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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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Northern Ireland25339 Posts
On October 10 2019 02:20 raga4ka wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2019 10:13 JimmiC wrote:On October 09 2019 04:36 raga4ka wrote:On October 09 2019 00:53 JimmiC wrote:On October 09 2019 00:47 Neneu wrote:On October 09 2019 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:
This Chinese stuff with Blizzard and the NBA is extremely spooky. I am wildly uncomfortable with it and it needs to boil over. There needs to be a massive response to this. The CCP can NOT be allowed to have this level of influence. For a long time everyone assumed Western capitalism would overwhelm Chinese restrictions on free speech, when it turns out Chinese restrictions on free speech are using capitalism to silence speech everywhere; from the NBA’s bowing and scraping, to this Blizzard BS, to TikTok's censoring of "sensitive" subjects. It’s only going to get worse. I agree, as their economic growth increases the likelihood of any sanction, or even if the world was willing to sanction such a big market, making them change course is unlikely. I'm not sure that if they marched their military into Hong Kong and said "One China, our Rules now" the rest of the world could do anything about it. I think people are just unaware of how awful the Chinese government is to its people and are just too impressed with how it has done economically and their big projects. The human cost is incredibly high. How would you know that if you haven't lived in China? As far as I know the overwhelming majority of Chinese are happy with their government, because having a safe home and jobs that earn them something to eat is far more important then a political view. You must read and understand the sad history of China before the CCP came to power and even though Mao's reign was terrible, after him the CCP did what is described as a miracle by it's people. On October 09 2019 02:38 Mohdoo wrote:On October 09 2019 01:29 Nouar wrote:On October 09 2019 00:58 Mohdoo wrote:
Huge weakness of capitalism being showcased. The Chinese market is so gigantic that every single company will make the same choice if they are put in the same situation. This needs to be addressed somehow. So long as companies are offered the prospect of more than doubling their revenue, they are going to drool over it and do anything to get it.
The US needs to impose some sort of regulations around something specifically described as "violating human rights by appeasing foreign governments". Make it a new law. Laws are man-made and we are seeing a clear need. You seem to be surprised. The rest of the world has already suffered this exact kind of thing for the last xx years coming from the US. One cannot ignore what the US does or says as if it imposes sanctions on you, you do not get to trade at all with the rest of the world or barely. All that while the US does not recognize most of the international courts, conveniently enough :-) Some kind of bully, that thinks itself benevolent but still a bully usually. The fact that there are now two powers doing that is new, but that's about all. This is quite the leap. When has someone been ejected from a tournament for opposing the war in Iraq? The idea that the US is deeply involved in other people's business is a huge leap from "speaking against US atrocities literally ends your career". There is no comparison to be made between mentioning Hong Kong and the ways the US imposes itself. There are varying degrees of intervention. What China is demanding is complete and total submission for even minor disagreements. This is a different level of what you are right to say are the same thing. But we can appreciate the differences and don't need to label them as the same. US just like China would sanction any foreign company or people if it infringes it's interests resulting in hundreds to thousands of lost jobs and careers ending. To the chinese the topic of any form of Hong Kong separatism views is a taboo. It's not like Hong Kong is severely oppressed by the CCP, like it's some middle east dictatorship... Young Honkongers just seem to hate mainlander's political system and mainlanders themselves, maybe like Catalonian people in Spain. That won't change much, since Hong Kong is part of China, and violence will only discredit their efforts. Supporting violence in Honk Kong will undoubtedly be sanctioned by both China and it's people. I think you would struggle to find someone in China complaining about the government because they effectively use technology to make sure it does not happen and when it does the penalties are severe. That is before you get into the the Muslim "re-education" camps, the forced relocation of millions, the various human rights abuses and so on. There is no denying that the Chinese government has made a BUNCH of money and that there has been a trickle down effect to many of the people. There is also no denying that human rights abuses happen daily on a mass scale. My part of the World their is a ton of Chinese immigrants, many from Hong Kong, but no all, if you talk to them you get a different message than the official message from the government, go figure. If the Chinese are so concerned about their human rights, they are not forced to live in China, as you know millions of Chinese are living all over the world. There are human rights abuses sure, but the majority of Chinese prefer economical stability, security and safety over political views. Also the majority trusts the CCP as their livelihood is getting better. I'll just quote from the book: China and the Global Politics of Regionalization: "There is for example, the "grand but unspoken bargain" between the Communist Party and the Chinese public. If the party delivers "economic growth" and promotes China's "global standing" it will get "public acquiescence to it's autocratic rule and anachronistic idology" (Keller and Rawski 2007, 194). A downturn in growth, however, would likely constitute a failure by the CCP to keep its end of this bargain..."
Went to Amazon to add that book to my wish list for future purchase/reading. Would like to learn more about the country and I do enjoy me some texts of this kind.
115 of my British pounds though, what?
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On October 10 2019 02:28 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2019 02:20 raga4ka wrote:On October 09 2019 10:13 JimmiC wrote:On October 09 2019 04:36 raga4ka wrote:On October 09 2019 00:53 JimmiC wrote:On October 09 2019 00:47 Neneu wrote:On October 09 2019 00:44 Mohdoo wrote:
This Chinese stuff with Blizzard and the NBA is extremely spooky. I am wildly uncomfortable with it and it needs to boil over. There needs to be a massive response to this. The CCP can NOT be allowed to have this level of influence. For a long time everyone assumed Western capitalism would overwhelm Chinese restrictions on free speech, when it turns out Chinese restrictions on free speech are using capitalism to silence speech everywhere; from the NBA’s bowing and scraping, to this Blizzard BS, to TikTok's censoring of "sensitive" subjects. It’s only going to get worse. I agree, as their economic growth increases the likelihood of any sanction, or even if the world was willing to sanction such a big market, making them change course is unlikely. I'm not sure that if they marched their military into Hong Kong and said "One China, our Rules now" the rest of the world could do anything about it. I think people are just unaware of how awful the Chinese government is to its people and are just too impressed with how it has done economically and their big projects. The human cost is incredibly high. How would you know that if you haven't lived in China? As far as I know the overwhelming majority of Chinese are happy with their government, because having a safe home and jobs that earn them something to eat is far more important then a political view. You must read and understand the sad history of China before the CCP came to power and even though Mao's reign was terrible, after him the CCP did what is described as a miracle by it's people. On October 09 2019 02:38 Mohdoo wrote:On October 09 2019 01:29 Nouar wrote:On October 09 2019 00:58 Mohdoo wrote:
Huge weakness of capitalism being showcased. The Chinese market is so gigantic that every single company will make the same choice if they are put in the same situation. This needs to be addressed somehow. So long as companies are offered the prospect of more than doubling their revenue, they are going to drool over it and do anything to get it.
The US needs to impose some sort of regulations around something specifically described as "violating human rights by appeasing foreign governments". Make it a new law. Laws are man-made and we are seeing a clear need. You seem to be surprised. The rest of the world has already suffered this exact kind of thing for the last xx years coming from the US. One cannot ignore what the US does or says as if it imposes sanctions on you, you do not get to trade at all with the rest of the world or barely. All that while the US does not recognize most of the international courts, conveniently enough :-) Some kind of bully, that thinks itself benevolent but still a bully usually. The fact that there are now two powers doing that is new, but that's about all. This is quite the leap. When has someone been ejected from a tournament for opposing the war in Iraq? The idea that the US is deeply involved in other people's business is a huge leap from "speaking against US atrocities literally ends your career". There is no comparison to be made between mentioning Hong Kong and the ways the US imposes itself. There are varying degrees of intervention. What China is demanding is complete and total submission for even minor disagreements. This is a different level of what you are right to say are the same thing. But we can appreciate the differences and don't need to label them as the same. US just like China would sanction any foreign company or people if it infringes it's interests resulting in hundreds to thousands of lost jobs and careers ending. To the chinese the topic of any form of Hong Kong separatism views is a taboo. It's not like Hong Kong is severely oppressed by the CCP, like it's some middle east dictatorship... Young Honkongers just seem to hate mainlander's political system and mainlanders themselves, maybe like Catalonian people in Spain. That won't change much, since Hong Kong is part of China, and violence will only discredit their efforts. Supporting violence in Honk Kong will undoubtedly be sanctioned by both China and it's people. I think you would struggle to find someone in China complaining about the government because they effectively use technology to make sure it does not happen and when it does the penalties are severe. That is before you get into the the Muslim "re-education" camps, the forced relocation of millions, the various human rights abuses and so on. There is no denying that the Chinese government has made a BUNCH of money and that there has been a trickle down effect to many of the people. There is also no denying that human rights abuses happen daily on a mass scale. My part of the World their is a ton of Chinese immigrants, many from Hong Kong, but no all, if you talk to them you get a different message than the official message from the government, go figure. If the Chinese are so concerned about their human rights, they are not forced to live in China, as you know millions of Chinese are living all over the world. There are human rights abuses sure, but the majority of Chinese prefer economical stability, security and safety over political views. Also the majority trusts the CCP as their livelihood is getting better. I'll just quote from the book: China and the Global Politics of Regionalization: "There is for example, the "grand but unspoken bargain" between the Communist Party and the Chinese public. If the party delivers "economic growth" and promotes China's "global standing" it will get "public acquiescence to it's autocratic rule and anachronistic idology" (Keller and Rawski 2007, 194). A downturn in growth, however, would likely constitute a failure by the CCP to keep its end of this bargain..." Went to Amazon to add that book to my wish list for future purchase/reading. Would like to learn more about the country and I do enjoy me some texts of this kind. 115 of my British pounds though, what?
Isn't that like...$1.20 USD? /s
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On October 10 2019 03:18 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
$140 actually.
I feel like there was a decimal missing. Who the hell thinks their book is $140 worth? This isn't an university campus lecture series. Do people really charge that? Because if so, I'm raising the price on my next few books.
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Here's my take:
A reminder of what Trump is trying to achieve in the grand scheme of things.
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/26-years-on-russia-set-to-repay-all-soviet-unions-foreign-debt
He wants China to become the next post-USSR Russia and kneel before global capital linking our fates together. They are more or less the missing link. He will keep trying to destroy them economically while dragging along all other economies before inevitably, the turnaround happens under not so nice circumstances.
By kneeling before global capital I mean, kicking themselves out of their corporations so the US and whoever is with them can grab a cut and start influencing their politics more.
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Northern Ireland25339 Posts
On October 10 2019 04:07 Vivax wrote:Here's my take: A reminder of what Trump is trying to achieve in the grand scheme of things. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/26-years-on-russia-set-to-repay-all-soviet-unions-foreign-debtHe wants China to become the next post-USSR Russia and kneel before global capital linking our fates together. They are more or less the missing link. He will keep trying to destroy them economically while dragging along all other economies before inevitably, the turnaround happens under not so nice circumstances. By kneeling before global capital I mean, kicking themselves out of their corporations so the US and whoever is with them can grab a cut and start influencing their politics more.
I really don’t buy it, it sounds too sophisticated and joined-up a theory to fit with Trump.
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United States42691 Posts
Trump doesn’t know the difference between a trade deficit and a payment and no amount of explaining it to him has worked. He doesn’t have a China plan beyond making them give back all the dollars that he has decided the US government was giving to them. He’s doing this by spending billions of taxpayer money on subsidizing farmers so they can sell discounted crops to China, essentially paying the Chinese with taxpayer money to buy American crops. This is not a rational individual. I don’t think a rational individual could even conceptualize what Trump’s plan is because literally no other person thinks the way he does. It’s one of those life is stranger than fiction scenarios, like the guy who thought that lemon juice would make him invisible because they use it as invisible ink. You can’t create that kind of logic from scratch.
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What's sophisticated about wanting to destroy Chyna economically?
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United States42691 Posts
On October 10 2019 04:13 Sent. wrote:
What's sophisticated about wanting to destroy Chyna economically?
He wants them to pay back the balance of trade deficit.
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In which case the US would have to return all the stuff they bought for that deficit?How does that work.
Based on what I've seen so far, right now China pulls out of other markets and buys up their own. So the US buy up their own back etc., corporate buybacks spiking suddenly and the hidden QE started after the repo troubles kind of speak for that. The standoff is underway and there will be no deal unless they agree on kissing Trumps feet.
If it doesn't work this way, Trumps only option will be to destroy the dollar. But it's pretty unlikely. Russia figured it out and started using other currencies for pricing.
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On October 10 2019 04:24 Vivax wrote:
In which case the US would have to return all the stuff they bought for that deficit?How does that work.
Based on what I've seen so far, right now China pulls out of other markets and buys up their own. So the US buy up their own back etc., corporate buybacks spiking suddenly and the hidden QE started after the repo troubles kind of speak for that. The standoff is underway and there will be no deal unless they agree on kissing Trumps feet.
If it doesn't work this way, Trumps only option will be to destroy the dollar. But it's pretty unlikely. Russia figured it out and started using other currencies for pricing. You assume Trump has a plan or knows how things work.
Both are provably not true.
The US buys more from China then China buys from the US, therefor Trump is going to make China pay more through tariffs so the deficit shrinks.
That it doesn't work that way is not relevant to what Trump is doing.
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United States42691 Posts
On October 10 2019 04:24 Vivax wrote:
In which case the US would have to return all the stuff they bought for that deficit?How does that work.
Based on what I've seen so far, right now China pulls out of other markets and buys up their own. So the US buy up their own back etc., corporate buybacks spiking suddenly and the hidden QE started after the repo troubles kind of speak for that. The standoff is underway and there will be no deal unless they agree on kissing Trumps feet.
If it doesn't work this way, Trumps only option will be to destroy the dollar. But it's pretty unlikely. Russia figured it out and started using other currencies for pricing.
It doesn’t work. But he doesn’t understand that the trade deficit isn’t a literal check that Obama mailed to China each year.
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I'm sure his thinktanks explained it to him like he's 5 and he just keeps pretending that he's running the show while having tons of fun at acting like a megalomaniac. He's just a huge troll that follows the plan laid out for him, so the plan isn't stupid per se. He doesn't need to understand it, just enact it.
Did I say thinktank and not Cabal?
Either way, for him to devalue the dollar he'd need control of the fed that won't allow him. Curious about what he is going to do about that. Maybe blame a recession on them? Would be weird considering the guys who run it are probably at a similar power level.
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On October 10 2019 04:51 Vivax wrote:
I'm sure his thinktanks explained it to him like he's 5 and he just keeps pretending that he's running the show while having tons of fun at acting like a megalomaniac. He's just a huge troll that follows the plan laid out for him, so the plan isn't stupid per se. He doesn't need to understand it, just enact it.
Did I say thinktank and not Cabal?
Either way, for him to devalue the dollar he'd need control of the fed that won't allow him. Curious about what he is going to do about that. Maybe blame a recession on them? Would be weird considering the guys who run it are probably at a similar power level.
What I'm banking on: Rate cuts used in excess, inflation kicks into overdrive, housing prices artificially inflated before a big crash. Somewhere in there will be an opportunity for me to get a juicy refinance on my house, then I just gotta ride the market until it picks up again in 5 or so years.
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I don't see the value in second guessing, what coherent plan Trump, or in this case an unspecified thinktank/cabal/unknown actors, if it even exists are planning.
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It's almost 2020, old sport. ^_^ The Roaring 20's are among us!
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United States42691 Posts
On October 10 2019 05:23 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2019 04:51 Vivax wrote:
I'm sure his thinktanks explained it to him like he's 5 and he just keeps pretending that he's running the show while having tons of fun at acting like a megalomaniac. He's just a huge troll that follows the plan laid out for him, so the plan isn't stupid per se. He doesn't need to understand it, just enact it.
Did I say thinktank and not Cabal?
Either way, for him to devalue the dollar he'd need control of the fed that won't allow him. Curious about what he is going to do about that. Maybe blame a recession on them? Would be weird considering the guys who run it are probably at a similar power level. What I'm banking on: Rate cuts used in excess, inflation kicks into overdrive, housing prices artificially inflated before a big crash. Somewhere in there will be an opportunity for me to get a juicy refinance on my house, then I just gotta ride the market until it picks up again in 5 or so years.
Mortgage rates are already down. I closed on a refinance a few ago at 3.125.
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Not believing this needs any comment (from the Guardian's live)
Trump defended his decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria as Turkey launched a military operation in the region. (The president also flippantly said he was not worried about the potential escape of Islamic State fighters because they would likely flee to Europe.)
Asked about the Kurds, President Trump said that the Kurds did not help the US during WWII or in the Normandy invasion/ D-Day
I mean..... What.
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There is no coherent plan at all in his military decisions. Here's a recent long read article sourced by several 3 or 4 star generals who discuss their experience with Trump.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/11/military-officers-trump/598360/
They agree on 5 points:
He disdains experience
He trusts only his own instincts
He resists coherent strategy
He is reflexively contrary
He has a simplistic and antiquated notion of soldiering
To quote a small part of the article, he's just shooting blind
“Say you’re going to have an engagement with North Korea,” a general who served under multiple presidents told me. “At some point you should have developed a strategy that says, Here’s what we want the outcome to be. And then somebody is developing talking points. Those talking points are shared with the military, with the State Department, with the ambassador. Whatever the issue might be, before the president ever says anything, everybody should know what the talking points are going to be.” To avoid confusion and a sense of aimlessness, “everybody should have at least a general understanding of what the strategy is and what direction we’re heading in.”
Which is frequently not the case now.
“If the president says ‘Fire and brimstone’ and then two weeks later says ‘This is my best friend,’ that’s not necessarily bad—but it’s bad if the rest of the relevant people in the government responsible for executing the strategy aren’t aware that that’s the strategy,” the general said. Having a process to figure out the sequences of steps is essential. “The process tells the president what he should say. When I was working with Obama and Bush,” he continued, “before we took action, we would understand what that action was going to be, we’d have done a Q&A on how we think the international community is going to respond to that action, and we would have discussed how we’d deal with that response.”
To operate outside of an organized process, as Trump tends to, is to reel from crisis to rapprochement to crisis, generating little more than noise. This haphazard approach could lead somewhere good—but it could just as easily start a very big fire.
If the president eschews the process, this general told me, then when a challenging national-security issue arises, he won’t have information at hand about what the cascading effects of pursuing different options might be. “He’s kind of shooting blind.”
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EPT
