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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 839

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9275 Posts
May 07 2017 18:01 GMT
#16761
65 to 35 % what a stomp lmao
You're now breathing manually
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
May 07 2017 18:04 GMT
#16762
Thank God France
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:04 GMT
#16763
Brillant display of power from the ruling class, they managed to sell a marketing product and materialize a pure bubble in a matter of months; from noname to youngest president of the fifth world power in less than 3 years, well done, well done
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10843 Posts
May 07 2017 18:06 GMT
#16764
Why blame the system and not your totally incapable left?
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12387 Posts
May 07 2017 18:06 GMT
#16765
On May 08 2017 03:00 TheDwf wrote:
Estimations:

Macron 65,1
Le Pen 34,9
Participation rate 74,7%


I literally spent the entire week telling people that no, just because Brexit and Trump, that doesn't mean you can't trust polling anymore under any circumstances, you are still allowed to think about things.

So I'd like to thank reality for this estimation o/
No will to live, no wish to die
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:07 GMT
#16766
On May 08 2017 03:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2017 03:00 TheDwf wrote:
Estimations:

Macron 65,1
Le Pen 34,9
Participation rate 74,7%


I literally spent the entire week telling people that no, just because Brexit and Trump, that doesn't mean you can't trust polling anymore under any circumstances, you are still allowed to think about things.

So I'd like to thank reality for this estimation o/

Yeah people really went full stupid on this supposed streak, as if France was going to give itself to the far-right lol
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12908 Posts
May 07 2017 18:08 GMT
#16767
Fuck I predicted 70, sorry I failed so badly :/.
WriterMaru
lastpuritan
Profile Joined December 2014
United States540 Posts
May 07 2017 18:10 GMT
#16768
Je vous félicite pour votre victoire, les Français.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28738 Posts
May 07 2017 18:11 GMT
#16769
On May 08 2017 03:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2017 03:00 TheDwf wrote:
Estimations:

Macron 65,1
Le Pen 34,9
Participation rate 74,7%


I literally spent the entire week telling people that no, just because Brexit and Trump, that doesn't mean you can't trust polling anymore under any circumstances, you are still allowed to think about things.

So I'd like to thank reality for this estimation o/


Same here :D
Moderator
Karis Vas Ryaar
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States4396 Posts
May 07 2017 18:12 GMT
#16770
At least now Nate Silver won't have to keep explaining the difference between a 20 point lead and a 2-4 point lead.
"I'm not agreeing with a lot of Virus's decisions but they are working" Tasteless. Ipl4 Losers Bracket Virus 2-1 Maru
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:13 GMT
#16771
Le Pen trying to paint herself as the head of the opposition, go back to your cave you useless vulture
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
May 07 2017 18:15 GMT
#16772
On May 08 2017 03:04 TheDwf wrote:
Brillant display of power from the ruling class, they managed to sell a marketing product and materialize a pure bubble in a matter of months; from noname to youngest president of the fifth world power in less than 3 years, well done, well done


I guess if he wasn't like that, you'd be criticizing him for being a career politicians right now ...
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:21 GMT
#16773
On May 08 2017 03:15 opisska wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2017 03:04 TheDwf wrote:
Brillant display of power from the ruling class, they managed to sell a marketing product and materialize a pure bubble in a matter of months; from noname to youngest president of the fifth world power in less than 3 years, well done, well done


I guess if he wasn't like that, you'd be criticizing him for being a career politicians right now ...

I voted for someone who had 58 years of cumulated mandate in his life and does politics for 35 years

None of you guys were in France to witness the avalanche of media hype around Macron, even Sarkozy in 2007 wasn't as pushed forward by obscenely complacent journalists
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
May 07 2017 18:26 GMT
#16774
On May 08 2017 02:16 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2017 00:36 LegalLord wrote:
I'm sure that we on this forum disproportionately belong to the "benefit from the status quo" group so it's hard to see where things are going badly unless you look well beyond your own experience. If I were looking at only my own situation I too would assert that everyone of the "other group" is just idiots who don't "get it" at all, and in a rather aggressive manner too.

As for this election, it's not particularly interesting because the result is already pretty much known. I can certainly say that I personally don't approve of most of what Le Pen stands for, and the fascist connections aren't lost on any of us (even though I wouldn't say that she herself looks like a fascist). But she does stand against the EU in a rather principled manner, which I can certainly respect and support even if everything else is at least a little troubling. In a time when most politicians seem to deviate pretty strongly from the spirit of what they promise while campaigning (even if, on an atomic level, you could compare campaign points to reality and find that it's not "that" off, the shift is much more significant), it's important to try to find someone who will be committed to a Eurosceptic message even as they become more aware of the realities of how difficult making the right decision will be.

Oh well. In reality Macron will probably do more damage to the EU's future than Le Pen ever could. We're not quite at the point of when it's going to come apart so the best way to ensure that happens is to continue on the path it has currently carved for itself.

I assume most of us are millenials and our generation hardly benefited much from the status quo. We're the first generation in forever which isn't making more money than their parents at the same age,unemployment for the young is double that of the average, they're stuck with massive student debt in some countries, can barely afford to move out of our parents home, has to bear the massive amount of future liabilities caused by the way our welfare states work etc. I can continue for a while but you get the point.

We're also almost all of the educated, multilingual, city-based class who like to travel. While youth in general might be worse off we're not really the fraction of it that suffers the most from the grim outlook for youth employment.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:33 GMT
#16775
Just read that there are 4.2 millions of white/nulls ballots. So far abstention is estimated at 25,3%, i.e. 12 millions. So no-vote reaches 16.2 millions.

Macron is given at 65.5% of expressed votes, so this would be 20.5 millions.
Le Pen would get 10.8 millions, rofl, not even 11 millions...
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
May 07 2017 18:33 GMT
#16776
On May 08 2017 01:50 Nyxisto wrote:
Also buying property in Vienna is pretty high up the luxury list. Home ownership isn't that great of an asset any more anyway, renting and having the flexibility to move is preferable. Home ownership rate in Austria, Switzerland and Germany is very low but it has prevented quite a lot of trouble that countries like Italy and Spain have had.

Dunno how much it differs in tiny countries considering that both countries I'm from are large with no particular scarcity of available land for housing outside of a couple of megacities. But I can't help but feel it would be a pretty shitty life to never be able to buy a house and live in one place for decades. Of course you can't always expect to keep the same job forever but a job lost being a cross-country (or cross-EU) job search is a particularly troubling development in terms of quality of life. Also makes it shitty to attempt to have a family which manifests itself in the rather dismal demographics that Europe in general has.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-07 18:35:52
May 07 2017 18:34 GMT
#16777
Austrian "conservative" foreign minister (who demands to build concentration camps for refugees on islands not belonging to Austria, permanently closed Schengen borders, is a fan of Orban...) on twitter: "congratulations to macron. Left politics have been voted out."

Somebody tell him to read up on Le Pen's program.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
May 07 2017 18:40 GMT
#16778
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Reasons for abstention:

I refuse to choose between two candidates that I totally reject
I don't reject them but none of them correspond to my ideas
Whatever I vote, it won't change anything, Macron will win
Not available
Not interested in politics

Reasons for Macron vote:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Opposing Le Pen
The political renewal he embodies
His program
His personality

Reasons for Le Pen vote:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Makro
Profile Joined March 2011
France16890 Posts
May 07 2017 18:42 GMT
#16779
round 2 incoming in 2022 with a higher score for the far right
Matthew 5:10 "Blessed are those who are persecuted because of shitposting, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven".
TL+ Member
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
May 07 2017 18:42 GMT
#16780
On May 08 2017 03:33 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2017 01:50 Nyxisto wrote:
Also buying property in Vienna is pretty high up the luxury list. Home ownership isn't that great of an asset any more anyway, renting and having the flexibility to move is preferable. Home ownership rate in Austria, Switzerland and Germany is very low but it has prevented quite a lot of trouble that countries like Italy and Spain have had.

Dunno how much it differs in tiny countries considering that both countries I'm from are large with no particular scarcity of available land for housing outside of a couple of megacities. But I can't help but feel it would be a pretty shitty life to never be able to buy a house and live in one place for decades. Of course you can't always expect to keep the same job forever but a job lost being a cross-country (or cross-EU) job search is a particularly troubling development in terms of quality of life. Also makes it shitty to attempt to have a family which manifests itself in the rather dismal demographics that Europe in general has.


Well what can you do, we've been steadily moving from autonomy and self-subsistence towards more closely knit, urban societies. In that context buying a house, especially in today's economic situation where whole regions can decay over a few years can mean that you're sitting on a huge amount of debt and dead weight.

Especially when you're older being close to public services, living in some communal way or whatever might be better than sitting around alone in a giant house. Germany is kind of peculiar in a way because our vocational system and decentralisation has prevented this to a degree, but in countries like the UK or France and much of the US small towns and that kind of organisation doesn't really work any more. Having high population density is too important nowadays.
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