Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Thing is from my perspective the longer we're collectively stuck in a consumerist mentality the more likely it is that every solution involves the deaths of billions.
Scandinavian countries are better in this regard than more predatory capitalist ones, but we still purchase soy produced in deforested rainforest areas for fish-food, the norwegian company Hydro uses aluminum produced in deforested parts of the amazon, our Statoil (now equinor) invested a couple billion $ in brazilian oil fields.
Bolsonaro is a god damn disaster in every area. He's a genuine fascist - far beyond Trump - but western countries and our cravings for more and more cheaper products are another root of the problem; the resources hidden within the amazon rainforest are only valuable if there is a buyer. And if the most environmentally conscious countries are oil producing nations that utilize resources harvested from ex-rainforest - predictably causing a desire to remove more rainforest - then the conclusion is, we're fucked.
I really hope this happens to be a particularly warm cycle and that there's some extenuating circumstance, but I doubt it.
So looks like Trump was eager for Chinas answer, so he can make another answer that will warrant another answer. I'm feeling that xzibit meme now. I bet that something at least mildly scandalous is bound to happen for G7. Then pre-election some kind of miracle agreement will be reached that gives Trump another term?
Or is he actually a madman without a plan. His latest tweet included
Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..your companies HOME and making your products in the USA
On August 24 2019 01:13 Vivax wrote: So looks like Trump was eager for Chinas answer, so he can make another answer that will warrant another answer. I'm feeling that xzibit meme now. I bet that something at least mildly scandalous is bound to happen for G7. Then pre-election some kind of miracle agreement will be reached that gives Trump another term?
Or is he actually a madman without a plan. His latest tweet included
Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..your companies HOME and making your products in the USA
which reads like something ordered from the USSR.
I keep thinking something similar will happen with all the detention centers at the border. When election time comes, Trump will release everyone, make them all citizens or whatever, and claim he fixed the problem at the border.
My company makes stuff we sell to companies in China, some of which may sell it to Huawei. This proclamation shit is hell for regulatory compliance because it doesn’t actually do anything. There’s a list of companies that we can’t sell to and Trump declares that companies will be added or removed from the list at will, in an off hand way, often on Twitter, and with no time frame given. But the actual list, as maintained by the commerce department, generally doesn’t reflect those changes. It’s not clear if Trump doesn’t know there’s a physical list and is just doing the Michael Scott “bankruptcy!” thing or whether he just has no control over his administration. But the result is that we have orders that we’re ready to ship and we’re not sure if we’re allowed to.
Trump is probably used to businesses where he yells something and it gets done because the boss said so, not the government where nothing happens unless you have the correct form signed in triplicate delivered to the correct office.
And yes this creates uncertainty and uncertainty is (almost) always bad for businesses.
On August 23 2019 23:17 Liquid`Drone wrote: Thing is from my perspective the longer we're collectively stuck in a consumerist mentality the more likely it is that every solution involves the deaths of billions.
Scandinavian countries are better in this regard than more predatory capitalist ones, but we still purchase soy produced in deforested rainforest areas for fish-food, the norwegian company Hydro uses aluminum produced in deforested parts of the amazon, our Statoil (now equinor) invested a couple billion $ in brazilian oil fields.
Bolsonaro is a god damn disaster in every area. He's a genuine fascist - far beyond Trump - but western countries and our cravings for more and more cheaper products are another root of the problem; the resources hidden within the amazon rainforest are only valuable if there is a buyer. And if the most environmentally conscious countries are oil producing nations that utilize resources harvested from ex-rainforest - predictably causing a desire to remove more rainforest - then the conclusion is, we're fucked.
I really hope this happens to be a particularly warm cycle and that there's some extenuating circumstance, but I doubt it.
I don't disagree with anything you have said. But there is progress. You guys did divest out of our Oil Sands a few years ago because of pressure from your people to invest in greener products. It is not bad news all the time that is just what makes the news. And consumerism is the biggest problem IMO we all want way more stuff then we use. Very few people now a days buy a pair of shoes, use them until they are unusable and then get another pair, now a days people buy a whole bunch of pairs, and that is one example. Some of the good things is the electric car infrastructure is growing and many, many semi's are switching from Diesel to Natural Gas. But there is so many mountains to climb, heck we barely understand micro plastics and what problems that will cause.
I completely agree on Bolsonaro, and it is a utter shame that the previous leader who was popular and never would have lost had to be so darn corrupt. Because the new devil is worse than the old one. From most of what I have read Bolsonaro is not even really that popular that he just happened to be the wrong guy at the right time in basically a power vacuum and now they are stuck with him. Hopefully he is not able to change the constitution in the way that Maduro was able too and he will be voted out in one term. Sadly he is going to be able to do a ton of damage in that time, not just environmentally but also socially as he is anti gay and a whole bunch of other ugly awful shit.
I lurk this thread a lot from work, and I apologize beforehand for not being more of a presence before calling you out on this, but this post is particularly concerning.
While your diagnosis of the symptoms of Brazil's political woes is correct, it carries with it the incorrect assumption that prevents you or anyone from understanding the causality of the situation. Lula is a political prisoner, imprisoned on trumped up charges by a corrupt judiciary and others who are much happier with the present situation than with allowing Lula to continue his successful political project. This was pointed out as early as last year by Noam Chomsky, but thanks to the work of Glenn Greenwald we now have much more substantial evidence of how it happened.
This is a really clear cut example of the types of assumptions that consistently prevent one from providing anything more than a symptomatic description of politics.
Further: the first time you wrote about Lula in the SA politics thread you misgendered him, how are you in a position to claim that you're more involved in understanding these things than GH is?
On August 24 2019 02:17 Gorsameth wrote: Trump is probably used to businesses where he yells something and it gets done because the boss said so, not the government where nothing happens unless you have the correct form signed in triplicate delivered to the correct office.
And yes this creates uncertainty and uncertainty is (almost) always bad for businesses.
But the things he yells are very rarely specific enough to form policy. Business doesn’t even work this way. There’s always shit that needs to be worked out to do anything. It’d be okay if he had a competent chief of staff who was handling the implementation of the yelling but he doesn’t. This is just the “old man yells at cloud” Simpsons meme, only back then we didn’t know it would be ‘the cloud’ and not a cloud.
Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
I've seen today that the spin on Fox News, et. al. is that the economy taking a nosedive is really China's fault, as they retaliate against Trump's tariffs in the trade war. Like there's no such thing as cause and effect. Like Trump went on Twitter, declared "trade wars are good and easy to win", and then just expected that to be the reality as he sows a ton of bad will with China and taxes the shit out of his own country because he doesn't understand what a tariff is. And then suddenly it doesn't reflect badly on Trump anymore that China might not want to be so economically buddy-buddy with us going forward. It has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that the only policies Trump has pushed through for the economy are ones that fuck us over on a large scale, like the tariffs and the tax cut that's really a tax increase. There is no point at which these people will get a grip.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
You’re talking like this is unusual in the world right now.And yet the US has the highest interest rate in the developed world, albeit at a pitiful 2.25%. Canada 1.75% AUD,NZD 1%. UK .75% EU 0% For the past 3 years Japan -.10% Switzerland -.75%
This is simply what happens when there is too much debt in the system and interest payments become too high.There is no solution other than a new economic system/reset.They seem to be delaying that as long as possible.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
Trump appears to be flailing at the sight of economic problems, looking to blame anyone but himself. But it wont be hard for people to put two and two together. A trade war with china jams up the free flow of trade, which bogs down the economy at large. The international free market system is here to stay, and a trade war with China only damages our economy as a result of bogging down the international system. Sorry to the people in the rust belt, but you better learn to code.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
You’re talking like this is unusual in the world right now.And yet the US has the highest interest rate in the developed world, albeit at a pitiful 2.25%. Canada 1.75% AUD,NZD 1%. UK .75% EU 0% For the past 3 years Japan -.10% Switzerland -.75%
This is simply what happens when there is too much debt in the system and interest payments become too high.There is no solution other than a new economic system/reset.They seem to be delaying that as long as possible.
You cannot compare them in such a simplistic way. Different currencies have different monetary policies, rates of inflation, growth, and so forth. Recent UK interest rates are very negative if denominated in dollars, for example, because of the weakness of the pound over the period in which the interest has been paid.
Comparing the dollar with its own historical trends suggests an attempt to pump up consumer debt to jolt the economy into one last spasm of activity.
On August 24 2019 01:13 Vivax wrote: So looks like Trump was eager for Chinas answer, so he can make another answer that will warrant another answer. I'm feeling that xzibit meme now. I bet that something at least mildly scandalous is bound to happen for G7. Then pre-election some kind of miracle agreement will be reached that gives Trump another term?
Or is he actually a madman without a plan. His latest tweet included
Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing..your companies HOME and making your products in the USA
which reads like something ordered from the USSR.
$20 says his merch will still be made outside of the USA though.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
You’re talking like this is unusual in the world right now.And yet the US has the highest interest rate in the developed world, albeit at a pitiful 2.25%. Canada 1.75% AUD,NZD 1%. UK .75% EU 0% For the past 3 years Japan -.10% Switzerland -.75%
This is simply what happens when there is too much debt in the system and interest payments become too high.There is no solution other than a new economic system/reset.They seem to be delaying that as long as possible.
You cannot compare them in such a simplistic way. Different currencies have different monetary policies, rates of inflation, growth, and so forth. Recent UK interest rates are very negative if denominated in dollars, for example, because of the weakness of the pound over the period in which the interest has been paid.
Comparing the dollar with its own historical trends suggests an attempt to pump up consumer debt to jolt the economy into one last spasm of activity.
Remember how they tried to push Bush's recession onto the next president and even tried privatizing social security to cover the gap? I suspect another round of that or something like it is around the corner.
On August 24 2019 05:28 KwarK wrote: Trump pushing the Fed to lower rates by 100 basis points which is the equivalent of the giant adrenaline needle to the heart they do in medical dramas on tv. Trying to give the economy a jolt to keep spending and consumption up by making people spend money they don’t have yet and then spend less in the future. It’s normally an emergency recession measure but each time the economy stalls Trump demands another jolt and there’s not much more they can do.
And so he starts flaming the Fed Chair and calling him an enemy of the American people. This is the reality of having an incompetent narcissist as President.
You’re talking like this is unusual in the world right now.And yet the US has the highest interest rate in the developed world, albeit at a pitiful 2.25%. Canada 1.75% AUD,NZD 1%. UK .75% EU 0% For the past 3 years Japan -.10% Switzerland -.75%
This is simply what happens when there is too much debt in the system and interest payments become too high.There is no solution other than a new economic system/reset.They seem to be delaying that as long as possible.
You cannot compare them in such a simplistic way. Different currencies have different monetary policies, rates of inflation, growth, and so forth. Recent UK interest rates are very negative if denominated in dollars, for example, because of the weakness of the pound over the period in which the interest has been paid.
Comparing the dollar with its own historical trends suggests an attempt to pump up consumer debt to jolt the economy into one last spasm of activity.
Even Larry Summers agrees that lowering the interest rate is just an ephemeral stop gap measure that can’t solve slackening aggregate demand. Lowering the price of credit really seems to be mostly just borrowing against the future at this point — a time shifting of future demand that isn’t generating enough to repay that which it borrowed.
EPT
