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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1310

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17983 Posts
February 21 2022 20:12 GMT
#26181
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:


Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Implication no. 1. is that the Minsk agreement is officially dead, making it less and less likely this can be resolved peacefully. It is somewhat irrelevant how much of Ukraine this represents. It has been semi-independent since 2014, although under the Minsk agreement they were only self-governing, and neither Ukraine nor the rebels were particularly happy with the situation. This is obviously not a definite solution unless Ukraine agrees that the Donbas Republics are independent, so unless Ukraine (and subsequently the UN) accepts that Crimea belongs to Russia and the DPR and LPR are independent nations, they are still conflicted areas, and thus Ukraine can obviously not join NATO. The conflicted areas are not the only thing blocking them from joining NATO though... their problems with corruption are equally important to solve (and even less likely to be solved in our lifetime).
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9193 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-21 20:19:09
February 21 2022 20:18 GMT
#26182
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?


I think nothing changes other than Russia showing it has no intention of letting the two occupied border regions return to independent Ukraine peacefully. Of course it doesn't mean Ukraine can join NATO without problems. Russia would still declare that a hostile act and NATO isn't interested in Ukrainian accession in foreseeable future anyway.
You're now breathing manually
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15686 Posts
February 21 2022 21:07 GMT
#26183
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO
Kreuger
Profile Joined October 2011
Sweden718 Posts
February 21 2022 21:18 GMT
#26184
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO


Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15686 Posts
February 21 2022 21:25 GMT
#26185
On February 22 2022 06:18 Kreuger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO


Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever.


I thought the issue was just that they had internal conflict? Are there are separatist regions?
Kreuger
Profile Joined October 2011
Sweden718 Posts
February 21 2022 21:29 GMT
#26186
On February 22 2022 06:25 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 06:18 Kreuger wrote:
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO


Even if they surrender these regions, they wont be able to join NATO for a long time , if ever.


I thought the issue was just that they had internal conflict? Are there are separatist regions?


What do you mean? Donetsk/Luhansk broke away from Ukraine 2014.


Btw, Putin wants peacekeeping troops

BREAKING: Putin orders peacekeeping mission in Donetsk and Luhansk


Oukka
Profile Blog Joined September 2012
Finland1683 Posts
February 21 2022 21:32 GMT
#26187
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO


As someone living in a country with 1000+ kilometers of land border with Russia. Just no.

1) Why would one believe this stops the Russian aggression?

and

2) This would be a very explicit admission that military acts or threats of them are an acceptable and legitimate way to carve up any sovereign nation that one of the superpowers wants to. It's very much against everything that's been done in Europe since 1945 and again after the end of the cold war. Sovereignty, democracy, peace, fuck all of those then.

I have no feelings about Luhansk or Donetsk regions wanting to secede from Ukraine, that is a matter for people living there. But they should be able to do that without presence or interference of Russian state in that process.
I play children's card games and watch a lot of dota, CS and HS
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5552 Posts
February 21 2022 21:38 GMT
#26188
On February 22 2022 06:07 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 05:02 maybenexttime wrote:
On February 22 2022 04:48 Mohdoo wrote:
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1495845988761845760

Can someone explain the implications here? How much of Ukraine does this represent? If these are separatist parts of Ukraine, would this mean Ukraine can join NATO now?

Those self-proclaimed republics lay claim to more land than they actually control. This probably means a military invasion.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Forgive my armchair military advice, but bare with me.

This region looks like a totally acceptable loss, given the alternative. These are the parts of Ukraine that prevent entry into NATO right? Ditch these and join NATO? Good deal IMO

Putin will just manufacture another frozen conflict. Unless the intention is to actually take Kyiv and install a puppet government in Ukraine.
Oleo
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands279 Posts
February 21 2022 21:59 GMT
#26189
So the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces are only semi-occupied. The red area on this map is occupied, the green line is the border of the 2 provinces. One wonders which region did Russia actually recognize? The independent territories or the actual full provinces and will they use this as an excuse to "liberate" the rest of the provinces...?

[image loading]
Picture from liveuamap.com
Managing Siegetanks is like raising a superhero - Artosis.
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5552 Posts
February 21 2022 22:04 GMT
#26190
On February 22 2022 06:59 Oleo wrote:
So the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces are only semi-occupied. The red area on this map is occupied, the green line is the border of the 2 provinces. One wonders which region did Russia actually recognize? The independent territories or the actual full provinces and will they use this as an excuse to "liberate" the rest of the provinces...?

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Picture from liveuamap.com

Most likely the latter. Those "republics" claim those territories in their entirety in their constitutions.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
February 21 2022 22:38 GMT
#26191
They will probably get the "republics" to attack the Ukrainian forces defending the rest of the claimed territories. When the Ukrainian army fights back Putin will use it as an excuse for the full invasion.

UK and US should seriously consider the Budapest Memorandum and whether they should act outside of NATO. A no fly zone over Ukraine and kicking Russia out of the Black Sea in the event of a full scale invasion should be considered. With that the Ukrainian army might stand a chance of holding off the Russian army.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21667 Posts
February 21 2022 22:42 GMT
#26192
On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So that Putin speech was something....



edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more.
Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory.
Guess we're here now.

This is an invasion, and should be treated as nothing short of that. Russia created a civil war, fuels that civil war and now uses it as an excuse for annexation. Why? Because he knows if the gives the West the smallest bit of concession, only annexing part of Ukraine, not all of it in one go, they will back off.
Its a matter of time until this repeats, again and again and again.

This is worse then the Cold War was, this is not a stand-off. This is Russia annexing its neighbours whenever it deems fit.

Anything less then the full and clear statement by the West that any Russia forces entering the Ukraine will be met with force is capitulating.
But I expect some sanctions that will do nothing and absolutely will not deter Putin from reforming 'his' USSR.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4726 Posts
February 21 2022 22:51 GMT
#26193
On February 22 2022 07:42 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So that Putin speech was something....

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1495838034968907778

edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more.
Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory.
Guess we're here now.



Don't know who said that, but here in Eastern Europe, we are definitely aware that many people in Russia dream of restoring old USSR borders (and beyond). They view themselves as Empire and 1989-199X years as a time of shame and unacceptable weakness.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
February 22 2022 00:02 GMT
#26194
On February 22 2022 07:42 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 04:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So that Putin speech was something....

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1495838034968907778

edit: I'm genuinely curious on how Germany is going to respond to this speech. I mean this was off the wall historical nonsense, but also damning that he believes the Baltics and former countries behind the Iron Curtain should belong to Russia once more.
Hm, and not so long ago people thought I was silly for thinking Putin wanted to reclaim the USSR's glory.
Guess we're here now.

This is an invasion, and should be treated as nothing short of that. Russia created a civil war, fuels that civil war and now uses it as an excuse for annexation. Why? Because he knows if the gives the West the smallest bit of concession, only annexing part of Ukraine, not all of it in one go, they will back off.
Its a matter of time until this repeats, again and again and again.

This is worse then the Cold War was, this is not a stand-off. This is Russia annexing its neighbours whenever it deems fit.

Anything less then the full and clear statement by the West that any Russia forces entering the Ukraine will be met with force is capitulating.
But I expect some sanctions that will do nothing and absolutely will not deter Putin from reforming 'his' USSR.


I mean, it's been going on for 30 years, starting with Transnistria, Georgia over a decade ago, at this point there's like half a dozen fantasy republics on Russia's periphery. We don't need a clear statements, we should have been moving towards energy independence a long time ago and we should have thrown significantly stronger economic sanctions at Russia. Cutting them off from Swift in 2014 after Crimea would have actually hurt.

Can't sustain wars without an economy for long and Russia is a glorified petro-state with all the human capital running to the US or Europe. That's where the leverage is and was.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
February 22 2022 00:33 GMT
#26195
currently reading the rise and fall of the 3rd Reich and Putins tactics do sound oh so familiar to Germany's in the 30s up till '39. destroying and annexing Czechoslovakia.
I mean, the cases are so similar in a way, it's scary
passive quaranstream fan
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42655 Posts
February 22 2022 01:17 GMT
#26196
On February 22 2022 09:33 Artisreal wrote:
currently reading the rise and fall of the 3rd Reich and Putins tactics do sound oh so familiar to Germany's in the 30s up till '39. destroying and annexing Czechoslovakia.
I mean, the cases are so similar in a way, it's scary

Literal Munich conference again.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-02-22 01:30:59
February 22 2022 01:25 GMT
#26197


Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Foreign Office of Germany. Tried to play both sides and not only did it not work out, you have pissed off NATO partners but the rest of Europe as well.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15686 Posts
February 22 2022 04:14 GMT
#26198
On February 22 2022 10:25 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1495927185886126080

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Foreign Office of Germany. Tried to play both sides and not only did it not work out, you have pissed off NATO partners but the rest of Europe as well.

Merkle would have defended Germany’s integrity.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
February 22 2022 06:48 GMT
#26199
On February 22 2022 13:14 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 22 2022 10:25 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1495927185886126080

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Foreign Office of Germany. Tried to play both sides and not only did it not work out, you have pissed off NATO partners but the rest of Europe as well.

Merkle would have defended Germany’s integrity.


Your posts seem to be straight out of a random word generator...
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6230 Posts
February 22 2022 07:43 GMT
#26200
Don't worry guys, the helmets will protect them

It would be funny if it wasn't pants-wettingly scary.
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