privileged group towards any kind of move to making environments more neutral tends to be rather negative.

Aside from that phenomena, I don’t see how tacking a few training programs can particularly counteract decades of experience and attitudes imposed by wider culture, so it not being effective doesn’t exactly surprise me.

Had you been a malicious individual intent on sowing division, I have the expectation that you would respond the same. The diversity training didn't work. The people saying it's counter-productive are just reacting to a loss of actual privilege. All the while large group of people (let's say white people) are taunt to identify as their race and start to grow in resentment towards whoever's making them say they're complicit in racism and are racist themselves.

That's one of the troubles with nice-sounding programs and reacting simply based on their names. Of course, any program that actually worsens the problem it's going in to solve will say: they lack time and resources, the hurdles they're attempting to overcome are just too large, the people complaining are deficient due to privilege or disposition. I am not surprised in the least to your reaction, WombaT. I hear it all the time when conservatives critique one liberal sacred cow or another. I think much of today's politics misidentifies good intentions, and fails to appreciate (and I mean *really* fails to appreciate) how much harm and regression is done with the good intentions of the participants. I'm not really trying to single out WombaT for a trend I find to be generally the case.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
September 27 2020 21:30 GMT
#53584
On September 28 2020 05:57 Shingi11 wrote:
I wonder how trump game plan changes if he is not winning on election night as it look like that is how it going to be at this moment. Biden has been holding a steady and strong lead for months now but we all know how crazy the home stretch can get. Getting the courts that he has stacked to overturn election results can only work if he is winning on election night right? Does he still just argue that he is the winner even if he is behind. Has he impaled enough lackeys on the courts that they will go for that.

If his advisors are smart, they'll be telling him he'll be an icon for decades in the future conceding once the votes are in and smiling at the three judicial nominees he got on the Supreme Court. Do yourself a favor and ask a conservative today if they'd trade a single-term Trump presidency for 3 originalist supreme court justices.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 21:38:47
September 27 2020 21:35 GMT
#53585
The problem is that Trump’s reason to hold onto the presidency for as long as possible is to avoid legal strife. It’s his single shield against all of the garbage that is going to come his way come after the presidency.

NYT actually got hold of his tax returns just now. They’re all predictably awful and hold a lot of bad implications for him if he loses in November and doesn’t have the shield of a Republican senate.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 21:49:56
September 27 2020 21:42 GMT
#53586
As gorsameth said.

These elections are not something to look forward to. What course of action would prevent polarization to increase even more up to the point where society will virtually break down? Either side winning with a clear margin would help but that doesnt seem likely at this point.
The support for blm and the protests has decreased but if trump wins in a controversial way (either suspected fraud or by the court) then i doubt even many moderate democrats in the middle will simply accept it. The protests will become much larger then they have been thus far and then what,send in the military? Thats not feasonable if there is millions of people protestesting.
Biden winning and trump not accepting defeat because he suspects fraud, but then not able to turn it around in court also doesnt seem like a particular attractive outcome at this point. I honestly wonder if there is any way in which this can end well. Right now it looks like complete chaos will break out after the elections.
It could still end relativly well i guess but its difficult to see how.

What danglars said is true,i guess the republican establishment is more then satisfied with what they have gained from trump thus far. But there might still be things to gain from a 2nd term,mostly when it comes to foreign policy.
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
September 27 2020 21:47 GMT
#53587
On September 28 2020 06:35 StalkerTL wrote:
The problem is that Trump’s reason to hold onto the presidency for as long as possible is to avoid legal strife. It’s his single shield against all of the garbage that is going to come his way come after the presidency.

NYT actually got hold of his tax returns just now. They’re all predictably awful and hold a lot of bad implications for him if he loses in November and doesn’t have the shield of a Republican senate.

In 2016 he paid $750 in tax, in 2017 he paid 750 in tax.
Pathetic. Goes to show what a literal loser he is.
© Current year.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom10006 Posts
September 27 2020 21:51 GMT
#53588
On September 28 2020 06:47 CorsairHero wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2020 06:35 StalkerTL wrote:
The problem is that Trump’s reason to hold onto the presidency for as long as possible is to avoid legal strife. It’s his single shield against all of the garbage that is going to come his way come after the presidency.

NYT actually got hold of his tax returns just now. They’re all predictably awful and hold a lot of bad implications for him if he loses in November and doesn’t have the shield of a Republican senate.

In 2016 he paid $750 in tax, in 2017 he paid 750 in tax.
Pathetic. Goes to show what a literal loser he is.

A true dedicated public servant.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22638 Posts
September 27 2020 21:52 GMT
#53589
On September 28 2020 06:30 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 28 2020 05:57 Shingi11 wrote:
I wonder how trump game plan changes if he is not winning on election night as it look like that is how it going to be at this moment. Biden has been holding a steady and strong lead for months now but we all know how crazy the home stretch can get. Getting the courts that he has stacked to overturn election results can only work if he is winning on election night right? Does he still just argue that he is the winner even if he is behind. Has he impaled enough lackeys on the courts that they will go for that.

If his advisors are smart, they'll be telling him he'll be an icon for decades in the future conceding once the votes are in and smiling at the three judicial nominees he got on the Supreme Court. Do yourself a favor and ask a conservative today if they'd trade a single-term Trump presidency for 3 originalist supreme court justices.
Right now Trump's main focus is avoiding the avalanche of legal issues he faces the moment he loses his Presidential immunity and the DoJ stops acting as his personal lawyers.
He isn't in this to be an icon for conservatives when he needs to worry about his own immediate future.

If Biden is ahead far enough on election night that there is no hope he might concede. But it ends the same way imo, with him on a plane leaving the country before his term is over.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 21:56:10
September 27 2020 21:55 GMT
#53590
I also love how Trump basically got Ivanka to steal money from the company so he could magnify the loss. Hunter Biden wishes he was that good at self dealing.

Examining the Trump Organization’s tax records, a curious pattern emerges: Between 2010 and 2018, Mr. Trump wrote off some $26 million in unexplained “consulting fees” as a business expense across nearly all of his projects.

In most cases the fees were roughly one-fifth of his income: In Azerbaijan, Mr. Trump collected $5 million on a hotel deal and reported $1.1 million in consulting fees, while in Dubai it was $3 million with a $630,000 fee, and so on.

Mysterious big payments in business deals can raise red flags, particularly in places where bribes or kickbacks to middlemen are routine. But there is no evidence that Mr. Trump, who mostly licenses his name to other people’s projects and is not involved in securing government approvals, has engaged in such practices.

Rather, there appears to be a closer-to-home explanation for at least some of the fees: Mr. Trump reduced his taxable income by treating a family member as a consultant, and then deducting the fee as a cost of doing business.

The “consultants” are not identified in the tax records. But evidence of this arrangement was gleaned by comparing the confidential tax records to the financial disclosures Ivanka Trump filed when she joined the White House staff in 2017. Ms. Trump reported receiving payments from a consulting company she co-owned, totaling $747,622, that exactly matched consulting fees claimed as tax deductions by the Trump Organization for hotel projects in Vancouver and Hawaii.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
September 27 2020 22:03 GMT
#53591
On September 28 2020 05:57 Shingi11 wrote:
I wonder how trump game plan changes if he is not winning on election night as it look like that is how it going to be at this moment. Biden has been holding a steady and strong lead for months now but we all know how crazy the home stretch can get. Getting the courts that he has stacked to overturn election results can only work if he is winning on election night right? Does he still just argue that he is the winner even if he is behind. Has he impaled enough lackeys on the courts that they will go for that.

He doesn't have a plan if he isn't winning, or at least almost tied on election night.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 27 2020 22:32 GMT
#53592
--- Nuked ---
HelpMeGetBetter
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
United States766 Posts
September 27 2020 22:35 GMT
#53593
On September 28 2020 07:32 JimmiC wrote:
My prediction if the polls continue like they are a lot of Republicans will become never Trumpers again. I don't see many going down with the ship and them doing what they think they need to do to protect their seat and the senate. I'm not sure a bunch will continue to support him when it becomes clear he is not going to win.


I can see Trump dropping out of the race a week before the election. Can't lose the election if you are not in it right?
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32755 Posts
September 27 2020 22:45 GMT
#53594
Hmm, I guess this is our late September Surprise, or an October Surprise come early. Of all the large numbers in that report, I think the one that will resonate the most with on the fence voters is $750. You're not going to change people's minds with his hundreds of millions in debt or the millions he lost or all his schemes to avoid taxes, but if you pay more as a low or middle class taxpayer in income tax than the self-professed billionaire, I think it strikes quite a lot of people as unjust.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 22:57:07
September 27 2020 22:52 GMT
#53595
That NYT article is a long ass read but a few highlights:

The $750 in taxes a year is jaw dropping. Either you believe he's a successful businessman in which case, why the fuck is he paying $750 a year in taxes, or else he's nothing like what he claims to be, a product of wasting billions of dollars inherited from his dad.

In fact, those public filings offer a distorted picture of his financial state, since they simply report revenue, not profit. In 2018, for example, Mr. Trump announced in his disclosure that he had made at least $434.9 million. The tax records deliver a very different portrait of his bottom line: $47.4 million in losses.
...
And within the next four years, more than $300 million in loans — obligations for which he is personally responsible — will come due.
...
At the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla., a flood of new members starting in 2015 allowed him to pocket an additional $5 million a year from the business. At his Doral golf resort near Miami, the roofing materials manufacturer GAF spent at least $1.5 million in 2018 even as its industry was lobbying the Trump administration to roll back “egregious” federal regulations. In 2017, the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association paid at least $397,602 to the Washington hotel, where the group held at least one event during its four-day World Summit in Defense of Persecuted Christians.
...
Mr. Trump has an established track record of stiffing his lenders. But the tax returns reveal that he has failed to pay back far more money than previously known: a total of $287 million since 2010.

StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-27 22:58:57
September 27 2020 22:54 GMT
#53596
Reminder that Wesley Snipes and Nic Cage got done by the IRS for far less than this.

This is hilariously open tax fraud that is only jammed up by the intentionally underfunded IRS and the senate who apparently thinks that someone with tax returns as horrible as this is totally A-OK. Crime is totally OK in America’s idea of the rule of law if you’re politically important, is it surprising that people are responding to the world’s injustice with ever increasing amounts of violence?
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
September 27 2020 22:59 GMT
#53597
Remember that Trump got applauded in 2016 for saying that paying no taxes "made him very smart" at the debates.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22638 Posts
September 27 2020 23:15 GMT
#53598
On September 28 2020 07:45 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Hmm, I guess this is our late September Surprise, or an October Surprise come early. Of all the large numbers in that report, I think the one that will resonate the most with on the fence voters is $750. You're not going to change people's minds with his hundreds of millions in debt or the millions he lost or all his schemes to avoid taxes, but if you pay more as a low or middle class taxpayer in income tax than the self-professed billionaire, I think it strikes quite a lot of people as unjust.
yea no.
Remember, America has no poor people, they are temporary embarrassed millionaires.
And people still on the fence after everything Trump has done, I don't see how his taxes convince them.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Shingi11
Profile Joined May 2016
290 Posts
September 27 2020 23:26 GMT
#53599
Federal income taxes paid in 2017 (jointly with spouse):

Joe Biden - $3,742,974

Kamala Harris - $516,469

Bernie Sanders - $343,882

Elizabeth Warren - $268,484

Donald Trump - $750


Right before the debates too. Just giving biden more fuel for the fire. LIke gorsameth said i dont see this really moving anyone with all the crap trump has done but you have to take a death by a thousand cuts type of strategy. Something is going to break and thankfully the trump administration the gift that keeps on giving
StalkerTL
Profile Joined May 2020
212 Posts
September 27 2020 23:28 GMT
#53600
If polling is accurate, the biggest problem this poses is potentially break undecideds towards Biden and it sucks airtime away from anything that Trump could be using to hit back at Biden.

In theory Trump is running down the clock while down by two touchdowns.
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