|
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?
Implication no. 1. is that the Minsk agreement is officially dead, making it less and less likely this can be resolved peacefully. It is somewhat irrelevant how much of Ukraine this represents. It has been semi-independent since 2014, although under the Minsk agreement they were only self-governing, and neither Ukraine nor the rebels were particularly happy with the situation. This is obviously not a definite solution unless Ukraine agrees that the Donbas Republics are independent, so unless Ukraine (and subsequently the UN) accepts that Crimea belongs to Russia and the DPR and LPR are independent nations, they are still conflicted areas, and thus Ukraine can obviously not join NATO. The conflicted areas are not the only thing blocking them from joining NATO though... their problems with corruption are equally important to solve (and even less likely to be solved in our lifetime).
|
I think nothing changes other than Russia showing it has no intention of letting the two occupied border regions return to independent Ukraine peacefully. Of course it doesn't mean Ukraine can join NATO without problems. Russia would still declare that a hostile act and NATO isn't interested in Ukrainian accession in foreseeable future anyway.
|
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler +
Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.
This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO
|
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler + Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me. This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO
Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever.
|
On February 22 2022 06:18 Kreuger wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler + Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me. This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever.
I thought the issue was just that they had internal conflict? Are there are separatist regions?
|
On February 22 2022 06:25 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 06:18 Kreuger wrote:On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler + Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me. This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever. I thought the issue was just that they had internal conflict? Are there are separatist regions?
What do you mean? Donetsk/Luhansk broke away from Ukraine 2014.
Btw, Putin wants peacekeeping troops
BREAKING: Putin orders peacekeeping mission in Donetsk and Luhansk
|
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler + Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me. This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO
As someone living in a country with 1000+ kilometers of land border with Russia. Just no.
1) Why would one believe this stops the Russian aggression?
and
2) This would be a very explicit admission that military acts or threats of them are an acceptable and legitimate way to carve up any sovereign nation that one of the superpowers wants to. It's very much against everything that's been done in Europe since 1945 and again after the end of the cold war. Sovereignty, democracy, peace, fuck all of those then.
I have no feelings about Luhansk or Donetsk regions wanting to secede from Ukraine, that is a matter for people living there. But they should be able to do that without presence or interference of Russian state in that process.
|
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion. + Show Spoiler + Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me. This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO
Putin will just manufacture another frozen conflict. Unless the intention is to actually take Kyiv and install a puppet government in Ukraine.
|
So the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces are only semi-occupied. The red area on this map is occupied, the green line is the border of the 2 provinces. One wonders which region did Russia actually recognize? The independent territories or the actual full provinces and will they use this as an excuse to "liberate" the rest of the provinces...?
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/CQuCUuw.png)
Picture from liveuamap.com
|
On February 22 2022 06:59 Oleo wrote:So the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces are only semi-occupied. The red area on this map is occupied, the green line is the border of the 2 provinces. One wonders which region did Russia actually recognize? The independent territories or the actual full provinces and will they use this as an excuse to "liberate" the rest of the provinces...? + Show Spoiler +Picture from liveuamap.com
Most likely the latter. Those "republics" claim those territories in their entirety in their constitutions.
|
They will probably get the "republics" to attack the Ukrainian forces defending the rest of the claimed territories. When the Ukrainian army fights back Putin will use it as an excuse for the full invasion.
UK and US should seriously consider the Budapest Memorandum and whether they should act outside of NATO. A no fly zone over Ukraine and kicking Russia out of the Black Sea in the event of a full scale invasion should be considered. With that the Ukrainian army might stand a chance of holding off the Russian army.
|
On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So that Putin speech was something....
edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more. Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory.
Guess we're here now.
This is an invasion, and should be treated as nothing short of that. Russia created a civil war, fuels that civil war and now uses it as an excuse for annexation. Why? Because he knows if the gives the West the smallest bit of concession, only annexing part of Ukraine, not all of it in one go, they will back off.
Its a matter of time until this repeats, again and again and again.
This is worse then the Cold War was, this is not a stand-off. This is Russia annexing its neighbours whenever it deems fit.
Anything less then the full and clear statement by the West that any Russia forces entering the Ukraine will be met with force is capitulating.
But I expect some sanctions that will do nothing and absolutely will not deter Putin from reforming 'his' USSR.
|
On February 22 2022 07:42 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:So that Putin speech was something.... https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1495838034968907778edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more. Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory. Guess we're here now.
Don't know who said that, but here in Eastern Europe, we are definitely aware that many people in Russia dream of restoring old USSR borders (and beyond). They view themselves as Empire and 1989-199X years as a time of shame and unacceptable weakness.
|
On February 22 2022 07:42 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:So that Putin speech was something.... https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1495838034968907778edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more. Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory. Guess we're here now. This is an invasion, and should be treated as nothing short of that. Russia created a civil war, fuels that civil war and now uses it as an excuse for annexation. Why? Because he knows if the gives the West the smallest bit of concession, only annexing part of Ukraine, not all of it in one go, they will back off. Its a matter of time until this repeats, again and again and again.
This is worse then the Cold War was, this is not a stand-off. This is Russia annexing its neighbours whenever it deems fit. Anything less then the full and clear statement by the West that any Russia forces entering the Ukraine will be met with force is capitulating. But I expect some sanctions that will do nothing and absolutely will not deter Putin from reforming 'his' USSR.
I mean, it's been going on for 30 years, starting with Transnistria, Georgia over a decade ago, at this point there's like half a dozen fantasy republics on Russia's periphery. We don't need a clear statements, we should have been moving towards energy independence a long time ago and we should have thrown significantly stronger economic sanctions at Russia. Cutting them off from Swift in 2014 after Crimea would have actually hurt.
Can't sustain wars without an economy for long and Russia is a glorified petro-state with all the human capital running to the US or Europe. That's where the leverage is and was.
|
currently reading the rise and fall of the 3rd Reich and Putins tactics do sound oh so familiar to Germany's in the 30s up till '39. destroying and annexing Czechoslovakia.
I mean, the cases are so similar in a way, it's scary
|
United States43468 Posts
On February 22 2022 09:33 Artisreal wrote:
currently reading the rise and fall of the 3rd Reich and Putins tactics do sound oh so familiar to Germany's in the 30s up till '39. destroying and annexing Czechoslovakia.
I mean, the cases are so similar in a way, it's scary
Literal Munich conference again.
|
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Foreign Office of Germany. Tried to play both sides and not only did it not work out, you have pissed off NATO partners but the rest of Europe as well.
|
On February 22 2022 10:25 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1495927185886126080Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Foreign Office of Germany. Tried to play both sides and not only did it not work out, you have pissed off NATO partners but the rest of Europe as well.
Merkle would have defended Germany’s integrity.
|
On February 22 2022 13:14 Mohdoo wrote:Merkle would have defended Germany’s integrity.
Your posts seem to be straight out of a random word generator...
|
Don't worry guys, the helmets will protect them
It would be funny if it wasn't pants-wettingly scary.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/640/cpsprodpb/6588/production/_122229952_ukraine_rebel_areas_15.12.21_640_2x-nc.png)
