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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 947

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
September 24 2017 23:02 GMT
#18921
I wonder if the SPD is gonna wait for the 3 party coalition to fall apart and then come in with full force demanding more than their share of the votes "deserves". Could backfire immensely though.
passive quaranstream fan
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-24 23:07:43
September 24 2017 23:06 GMT
#18922
The refugee topic is perhaps so pointed in how strongly it intersects with a broad range of other issues of concern. A government consensus for short-sighted decisions that very strongly do not reflect the views of the masses. Cultural and governing differences among member states that are not flexible to any old order from Germany. Economic and demographic stagnation and ill-fated attempts to reverse them. The question of whether the EU can deal with these issues ("EU reform" is always thinly veiled code for "more integration" so that phrase doesn't deserve to be taken seriously). Dealing with even more unemployed individuals without the skills to contribute positively to economics, but with strong tendencies to contribute to crime and to terrorism. And the laughable hypocrisy of German/EU leadership, who can seamlessly transition from "open the floodgates" to "we gotta clamp down on immigration and make deals with Turkey" in but a moment's notice.

Oh sure, it's not a single, overarching issue that trumps all others. But it should be no surprise that immigration alone gets so much attention. What should be more surprising is how despite proving to be one remarkably ineffective leader and a flip-flopper, that Merkel continues to find a coalition to stay in charge. Though given that many of the loudest "Hillary Clinton isn't even that bad" voices come out of Germany, perhaps I shouldn't be surprised. The East Germans, at the very least, seem to be a little more sane. The few of them that are left, that is.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-24 23:13:40
September 24 2017 23:13 GMT
#18923
Perhaps because we're still able to recognise that critizing change is not enough, you actually have to offer a better solution, which the AfD still cannot do because they're not going to roll back globalization and turn everybody into a three child, blond-haired, blue eyed family with a dachshund.

Which btw even the party leader admitted on television this evening, he had no problem admitting that it's a protest party and that they haven't even got a pension plan. They're just a 'screw you' to the establishment, nothing else.

Taking someone with imperfect answers but at least experience and honest expectations who can accept realities over a some kind of cynical jerk who kicks down at whoever they can find is the reasonable way to go. And even if 13% of the voters think differently, the majority of people are still smart enough to get this.
Clonester
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany2808 Posts
September 24 2017 23:18 GMT
#18924
On September 25 2017 08:02 Artisreal wrote:
I wonder if the SPD is gonna wait for the 3 party coalition to fall apart and then come in with full force demanding more than their share of the votes "deserves". Could backfire immensely though.


A minority Gouvernment by CDU/CSU and FDP are in my opinion more realistic then a CDU/CSU-SPD gouvernment, even if a possible 3 party coalition falls apart midterm.
Bomber, Attacker, DD, SOMEBODY, NiKo, Nex, Spidii
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-24 23:23:46
September 24 2017 23:21 GMT
#18925
On September 25 2017 08:06 LegalLord wrote:
The refugee topic is perhaps so pointed in how strongly it intersects with a broad range of other issues of concern. A government consensus for short-sighted decisions that very strongly do not reflect the views of the masses. Cultural and governing differences among member states that are not flexible to any old order from Germany. Economic and demographic stagnation and ill-fated attempts to reverse them. The question of whether the EU can deal with these issues ("EU reform" is always thinly veiled code for "more integration" so that phrase doesn't deserve to be taken seriously). Dealing with even more unemployed individuals without the skills to contribute positively to economics, but with strong tendencies to contribute to crime and to terrorism. And the laughable hypocrisy of German/EU leadership, who can seamlessly transition from "open the floodgates" to "we gotta clamp down on immigration and make deals with Turkey" in but a moment's notice.

Oh sure, it's not a single, overarching issue that trumps all others. But it should be no surprise that immigration alone gets so much attention. What should be more surprising is how despite proving to be one remarkably ineffective leader and a flip-flopper, that Merkel continues to find a coalition to stay in charge. Though given that many of the loudest "Hillary Clinton isn't even that bad" voices come out of Germany, perhaps I shouldn't be surprised. The East Germans, at the very least, seem to be a little more sane. The few of them that are left, that is.

you continue to support the wildest theories about other countries' politics without a clue about them.

I could bold more but it's not really worth the effort.

On September 25 2017 08:18 Clonester wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 08:02 Artisreal wrote:
I wonder if the SPD is gonna wait for the 3 party coalition to fall apart and then come in with full force demanding more than their share of the votes "deserves". Could backfire immensely though.


A minority Gouvernment by CDU/CSU and FDP are in my opinion more realistic then a CDU/CSU-SPD gouvernment, even if a possible 3 party coalition falls apart midterm.

A minority government is possible if CDU+FDP work with the AfD, other than that I don't consider anything likely.
passive quaranstream fan
Clonester
Profile Joined August 2014
Germany2808 Posts
September 24 2017 23:33 GMT
#18926
On September 25 2017 08:21 Artisreal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 08:06 LegalLord wrote:
The refugee topic is perhaps so pointed in how strongly it intersects with a broad range of other issues of concern. A government consensus for short-sighted decisions that very strongly do not reflect the views of the masses. Cultural and governing differences among member states that are not flexible to any old order from Germany. Economic and demographic stagnation and ill-fated attempts to reverse them. The question of whether the EU can deal with these issues ("EU reform" is always thinly veiled code for "more integration" so that phrase doesn't deserve to be taken seriously). Dealing with even more unemployed individuals without the skills to contribute positively to economics, but with strong tendencies to contribute to crime and to terrorism. And the laughable hypocrisy of German/EU leadership, who can seamlessly transition from "open the floodgates" to "we gotta clamp down on immigration and make deals with Turkey" in but a moment's notice.

Oh sure, it's not a single, overarching issue that trumps all others. But it should be no surprise that immigration alone gets so much attention. What should be more surprising is how despite proving to be one remarkably ineffective leader and a flip-flopper, that Merkel continues to find a coalition to stay in charge. Though given that many of the loudest "Hillary Clinton isn't even that bad" voices come out of Germany, perhaps I shouldn't be surprised. The East Germans, at the very least, seem to be a little more sane. The few of them that are left, that is.

you continue to support the wildest theories about other countries' politics without a clue about them.

I could bold more but it's not really worth the effort.

Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 08:18 Clonester wrote:
On September 25 2017 08:02 Artisreal wrote:
I wonder if the SPD is gonna wait for the 3 party coalition to fall apart and then come in with full force demanding more than their share of the votes "deserves". Could backfire immensely though.


A minority Gouvernment by CDU/CSU and FDP are in my opinion more realistic then a CDU/CSU-SPD gouvernment, even if a possible 3 party coalition falls apart midterm.

A minority government is possible if CDU+FDP work with the AfD, other than that I don't consider anything likely.


Well, if they ever want votes back from the AfD, they better work with them instead of the greens or the losses on the right flank will increase more and more in the next years for CDU/CSU.
And once in office, they could also try to get votes from the greens or the SPD, depending on which project they try to push trough the parliament. In the end they have to work togeather with the greens or SPD anyway, because the Bundesrat, the 2nd chamber of german law creation, wount be in their hands.

The FDP members I know will all vote against a coalition with the greens, no matter what. And the FDP leadership promissed to ask all their members about this project. I see the minority gouvernment a real chance... a weak gouvernment of this kind could also be in the interest of the SPD, they would have a easy time hunting them in the parliament, if they will choose the right leaders. (Hint, not Schulz or Maas)
Bomber, Attacker, DD, SOMEBODY, NiKo, Nex, Spidii
TheNewEra
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany3128 Posts
September 25 2017 00:09 GMT
#18927
still amazed that a Russian(LL is a Russian right? If not, take this back) is happy that a party which is happy about WW2 soldiers accomplishments went into our parliament.
Midas <3 Casy <3 BeSt <3 | Pray to Doh-men, heathens! | Zwischen Harz und Heideland
Nixer
Profile Joined July 2011
2774 Posts
September 25 2017 00:12 GMT
#18928
On September 25 2017 09:09 TheNewEra wrote:
still amazed that a Russian(LL is a Russian right? If not, take this back) is happy that a party which is happy about WW2 soldiers accomplishments went into our parliament.

Yup. Russian living in the US.
Graphics
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22073 Posts
September 25 2017 01:43 GMT
#18929
On September 25 2017 09:12 Nixer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 09:09 TheNewEra wrote:
still amazed that a Russian(LL is a Russian right? If not, take this back) is happy that a party which is happy about WW2 soldiers accomplishments went into our parliament.

Yup. Russian living in the US.

Who pretended to be British at one point*
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 25 2017 05:02 GMT
#18930
On September 25 2017 09:09 TheNewEra wrote:
still amazed that a Russian(LL is a Russian right? If not, take this back) is happy that a party which is happy about WW2 soldiers accomplishments went into our parliament.

Don't look like no fascists to me, just a nationalist party and a status quo of crying fascist at everything that moves. See my comments a few pages back on Hitler's legacy as well. I might disagree with ~85% of what AfD wants but for that other 15%, if they can knock the CDU-led coalition down a peg then it wouldn't be a moment too soon.

And I can't say I'm happy with such a meager victory. 20% would have been meaningful, this is more like a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-25 05:21:57
September 25 2017 05:17 GMT
#18931
The standards in Germany are a little bit different. This is the first time a borderline racist / nationalist /whatever term you like party moves into the Bundestag. The golden rule until now was Josef Strauß "there must be no democratically legitimsed party right of the CSU", so this is really fucked up for a lot of people, even if they "only" got 12%.

LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 25 2017 05:19 GMT
#18932
If that's considered "fucked up" then perhaps it's worth it just to see some people come to terms with the absurdity of their political norms.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
September 25 2017 05:27 GMT
#18933
this is not an absurdity in the context of German politics, this was what post war politics was like here. You don't go around and tell that you're going to "hunt merkel and take back the country for its people", that wasn't a thing in German parliamentary politics until now. If anything it was something some nutjob who runs a hoax party brings up, but not something you hear from the third biggest party in the country.

And this wasn't just a consensus of the left, Strauß was a CSU politician himself, this was a position of the democratic right until now.

The CDU got their worst result since 1949, the SPD got the worst result in 150 years. This is by no means just another election and this hopefully will not be normalised.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-25 06:40:17
September 25 2017 06:37 GMT
#18934
nvm its not worth the time
passive quaranstream fan
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4139 Posts
September 25 2017 07:34 GMT
#18935
On September 25 2017 06:07 virpi wrote:
@refugee topic: Yes, 2015 was managed poorly. No denial. But it's simply absurd to think that Germany will suffer substantially from the mass immigration. It will cost a lot of money and it also will lead to some problems in urban areas. But there are more pressing issues: EU, digitalization, taxes, the healthcare system, pensions, education, etc.


My biggest worry is that CDU invite >500.000 refugees yearly unannounced. Germany will suffer from that amount. They said "200.000 refugees maximum yearly" but this exclude familiy reunifcation.
My city in NRW (120.000 inhabitants) is a nighmare since then. I cannot go to inner city anymore, feels more black than white people around.

CDU wins with 33,0%. Not even every third person is for CDU. Bayern has the biggest CSU loss, they had 49,3% in 2013, now 38,0%.
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
September 25 2017 07:47 GMT
#18936
On September 25 2017 14:17 Nyxisto wrote:
The standards in Germany are a little bit different. This is the first time a borderline racist / nationalist /whatever term you like party moves into the Bundestag. The golden rule until now was Josef Strauß "there must be no democratically legitimsed party right of the CSU", so this is really fucked up for a lot of people, even if they "only" got 12%.

I'd drop the "borderline" and be more specific: Part of the party leadership represents genuine democratic interests. However, that wing of the party (pretty much the ones around Petry) has lost power in favor of elements that do embrace racism, anti-Semitism and nationalistic viewpoints. They're associating themselves with organisations that are already under surveillance due to being right-wing extremist (the Identitarian movement comes to mind).

They, as a party, have decided to be open and even welcoming to all kinds of extremist elements. People who called for the shooting of refugees at the border, people who want homosexuals to be jailed, people who want to celebrate German WW2 achievements. All of them and more are part of the core identity of the AfD at this point and the party as a whole has decided to keep them around.

We're (hopefully) in for a bit of a shitshow when those two major movements within the AfD eventually clash. I wouldn't be surprised if a third or even half of that party ends up tied up in legal issues due to these extremist views. By all means, work with those who show an actual respect for the German constitution, for German traditions and values. Those who overstep those boundaries do not need to be tolerated and not doing so is a core part of the design of the German post-WW2 system as a whole.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11735 Posts
September 25 2017 10:05 GMT
#18937
On September 25 2017 16:47 r.Evo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 14:17 Nyxisto wrote:
The standards in Germany are a little bit different. This is the first time a borderline racist / nationalist /whatever term you like party moves into the Bundestag. The golden rule until now was Josef Strauß "there must be no democratically legitimsed party right of the CSU", so this is really fucked up for a lot of people, even if they "only" got 12%.

I'd drop the "borderline" and be more specific: Part of the party leadership represents genuine democratic interests. However, that wing of the party (pretty much the ones around Petry) has lost power in favor of elements that do embrace racism, anti-Semitism and nationalistic viewpoints. They're associating themselves with organisations that are already under surveillance due to being right-wing extremist (the Identitarian movement comes to mind).

They, as a party, have decided to be open and even welcoming to all kinds of extremist elements. People who called for the shooting of refugees at the border, people who want homosexuals to be jailed, people who want to celebrate German WW2 achievements. All of them and more are part of the core identity of the AfD at this point and the party as a whole has decided to keep them around.

We're (hopefully) in for a bit of a shitshow when those two major movements within the AfD eventually clash. I wouldn't be surprised if a third or even half of that party ends up tied up in legal issues due to these extremist views. By all means, work with those who show an actual respect for the German constitution, for German traditions and values. Those who overstep those boundaries do not need to be tolerated and not doing so is a core part of the design of the German post-WW2 system as a whole.


I really hope they will prove as incompetent as any other extremist right-wing party has so far. Every time the NPD got into a Landtag, they had major infighting, didn't get anything done, and had amazing amounts of corruption. They usually weren't reelected afterwards.
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10137 Posts
September 25 2017 10:16 GMT
#18938
I am perfectly fine with a democratic "fuck you" if there are no politician that represents me in a reasonable manner. I find the afd victory to get into german politics repugnant.

I don't know a thing about german politics to see if there is a % of the population who could (in my view) legitimaly vote for a "fuck you" but maybe you should try to see how you got there in the first place rather than continue to be dismissal about what is going as if it is only an statistical rarity which won't get to be the norm.

And if the answer to that is only "politicians who exploited racism and xenophobic tendencies due to circumstancial factors", you are in for a long list of dissapointments. Because either you already have a good chunk of your population being racist, so the situation will get normalized and you will have to deal with it anyways, or you are continuing to ignore the people who are eager to tell you go fuck yourself if ignored.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
September 25 2017 11:42 GMT
#18939
On September 25 2017 16:34 Dingodile wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 06:07 virpi wrote:
@refugee topic: Yes, 2015 was managed poorly. No denial. But it's simply absurd to think that Germany will suffer substantially from the mass immigration. It will cost a lot of money and it also will lead to some problems in urban areas. But there are more pressing issues: EU, digitalization, taxes, the healthcare system, pensions, education, etc.


My biggest worry is that CDU invite >500.000 refugees yearly unannounced. Germany will suffer from that amount. They said "200.000 refugees maximum yearly" but this exclude familiy reunifcation.
My city in NRW (120.000 inhabitants) is a nighmare since then. I cannot go to inner city anymore, feels more black than white people around.

CDU wins with 33,0%. Not even every third person is for CDU. Bayern has the biggest CSU loss, they had 49,3% in 2013, now 38,0%.

Invite is the wrong word.
Shelter makes your stance much clearer.
passive quaranstream fan
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
September 25 2017 12:31 GMT
#18940
On September 25 2017 19:05 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2017 16:47 r.Evo wrote:
On September 25 2017 14:17 Nyxisto wrote:
The standards in Germany are a little bit different. This is the first time a borderline racist / nationalist /whatever term you like party moves into the Bundestag. The golden rule until now was Josef Strauß "there must be no democratically legitimsed party right of the CSU", so this is really fucked up for a lot of people, even if they "only" got 12%.

I'd drop the "borderline" and be more specific: Part of the party leadership represents genuine democratic interests. However, that wing of the party (pretty much the ones around Petry) has lost power in favor of elements that do embrace racism, anti-Semitism and nationalistic viewpoints. They're associating themselves with organisations that are already under surveillance due to being right-wing extremist (the Identitarian movement comes to mind).

They, as a party, have decided to be open and even welcoming to all kinds of extremist elements. People who called for the shooting of refugees at the border, people who want homosexuals to be jailed, people who want to celebrate German WW2 achievements. All of them and more are part of the core identity of the AfD at this point and the party as a whole has decided to keep them around.

We're (hopefully) in for a bit of a shitshow when those two major movements within the AfD eventually clash. I wouldn't be surprised if a third or even half of that party ends up tied up in legal issues due to these extremist views. By all means, work with those who show an actual respect for the German constitution, for German traditions and values. Those who overstep those boundaries do not need to be tolerated and not doing so is a core part of the design of the German post-WW2 system as a whole.


I really hope they will prove as incompetent as any other extremist right-wing party has so far. Every time the NPD got into a Landtag, they had major infighting, didn't get anything done, and had amazing amounts of corruption. They usually weren't reelected afterwards.

They took less than 12h to start breaking up.

Petry announced starting her own parliamentary group, a couple people left a state parliament faction and now Weidel is officially asking her to leave. That was a lot quicker than expected.

On September 25 2017 19:16 Godwrath wrote:
I am perfectly fine with a democratic "fuck you" if there are no politician that represents me in a reasonable manner. I find the afd victory to get into german politics repugnant.

I don't know a thing about german politics to see if there is a % of the population who could (in my view) legitimaly vote for a "fuck you" but maybe you should try to see how you got there in the first place rather than continue to be dismissal about what is going as if it is only an statistical rarity which won't get to be the norm.

And if the answer to that is only "politicians who exploited racism and xenophobic tendencies due to circumstancial factors", you are in for a long list of dissapointments. Because either you already have a good chunk of your population being racist, so the situation will get normalized and you will have to deal with it anyways, or you are continuing to ignore the people who are eager to tell you go fuck yourself if ignored.

For what it's worth 60% of AfD voters said they voted AfD because they're disappointed with other parties. All in all I think it's completely unfair to classify all AfD voters under the same umbrella as what some of the AfD leadership is up to.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
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