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On January 27 2015 08:53 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 06:25 Doublemint wrote:On January 27 2015 06:16 Sub40APM wrote:
I am curious what they are going to do now, Greece has a primary surplus now but if they stop receiving EU assistance right now by hard balling Germany there goes the surplus -- without any of the actual policy changes in the campaign promises. I guess Russia offered some aid but its really a fraction of what the EU is paying in already. I am pretty sure russia is in no position to give others a handout just right now, at least not a considerable amount. Why not? Greece is tiny in comparison to Russia and I doubt that Putin can't spare some pennies to buy himself another ally in Europe. Maybe Russian economy isn't doing very well at the moment but I'm pretty sure that they're still strong enough to influence smaller European countries.
while there are major sanctions putting the russian economy to shambles, russia does not have allies in the EU. they have business partners in EU, not allies.
and the few right wing/extremist parties the russians buy are fringe movements (for now), and not in any position to change that. even if they were, on EU level you need allies and alliances of whole countries to change such things.
and the money is not (biggest) the problem. the ECB just printed 1,14 trillion Euros - well they are doing it on a monthly basis with 60bn/month for 19 months.
it's the political will how and how fast Greece needs to pay back the money, money they basically already received.
the EU troika and especially the IMF could not have been any more wrong in their predictions and the methods they wanted Greece to do it. that's why a far left guy like Tsipras won. if there is no compromise reached - who will the Greek vote then? the far fright? REAL extremists that will torch the country?
in a discussion on Austrian TV it was said that even many long time Conservatives voted for Tsipras - this is the closest thing of a "new people's party" now in Greece. let's hope they learn the lesson that the campaign is over and compromises have to be achieved.
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On January 27 2015 08:42 oneofthem wrote:
was that the logic of versailles
I know this was supposed to be a throw away line, but seriously, think before you make silly analogies. Germany was not a democracy when WW1 started. They were a democracy when it ended. At least make a nazi analogy, because those guys were kind of voted into office (debatable, weird situation all around)
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
but the punitive reparation was levied against germany, because of its culture. it's an argument made against a collective entity.
in the case of a democracy you are still using the collective agent framework, with the 'people' seen as some sort of mystical, unified, rational and informed entity. the reality is that a bunch of politicians and their friends made reckless decisions within a dysfunctional government system. how do you build a punitive case against the greek people on these facts?
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The reparations were levied because the country started a world war, and for that you usually require the support of the population, so yes they can be held responsible. If your country starts World Wars you can't just sit around and act like "yeah I'm just going to do my nine to five job". Even doing nothing in such situation is already wrong.
In case of Greece this isn't about "making a case against the people", but it's about the fact that the Greek population needs to get their politicians in line, it's not a job of some institution or other nation. The Greek population simply seemed indifferent that they've been governed by corrupt bureaucrats and they need to fix that themselves.
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The problem is in modern democracies establishment parties have such deep tentacles into the establishment and a network of patronage that they have to be basically whipped out before serious reforms happen...but usually they get whipped out by extremist parties. The fact that a far-left and a far right now form a government -- and the only agreement they have is a vague 'end austerity' and the hopes of the Greek voters that somehow something will change -- just shows how fractured a democracy becomes after going through essentially the Great Depression again. Germany after WW1 and WW2 -- well the good part, obviously the East just got fucked by savage communism -- was dealt with differently in terms of who paid for what and how. If the Germans had actually taken over and began running Greece on a level low enough to dig out the entrenched corruption then that would be one thing, but right now you expect an apparatus that is primarily based on patronage and extraction to somehow turn around and transform into Denmark?
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http://qz.com/333328/greeces-new-finance-minister-learned-about-tearing-down-capitalism-from-working-at-a-video-game-company/
Varoufakis’ last policy job was advising center-left stalwart George Papandreou, who would later become prime minister during the debt crisis that plunged his country into a depression. Emerging as a critic of Papandreou and the broader European establishment in 2010, Varoufakis weighed in on the challenge of uniting two vastly different economies—Germany and Greece—together in one monetary system. (This and his many other thoughts are explained in detail on his rather lively blog.)
While European institutions weren’t interested in his arguments for a reduction in Greece’s debt load and a more unified EU at the time, someone else was listening—Gabe Newell, the co-founder of multi-billion dollar video game maker Valve. Many of Valve’s games have internal economies for buying and selling in-game items, and these economies had become linked through Steam, an application gamers used to barter virtual goods and buy products from Valve. “Here at my company we were discussing an issue of linking economies in two virtual environments,” Newell wrote, “when it occurred to me, ‘This is Germany and Greece.'”
“If you think of these as the social community of one game as one economy, Steam is a little bit like an international system that binds together different economies, just like the foreign exchange market does,” Varoufakis told me in 2012 for an article in Tomorrow magazine.
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On January 27 2015 13:52 Sub40APM wrote:
The problem is in modern democracies establishment parties have such deep tentacles into the establishment and a network of patronage that they have to be basically whipped out before serious reforms happen...but usually they get whipped out by extremist parties. The fact that a far-left and a far right now form a government -- and the only agreement they have is a vague 'end austerity' and the hopes of the Greek voters that somehow something will change -- just shows how fractured a democracy becomes after going through essentially the Great Depression again. Germany after WW1 and WW2 -- well the good part, obviously the East just got fucked by savage communism -- was dealt with differently in terms of who paid for what and how. If the Germans had actually taken over and began running Greece on a level low enough to dig out the entrenched corruption then that would be one thing, but right now you expect an apparatus that is primarily based on patronage and extraction to somehow turn around and transform into Denmark?
The mainstream german politicians are actually in full and total support of those old deeply corrupt greek political parties.
New Democracy is a member of the EEP, Pasok is a member of PES.
German politicians of CDU, SPD and equal parties from the rest of europe welcomed the first muppet, nonelected, government, a coalition of ND, PASOK and the far right wing party of LAOS back to 2011.
The same european politicians offered lavishly fear and uncertainty during the elections period of 2012 so greek people wouldn't vote the "wrong guys".
The same european politicians welcomed the elected, based on fear, government of ND/PASOK, counselor Merkel was the first who visited Athens right after the elections to congrats her co-partner in EEP.
It's the same politicians who spoke about "avoiding wrong election results" and having a preference to "known faces" during this elections period.
One more thing, it is those same mainstream european parties that gave their full support to european commission and ECB and IMF to agree with shutting down hospitals, schools, universities, medical welfare and to hundreds of thousands newly unemployed workers instead of forcing through bailouts the greek government to fight oligarchic mafia and corruption.
So as you see at least in Greece, your politicians lay on the same bed with corruption.
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On January 27 2015 13:52 Sub40APM wrote:
The problem is in modern democracies establishment parties have such deep tentacles into the establishment and a network of patronage that they have to be basically whipped out before serious reforms happen...but usually they get whipped out by extremist parties. The fact that a far-left and a far right now form a government -- and the only agreement they have is a vague 'end austerity' and the hopes of the Greek voters that somehow something will change -- just shows how fractured a democracy becomes after going through essentially the Great Depression again. Germany after WW1 and WW2 -- well the good part, obviously the East just got fucked by savage communism -- was dealt with differently in terms of who paid for what and how. If the Germans had actually taken over and began running Greece on a level low enough to dig out the entrenched corruption then that would be one thing, but right now you expect an apparatus that is primarily based on patronage and extraction to somehow turn around and transform into Denmark?
No, I expect them to throw out that government because it's a failure and bring in a competent one, even if that means bringing in foreigners to do it.
to my mind, one of the big problems in the world is people always trying to run their government entirely with their own people. One basic way to cut down corruption is to bring people from far enough away, that they have fewer existing ties to get in the way of things; and people who can gain a reputation by succeeding (but aren't so vulnerable to just getting paid off). Or just bring in people from places that are known to be better.
Also bringing expertise from outside on big projects like constitutional design.
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On January 27 2015 17:54 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 13:52 Sub40APM wrote:
The problem is in modern democracies establishment parties have such deep tentacles into the establishment and a network of patronage that they have to be basically whipped out before serious reforms happen...but usually they get whipped out by extremist parties. The fact that a far-left and a far right now form a government -- and the only agreement they have is a vague 'end austerity' and the hopes of the Greek voters that somehow something will change -- just shows how fractured a democracy becomes after going through essentially the Great Depression again. Germany after WW1 and WW2 -- well the good part, obviously the East just got fucked by savage communism -- was dealt with differently in terms of who paid for what and how. If the Germans had actually taken over and began running Greece on a level low enough to dig out the entrenched corruption then that would be one thing, but right now you expect an apparatus that is primarily based on patronage and extraction to somehow turn around and transform into Denmark? No, I expect them to throw out that government because it's a failure and bring in a competent one, even if that means bringing in foreigners to do it. to my mind, one of the big problems in the world is people always trying to run their government entirely with their own people. One basic way to cut down corruption is to bring people from far enough away, that they have fewer existing ties to get in the way of things; and people who can gain a reputation by succeeding (but aren't so vulnerable to just getting paid off). Or just bring in people from places that are known to be better. Also bringing expertise from outside on big projects like constitutional design.
The country is already governed by foreigners. The last muppet government was getting commands literally by email from the IMF and EU.
Or you possibly asking for something like this. It was/is a hard failure.
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That article provides no information about why it allegedly did not work.
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On January 27 2015 19:59 zlefin wrote:
That article provides no information about why it allegedly did not work.
![[image loading]](http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/files/2014/12/IMF-growth-projections-vs-reality-Greece-and-Ukraine.jpg)
Take Greece. After committing to lending of €30 billion over 3 years in 2010, the Fund projected that the crisis-mired nation would return to growth by 2012. As shown in the left figure above, Greece’s economy actually plunged by 7% that year – the year it completed the world’s largest sovereign restructuring, covering €206 billion of bonds.
look at the graph and tell me someone with a bit of sense does not have to cringe. then think about actually living in Greece, maybe working in the state sector. getting your salary cut by 30%. seeing the other success stories of cuts to universities, hospitals, schools.
I am still amazed why the EU let the IMF "come and give assistance".
IMF Projections via CFR
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And today's IMF is best IMF. Just think about what they did to africa and south america in the end of the XXth century. At least, they improved a ton with Blanchard & co.
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On January 27 2015 13:08 oneofthem wrote:
but the punitive reparation was levied against germany, because of its culture. it's an argument made against a collective entity.
in the case of a democracy you are still using the collective agent framework, with the 'people' seen as some sort of mystical, unified, rational and informed entity. the reality is that a bunch of politicians and their friends made reckless decisions within a dysfunctional government system. how do you build a punitive case against the greek people on these facts?
Because it's the Greek people who elected them and kept electing them, plain and simple.
In a democracy citizens are granted the right and the power to vote. With power comes responsibility. Democracy cannot function if citizens only want the perks of living in liberal democracies but none of the responsibilities that come with it.
Greece has always suffered from clientelism (ie. voters being promised handouts or government jobs if they vote for or become members of a specific party). The core idea of clientelism is basically to keep the 'plebs' happy so the people on top can keep doing whatever it is they do (rent seeking, tax evasion etc etc).
Of course one could argue that the people cannot be blamed for wanting perks and free stuff, but at the same time, democracies require voters to be informed. A democracy where voters are uninformed cannot function properly, and leads to people voting against their own interests. This usually comes in the form of populist parties led by demagogues. In Europe this is seen in the rapid rise of populist parties and in the US in the unexplicable success of the Republican Party, whose policies would harm the majority of their voters for the benefit of a few others.
So yes, I do think that voters are responsible for the people they elect.
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I hope for some debt relief for Greece, but it must be tied to more reforms.
Collective responsibility is a tricky subject. There certainly is a sizable fraction of Greeks that are not to blame. But then there is also a sizable fraction of Greeks which tolerated corruption for their own benefit or exploited their government in some way or another, either by profiting from the over-sized public spending or by tax evasion.
(Greek tax evasion is no myth and was not only perpetrated by the super-rich, but also by doctors, lawyers, restaurants etc on a large scale: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/09/tax-evasion-greece )
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It is a mistake to look at tax evasion in a country so bereft of competent government services as a distinctly selfish or culpable act. Sure, there are a lot of tax withholding Greeks who held and hold into their money in an exploitative manner, but there also thousands of folks who, justifiably so, simply didn't trust their government and had very little reason to past altruism or heroism.
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On January 27 2015 23:42 farvacola wrote:
It is a mistake to look at tax evasion in a country so bereft of competent government services as a distinctly selfish or culpable act. Sure, there are a lot of tax withholding Greeks who held and hold into their money in an exploitative manner, but there also thousands of folks who, justifiably so, simply didn't trust their government and had very little reason to past altruism or heroism.
Tax collection is generally not done out of altruism (except maybe by those who actually realise that taxes can be used to finance good things, such as healthcare). Tax collection is enforced. The fact that tax evasion was rampant could mean a couple of things: one thing is that the greek state was too weak to enforce tax collection, which means that reforms are needed, or that the greek state, or rather, the ruling party, tollerated it in order to keep its voter base happy, which, again, means that reform is necessary.
The irony here is that a reforms can only be done by a strong, effective state, ie. a state that is trusted by the people it governs. Greece is basically stuck in a catch-22 here (although Tsipras might be able to play a role here).
Either way, reforms will take a long time because not only do whole institutions need to be reformed, the state will need to show its citizens that it can be trusted, and the citizens will have to learn to trust the state, and start paying taxes. These reforms will also be heavily opposed by vested interests, who profit from the corrupt and dysfunctional situation the country is in now.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2015 21:52 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 13:08 oneofthem wrote:
but the punitive reparation was levied against germany, because of its culture. it's an argument made against a collective entity.
in the case of a democracy you are still using the collective agent framework, with the 'people' seen as some sort of mystical, unified, rational and informed entity. the reality is that a bunch of politicians and their friends made reckless decisions within a dysfunctional government system. how do you build a punitive case against the greek people on these facts? Because it's the Greek people who elected them and kept electing them, plain and simple. In a democracy citizens are granted the right and the power to vote. With power comes responsibility. Democracy cannot function if citizens only want the perks of living in liberal democracies but none of the responsibilities that come with it. Greece has always suffered from clientelism (ie. voters being promised handouts or government jobs if they vote for or become members of a specific party). The core idea of clientelism is basically to keep the 'plebs' happy so the people on top can keep doing whatever it is they do (rent seeking, tax evasion etc etc). Of course one could argue that the people cannot be blamed for wanting perks and free stuff, but at the same time, democracies require voters to be informed. A democracy where voters are uninformed cannot function properly, and leads to people voting against their own interests. This usually comes in the form of populist parties led by demagogues. In Europe this is seen in the rapid rise of populist parties and in the US in the unexplicable success of the Republican Party, whose policies would harm the majority of their voters for the benefit of a few others. So yes, I do think that voters are responsible for the people they elect. democracies are not perfectly rational, or singular agency. a mob can be mislead or placated rather easily, and this simple 'who dun it' argument is pretty primitive, as you can observe by the very simple fulfillment condition. who did it is a complicated question when we deal with multiple agents and institutions, with some habitual political manipulators within a corrupt government.
there is no plain and simple here, and any reasonable solution has to tackle the political institutional failure rather than simple voter preference for more spending.
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I love how some people in here are suddenly expert in Greece's history and economy. And the few comments about Syriza being national socialist... really ? Greek were one of the most glorious country in the resistance against nazi germany, and paid a heavy price for it.
By the way, the german still owe some money to the Greek (for a forced loan...), so before asking for a punishment on the entire population, maybe ask Germany to pay its debt (something it barely did after the 2nd world war). But what trouble me the most is the hypocrisy : in 1950, the foreign debt of Germany is so high that the US, UK, France decide to lower this debt ; in 1953 it is 21 creditor that accept to lower the German debt by 62 %, and give germany a break for five years and a 30 years delay to pay back its debt (with many other things, such as lower interest rates). And now it's Germany who is all bent on forcing Greeks to pay back its debt. Syriza are only asking Europe what the world did for Germany in 1950... nothing more. But the Europe does not feel any sympathy for one of its own it seems.
Not to mention that Germany also defaulted its debt in 1930 and in 1990 : in fact, Germany is the king of debt of the entire XXth century.
![[image loading]](http://static.mediapart.fr/files/imagecache/770_pixels/Mathieu%20Magnaudeix/Capture_decran_2015-01-26_a_13.16.52.png)
"What signify his victory for our money ?"
The perfect exemple as to why the europe does not work.
more reforms
Tell us which reforms are you talking about ?
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On January 27 2015 17:54 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2015 13:52 Sub40APM wrote:
The problem is in modern democracies establishment parties have such deep tentacles into the establishment and a network of patronage that they have to be basically whipped out before serious reforms happen...but usually they get whipped out by extremist parties. The fact that a far-left and a far right now form a government -- and the only agreement they have is a vague 'end austerity' and the hopes of the Greek voters that somehow something will change -- just shows how fractured a democracy becomes after going through essentially the Great Depression again. Germany after WW1 and WW2 -- well the good part, obviously the East just got fucked by savage communism -- was dealt with differently in terms of who paid for what and how. If the Germans had actually taken over and began running Greece on a level low enough to dig out the entrenched corruption then that would be one thing, but right now you expect an apparatus that is primarily based on patronage and extraction to somehow turn around and transform into Denmark? No, I expect them to throw out that government because it's a failure and bring in a competent one, even if that means bringing in foreigners to do it. to my mind, one of the big problems in the world is people always trying to run their government entirely with their own people. One basic way to cut down corruption is to bring people from far enough away, that they have fewer existing ties to get in the way of things; and people who can gain a reputation by succeeding (but aren't so vulnerable to just getting paid off). Or just bring in people from places that are known to be better. Also bringing expertise from outside on big projects like constitutional design.
I dont think its the big projects they have a problem with. Its the little projects like collecting taxes, not manipulating their state statistics, etc.
Youd have to bring in a bunch of like...mid level Swedish bureaucrats...who then would have to run literally small tax offices and hunt down all the Greek tax evaders...
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Sorry doublemint, but the point you raised in response to mine fails, it still provides no explanations as to WHY it failed, and whether it should be on the IMF or someone else. From what I've seen the IMF only had some broad leeway, not the actual specific authority necessary to do a job like this.
Sub, fine then, bring in all those midlevel people, whatever it takes to get an actual decent government.,
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EPT
