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On March 14 2013 18:32 BreakfastBurrito wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 17:53 Marti wrote:On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now. It says " NORTH KOREA's food EXPORTS TO china suspended". I think you got it wrong. It's the other way around. NK stops selling to CN People were making money off of those exports, its still going to negatively impact the NK citizens involved in that trade. They're still going to be catching, packing and transporting the shellfish. They get 'paid' (probably just basic rations) wherever it goes, be it to the Chinese or the Army. All the hard currency from legal exports would go to the government anyway.
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On March 14 2013 18:10 emjaytron wrote: Does this remind anyone else of playing Civ 2 and wiping out a civilization until they have like 1 city left. Then for the rest of the game they are all "give us all your money and tech or we'll wipe you out blah blah"
Haha, thanks man this is good
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At least they fixed that in the later civs. Maybe NK needs a patch or something.
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On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2013 07:05 Hyperbola wrote: Pretty sure their "nuclear" capabilities are about 8 kilotons. That's about 2.6 times less than what the US dropped on Nagasaki, 70 years ago. And it's also about 7,000 times less than what the USSR experimented with 50 years ago. Considering how much time has passed, their nukes are probably a 100,000 times less than what the rest of the world has. The most they could do is start a nuclear war between two countries. But as far as I'm concerned, they're more likely to accidentally nuke themselves or just have their missile shot down in mid-flight by one of our ridiculously advanced missile-defense systems. When did we steal tech from the Russians and I didn't hear about it? Our most advanced systems (PAC-3) are highly adapt old and export-variant (eg. watered down shit sold to countries outside of USSR/Russia) S-300 batteries. Very advanced (at least by Euro/US standards), but far below what the Soviets/Russians have, and unproven in even optimized-condition short-range missile defense, nevermind ICBMs. Soviet/Russian military policy has always revolved around heavy defensive systems, which is why they have so much shit that can destroy planes and ships from ground and aerial platforms. Basically, if it's in the air or sea, it's not going to be for long. US military policy revolves around offensive air superiority and saturation bombing, and huge amounts of naval ships. Can't do the former if your air force can't function :/. That said, Russia is the only country that has ungodly amounts of air defense, so it's not a problem.
Most advanced? Patriot missile is old stuff. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (capable of intercepting ibcms and war heads in space at 38,000 km/h speeds). And aegis ships are new tech. Patriot is almost 30 years old... GMD is the most advanced missile defense system in the world. Kinetic kill vehicles are the future of missile defense and they have been here for a few years. The Russians are still using small nuclear missiles to intercept icbms, we have the tech to kill icbms by ramming a fucking missile with no explosives into an icbm going 30,000 km/h. "Shooting a bullet with a bullet.". It's not really comparable to what Russia is fielding atm.
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On March 15 2013 01:36 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:On March 10 2013 07:05 Hyperbola wrote: Pretty sure their "nuclear" capabilities are about 8 kilotons. That's about 2.6 times less than what the US dropped on Nagasaki, 70 years ago. And it's also about 7,000 times less than what the USSR experimented with 50 years ago. Considering how much time has passed, their nukes are probably a 100,000 times less than what the rest of the world has. The most they could do is start a nuclear war between two countries. But as far as I'm concerned, they're more likely to accidentally nuke themselves or just have their missile shot down in mid-flight by one of our ridiculously advanced missile-defense systems. When did we steal tech from the Russians and I didn't hear about it? Our most advanced systems (PAC-3) are highly adapt old and export-variant (eg. watered down shit sold to countries outside of USSR/Russia) S-300 batteries. Very advanced (at least by Euro/US standards), but far below what the Soviets/Russians have, and unproven in even optimized-condition short-range missile defense, nevermind ICBMs. Soviet/Russian military policy has always revolved around heavy defensive systems, which is why they have so much shit that can destroy planes and ships from ground and aerial platforms. Basically, if it's in the air or sea, it's not going to be for long. US military policy revolves around offensive air superiority and saturation bombing, and huge amounts of naval ships. Can't do the former if your air force can't function :/. That said, Russia is the only country that has ungodly amounts of air defense, so it's not a problem. Most advanced? Patriot missile is old stuff. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (capable of intercepting ibcms and war heads in space at 38,000 km/h speeds). And aegis ships are new tech. Patriot is almost 30 years old... GMD is the most advanced missile defense system in the world. Kinetic kill vehicles are the future of missile defense and they have been here for a few years. The Russians are still using small nuclear missiles to intercept icbms, we have the tech to kill icbms by ramming a fucking missile with no explosives into an icbm going 30,000 km/h. "Shooting a bullet with a bullet.". It's not really comparable to what Russia is fielding atm. PAC-3 is relatively new (try mid-late 2000s). Ships with air defense are old as fuck. That's nothing new. The Russians use basic SAMs to intercept ICBMs, not small nuclear missiles. S-400 is fully capable of the task. Hell, the US wanted to get a close look at S-400 and other Russian air defense systems. This is just a SAM battery btw. They also have many dedicated missile interception systems that they've been developing for decades since the Cold War, but I was referring to things that number excessively, like their SAM batteries. Everything else in regards to US capability is mainly theoretical. We still have trouble shooting down Katyusha rockets and short-range ballistic missiles on optimal paths in testing. ICBMs are a whole different story. But the PAC-3 is the primary thing we have what we have, based largely on 1970s export-variant technology from the USSR, especially for ballistic missile defense suites, which the export-model S300V's we got specialized in. That technology gain facilitated the development of the PAC-3.
The GMD is aging, and hasn't proven very successful. Most advanced? Far from it. It fails to even strike basic (short-range?) missiles with no countermeasures on optimized interception paths/conditions. The program is exceeding its costs and things just aren't going anywhere near as expected. You're right. It's not comparable to what the Russians have. It's a failing project. It either needs to be seriously re-evaluated to beat its stagnancy, or cancelled.
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On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society.
Uh, it's your analogy that is terrible. The hypothetical North Korean refugees aren't residents / citizens of China. They're not members of Chinese economy / society. They're hypothetical refugees who would cross the border in the event of war. Not only does repatriation address one of the main cited Chinese concerns about supporting North Korea, but is also South Korean policy: South Korea has been asking China to repatriate to South Korea North Korean deserters for years. It is China that is refusing to do so out of its alliance with North Korea.
But, as shown in recent weeks, the ties between China and North Korea are fraying. Chinese analysts and government mouth pieces are starting to call for China to abandon the rogue country and to strike a grand bargain with the US and South Korea. This is because there is growing belief within China that North Korea would sell out to the US in order to survive.
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United States42014 Posts
Maybe it's just me but ten minutes seems like a really quick time from the first artillery attack to having higher ups discuss the situation, make an assessment and implement it. I can't conceive how giving grunts the freedom to escalate the conflict might possibly be viewed as a good thing.
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On March 15 2013 04:15 KwarK wrote: Maybe it's just me but ten minutes seems like a really quick time from the first artillery attack to having higher ups discuss the situation, make an assessment and implement it. I can't conceive how giving grunts the freedom to escalate the conflict might possibly be viewed as a good thing.
If I recall whatever defense minister (or equivalent position) of South Korea ended up resigning after the North Korean artillery bombardment of the "contested" island a year or so ago because the response time in fact wasn't quick enough. I don't recall how long the SK response took but it wasn't very long if I recall.
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United States42014 Posts
On March 15 2013 04:20 FabledIntegral wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 04:15 KwarK wrote: Maybe it's just me but ten minutes seems like a really quick time from the first artillery attack to having higher ups discuss the situation, make an assessment and implement it. I can't conceive how giving grunts the freedom to escalate the conflict might possibly be viewed as a good thing. If I recall whatever defense minister (or equivalent position) of South Korea ended up resigning after the North Korean artillery bombardment of the "contested" island a year or so ago because the response time in fact wasn't quick enough. I don't recall how long the SK response took but it wasn't very long if I recall. Which is the point I was making. That a delay for higher ups to make a decision is a good thing and ten minutes is still really quick.
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On March 15 2013 04:22 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 04:20 FabledIntegral wrote:On March 15 2013 04:15 KwarK wrote: Maybe it's just me but ten minutes seems like a really quick time from the first artillery attack to having higher ups discuss the situation, make an assessment and implement it. I can't conceive how giving grunts the freedom to escalate the conflict might possibly be viewed as a good thing. If I recall whatever defense minister (or equivalent position) of South Korea ended up resigning after the North Korean artillery bombardment of the "contested" island a year or so ago because the response time in fact wasn't quick enough. I don't recall how long the SK response took but it wasn't very long if I recall. Which is the point I was making. That a delay for higher ups to make a decision is a good thing and ten minutes is still really quick.
I just meant there was an incredibly negative response from the public and he ended up having to resign over it.
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On March 15 2013 03:45 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 01:36 heliusx wrote:On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:On March 10 2013 07:05 Hyperbola wrote: Pretty sure their "nuclear" capabilities are about 8 kilotons. That's about 2.6 times less than what the US dropped on Nagasaki, 70 years ago. And it's also about 7,000 times less than what the USSR experimented with 50 years ago. Considering how much time has passed, their nukes are probably a 100,000 times less than what the rest of the world has. The most they could do is start a nuclear war between two countries. But as far as I'm concerned, they're more likely to accidentally nuke themselves or just have their missile shot down in mid-flight by one of our ridiculously advanced missile-defense systems. When did we steal tech from the Russians and I didn't hear about it? Our most advanced systems (PAC-3) are highly adapt old and export-variant (eg. watered down shit sold to countries outside of USSR/Russia) S-300 batteries. Very advanced (at least by Euro/US standards), but far below what the Soviets/Russians have, and unproven in even optimized-condition short-range missile defense, nevermind ICBMs. Soviet/Russian military policy has always revolved around heavy defensive systems, which is why they have so much shit that can destroy planes and ships from ground and aerial platforms. Basically, if it's in the air or sea, it's not going to be for long. US military policy revolves around offensive air superiority and saturation bombing, and huge amounts of naval ships. Can't do the former if your air force can't function :/. That said, Russia is the only country that has ungodly amounts of air defense, so it's not a problem. Most advanced? Patriot missile is old stuff. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (capable of intercepting ibcms and war heads in space at 38,000 km/h speeds). And aegis ships are new tech. Patriot is almost 30 years old... GMD is the most advanced missile defense system in the world. Kinetic kill vehicles are the future of missile defense and they have been here for a few years. The Russians are still using small nuclear missiles to intercept icbms, we have the tech to kill icbms by ramming a fucking missile with no explosives into an icbm going 30,000 km/h. "Shooting a bullet with a bullet.". It's not really comparable to what Russia is fielding atm. PAC-3 is relatively new (try mid-late 2000s). Ships with air defense are old as fuck. That's nothing new. The Russians use basic SAMs to intercept ICBMs, not small nuclear missiles. S-400 is fully capable of the task. Hell, the US wanted to get a close look at S-400 and other Russian air defense systems. This is just a SAM battery btw. They also have many dedicated missile interception systems that they've been developing for decades since the Cold War, but I was referring to things that number excessively, like their SAM batteries. So many false statements.
There are only two systems in the world that can intercept ICBMs. Besides them, many smaller systems exist (tactical ABMs), that generally cannot intercept intercontinental strategic missiles, even if within range—an incoming ICBM simply moves too fast for these systems.
The Russian A-35 anti-ballistic missile system for defense of Moscow, whose development started in 1971. Presently active, it is called A-135 and uses Gorgon and Gazelle missiles with nuclear warheads.
The U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD; previously known as National Missile Defense – NMD) system has recently reached initial operational capability. Instead of using an explosive charge, it launches a kinetic projectile. The George W. Bush administration accelerated development and deployment of a system proposed in 1998 by the Clinton administration. The system is a dual purpose test and interception facility in Alaska, and in 2006 was operational with a few interceptor missiles. The Alaska site provides more protection against North Korean missiles or launches from Russia or China, but is likely less effective against missiles launched from the Middle East. President Bush referenced the 9/11 attacks and the proliferation of ballistic missiles as reasons for missile defense. The current GMD system has the more limited goal of shielding against a limited attack by a rogue state.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ballistic_missile#Current_counter-ICBM_systems
On March 15 2013 03:45 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Everything else in regards to US capability is mainly theoretical. We still have trouble shooting down Katyusha rockets and short-range ballistic missiles on optimal paths in testing. ICBMs are a whole different story. But the PAC-3 is the primary thing we have what we have, based largely on 1970s export-variant technology from the USSR, especially for ballistic missile defense suites, which the export-model S300V's we got specialized in. That technology gain facilitated the development of the PAC-3.
You mean that missile fired from a 30+ year old system that is currently being replaced with the latest in ground launched missile interception system called the MEADS? Let's also not forget the arrow3 currently in development. (edit; i was mistaken patriot system isnt being replaced by THAADS which is a new system being deployed alongside the patriot, it's being replaced by the MEADS.)
On March 15 2013 03:45 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: The GMD is aging, and hasn't proven very successful. Most advanced? Far from it. It fails to even strike basic (short-range?) missiles with no countermeasures on optimized interception paths/conditions. The program is exceeding its costs and things just aren't going anywhere near as expected. You're right. It's not comparable to what the Russians have. It's a failing project. It either needs to be seriously re-evaluated to beat its stagnancy, or cancelled.
Aging system? It hasn't even been fully deployed and it has been less than 7 years since the first phase of deployment. It has a higher kill rate than the russian counterpart which is the ONLY other system capable of stopping an icbm attack, which is 30 years older than the US system. As for "it failed to even strike basic missiles." Please do some research . The GMD system isn't even made for intercepting shorter range and slower missiles although it is fully capable of doing so. Claiming russian s400s and what not can intercept an icbm is the most uninformed thing I've ever heard in icbm discussion. GMD is top of the line and the latest in anti ballistic missile capabilities and you would know this if you did even the slightest bit if research.
As for the AEGIS yeah it may be an old system but the new missiles those ships fire are proven to be very reliable as has their predecessors. They are fully capable of intercepting the newest GRAD(newest versions of katyusha) rockets with ease.
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Meanwhile..
N. Korea-based Websites Inaccessible
Internet users are reporting an inability to access North Korea-based websites.
Computer servers hosting websites of the .KP domain have not been reachable since early Wednesday, Asia time, except for a brief period early Thursday afternoon.
The source of the trouble is not known and there has been no announcement from Pyongyang.
Websites affected include the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the daily newspaper Rodong Sinmun and the Air Koryo airlines. Sites in China and Japan hosting North Korean propaganda sites have not been affected. The isolated country's radio and television broadcasts have also been operating normally.
Analysts say the Rodong Sinmun site suffers outages once a month on average, while KCNA has disappeared once every several months. The outages typically last from a few hours up to one day. But it is apparently unprecedented for all North Korea-hosted websites to go down simultaneously and for such a long time.
North Korea's media, which are state controlled, has not mentioned the extended website outage.
Source
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On March 15 2013 04:08 Azarkon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society. Uh, it's your analogy that is terrible. The hypothetical North Korean refugees aren't residents / citizens of China. They're not members of Chinese economy / society. They're hypothetical refugees who would cross the border in the event of war. Not only does repatriation address one of the main cited Chinese concerns about supporting North Korea, but is also South Korean policy: South Korea has been asking China to repatriate to South Korea North Korean deserters for years. It is China that is refusing to do so out of its alliance with North Korea. But, as shown in recent weeks, the ties between China and North Korea are fraying. Chinese analysts and government mouth pieces are starting to call for China to abandon the rogue country and to strike a grand bargain with the US and South Korea. This is because there is growing belief within China that North Korea would sell out to the US in order to survive. Tal's sarcastic reply to you says enough. In the case of war, we're talking about a situation that would require moving insane amounts of people from one country to another. The analogy is just the same. It's not something you can just do simply overnight. It can be done over months, if not years, which is far more realistic. The fact you think it's a simple matter of moving people is insane. The European powers thought the same. Instead, it crashed the Greek economy and created an insane amount of poverty and all sorts of social issues, because moving tons and tons of people into a country in a sudden movement cannot immediately be accomodated. It takes time. In case of war, which you are taking about, the number of refugees could reach into the millions. Good luck sending all of those over to South Korea. You are extremely ignorant if you think such a thing is a simple task to both achieve and to accommodate. It's not. Sending them would be a logistical nightmare and South Korea instantly accommodating 100,000s to millions would be a disaster.
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On March 15 2013 05:17 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 04:08 Azarkon wrote:On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society. Uh, it's your analogy that is terrible. The hypothetical North Korean refugees aren't residents / citizens of China. They're not members of Chinese economy / society. They're hypothetical refugees who would cross the border in the event of war. Not only does repatriation address one of the main cited Chinese concerns about supporting North Korea, but is also South Korean policy: South Korea has been asking China to repatriate to South Korea North Korean deserters for years. It is China that is refusing to do so out of its alliance with North Korea. But, as shown in recent weeks, the ties between China and North Korea are fraying. Chinese analysts and government mouth pieces are starting to call for China to abandon the rogue country and to strike a grand bargain with the US and South Korea. This is because there is growing belief within China that North Korea would sell out to the US in order to survive. Tal's sarcastic reply to you says enough. In the case of war, we're talking about a situation that would require moving insane amounts of people from one country to another. The analogy is just the same. It's not something you can just do simply overnight. It can be done over months, if not years, which is far more realistic. The fact you think it's a simple matter of moving people is insane. The European powers thought the same. Instead, it crashed the Greek economy and created an insane amount of poverty and all sorts of social issues, because moving tons and tons of people into a country in a sudden movement cannot immediately be accomodated. It takes time. In case of war, which you are taking about, the number of refugees could reach into the millions. Good luck sending all of those over to South Korea. You are extremely ignorant if you think such a thing is a simple task to both achieve and to accommodate. It's not. Sending them would be a logistical nightmare and South Korea instantly accommodating 100,000s to millions would be a disaster.
Anyone can be sarcastic. It is among the most useless forms of rhetorical expression when not backed up by sound reasoning.
Also, no one said it had to happen overnight. False premise -> false reasoning. The idea would be to gradually repatriate them to South Korea, who would in turn send them back to rebuild North Korea, as North Korea would not last >1 year in a war. Joining two countries that have fundamentally different socioeconomic conditions is never easy, but from what I understand it's what South Koreans want and are willing to sacrifice for. Thus, China is doing no one a favor by propping up North Korea on the excuse of 'refugees.'
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United States42014 Posts
I dunno. On the one hand you'd probably have to build a series of emergency camps where they were barracked together and forced to work to offset their upkeep while being underfed. On the other hand, they'd feel at home.
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They'd feel better than they'd feel in China, which has stated time and again that it doesn't want them. That's a rather important dimension to this issue.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the china-nk border area is an ethnic korean zone. a lot of north koreans even have relatives in china.
a part of china's concern is the destabilizing effect it'll have on their own koreans, many of whom are also keen on moving to SK.
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On March 15 2013 05:46 Azarkon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 05:17 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:On March 15 2013 04:08 Azarkon wrote:On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society. Uh, it's your analogy that is terrible. The hypothetical North Korean refugees aren't residents / citizens of China. They're not members of Chinese economy / society. They're hypothetical refugees who would cross the border in the event of war. Not only does repatriation address one of the main cited Chinese concerns about supporting North Korea, but is also South Korean policy: South Korea has been asking China to repatriate to South Korea North Korean deserters for years. It is China that is refusing to do so out of its alliance with North Korea. But, as shown in recent weeks, the ties between China and North Korea are fraying. Chinese analysts and government mouth pieces are starting to call for China to abandon the rogue country and to strike a grand bargain with the US and South Korea. This is because there is growing belief within China that North Korea would sell out to the US in order to survive. Tal's sarcastic reply to you says enough. In the case of war, we're talking about a situation that would require moving insane amounts of people from one country to another. The analogy is just the same. It's not something you can just do simply overnight. It can be done over months, if not years, which is far more realistic. The fact you think it's a simple matter of moving people is insane. The European powers thought the same. Instead, it crashed the Greek economy and created an insane amount of poverty and all sorts of social issues, because moving tons and tons of people into a country in a sudden movement cannot immediately be accomodated. It takes time. In case of war, which you are taking about, the number of refugees could reach into the millions. Good luck sending all of those over to South Korea. You are extremely ignorant if you think such a thing is a simple task to both achieve and to accommodate. It's not. Sending them would be a logistical nightmare and South Korea instantly accommodating 100,000s to millions would be a disaster. Anyone can be sarcastic. It is among the most useless forms of rhetorical expression when not backed up by sound reasoning. Also, no one said it had to happen overnight. False premise -> false reasoning. The idea would be to gradually repatriate them to South Korea, who would in turn send them back to rebuild North Korea, as North Korea would not last >1 year in a war. Joining two countries that have fundamentally different socioeconomic conditions is never easy, but from what I understand it's what South Koreans want and are willing to sacrifice for. Thus, China is doing no one a favor by propping up North Korea on the excuse of 'refugees.' My point still stands. You can't repatriate millions of people overnight as you seem to be implying. The logistics and accommodations for that would be a catastrophe. It would take a good amount of time to make it work out decently.
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On March 15 2013 06:04 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 05:46 Azarkon wrote:On March 15 2013 05:17 JudicatorHammurabi wrote:On March 15 2013 04:08 Azarkon wrote:On March 14 2013 16:47 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society. Uh, it's your analogy that is terrible. The hypothetical North Korean refugees aren't residents / citizens of China. They're not members of Chinese economy / society. They're hypothetical refugees who would cross the border in the event of war. Not only does repatriation address one of the main cited Chinese concerns about supporting North Korea, but is also South Korean policy: South Korea has been asking China to repatriate to South Korea North Korean deserters for years. It is China that is refusing to do so out of its alliance with North Korea. But, as shown in recent weeks, the ties between China and North Korea are fraying. Chinese analysts and government mouth pieces are starting to call for China to abandon the rogue country and to strike a grand bargain with the US and South Korea. This is because there is growing belief within China that North Korea would sell out to the US in order to survive. Tal's sarcastic reply to you says enough. In the case of war, we're talking about a situation that would require moving insane amounts of people from one country to another. The analogy is just the same. It's not something you can just do simply overnight. It can be done over months, if not years, which is far more realistic. The fact you think it's a simple matter of moving people is insane. The European powers thought the same. Instead, it crashed the Greek economy and created an insane amount of poverty and all sorts of social issues, because moving tons and tons of people into a country in a sudden movement cannot immediately be accomodated. It takes time. In case of war, which you are taking about, the number of refugees could reach into the millions. Good luck sending all of those over to South Korea. You are extremely ignorant if you think such a thing is a simple task to both achieve and to accommodate. It's not. Sending them would be a logistical nightmare and South Korea instantly accommodating 100,000s to millions would be a disaster. Anyone can be sarcastic. It is among the most useless forms of rhetorical expression when not backed up by sound reasoning. Also, no one said it had to happen overnight. False premise -> false reasoning. The idea would be to gradually repatriate them to South Korea, who would in turn send them back to rebuild North Korea, as North Korea would not last >1 year in a war. Joining two countries that have fundamentally different socioeconomic conditions is never easy, but from what I understand it's what South Koreans want and are willing to sacrifice for. Thus, China is doing no one a favor by propping up North Korea on the excuse of 'refugees.' My point still stands. You can't repatriate millions of people overnight as you seem to be implying. The logistics and accommodations for that would be a catastrophe. It would take a good amount of time to make it work out decently.
I never said that it has to be overnight. China's fear with respect to North Korean refugees is that, were they to stay in China, they could become a demographic basis for irredentism. Having South Korea and the US sign an agreement that all North Korean refugees are to be returned to South / North Korea after the war solves that problem. South Korea is in no position to refuse because it has been their policy all along to repatriate North Korean deserters to South Korea. Refusing to do so when offered would be tantamount to hypocrisy.
The bottomline I'm trying to get at is that North Korean refugees isn't the only / primary issue China faces in the event of North Korean collapse. This is a roundabout way of getting to it but it's necessary to counter the argument that all China cares about is the flood of refugees. The bigger problem, in my opinion, is China's fear of US geopolitical encirclement. There is no easy way out of that one.
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