EPTSo he calls for a vote of no confidence he can't win so he can tell his supporters "I tried".
UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 459
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22487 Posts
So he calls for a vote of no confidence he can't win so he can tell his supporters "I tried". | ||
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hunter_x
Germany2762 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9322 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9956 Posts
1: We just wasted a month of precious negotiating time because of May's pointless and borderline suicidal postponement of the vote. 2: Corbyn still hasn't bothered to offer an alternative that would work, or any alternative at all. Most of the population of the country are taking this more seriously than the morons in charge. | ||
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Doodsmack
United States7224 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
Stuff like this is asking for trouble, I think she will lose the confidence vote if "nothing has changed" becomes her behind the scenes mantra. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22487 Posts
On January 16 2019 05:18 Sent. wrote: Again, May is a scaregoat. That is her whole reason of existence in this government, to be the one to take the fall for the Hard Brexit they want.I'm having a hard time understanding MPs who voted against May's deal but still want to keep her as PM. Only explanation that comes to my mind is that they think a weak but stable government is the best they can get. And remainers who want to remain but understand that May is doing her job representing the voters while holding out on her cancelling Brexit. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Some Conservative MP want a hard brexit (and by the looks of it are going to get it by voting it down), most Labour are against it because they are against the Conservatives no matter what the deal is, a lot of both Conservative and Labour MPs want a soft brexit so they can claim to respect the referendum but not get the blame for brexit, and SNP and some Conservatives and Labour MPs are against it because they back a full remain. | ||
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Kerotan
England2111 Posts
It needs major tory rebellion or DUP to change up what they said they would do in light of tonight's terrible result | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 16 2019 06:31 Kerotan wrote: The confidence vote doesn't have a hope in hell in passing does it? It needs major tory rebellion or DUP to change up what they said they would do in light of tonight's terrible result It doesnt need a huge rebellion, if every opposition MP voted against then it only requires 6 conservatives to break rank that includes the DUP voting with the government. | ||
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MyLovelyLurker
France756 Posts
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Kerotan
England2111 Posts
On January 16 2019 06:50 Zaros wrote: It doesnt need a huge rebellion, if every opposition MP voted against then it only requires 6 conservatives to break rank that includes the DUP voting with the government. Isn't it 7? Those in opposition number (and who will actually vote) are 313, where are torys and DUP number 326. Half the house at the moment is 319.5, because 650 - (7 SF+4speakers) is 639. Considering how the unreliable the Independent vote is and how fragmented the labour party are, I'm not convinced. Too many Katy Hoeys. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 16 2019 07:16 Kerotan wrote: Isn't it 7? Those in opposition number (and who will actually vote) are 313, where are torys and DUP number 326. Half the house at the moment is 319.5, because 650 - (7 SF+4speakers) is 639. Considering how the unreliable the Independent vote is and how fragmented the labour party are, I'm not convinced. Too many Katy Hoeys. I'm not sure if some of the deputy speakers can vote, I wouldn't bet on Kate Hoey openly backing the conservatives I think she would much rather have Jeremy Corbyn as PM, either way 6 or 7 Conservatives maybe even add a few more onto the number it is still not a massive rebellion the ERG especially could force her out, the conservative remainers may not have quite enough people. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
Clearly, if they just came out and said that right away, there would be a lot of backlash. But if they just slowly drag Brexit over some hot coals, eventually it just dies, right? Anyone else feel that way? | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 16 2019 07:48 Mohdoo wrote: As an outsider, the past 6 months have felt like a bunch of theater intended to get people comfortable with the idea that Brexit isn't going to happen. Today's vote felt like just another example of "see? this isn't possible? We tried, but sorry, we're ditching the whole idea". Clearly, if they just came out and said that right away, there would be a lot of backlash. But if they just slowly drag Brexit over some hot coals, eventually it just dies, right? Anyone else feel that way? The Legal default is No deal, it happens if the MPs don't vote for a deal or to stop brexit, there will be uproar if MPs openly vote to stop brexit. The country is just waiting to see what happens. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On January 16 2019 07:50 Zaros wrote: The Legal default is No deal, it happens if the MPs don't vote for a deal or to stop brexit, there will be uproar if MPs openly vote to stop brexit. The country is just waiting to see what happens. My understanding is that no deal is such a clear case of suicide that no one will actually let that happen. Sure, it is the "legal default", but every other reason basically points to "yeah, but no, it's not like we'll actually do that". | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 16 2019 08:04 Mohdoo wrote: My understanding is that no deal is such a clear case of suicide that no one will actually let that happen. Sure, it is the "legal default", but every other reason basically points to "yeah, but no, it's not like we'll actually do that". It doesnt matter if people think its suicide it is going to happen unless the government proposes an alternative which gets a majority or revokes article 50, the clock is ticking every day. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On January 16 2019 08:08 Zaros wrote: It doesnt matter if people think its suicide it is going to happen unless the government proposes an alternative which gets a majority or revokes article 50, the clock is ticking every day. Doesn't this kind of thinking assume the people involved will continue to sign things, let things move forward, etc? Are you saying that is what you expect to happen, or just saying that is how the words are currently written? My (outside) impression is that people will go to extreme lengths to prevent a hard brexit. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On January 16 2019 08:12 Mohdoo wrote: Doesn't this kind of thinking assume the people involved will continue to sign things, let things move forward, etc? Are you saying that is what you expect to happen, or just saying that is how the words are currently written? My (outside) impression is that people will go to extreme lengths to prevent a hard brexit. I have absolutely no clue where you got that impression from, after watching that clown show for the last 2 years. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On January 16 2019 08:12 Mohdoo wrote: Doesn't this kind of thinking assume the people involved will continue to sign things, let things move forward, etc? Are you saying that is what you expect to happen, or just saying that is how the words are currently written? My (outside) impression is that people will go to extreme lengths to prevent a hard brexit. Parliament voted to trigger article 50 which has a 2 year deadline of an agreement being reached or No Deal exit, so they have to reach a legally binding agreement with the EU before then or cancel the whole thing (electoral suicide) before March 29th (2 year deadline.) The EU and May are pretty clear the withdrawal agreement is not going to change and it just got rejected by 230 votes, my reading of the situation in parliament is there is not a majoirty for cancelling brexit outright or a second referendum (they wouldn't be able to agree the question never mind the House of Lords continuing to alter it in favour of remain and sending it back.) A softer brexit may be able to gain a majority but Theresa May doesnt back it and therefor neither does the government so anything passed will have no legal affect. The trouble for the soft brexit is they can't get a PM that backs that even though it has a majority in the commons without a complete breakdown of the party system and a national government of unity forming, that is never going to happen, the second referendum and cancel brexit also have those problems. That leaves you with No deal or a General election to potentially (ironically could change nothing) change the parliamentary arithmetic. Theresa May looks set to win any confidence vote thrown at her currently because the brexiteers have come to the same conclusions and shut down the final avenue of losing brexit leaving No deal the only thing left even if 500 mps oppose it. | ||
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