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Northern Ireland27403 Posts
On September 02 2020 06:54 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 06:20 Simberto wrote:
I will never get over Trumps way of writing stuff.
Who can write something like "your favorite president, me" and not even mean it as satire? It's such an awkward and shallow way of representing your goals, and such a consistent part of his playbook. It's not just "the left", it's "The radical left". It's not just "This person who wrote a book about me", it's "The Amazing Patriot John Doe and his Future Bestseller "Why Trump is the Greatest". Buy now!" Though the execution is so heavyhanded to make it seem idiotic, it probably overall does him favours, as even people not inclined to dislike Joe Biden probably still subconsciously append "Swampman" or "Sleepy" to the thought when considering. Overall it seems like just a stupider, more classless way of navigating normal politics that I -want- to believe is insulting to the general population of the US, but I'm afraid isn't.
It’s honestly staggering to me that it’s actually possible to communicate like that so frequently and be taken even semi-seriously by anyone. It physically pains me to listen to him, perhaps in part because I know there’s other people sitting around the world thinking this is stirring rhetoric.
Some of his insults are pretty well-crafted I’ll give him that. If they were bolted on to sentence structure that resembled a functional human adult then yeah I could see the sort of everyman thing.
A strange phenomenon indeed. If Trump was one’s immediate superior in the workplace he’s like David Brent on crack, or some newcomer to one’s social circle they’d be a joke, but apparently if he’s the PotUS that’s another kettle of fish.
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I think we are at a point where elections predictions aren't 100% BS. Still really long ways out in the internet age, but here is my projection as of right now.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/Itk7vaT.png)
To make your own, go to https://www.270towin.com/ and set the color palette to "party".
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On September 02 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:I think we are at a point where elections predictions aren't 100% BS. Still really long ways out in the internet age, but here is my projection as of right now. + Show Spoiler +To make your own, go to https://www.270towin.com/ and set the color palette to "party".
Michigan will likely go Blue and Minnesota may flip Red, but otherwise I think you're close.
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United States24799 Posts
Mohdoo an interesting thing about your map is that you have Florida going to the republicans but the democrats winning the electoral college. I think that's pretty unusual.
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On September 02 2020 07:23 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:I think we are at a point where elections predictions aren't 100% BS. Still really long ways out in the internet age, but here is my projection as of right now. To make your own, go to https://www.270towin.com/ and set the color palette to "party". Michigan will likely go Blue and Minnesota may flip Red, but otherwise I think you're close.
Ultimately I think it is more likely MN goes red than MI goes blue. Middle America just has way too big a problem with cultural exchange. I think the progress it feels like Middle America is making just..isn't true. And TBH I don't feel like the signs of cultural progression are all that apparent anyway. You live there, not me, so I have a hard time saying I know better but it is hard to ignore 2016.
On September 02 2020 07:24 micronesia wrote:
Mohdoo an interesting thing about your map is that you have Florida going to the republicans but the democrats winning the electoral college. I think that's pretty unusual.
It is unusual, but I think AZ is becoming more western and Florida is becoming more southern. Our cultural differences are crystallizing in major ways, IMO. That is also why I have so little faith in Middle America.
Edit: I also think there will be a "October surprise" released at the worst possible time against Biden in late October. And I think Middle America will be particularly spooked by whatever they come up with. Barr will likely have some vague connection between Biden and Ukraine, but call it "extremely concerning requiring immediate investigation" and Barr will subpoena Biden or something.
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Northern Ireland27403 Posts
On September 02 2020 07:16 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 06:39 Danglars wrote:
CA libs have already told me that Trump is the worst president ever, but Pence would be worse. Several explanations of the religious angle and bad-but-competent angle are repeated. I had made no progress on the worst-president but not-worse-than-his-vice-president paradox, or rather, that Trump is simultaneously uniquely bad and maybe the country can't endure another 4 years, but he might be followed by someone worse for the country.
But CA is a big liberal bastion, at least on the densely urban parts of the coast, so I can't say the "worse than Trump" is widespread. I do take it as an inevitable event that future Republican presidents will be branded with that epithet to be made to appear radical to some audience. I'm confused to why you think that is a paradox? Trump can be the worst president ever and Pence can worse. It might be easier for you to think with sports. Jack Nicholson was the best golfer ever, until Tiger Woods (Or Hogan was the best until Jack, whatever you like). So the opposite can also be true. Someone was the worst golfer ever until someone was worse. Had they said Trump was the worst possible president then I could understand what you were getting at, but as you have it written it makes perfect sense. I'm not sure I agree with it, there are many ways Pence would be better but there are some pretty important parts where he would likely be worse. I would say something like Trump is a horrible and unquestionably unqualified president, Pence would be another awful choice.
I’m on team Pence 100% Where he is worse, namely his particular brand of Christianity I’m reasonably confident he doesn’t have the ability nor the wider support to impose much of it.
Don’t think he has that wrecking ball/gasoline throwing ability that Trump clearly has and continues to utilise rather liberally.
Unlike Trump, hey I might not agree but I think the guy has some principles too. Trump demonstrably has no particular set of ideals beyond self-aggrandisement, so he will never ever do the right thing if it’s damaging to him in some way.
In a much (much) less polarised society Trump would actually be a good fit to be a President, well, that aspect of his temperament. The guy without particular rigid ideology, who seeks adulation and personal popularity would likely govern on the whims of public opinion and what people wanted.
Of course in a society where it’s getting one 50%ish bloc vs the other and they’re increasingly poles apart it’s very destructive.
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On September 02 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:I think we are at a point where elections predictions aren't 100% BS. Still really long ways out in the internet age, but here is my projection as of right now. + Show Spoiler +To make your own, go to https://www.270towin.com/ and set the color palette to "party".
Was too tempted not to since yours was so close
+ Show Spoiler +
Splitting Maine is actually pretty probable as he did it in 2016.
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On September 02 2020 07:33 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:16 Mohdoo wrote:I think we are at a point where elections predictions aren't 100% BS. Still really long ways out in the internet age, but here is my projection as of right now. + Show Spoiler +To make your own, go to https://www.270towin.com/ and set the color palette to "party". Was too tempted not to since yours was so close + Show Spoiler +Splitting Maine is actually pretty probable as he did it in 2016.
I forgot maine can be split so I agree with your map.
Edit: oh didn't realize we disagree on a few states. nevermind. but I agree with Maine.
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United States24799 Posts
What happens when there is a 269/269 split in the general election?
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beat me to it, but yeah adds some interesting calculations about whether to stick with Biden and who the Senate would put up.
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On September 02 2020 07:40 micronesia wrote:
What happens when there is a 269/269 split in the general election?
The house votes based on state delegates (each state gets 1 vote), so Trump would almost certainly win. It's also possible to avoid by faithless electors, which are more likely in the current era.
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On September 02 2020 07:44 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:40 micronesia wrote:
What happens when there is a 269/269 split in the general election? The house votes based on state delegates (each state gets 1 vote), so Trump would almost certainly win. It's also possible to avoid by faithless electors, which are more likely in the current era.
oh, did not realize that. I think no matter how you slice it, if there is a tie, our country is essentially in ruins.
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On September 02 2020 07:16 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 06:39 Danglars wrote:
CA libs have already told me that Trump is the worst president ever, but Pence would be worse. Several explanations of the religious angle and bad-but-competent angle are repeated. I had made no progress on the worst-president but not-worse-than-his-vice-president paradox, or rather, that Trump is simultaneously uniquely bad and maybe the country can't endure another 4 years, but he might be followed by someone worse for the country.
But CA is a big liberal bastion, at least on the densely urban parts of the coast, so I can't say the "worse than Trump" is widespread. I do take it as an inevitable event that future Republican presidents will be branded with that epithet to be made to appear radical to some audience. I'm confused to why you think that is a paradox? Trump can be the worst president ever and Pence can worse.
It might be easier for you to think with sports. Jack Nicholson was the best golfer ever, until Tiger Woods (Or Hogan was the best until Jack, whatever you like). So the opposite can also be true. Someone was the worst golfer ever until someone was worse. Had they said Trump was the worst possible president then I could understand what you were getting at, but as you have it written it makes perfect sense. I'm not sure I agree with it, there are many ways Pence would be better but there are some pretty important parts where he would likely be worse. I would say something like Trump is a horrible and unquestionably unqualified president, Pence would be another awful choice.
Haha, this is easy to answer. Consider "the worst president ever" versus "the worst president to date". Yes, people have referred to Gretzky or Jordan or whomever as the "best ever" at their respective sports, but these statements are generally understood to be hyperbolic, because they're factually indefensible.
If you were to ignore that hyperbole, then having the worst of all time be followed by someone even worse is paradoxical. I believe Danglars' goal in that line of reasoning is to have people admit that claiming Trump to be the worst ever is hyperbolic, and engage in further discussion from that point.
Literally, trump cannot be the worst president ever and have Pence be even worse.
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On September 02 2020 07:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:44 Nevuk wrote:On September 02 2020 07:40 micronesia wrote:
What happens when there is a 269/269 split in the general election? The house votes based on state delegates (each state gets 1 vote), so Trump would almost certainly win. It's also possible to avoid by faithless electors, which are more likely in the current era. oh, did not realize that. I think no matter how you slice it, if there is a tie, our country is essentially in ruins.
what if the eventual winner has 4 million more popular votes?
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On September 02 2020 08:01 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:46 Mohdoo wrote:On September 02 2020 07:44 Nevuk wrote:On September 02 2020 07:40 micronesia wrote:
What happens when there is a 269/269 split in the general election? The house votes based on state delegates (each state gets 1 vote), so Trump would almost certainly win. It's also possible to avoid by faithless electors, which are more likely in the current era. oh, did not realize that. I think no matter how you slice it, if there is a tie, our country is essentially in ruins. what if the eventual winner has 4 million more popular votes?
I don't think either side will be fine with anything other than a direct victory. The laws/rules we have in place for anything other than a direct victory aren't satisfying. People won't be like "Welp, rules are rules!"
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Northern Ireland27403 Posts
On September 02 2020 08:04 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:57 Fleetfeet wrote:On September 02 2020 07:16 JimmiC wrote:On September 02 2020 06:39 Danglars wrote:
CA libs have already told me that Trump is the worst president ever, but Pence would be worse. Several explanations of the religious angle and bad-but-competent angle are repeated. I had made no progress on the worst-president but not-worse-than-his-vice-president paradox, or rather, that Trump is simultaneously uniquely bad and maybe the country can't endure another 4 years, but he might be followed by someone worse for the country.
But CA is a big liberal bastion, at least on the densely urban parts of the coast, so I can't say the "worse than Trump" is widespread. I do take it as an inevitable event that future Republican presidents will be branded with that epithet to be made to appear radical to some audience. I'm confused to why you think that is a paradox? Trump can be the worst president ever and Pence can worse.
It might be easier for you to think with sports. Jack Nicholson was the best golfer ever, until Tiger Woods (Or Hogan was the best until Jack, whatever you like). So the opposite can also be true. Someone was the worst golfer ever until someone was worse. Had they said Trump was the worst possible president then I could understand what you were getting at, but as you have it written it makes perfect sense. I'm not sure I agree with it, there are many ways Pence would be better but there are some pretty important parts where he would likely be worse. I would say something like Trump is a horrible and unquestionably unqualified president, Pence would be another awful choice. Haha, this is easy to answer. Consider "the worst president ever" versus "the worst president to date". Yes, people have referred to Gretzky or Jordan or whomever as the "best ever" at their respective sports, but these statements are generally understood to be hyperbolic, because they're factually indefensible. If you were to ignore that hyperbole, then having the worst of all time be followed by someone even worse is paradoxical. I believe Danglars' goal in that line of reasoning is to have people admit that claiming Trump to be the worst ever is hyperbolic, and engage in further discussion from that point. Literally, trump cannot be the worst president ever and have Pence be even worse. I mean there are lots of things in the English language that if we took them litterly would be silly. Calling that a paradox is like saying, how can he kick the bucket when hes dead and thinking the person who said it was dumb. Or one of the other millions of things we commonly say that are not litterly accurate.
Americans saying ‘could care less’ being right up there.
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On September 02 2020 08:04 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2020 07:57 Fleetfeet wrote:On September 02 2020 07:16 JimmiC wrote:On September 02 2020 06:39 Danglars wrote:
CA libs have already told me that Trump is the worst president ever, but Pence would be worse. Several explanations of the religious angle and bad-but-competent angle are repeated. I had made no progress on the worst-president but not-worse-than-his-vice-president paradox, or rather, that Trump is simultaneously uniquely bad and maybe the country can't endure another 4 years, but he might be followed by someone worse for the country.
But CA is a big liberal bastion, at least on the densely urban parts of the coast, so I can't say the "worse than Trump" is widespread. I do take it as an inevitable event that future Republican presidents will be branded with that epithet to be made to appear radical to some audience. I'm confused to why you think that is a paradox? Trump can be the worst president ever and Pence can worse.
It might be easier for you to think with sports. Jack Nicholson was the best golfer ever, until Tiger Woods (Or Hogan was the best until Jack, whatever you like). So the opposite can also be true. Someone was the worst golfer ever until someone was worse. Had they said Trump was the worst possible president then I could understand what you were getting at, but as you have it written it makes perfect sense. I'm not sure I agree with it, there are many ways Pence would be better but there are some pretty important parts where he would likely be worse. I would say something like Trump is a horrible and unquestionably unqualified president, Pence would be another awful choice. Haha, this is easy to answer. Consider "the worst president ever" versus "the worst president to date". Yes, people have referred to Gretzky or Jordan or whomever as the "best ever" at their respective sports, but these statements are generally understood to be hyperbolic, because they're factually indefensible. If you were to ignore that hyperbole, then having the worst of all time be followed by someone even worse is paradoxical. I believe Danglars' goal in that line of reasoning is to have people admit that claiming Trump to be the worst ever is hyperbolic, and engage in further discussion from that point. Literally, trump cannot be the worst president ever and have Pence be even worse. I mean there are lots of things in the English language that if we took them litterly would be silly. Calling that a paradox is like saying, how can he kick the bucket when hes dead and thinking the person who said it was dumb. Or one of the other millions of things we commonly say that are not litterly accurate.
The expression "Kicked the bucket" comes from the idea of people hanging themselves by noose, and "Kicking the bucket" from under their own feet. So it literally did refer to kicking the bucket as part of the act of committing suicide. I get what you're getting at, but perhaps not the best example.
The crux of the thing is that I don't consider it to be in bad faith for Danglars to seemingly conveniently ignore the hyperbole to make a point.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/coihwYD.png)
