EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1356
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18394 Posts
On April 05 2022 10:02 PhoenixVoid wrote: Not well versed in European politics here, but I'm not surprised by Hungary and Serbia's recent elections. What does catch my eye is France right now with Le Pen catching up to Macron in the polls, which puts Le Pen within the margin of error to squeak out a victory. Electing a Euroskeptic and anti-NATO candidate who has praised Putin would not be great for the alliance right now in the context of Ukraine, especially as the only nuclear power and one of the keystones to the EU. LePen has far too many who vehemently oppose her to win the elections. A mainstream candidate would have a chance of beating Macron in the second round, but LePen doesn't really. Macron reaching the second round vs LePen is an easier battle than if Pecresse were to somehow make it through. That said, if Macron fucks up the first round enough to leave LePen vs Melenchon as the second round, then all bets are off. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7338 Posts
On April 05 2022 15:29 Acrofales wrote: LePen has far too many who vehemently oppose her to win the elections. A mainstream candidate would have a chance of beating Macron in the second round, but LePen doesn't really. Macron reaching the second round vs LePen is an easier battle than if Pecresse were to somehow make it through. That said, if Macron fucks up the first round enough to leave LePen vs Melenchon as the second round, then all bets are off. So worst case is Le Pen actually wins and we a Frexit on our hands? | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12487 Posts
On April 05 2022 15:29 Acrofales wrote: LePen has far too many who vehemently oppose her to win the elections. A mainstream candidate would have a chance of beating Macron in the second round, but LePen doesn't really. Macron reaching the second round vs LePen is an easier battle than if Pecresse were to somehow make it through. That said, if Macron fucks up the first round enough to leave LePen vs Melenchon as the second round, then all bets are off. Eh, not really. Macron has more margin in the second round against anyone else but Le Pen, and it's almost impossible that he doesn't make it to the second round. The closest second round is Macron vs Le Pen, and even this one I doubt he doesn't win. The "best" future is just to get Mélenchon to the second round instead of Le Pen so that at least the discourse of the second round isn't dominated by far right talking points. Then Macron gets his second term and we see where we go from there. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18394 Posts
On April 05 2022 19:11 Harris1st wrote: So worst case is Le Pen actually wins and we a Frexit on our hands? Well, if it's Le Pen vs Melenchon in the second round then Frexit is coming very close. And if Le Pen wins then a whole bunch of other nasty stuff in internal politics. I'd expect the chance of a Le Pen va Melenchon second round to be roughly zero, though. Re: Nebuchad. Eh, you're using the current polls, and I don't even know if Macron vs Pecresse as a second round is being polled because of how badly Pecresse is doing. But second round polls will tighten if Pecresse actually wins out: in an actual Macron vs Pecresse, most of the Le Pen voters would vote for Pecresse and all the Melenchon voters would stay home. Pecresse is sufficiently central for Melenchon voters to not give a fuck. She flirts with the radical right tho, which is probably enough for Le Pen's voters to vastly prefer her over Macron. Center vs center-right would imho be the closest call for Macron. Meanwhile in Macron vs Le Pen most Melenchon voters will suck it up and vote Macron (and vs Melenchon, Macron would get a fair amount of the Le Pen voters), so Macron comes out a clear victor if he faces either fringe in the second round. And yes, for the sake of argument I have assumed Zemmour and Le Pen are roughly the same thing, and just ignored Zemmour entirely. Le Pen's principal gains recently have come from potential Zemmour voters starting to consolidate back to Le Pen, as well as Pecresse's already feeble support collapsing. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12487 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On April 05 2022 23:18 LegalLord wrote: Le Pen winning would be a lot harder to imagine than some generally popular (domestically - obviously they have foes abroad) incumbent leaders getting reelected. Something really cataclysmic would have to happen in French politics for that possibility to even be open. The issue is that 'sane' leaders got pushed to the right due to the destruction of the left. For exemple, I consider pecresse to be flirting too much with the far right to have my vote. The way I see it I have no choice but to vote macron, but even as someone who didnt really get shafted by his administration, I don't feel happy about it. Oh well, thats democracy for you. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
I'm aware the French have always sought to chart their own foreign policy and defense goals - sometimes at the expense of NATO and the Anglosphere - but part of me expected Macron to gain support against the historically pro-Putin Le Pen in this moment. But apparently Macron decided to embark on unpopular domestic policies like | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4557 Posts
On April 06 2022 00:23 PhoenixVoid wrote: To clarify (which I should have done in my earlier post), I was referring to second round polls that do show a notable narrowing of the gap between Macron and Le Pen. I'm quite sure Macron will survive the first round and he remains the favourite for the second, but Le Pen is in possible upset territory right now. Compared to 2017, Macron is in a lot more danger. I'm aware the French have always sought to chart their own foreign policy and defense goals - sometimes at the expense of NATO and the Anglosphere - but part of me expected Macron to gain support against the historically pro-Putin Le Pen in this moment. But apparently Macron decided to embark on unpopular domestic policies like lowering the retirement age, which is hurting him in the polls. I read your comment and I was confused as to how lowering the retirement age could hurt a politician, but I'm guessing you made a typo  Reading about it now, he wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. In Belgium the retirement age is 67 (or it will be starting in 2030). 62 seems crazy young to retire! | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
On April 06 2022 01:34 Laurens wrote: I read your comment and I was confused as to how lowering the retirement age could hurt a politician, but I'm guessing you made a typo Reading about it now, he wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. In Belgium the retirement age is 67 (or it will be starting in 2030). 62 seems crazy young to retire! Dammit, this is the second time I made this mistake. So sorry, my brain must be slightly melting. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7338 Posts
On April 06 2022 01:34 Laurens wrote: I read your comment and I was confused as to how lowering the retirement age could hurt a politician, but I'm guessing you made a typo Reading about it now, he wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. In Belgium the retirement age is 67 (or it will be starting in 2030). 62 seems crazy young to retire! With the aging demographic there is almost no way around this, is there? Germany has age 67 as well with a few exceptions. People forget that the next generation will have to pay for the previous and with people getting older in general there is more to pay. | ||
zatic
Zurich15366 Posts
Reform is desperately needed, like 20 years ago. Yet even the current administration, which did commit themselves to at least some reform, is busy with Covid and Ukraine and probably won't get pension reform through before the next election. | ||
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Laurens
Belgium4557 Posts
On April 06 2022 16:49 Harris1st wrote: With the aging demographic there is almost no way around this, is there? Germany has age 67 as well with a few exceptions. People forget that the next generation will have to pay for the previous and with people getting older in general there is more to pay. Exactly, hence my surprise at the current retirement age in France still being 62. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27234 Posts
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KwarK
United States44204 Posts
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Harris1st
Germany7338 Posts
On April 06 2022 17:16 zatic wrote: Germanys pension system is so fucked that I'll probably not return to my home country before retirement. Reform is desperately needed, like 20 years ago. Yet even the current administration, which did commit themselves to at least some reform, is busy with Covid and Ukraine and probably won't get pension reform through before the next election. No argument here. Though if things go like the last 2 years are going, by the time I can retire we'll be living on the moon anyway because earth is dead | ||
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Oshuy
Netherlands529 Posts
On April 06 2022 23:02 WombaT wrote: 62? Fucking hell the French have it made! In that domain anyway From what I understand, it remained "almost" manageable by adding a second minimum on the number of active years. To get a full pension you need to be 67 or to both be above 62 and have worked for at least 43 years. So a large enough part of the population can only retire early by accepting a lower pension for the rest of their lives. For example, if you started working at 22 and retire at 62 (so 40 years of activity instead of 43), you get ~17.5% less. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7338 Posts
On April 07 2022 03:16 Oshuy wrote: From what I understand, it remained "almost" manageable by adding a second minimum on the number of active years. To get a full pension you need to be 67 or to both be above 62 and have worked for at least 43 years. So a large enough part of the population can only retire early by accepting a lower pension for the rest of their lives. For example, if you started working at 22 and retire at 62 (so 40 years of activity instead of 43), you get ~17.5% less. That's quite a lot! I think here it is 3,6 % per year missing | ||
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