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On March 12 2013 04:04 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2013 23:35 KwarK wrote: Question is what'll happen if they repeat the artillery at civilian islands stunt from a few years ago. That shit is very escalatable. What this is all about is internal showing off. The new young leader has yet to establish his position in the completely military-driven and controlled country. He needs to build up his image, boost some charisma among the military personnel etc. And all this bullshit about SK+US joint maneuvers being preparation for invasion is ridiculous. NK sports ~1.2 million soldiers and ~5 million people in various militaristic/paramilitary organizations. SK sports ~700 thousand soldiers and a couple million in paramilitary organizations. There are ~1200 soldiers taking part in the maneuvers, which is like a drop in the ocean considering all the factors. I really dont understand about all this discussion of US and SK preparing for an invasion. Unless they have a way to stop artillery shells to Seoul no one is going to move.
No.One.
btw China doesn't care that much about the "US" being on their doorstep. No. They don't care. You know what they care more about? Having all of the brainwashed refugees FLOODING into China. They don't want them. It will DESTROY that region of all economic value.
What Manit0u said hits the spot. Most likely the little warmongering generals are probably convincing Kim to say all of this nonsense to make him look like his father, essentially a crazy guy who can pull the trigger at anytime. Much like Nixon on flaunting about how he can fire the missiles (but he doesn't and won't because this is all a bluff to the Russians to keep them in line).
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In case all China worries about is refugees, they just need to initiate a program whereby all NK refugees are repatriated back to SK. Not a big issue and I don't think a SK bent on reunification is in a position to refuse them.
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On March 11 2013 23:12 Grettin wrote:More news to tense the situation a bit! North Korea Forces Await 'Final Strike Order' from Kim Jong-un+ Show Spoiler +North Korea's armed forces are reported to be awaiting a "final order" from the country's supreme leader Kim Jong-un before launching a campaign against South Korea.
Ahead of a ten-day joint computer-simulated drill to be conducted by the US and South Korea on 11 March, the North's most widely circulated mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun said: "Our front-line military groups, the army, the navy and the air force, the anti-aircraft units and the strategic rocket units, who have entered the final all-out war stage, are awaiting the final order to strike."
The mouthpiece said the North's nuclear weapons are also in full readiness.
"Puppet regimes in the US and South Korea will be turned into a sea of fire in the blink of an eye," said the daily, raising tensions further in the Korean peninsula.
South Korea and the US have been conducting a joint field training exercise codenamed Foal Eagle since 1 March, and this is likely to go on until the end of April.
Nearly 10,000 South Korean troops and 3,500 American forces along with fighter planes are involved in the manoeuvres.
South Korea says the exercises are intended to secure its territories, but Pyongyang charges that they are aimed at the North.
The North has also announced that it will conduct a two-day nationwide military exercise in response to the US-South Korea drill.
Local reports suggest that Kim has also been visiting strategically important military installations in the country in the wake of the volatile situation.
A military source in Seoul has told the Yonhap news agency that Pyongyang is likely to fire short-range missiles or resort to other forms of attack during the drill. The source vowed to retaliate with greater force if South Korean sovereignty is violated. SourceS. Korea braces for North's unexpected provocations+ Show Spoiler +SEOUL, March 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military is preparing against unexpected military provocations by North Korea, a Seoul official said, as the communist country ratcheted up threats of a nuclear war ahead of a joint South Korea-U.S military drill.
"North Korea may possibly provoke at a time in a place we can never expect," like guerrilla attacks in cyberspace, at the sea border or even at the military demarcation line, the military official said. SourceNorth Korea Cuts Off Hotline With South Korea+ Show Spoiler +South Korea’s Defense Ministry Spokesman, Kim Min-seok confirmed on Monday that North Korea has cut off a Red Cross hotline with South Korea, as it escalates its war of words against Seoul and Washington in response to a military drill in the South and U.N. sanctions imposed for its recent nuclear test.
The North had threatened to cut off the hotline on March 11th if the United States and South Koreadid not abandon their joint military exercise.
The Red Cross hotline is used to communicate between Seoul and Pyongyang which do not have diplomatic relations. Pyongyang has also threatened to cut off a hotline with U.N. forces in South Korea, at the border "truce village" of Pammunjom.
Tensions on the Korean peninsula have risen since the North conducted a third nuclear test on February 12, prompting new U.N. sanctions.
Kim added that South Korea's military was prepared and “ready to immediately strike back if the North provokes.” South Korea and U.S. forces are conducting large-scale military drills until the end of April, while the North is also gearing up for a massive state-wide military exercise.
North Korea has accused the United States of using the military drills in South Korea as a launch pad for a nuclear war and has threatened to scrap the armistice with Washington that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.
The North has threatened a nuclear strike on the United States, but such a threat has been dismissed as rhetoric by analysts, as the North does not have the military capacity to reach the United States. The North is viewed as more likely to stage some kind of attack along a disputed sea border, if it does anything at all, rather than risk a war with South Korea and the United States, which it would lose, according to most military assessments. Source
Gosh, I pray that North Korea isn't dumb enough to start anything against the U.S. or South Korea. Can't even imagine what China would do if anything big happens between them
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On March 13 2013 05:00 Azarkon wrote: In case all China worries about is refugees, they just need to initiate a program whereby all NK refugees are repatriated back to SK. Not a big issue and I don't think a SK bent on reunification is in a position to refuse them.
Yup, that sounds nice and simple. Problem solved.
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On March 12 2013 01:16 Caphe wrote: If somehow, war broke out, well GG people. It will be a nuclear war, maybe not wide spread but at least the NK and SK will be seriously damaged or ever wiped out.
Nonsense. The nuke that North Korea tested was about big enough to blow up a few city blocks. Also I'm not sure if they could reliably deliver it.
Also Seoul is not as threatened as a lot of people think. North Korean artillery only reaches the northern 1/3 of the city, and that area is less densely populated. Also it's questionable if NK would choose to prioritize civilian targets rather than military targets.
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/#axzz2NQUmFkiL I'm not sure if this has been posted here yet, but it's an excellent analysis on the military threat that North poses, focusing on artillery attack against Seoul.
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N. Korean leader guides artillery exercise against S. Korean islands
SEOUL, March 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un guided artillery exercises that targeted South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea, the communist country's media reported Thursday.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) report monitored in Seoul said Kim oversaw live ammunition drills to test the capabilities of artillery batteries under real battle conditions. It said that exercises were aimed at the islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong that lie just south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) that acts as the de facto sea border between the two Koreas. The North does not recognize the NLL and has tried to impose its own demarcation line that has been rejected by Seoul.
Source
This is also very interesting:
N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspended
SHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland.
Source
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On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:N. Korean leader guides artillery exercise against S. Korean islandsShow nested quote +SEOUL, March 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un guided artillery exercises that targeted South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea, the communist country's media reported Thursday.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) report monitored in Seoul said Kim oversaw live ammunition drills to test the capabilities of artillery batteries under real battle conditions. It said that exercises were aimed at the islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong that lie just south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) that acts as the de facto sea border between the two Koreas. The North does not recognize the NLL and has tried to impose its own demarcation line that has been rejected by Seoul. SourceThis is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedShow nested quote +SHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source
wow, seems like NK is not interested in having friendly country's
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On March 10 2013 07:05 Hyperbola wrote: Pretty sure their "nuclear" capabilities are about 8 kilotons. That's about 2.6 times less than what the US dropped on Nagasaki, 70 years ago. And it's also about 7,000 times less than what the USSR experimented with 50 years ago. Considering how much time has passed, their nukes are probably a 100,000 times less than what the rest of the world has. The most they could do is start a nuclear war between two countries. But as far as I'm concerned, they're more likely to accidentally nuke themselves or just have their missile shot down in mid-flight by one of our ridiculously advanced missile-defense systems. When did we steal tech from the Russians and I didn't hear about it?
Our most advanced systems (PAC-3) are highly adapted on old and export-variant (eg. watered down shit sold to countries outside of USSR/Russia) S-300 batteries. Very advanced (at least by Euro/US standards), but far below what the Soviets/Russians have, and unproven in even optimized-condition short-range missile defense, nevermind ICBMs. Soviet/Russian military policy has always revolved around heavy defensive systems, which is why they have so much shit that can destroy planes and ships from ground and aerial platforms. Basically, if it's in the air or sea, it's not going to be for long. US military policy revolves around offensive air superiority and saturation bombing, and huge amounts of naval ships. Can't do the former if your air force can't function :/. That said, Russia is the only country that has ungodly amounts of air defense, so it's not a problem.
Also, US SAM batteries are in extremely low production, and most of it has been sold to foreign countries. Don't be ridiculous. If a missile is fired, it will strike. I wasn't aware we had massive ballistic missile defense arrays in South korea, anyways.
On March 10 2013 04:25 Blezza wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2013 04:23 kafkaesque wrote:On March 09 2013 08:00 Lucumo wrote:On March 09 2013 06:41 quaZa wrote: Atleast its not Germany now starting WW3. They didn't start WW1, so it doesn't really matter. In a way, they did. Wilhelm II. pretty much pushed Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia. Obviously it's much more complex than that and most of Europe was poised for war, but Germany was very directly responsible for the initiation of WWI. I thought it originated from some guy getting assassinated, surely its the Killers fault The assassination of Franz Ferdinand was little more than the starting gun to go to war. Every imperial European country in the war was already poised and hellbent on going to war long before the assassination. There was going to be war, they wanted war, and everyone knew it. Just needed a really good excuse and something to sell to the people. The assassination provided the perfect opportunity.
On March 13 2013 22:05 Tal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2013 05:00 Azarkon wrote: In case all China worries about is refugees, they just need to initiate a program whereby all NK refugees are repatriated back to SK. Not a big issue and I don't think a SK bent on reunification is in a position to refuse them. Yup, that sounds nice and simple. Problem solved. I know you're being sarcastic, but Azarkon's idea is indeed terrible. It's been done before. When the Turkish nationalists took over western Turkey from the British, French, and Greeks, an international arrangement was made (especially after the disaster at Smyrna) to basically deport all the Greeks to Greece, and all the Turks and Muslims in Greece to Turkey. The repatriation was literally a disaster for Greek economy and society.
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On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedShow nested quote +SHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now.
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On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now.
Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't that mean that N.K. won't export to China's inland !? (not a natural english speaker)
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On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now.
It says " NORTH KOREA's food EXPORTS TO china suspended". I think you got it wrong. It's the other way around. NK stops selling to CN
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On March 14 2013 17:53 Marti wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now. It says " NORTH KOREA's food EXPORTS TO china suspended". I think you got it wrong. It's the other way around. NK stops selling to CN Suspension of exports is never a one way street, both countries gets equally affected, in NK's case this will affect their import of food from China as well. Not to mention that this can be escalated. It's bad. NK already has shortage of food as it is, they did not need this as well. :/
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On March 14 2013 17:59 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 17:53 Marti wrote:On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now. It says " NORTH KOREA's food EXPORTS TO china suspended". I think you got it wrong. It's the other way around. NK stops selling to CN Suspension of exports is never a one way street, both countries gets equally affected, in NK's case this will affect their import of food from China as well. Not to mention that this can be escalated. It's bad. NK already has shortage of food as it is, they did not need this as well. :/
Ah good point. But how much do they really import from china ? And will this really affect NK-CN relationship ? As in, does china really care about that ? It seems to me like it's nk's way of saying " i don't depend on you " more than anything. And i could see china just not caring about it. But maybe i'm wrong
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the sea food will feed it's army now
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Does this remind anyone else of playing Civ 2 and wiping out a civilization until they have like 1 city left. Then for the rest of the game they are all "give us all your money and tech or we'll wipe you out blah blah"
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On March 14 2013 17:53 Marti wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 17:44 Integra wrote:On March 14 2013 09:45 Grettin wrote:This is also very interesting: N. Korea's sea food exports to China suspendedSHENYANG, China, March 13 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of cheap shellfish to China have been put on hold since early this week as the communist country ratcheted up its belligerent rhetoric and threatened war with South Korea and the United States, according to Chinese traders on Wednesday.
The Chinese traders in Hunchun said inbound shipments of North Korea shellfish have been suspended. Hunchun, located near the North's eastern border with China, is the gateway for the communist country's exports of cheap sea food to China's inland. Source Now this is bad. The population of North Korea will have even less to eat now. It says " NORTH KOREA's food EXPORTS TO china suspended". I think you got it wrong. It's the other way around. NK stops selling to CN
People were making money off of those exports, its still going to negatively impact the NK citizens involved in that trade.
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the sea NK's food will feed it's army now
fixed, np
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This feels more serious than the island bombing in 2010 when I was thinking a war would be possible. Didn't the SK president change into a person who's more willing to wage war against NK?
Still, NK can't be stupid enough to attack SK and get war declared on them, right? Against the clusterbomb / napalm bombers I can't see them lasting even a week if US takes it seriously, it's not like the amount of soldiers even matters against that stuff. *Sighs*
Got to hope that it's just internal showing off like: US and SK doing normal training -> "US and SK are planning to attack us! We will fight the evil invaders!" -> US and SK of course won't attack -> "Look at how our great leader repelled the evil US and SK armies who were too afraid to attack!" or something.
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On March 14 2013 18:34 NexCa wrote:fixed, np  well it's bad either way. you don't feed your army for nothing
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On March 14 2013 18:37 Shikyo wrote: This feels more serious than the island bombing in 2010 when I was thinking a war would be possible. Didn't the SK president change into a person who's more willing to wage war against NK?
During the island bombing in 2010, South Korean authorities were afterwards criticized for being too slow to respond (see Timeline at Wikipedia). It took more than ten minutes (twice) for the South Korean forces to get the go-ahead from their superiors in order to return fire and people felt it should have been a quicker response. Consequently, there has been talk about authorizing troops to return fire without contacting their superiors each time. If that is the case, then small mistakes (misfires) could more easily escalate into something big, if fire is returned by one eager soldier on the other side, which in turn draws more fire etc. As such, the stakes may be higher this time than in 2010.
That being said, I don't actually know what procedures are in place to ensure that things do not escalate. I keep seeing talk about ordering soldiers to return fire at will every now and then (most recently when North Korea said they were going to scrap the cease-fire a few days ago), which means that they probably did not get the order the last time I saw talk about it. Who knows, maybe they still have to contact their superiors before returning fire, in which case a bombing like the one 2010 could very well play out the same way it did in 2010. However, public opinion seems to have shifted towards heavier retaliation against the North if they attack.
Keep in mind also that some of the North's attacks aimed at leveling Seoul in righteous fire amount to cyber attacks against government servers or jamming of civilian air communications (or blowing up a nuclear device inside their own country, for that matter). We may hope that the impending doom this time consists of a bunch of especially nasty words or a relatively harmless computer virus or something like that.
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