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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1744

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28929 Posts
August 09 2019 14:50 GMT
#34861
The environmentalist/leftist opposition to trump has very little to do with trade wars. Leftists generally aren't opposed to protectionism (the people talking negatively about the trade wars are generally capitalists who are slightly to the left of the current republican party), and environmentalists oppose him because he claims that man made climate change (or even climate change?) isn't real and because he wants to increase/accelerate earthly exploitation.

If Trump had a radical environmentalist agenda where he wanted to stop globalization to lower emissions caused by transportation (and also decrease consumption altogether), there would be very little backlash to that aspect of his policies from leftists or green voters. But that does not make up even the tiniest fraction of his argument, so it's irrelevant.
Moderator
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18876 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-09 14:51:24
August 09 2019 14:50 GMT
#34862
On August 09 2019 23:47 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 23:34 Pangpootata wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:18 KwarK wrote:
US farmers getting hit by one thing after another. Trump unilaterally resumes the trade war with an open declaration of new sanctions on Twitter, of all places, and China promptly reverses their prior commitment to buy US produce.


Trump is already taxing Chinese goods to subsidize US farmers. He will likely up his game even more.

Now Chinese agricultural imports are more expensive and US imports are banned in China. If people in US buy their own farmers' produce and people in China buy their own farmers' produce, there will be less carbon dioxide footprint from transportation across the ocean.

I wonder why the environmentalists aren't supporting trade wars
How many soybeans can you eat before you throw up?
They are sold to China because they are a surplus, not needed in the US itself.

And you know who pays those taxes on Chinese goods right? American citizens, not China. If you slap a 20% tarrif on something that something becomes 20% more expensive in stores. The consumer pays the tarrif, not the company shipping it to the US. (and if it won't sell at 20% more they just stop shipping it, as happened with American Soybeans in China. China's tarrifs mean no one wanted to buy American soybeans so farmers were stuck with harvests they had invested money in but couldn't sell.

Not only are soybeans a surplus good here, they are a crucial bumper crop that farmers rely on as a backup given its relatively flexible growing season and high yield/low cost.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
August 09 2019 14:51 GMT
#34863
On August 09 2019 23:50 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 23:47 Gorsameth wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:34 Pangpootata wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:18 KwarK wrote:
US farmers getting hit by one thing after another. Trump unilaterally resumes the trade war with an open declaration of new sanctions on Twitter, of all places, and China promptly reverses their prior commitment to buy US produce.


Trump is already taxing Chinese goods to subsidize US farmers. He will likely up his game even more.

Now Chinese agricultural imports are more expensive and US imports are banned in China. If people in US buy their own farmers' produce and people in China buy their own farmers' produce, there will be less carbon dioxide footprint from transportation across the ocean.

I wonder why the environmentalists aren't supporting trade wars
How many soybeans can you eat before you throw up?
They are sold to China because they are a surplus, not needed in the US itself.

And you know who pays those taxes on Chinese goods right? American citizens, not China. If you slap a 20% tarrif on something that something becomes 20% more expensive in stores. The consumer pays the tarrif, not the company shipping it to the US. (and if it won't sell at 20% more they just stop shipping it, as happened with American Soybeans in China. China's tarrifs mean no one wanted to buy American soybeans so farmers were stuck with harvests they had invested money in but couldn't sell.

Not only are soybeans a surplus good here, they are a crucial bumper crop that farmers rely on given its relatively flexible growing season and high yield/low cost.


And there is the rub, soybeans are selling for about 9 dollars right now, which is around the cost of making them
Something witty
Trainrunnef
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States601 Posts
August 09 2019 14:53 GMT
#34864
On August 09 2019 12:00 IgnE wrote:
i mean you would admit, farv, that it does seem a little difficult to defend the idea that people having $12k more a year makes them worse off without sounding paternalistic. why raise the minimum wage if that were strictly true?

i get the feeling that ultimately objectors to UBI, even progressives, are tied to an accounting logic: UBI is not as effective per dollar as targeted solutions. it puts us all in good company with the effective altruists, where we can be unabashed in our paternalism



I think the key phrase that hasn't been mentioned yet is "All other things being equal". You cant deny that the market would adjust to capture this increase in discretionary funds, and shift the poverty baseline. A targetted scaled basic income would fare better than a universal basic income in my opinion, and would likely have better outcomes than some of our current tax incentives that go underutilized due to the complexity of the current tax laws.
I am, therefore I pee
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18876 Posts
August 09 2019 14:58 GMT
#34865
On August 09 2019 23:51 IyMoon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 23:50 farvacola wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:47 Gorsameth wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:34 Pangpootata wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:18 KwarK wrote:
US farmers getting hit by one thing after another. Trump unilaterally resumes the trade war with an open declaration of new sanctions on Twitter, of all places, and China promptly reverses their prior commitment to buy US produce.


Trump is already taxing Chinese goods to subsidize US farmers. He will likely up his game even more.

Now Chinese agricultural imports are more expensive and US imports are banned in China. If people in US buy their own farmers' produce and people in China buy their own farmers' produce, there will be less carbon dioxide footprint from transportation across the ocean.

I wonder why the environmentalists aren't supporting trade wars
How many soybeans can you eat before you throw up?
They are sold to China because they are a surplus, not needed in the US itself.

And you know who pays those taxes on Chinese goods right? American citizens, not China. If you slap a 20% tarrif on something that something becomes 20% more expensive in stores. The consumer pays the tarrif, not the company shipping it to the US. (and if it won't sell at 20% more they just stop shipping it, as happened with American Soybeans in China. China's tarrifs mean no one wanted to buy American soybeans so farmers were stuck with harvests they had invested money in but couldn't sell.

Not only are soybeans a surplus good here, they are a crucial bumper crop that farmers rely on given its relatively flexible growing season and high yield/low cost.


And there is the rub, soybeans are selling for about 9 dollars right now, which is around the cost of making them

Yep, and to make matters even worse, a lot of farmers who prioritize corn had to switch to soy beans this year given the inordinately wet planting season, so there’s extra downward pricing pressure on top of the trade war’s impact.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
August 09 2019 15:06 GMT
#34866
--- Nuked ---
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44450 Posts
August 09 2019 15:11 GMT
#34867
On August 09 2019 23:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
The environmentalist/leftist opposition to trump has very little to do with trade wars. Leftists generally aren't opposed to protectionism (the people talking negatively about the trade wars are generally capitalists who are slightly to the left of the current republican party), and environmentalists oppose him because he claims that man made climate change (or even climate change?) isn't real and because he wants to increase/accelerate earthly exploitation.

If Trump had a radical environmentalist agenda where he wanted to stop globalization to lower emissions caused by transportation (and also decrease consumption altogether), there would be very little backlash to that aspect of his policies from leftists or green voters. But that does not make up even the tiniest fraction of his argument, so it's irrelevant.

I think basically everyone has a vested interest in trade. Trade is a foundation upon which peace has been built in the modern era. China and Japan, for example, still have a lot of distrust, rivalry, and bad blood but they also need each other. The European Coal and Steel Community was explicitly created to achieve peace through trade and it has been an unqualified success.

Humans are inherently pretty dickish about other tribes but we’re also pretty greedy. It becomes a lot less appealing to bomb people when you’re trying to sell something to those people.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28929 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-09 15:47:54
August 09 2019 15:41 GMT
#34868
On August 10 2019 00:11 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 23:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
The environmentalist/leftist opposition to trump has very little to do with trade wars. Leftists generally aren't opposed to protectionism (the people talking negatively about the trade wars are generally capitalists who are slightly to the left of the current republican party), and environmentalists oppose him because he claims that man made climate change (or even climate change?) isn't real and because he wants to increase/accelerate earthly exploitation.

If Trump had a radical environmentalist agenda where he wanted to stop globalization to lower emissions caused by transportation (and also decrease consumption altogether), there would be very little backlash to that aspect of his policies from leftists or green voters. But that does not make up even the tiniest fraction of his argument, so it's irrelevant.

I think basically everyone has a vested interest in trade. Trade is a foundation upon which peace has been built in the modern era. China and Japan, for example, still have a lot of distrust, rivalry, and bad blood but they also need each other. The European Coal and Steel Community was explicitly created to achieve peace through trade and it has been an unqualified success.

Humans are inherently pretty dickish about other tribes but we’re also pretty greedy. It becomes a lot less appealing to bomb people when you’re trying to sell something to those people.


I don't disagree with any of this and I generally find myself a bit more pro-free trade than most of my comparably leftist friends. But I'm also pretty staunchly in the 'we all need to consume less' anticapitalism-camp - which I see as opposed to the 'free trade gives cheap goods to the consumers while providing jobs to people in poorer countries increasing living standards for all'-camp (even if I also agree with the descriptive statement I just made about that group).

Basically I think it's really difficult to balance environmental needs and causes (that I think trump everything in importance) with increasing living standards of the world's poorest 50% (which I think basically trumps everything other than the environment) and there's also some selfish 'I'm Norwegian so I want Norway to thrive' in there (which again is in conflict with both aforementioned goals as our obscene wealth is derived from harvesting resources that happened to be located in the sea outside my country and the harvest of which ruins the environment which is gonna most negatively affect those poorest 50% that I want to help). But this latter makes leftist Norwegians go 'we need to preserve local food production - that's one thing we cannot depend on the rest of the world for - but we also want to maintain some degree of animal welfare and decent worker rights, meaning that other countries that care less about these two will be able to produce far less expensive food - which means some tariffs need to be in place for the Norwegian consumer being willing to choose Norwegian-produced food which is a necessity for the preservation of Norwegian food producers.

I think trade wars are dumb as hell, if that's not clear. But I also think there are real reasons why a country might want to impose tariffs to protect local industry / worker rights - and I also think free trade goes hand in hand with a capitalistic pro-consumption society which I think we need to distance ourselves from. I don't see that transition as a particularly fun one to live through, however. And while Trump's reasons for engaging in a trade war has like, some tiny overlap with leftists in the 'protect local industry' part, every other argument he tries to articulate does not resonate at all with mainstream leftists reasons for being negative towards free trade.

Frankly, I also think some leftist opposition to 'free trade' is a relic from cold war opposition to IMF affixing economic aid with liberalization of economy (in a way that forced countries to liberalize their worker/property laws in ways that western workers/politicians would never have accepted), but I'm basing that on a collection of tidbits of information, I've never really delved into that myself.
Moderator
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
August 09 2019 15:51 GMT
#34869
Yang freaking gang qualifying for the next round of debates. hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype hype
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6326 Posts
August 09 2019 16:05 GMT
#34870
On August 09 2019 22:06 Grumbels wrote:
The most obvious problem with UBI is that it's untested. There are a myriad of known solutions to improving people's lives, such as single payer health care, rent control, unions, public banking. I don't think Yang is a very smart person, I listened to an hour long interview by him and he is pretty much economically illiterate and can't explain why UBI won't be captured by various cost increases, why it won't functionally replace existing welfare, why it's not effectively funded by a regressive tax, why people wouldn't borrow against it, why it doesn't include children and so on. Maybe UBI works, but why take the risk?

You're calling Yang economically illiterate and in the same post advocate for rent control and public banking. He actually has some of the more sane economic policies (carbon tax, relaxing zoning laws and implementing a VAT).
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
August 09 2019 16:25 GMT
#34871
I feel like a lot of people who complain about stuff being untested or way too new haven't worked in actual development. Stuff being shitty at first is always true. It is amazingly uncommon for some group of people to fix major issues with a quick, easy fix. Often times you gotta start with something new, which is a total mess at first, but rapidly improves, then starts to improve more slowly...then refinement...more refinement...more refinement...annnnnd...good enough.

The world is plain and simply full of low-ambition cowards with no idea what it takes to make the world better. They weren't there when people were developing vaccines or electricity or any of these wonderful things we have today. They are a bunch of mediocre...people... who do nothing but exist in the world and reap a load of benefits they've done nothing to deserve. All they can think to do is say "but that won't work amazingly at first, lets just keep rotting in our own filth instead".

"Why try to make a sewage system with all these leaks and problems when I can just shit in a hole outside?"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
August 09 2019 16:31 GMT
#34872
--- Nuked ---
brian
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States9644 Posts
August 09 2019 16:43 GMT
#34873
On August 10 2019 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
I feel like a lot of people who complain about stuff being untested or way too new haven't worked in actual development. Stuff being shitty at first is always true. It is amazingly uncommon for some group of people to fix major issues with a quick, easy fix. Often times you gotta start with something new, which is a total mess at first, but rapidly improves, then starts to improve more slowly...then refinement...more refinement...more refinement...annnnnd...good enough.

The world is plain and simply full of low-ambition cowards with no idea what it takes to make the world better. They weren't there when people were developing vaccines or electricity or any of these wonderful things we have today. They are a bunch of mediocre...people... who do nothing but exist in the world and reap a load of benefits they've done nothing to deserve. All they can think to do is say "but that won't work amazingly at first, lets just keep rotting in our own filth instead".

"Why try to make a sewage system with all these leaks and problems when I can just shit in a hole outside?"



i wager you probably aren’t talking code development per se, but on the flip side of this you have the adage ‘i can save hours of planning with weeks of development.’

i work in IT development, we don’t release things to production or for public consumption if it isn’t passing our tests so idk, this generally doesn’t resonate. if it is shitty, nobody outside development sees it because it gets tossed. the steps you describe certainly
happen, but we don’t use the production// the general public as our testing ground.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
August 09 2019 16:44 GMT
#34874
On August 10 2019 01:31 JimmiC wrote:
Very true, the bar shouldn't be perfection it should be does it make things better. If it does great do it and then continue to try to improve.

It is very easy to point out what is wrong or what could go wrong. It is much harder to come up with an actual solution and then deal with the questions and critiques.



The bar should be "Will this investment eventually end up paying off", not "is this change at least a net positive for now". We need to be thinking 100 years out, not 10 years.

It is all about "Will this change eventually be a good thing? When will we reap the benefits of this?"

If we eventually end up saving $100B a year, it is totally reasonable for the whole program to be a mess for 10 years. These numbers are nonsense and not even related to a specific policy. I'm just saying in general people need to respect the fact that big changes are hard, but that doesn't mean the cost:benefit analysis isn't favorable.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4463 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-09 16:47:35
August 09 2019 16:45 GMT
#34875
On August 10 2019 01:05 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 22:06 Grumbels wrote:
The most obvious problem with UBI is that it's untested. There are a myriad of known solutions to improving people's lives, such as single payer health care, rent control, unions, public banking. I don't think Yang is a very smart person, I listened to an hour long interview by him and he is pretty much economically illiterate and can't explain why UBI won't be captured by various cost increases, why it won't functionally replace existing welfare, why it's not effectively funded by a regressive tax, why people wouldn't borrow against it, why it doesn't include children and so on. Maybe UBI works, but why take the risk?

You're calling Yang economically illiterate and in the same post advocate for rent control and public banking. He actually has some of the more sane economic policies (carbon tax, relaxing zoning laws and implementing a VAT).

Carbon tax and VAT are both regressive taxes so it’s odd to see support for them here.

The gas for car aircon repair increased in price 62% in one day when they brought the tax in here.You’re living in a fantasy world if you think the carbon tax helps lower to mid income folks out.All that will happen with a 40/tonne us carbon tax is a ton of industry moves to Mexico unless you bring in bigger tariffs to offset the carbon tax.Yang pro tariff?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
Archeon
Profile Joined May 2011
3275 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-09 16:57:42
August 09 2019 16:46 GMT
#34876
On August 10 2019 00:41 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 10 2019 00:11 KwarK wrote:
On August 09 2019 23:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:
The environmentalist/leftist opposition to trump has very little to do with trade wars. Leftists generally aren't opposed to protectionism (the people talking negatively about the trade wars are generally capitalists who are slightly to the left of the current republican party), and environmentalists oppose him because he claims that man made climate change (or even climate change?) isn't real and because he wants to increase/accelerate earthly exploitation.

If Trump had a radical environmentalist agenda where he wanted to stop globalization to lower emissions caused by transportation (and also decrease consumption altogether), there would be very little backlash to that aspect of his policies from leftists or green voters. But that does not make up even the tiniest fraction of his argument, so it's irrelevant.

I think basically everyone has a vested interest in trade. Trade is a foundation upon which peace has been built in the modern era. China and Japan, for example, still have a lot of distrust, rivalry, and bad blood but they also need each other. The European Coal and Steel Community was explicitly created to achieve peace through trade and it has been an unqualified success.

Humans are inherently pretty dickish about other tribes but we’re also pretty greedy. It becomes a lot less appealing to bomb people when you’re trying to sell something to those people.


I don't disagree with any of this and I generally find myself a bit more pro-free trade than most of my comparably leftist friends. But I'm also pretty staunchly in the 'we all need to consume less' anticapitalism-camp - which I see as opposed to the 'free trade gives cheap goods to the consumers while providing jobs to people in poorer countries increasing living standards for all'-camp (even if I also agree with the descriptive statement I just made about that group).

Basically I think it's really difficult to balance environmental needs and causes (that I think trump everything in importance) with increasing living standards of the world's poorest 50% (which I think basically trumps everything other than the environment) and there's also some selfish 'I'm Norwegian so I want Norway to thrive' in there (which again is in conflict with both aforementioned goals as our obscene wealth is derived from harvesting resources that happened to be located in the sea outside my country and the harvest of which ruins the environment which is gonna most negatively affect those poorest 50% that I want to help). But this latter makes leftist Norwegians go 'we need to preserve local food production - that's one thing we cannot depend on the rest of the world for - but we also want to maintain some degree of animal welfare and decent worker rights, meaning that other countries that care less about these two will be able to produce far less expensive food - which means some tariffs need to be in place for the Norwegian consumer being willing to choose Norwegian-produced food which is a necessity for the preservation of Norwegian food producers.

I think trade wars are dumb as hell, if that's not clear. But I also think there are real reasons why a country might want to impose tariffs to protect local industry / worker rights - and I also think free trade goes hand in hand with a capitalistic pro-consumption society which I think we need to distance ourselves from. I don't see that transition as a particularly fun one to live through, however. And while Trump's reasons for engaging in a trade war has like, some tiny overlap with leftists in the 'protect local industry' part, every other argument he tries to articulate does not resonate at all with mainstream leftists reasons for being negative towards free trade.

Frankly, I also think some leftist opposition to 'free trade' is a relic from cold war opposition to IMF affixing economic aid with liberalization of economy (in a way that forced countries to liberalize their worker/property laws in ways that western workers/politicians would never have accepted), but I'm basing that on a collection of tidbits of information, I've never really delved into that myself.

Doesn't Norway check literally every box of "sucks for food production"? High wages, mostly mountains, long frost periods in a large part of the countryside. The only things I can see is a large coast of cool water which should make for good fishing grounds, but I don't think that's a realistic approach to feed 5 million people. Keeping self-sustaining food production alive seems pretty expensive to me.

Tbh I don't really see the need for countries to sustain their own food production in this day and age anyways, it's not like the majority of food providers in Europe, Africa, Asia and SA are going to collapse at the same time, even in the very unlikely case of a large scale war we'd still trade with these nations.

Like you mention the far leftist opposition to free trade stems from disliking global competition for the lower class, which in part makes it harder for the lower class to find decently paying jobs in western countries. Free trade somewhat undermines social capitalism.
On the flipside it keeps a lot of things affordable for said lower class, but it's hard to sell the status quo to people who aren't on the winning side of society.

I think Trump way overuses trade wars, but I vastly prefer them over actual wars. It's a neo-imperialist way of aggression, but at least it's a mostly bloodless one. And it's more that the term is used more nowadays, blockading/tarifs on enemies' products isn't exactly a new strategy (Kuba and NK come to mind, but also Napoleon f.e.). It also does hurt China, which is a country that's mostly stable due to it's economic progress, so there's a very slight chance that it might lead to the collapse of the regime.

I do find the specific case of the trade war vs Europe pretty silly though, mostly for diplomatic reasons.
low gravity, yes-yes!
hunts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2113 Posts
August 09 2019 16:47 GMT
#34877
On August 09 2019 21:51 Pangpootata wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 18:30 Acrofales wrote:
On August 09 2019 09:42 Dromar wrote:
On August 09 2019 09:35 GreenHorizons wrote:
On August 09 2019 09:18 Dromar wrote:
On August 09 2019 08:53 farvacola wrote:
The prices of simple goods targeted to and frequently consumed by the lower class would naturally rise in response to the sudden disposable income increase, ...


Do you believe the above because you think that poor people are not price-sensitive, or do you believe that the sellers of all consumer goods would simultaneously conspire to gouge consumers rather than compete for them by undercutting their competition? Is there a third option I've missed that leads you to believe the above? To be clear I'm thinking things like food, appliances, etc, goods and services that are NOT housing, education, and medical costs. Those 3 are a completely separate topic from what I'm talking about (and what I think you're talking about here).

If you believe what I've quoted above, do you believe that poverty is impossible to eliminate, because there will always be a group with the least money, and they will always be preyed upon (relative to groups that have more money)?

... and all kinds of easy credit would have their offer terms adjust in response the same way. The margins of poverty are not denominated in terms of sums like $1,000.00 a month, rather in 72+ month loans, 25+% interest rates on consumer credit, and 0% down adjustable rate mortgages


Sure. Do you think that people having more money makes them more susceptible to these types of things? Do you think poor people are just financially stupid and can't help themselves from falling for these types of scams, so giving them money is just giving the scammers money, but with more steps?

I really don't understand why you think people become more susceptible to scammers when they have more financial freedom. The examples you cite take advantage of poor people precisely because they have few financial options. Because they are poor, their only option to acquire a home/car/whatever is to take a bad deal.


Imagine you're a door to door bullshit salesman. You sell some worthless product for exorbitant prices so you can get a small slice of that profit.

You think your job gets easier or harder the month everyone's got a fresh $1000 in their pocket and credit offers up the wazzu in exchange for signing over that UBI to the creditor?


In Yang's theoretical UBI, that second part is not legal. You cannot borrow against your UBI payment.

Surely the bullshit salesman's job gets easier, if by no other virtue than having more customers. And I wouldn't argue against the idea that the very first month of people getting their UBI payment has a real chance of having some weird shit happen.

But overall, if the person sells that much more, then perhaps the product isn't as worthless as we are assuming. The only other option, as I see it, is to essentially say that poor people are stupid and incapable of making sound financial decisions. And I am very far from ready to subscribe to that.

edit: In fact, I'll go one further and say that the alternative to UBI does no better. Do you know how many people buy food with their EBT card, and then buy cigarettes and lotto tickets with their cash? Even if you really feel deep down that poor people are incapable of making sound financial decisions, the same problem exists with service-based welfare programs.

Wait, you think the merits of snake oil should be judged by the number of people buying into their lies?

And yes, I use snake oil as a catch-all representative of "healing crystals", "homeopathy", or any of the multi-level marketing scams regardless of whether their products are books, plastic containers, women's clothing or vitamin supplements.


Healing crystals and homeopathy do absolutely nothing physically but they make people feel good mentally and give them peace of mind, increasing their psychological well-being and overall quality of life. Is that really different from the effects of listing to music, watching movies, etc?

Show nested quote +
On August 09 2019 09:42 Dromar wrote:
On August 09 2019 09:35 GreenHorizons wrote:
On August 09 2019 09:18 Dromar wrote:
On August 09 2019 08:53 farvacola wrote:
The prices of simple goods targeted to and frequently consumed by the lower class would naturally rise in response to the sudden disposable income increase, ...


Do you believe the above because you think that poor people are not price-sensitive, or do you believe that the sellers of all consumer goods would simultaneously conspire to gouge consumers rather than compete for them by undercutting their competition? Is there a third option I've missed that leads you to believe the above? To be clear I'm thinking things like food, appliances, etc, goods and services that are NOT housing, education, and medical costs. Those 3 are a completely separate topic from what I'm talking about (and what I think you're talking about here).

If you believe what I've quoted above, do you believe that poverty is impossible to eliminate, because there will always be a group with the least money, and they will always be preyed upon (relative to groups that have more money)?

... and all kinds of easy credit would have their offer terms adjust in response the same way. The margins of poverty are not denominated in terms of sums like $1,000.00 a month, rather in 72+ month loans, 25+% interest rates on consumer credit, and 0% down adjustable rate mortgages


Sure. Do you think that people having more money makes them more susceptible to these types of things? Do you think poor people are just financially stupid and can't help themselves from falling for these types of scams, so giving them money is just giving the scammers money, but with more steps?

I really don't understand why you think people become more susceptible to scammers when they have more financial freedom. The examples you cite take advantage of poor people precisely because they have few financial options. Because they are poor, their only option to acquire a home/car/whatever is to take a bad deal.


Imagine you're a door to door bullshit salesman. You sell some worthless product for exorbitant prices so you can get a small slice of that profit.

You think your job gets easier or harder the month everyone's got a fresh $1000 in their pocket and credit offers up the wazzu in exchange for signing over that UBI to the creditor?


In Yang's theoretical UBI, that second part is not legal. You cannot borrow against your UBI payment.

Surely the bullshit salesman's job gets easier, if by no other virtue than having more customers. And I wouldn't argue against the idea that the very first month of people getting their UBI payment has a real chance of having some weird shit happen.

But overall, if the person sells that much more, then perhaps the product isn't as worthless as we are assuming. The only other option, as I see it, is to essentially say that poor people are stupid and incapable of making sound financial decisions. And I am very far from ready to subscribe to that.

edit: In fact, I'll go one further and say that the alternative to UBI does no better. Do you know how many people buy food with their EBT card, and then buy cigarettes and lotto tickets with their cash? Even if you really feel deep down that poor people are incapable of making sound financial decisions, the same problem exists with service-based welfare programs.


Milton Friedman advocated removing all social welfare and replacing it with a negative income tax (paying people proportionately based on how much their income is below a predefined level of income). Currently the US government spends about 18k a year per person on welfare including overhead costs for welfare programs. Do they get 18k worth of value? Perhaps most poor people know how to help themselves better than "experts", although there will definitely be a few exceptions.


People die because they get persuaded into using healing crystals homeopathy and other woo rather than getting actual medical procedures done. Until you start hearing about many people dying due to deciding to watch a movie and listen to music instead of getting chemo or other life saving medical procedures, because they believe said movie and music will make them better, you can't make that comparison.
twitch.tv/huntstv 7x legend streamer
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-09 16:50:32
August 09 2019 16:47 GMT
#34878
On August 10 2019 01:43 brian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 10 2019 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
I feel like a lot of people who complain about stuff being untested or way too new haven't worked in actual development. Stuff being shitty at first is always true. It is amazingly uncommon for some group of people to fix major issues with a quick, easy fix. Often times you gotta start with something new, which is a total mess at first, but rapidly improves, then starts to improve more slowly...then refinement...more refinement...more refinement...annnnnd...good enough.

The world is plain and simply full of low-ambition cowards with no idea what it takes to make the world better. They weren't there when people were developing vaccines or electricity or any of these wonderful things we have today. They are a bunch of mediocre...people... who do nothing but exist in the world and reap a load of benefits they've done nothing to deserve. All they can think to do is say "but that won't work amazingly at first, lets just keep rotting in our own filth instead".

"Why try to make a sewage system with all these leaks and problems when I can just shit in a hole outside?"



i wager you probably aren’t talking code development per se, but on the flip side of this you have the adage ‘i can save hours of planning with weeks of development.’

i work in IT development, we don’t release things to production or for public consumption if it isn’t passing our tests so idk, this generally doesn’t resonate. if it is shitty, nobody outside development sees it because it gets tossed. the steps you describe certainly
happen, but we don’t use the production// the general public as our testing ground.


You're right that I'm not talking about coding. I work in semiconductor device R&D. We spend millions of dollars and years of time working on something totally different that is 1/3 as good as our current cheap option. A totally new approach may EVENTUALLY be amazing, but it is important to remember it was total shit for 5 years first. But public policy is different. You can't just do it all in a lab until its ready for prime time. You gotta just do your best to do as well as you can at first and then be ready to make adjustments.

I imagine a lot of closed door conversations go like this:

"This change will save 100B a year in 10 years"

"But will it be shit until then?"

"Yeah"

"So then we lose the next election and it gets scrapped anyway, so why bother"

""
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
August 09 2019 16:55 GMT
#34879
Judge rules funds can't be withheld from sanctuary cities:

https://www.oregonlive.com/crime/2019/08/feds-cant-withhold-public-safety-grants-for-oregon-city-of-portland-based-on-sanctuary-law-judge-rules.html?fbclid=IwAR0boptWymmh4yunDZLlJui4gGpQ4P-iOK1A4uOkc-MGZ4uItGZrR9FWshs

Big news for Oregon! Suck on that, Sessions!

A judge has barred the Trump administration from withholding public safety grants from the state and the city of Portland over Oregon’s sanctuary law that directs police not to help federal agents enforce immigration policies.

U.S. District Judge Michael J. McShane also said the federal government can’t impose immigration-related conditions on the grant awards.

McShane, who is seated in Eugene, issued his 44-page decision late Wednesday in a case brought in November by Gov. Kate Brown, Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum and the city against President Donald Trump and U.S. Attorney General William Barr.

He found that two federal statutes unconstitutionally ban local and state governments and agencies from enacting laws or policies that limit communication with federal officials about immigration or someone’s citizenship status.

McShane ruled the statutes, identified as Sections 1373 and 1644 of the federal code, violate the 10th Amendment, which says any power not expressly given to the federal government falls to the states or their people.

Since 2017, the federal government has placed restrictions on Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance grants, known as JAG. The grants provide money to states, cities, counties and tribes for criminal justice personnel, training and equipment.

The conditions say the grant recipients must allow immigration agents access to prisons or jails , must give advance notice to federal officials when prisoners wanted on immigration detainers are to be released, and must certify that they’re complying with the federal statutes.

But McShane said Oregon and Portland “would, under any of these circumstances, risk public safety by eroding trust with immigrant communities or abandoning critical law enforcement initiatives funded by the Byrne JAG Program.”

He granted a permanent injunction and ordered the federal government to give the grants to Oregon for fiscal 2017 and 2018 that it withheld, with no conditions or penalties – a total of almost $5 million.

“The President of the United States and his Attorney General seek to advance their policy priorities by pressuring states and localities to comply with two immigration-related laws and by withholding federal funds from jurisdictions which refuse to assist immigration authorities,’”the judge noted.

McShane agreed with lawyers for the state and city, who argued the federal statutes are “unconstitutional intrusions upon their legislative independence” and that the funding conditions are contrary to the intent of Congress.

“Instances when the Attorney General may ‘withhold or re-allocate’ Byrne JAG funds were carefully delineated by Congress. When Congress wanted grantees to engage in or refrain from certain types of conduct — even information sharing — it provided for specific and measured penalties,” the judge wrote. “If Congress had shared the same concerns about grantees disclosing immigration-related information, it could have enacted analogous penalties. But it did not.’’

The state had expected to receive $2,034,945 from the grants for 2017 and $2,092,704 for 2018, while Portland expected to receive $385,515 for 2017 and $391,694 for 2018.

But the state didn’t receive notice of the grant awards for either year until last month because the U.S. Justice Department expressed concerns about the state’s sanctuary law. The state law bars local law enforcement from helping federal officials identify or detain anyone solely for violating immigration law.

Although the Justice Department made the money available to the state in July, the state can’t accept or draw from the money without risking penalties due to the sanctuary law, according to court records.

The city of Portland received its 2017 award last October but has yet to receive its 2018 award. It also would risk penalties if it accepted and used the money.

The Trump administration argued that the Justice Department’s pressure on states and municipalities to repeal their allegedly incompatible laws and policies “are essential to a properly functioning system of federal immigration laws,’’ according to court records.

Until 2017, the state had received the federal grants annually since the program’s creation in 2005, using more than $26 million to support programs for mental health treatment, technology improvement and drug treatment and enforcement. The state would like to use the 2017 and 2018 money to support specialty courts for drugs crimes or mental health cases or nonviolent felony offenders as well as to provide assistance to local crime victims.

Portland also had received the money every year until 2017, using it to buy bulletproof vests and special-threat plates for officers, acquire tactical medical kits, install GPS systems in its cars and add two victim advocates to the Police Bureau’s sex crimes unit. The city also has distributed some of the money to Multnomah County and Gresham to support a neighborhood prosecutor or an additional probation/parole officer.

McShane’s ruling mirrors similar ones by federal judges elsewhere in the country.

In December, for example, a federal judge in New York issued a permanent injunction barring immigration conditions on the grants for New York state, New Jersey, Connecticut, Virginia, Washington, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New York City. Last October, a federal judge in California also ruled that the grant conditions were unconstitutional.

The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled a year ago that Trump’s order to withhold federal grant money based on state sanctuary laws violates separation of power principles that gave spending power to Congress. But the same appeals court ruled last month in favor of the Trump administration’s immigration conditions for other federal police grants.

-- Maxine Bernstein
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4463 Posts
August 09 2019 17:10 GMT
#34880
On August 09 2019 22:44 farvacola wrote:
Its both the dual party problem and the lack of proportional representation, fixing those would definitely open up the field in a way the US desperately needs.

Because the people in the big cities are the ones most reliant on the current system but hate admitting it.They’re relying on food from hundreds of miles away.

Take away the consumerist capitalist society, close the stores, what do the people in the big cities actually do all day after that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
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