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Caphe
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Vietnam10817 Posts
March 08 2013 03:58 GMT
#501
On March 08 2013 12:46 white_horse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 07:44 FabledIntegral wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:01 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 06:55 KwarK wrote:
On March 08 2013 03:08 DavoS wrote:
Mods working their butts off on this thread.
Long story short, we can't really respond with military violence
+ Show Spoiler +
The big issue with dealing with all of North Korea's threats is that if they do in fact have nuclear warheads, they could launch one and have it hit Seoul in about 5 minutes. That's 14 million people. And they don't need a rocket that can go to space, they just need one strong enough to shoot a hundred miles or so. You can't evacuate a city Seoul's size that quickly, and for all the hype we have for our anti-nuclear defenses, none of them have been field tested. I don't think anyone wants to find out how well they do or don't work by using the population of South Korea as the guinea pig.


EDIT:
On March 07 2013 23:59 arChieSC2 wrote:
good luck NK!


The mods have a very bizarre definition of what is anti-American (or anti-western or whatever) enough to dole out a warning.

Edit 2: the revenge:
So Kim Jong-Il died not terribly long ago. And now North Korea is having another Nuclear launch.
Proven evidence of... Ghosts. *ba-dum tish*

No, they haven't yet been able to miniaturise the nuclear device to the point where it can be used as a warhead. They'd have to put it on a truck or a boat and get it to Seoul that way. At the moment the risk to Seoul is from conventional munitions which will still level the place with colossal loss of life.


North korea's artillery tubes won't "level" seoul with "colossal" loss of life. The south korean military would hit back the moment they fire the first shell. It's hard to do a lot of damage when your own weapons have been blown by enemy artillery or airstrikes.


This is completely false. Even fairly conservative estimates put the losses of life in the hundreds of thousands at minimum. There is no question that the North Korean army could completely overrun the South Korean and U.S. army on foot with their initial waves. Would we push back? Of course, but not until at least a few days later, minimum. In the meantime North Korea would blow South Korea to shit.


If you don't know enough about what you are talking about, don't make statements about it, especially big claims like this one. Shelling seoul means that south korean airstrikes and counter artillery would destroy much of the north's ability to make artillery barrages. Also, south korean military intelligence and US satellites monitor north korea's military movements 24/7 and if it was really imminent that north korea was actually going to attack, they would probably make preemptive strikes.

And "completely overrun south korea" and "blow south korea to shit"? Are you trolling? Or are you actually being serious? Do you think the south korean military is just going to sit there and let them pass? This isn't 1950. South korea has well-trained US-supported armies. The north korean military uses severely outdated equipment and most of its soldiers are underfed and do not train regularly because of money problems. The DMZ is heavily fortified and the regions north of seoul are lined by 20 foot concrete walls to prevent north korean tanks from rolling down. The entire south korean military exists and trains in the sole purpose of defending the country in the event of a north korean attack so I am completely clueless as to how you came to the conclusion that north korea is going to walk over south korea like you wrote.

Well, this is not gonna be a war so .

Anyway, I think the original poster overestimate NK's army power and you overestimate the SK's army power as well. Even if there will be a war, I don't see how nuclear weapon won't not be used. NK knows that with US troops station in SK, there is no way they can take SK in a conventional war. They have to use nulear weapon. China is not gonna help them like they did in 1953, at least not as long as the US and SK army won't push back to the North.
Terran
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42955 Posts
March 08 2013 04:01 GMT
#502
On March 08 2013 10:34 1Dhalism wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 10:12 Schlootle wrote:
On March 08 2013 09:56 Salazarz wrote:
People need to stop assuming that NK is ruled by a bunch of crazies simply because they don't play by NATO's and UN's rules. They say stupid shit all the time, sure, and it's a despotic police state without a doubt - but the people in charge are not insane at all. They're actually pretty good at what they do (that being running a brutal police state, obviously). Also for reasons already stated in this thread, it makes perfect sense for them to be building nukes even if they aren't planning to actually attack anyone.


Oh I am sure most of us here agree with you all the way, but some people like to speculate what could happen in "what if" scenarios.

This is indeed just a bluff, its the only thing North Korea has to remain a relevant presence in the region. Without it they would easily be forgotten and easily pushed around.

How can you doubt that they are insane. I dont think anyone would argue that Stalin was insane, and he was doing the same thing, except he actually had a country that had the capacity to back his words.
Now a year ago i would argue that they are insane, but might not be stupid, but that's out of the window now since they seem to not value their relationship with China or Russia either.
The father mightve been an evil doctrine mastermind, but the son grew up on that doctrine, and he might very well believe his lies.

On the contrary, I think most people with a good grasp of history would understand that Stalin, particularly in the later years, was a full blown alcoholic and was experiencing paranoid delusions among other symptoms.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
revel8
Profile Joined January 2012
United Kingdom3022 Posts
March 08 2013 04:08 GMT
#503
This is potentially serious shit. Some folks on here seem blase about war kicking off. If North Korean leadership are irrational then it is VERY easy to kick off a shooting war, cos things can escalate very quickly. And if war does develop, lots of people are gonna die, no matter the final outcome. Have people forgotten the Korean War or Vietnam? Things hardly went according to plan for anybody. Have people forgotten that China is a factor in any conflict and that the USA is still engaged in Afghanistan?

The ONLY thing maintaining the ceasefire is because kicking off a conflict again seems irrational, but that may not be the view of the North Korean leadership. Who knows what people will do if they are desperate enough? I am not saying war is likely, but people should not take it lightly. Some people think flying a plane into a building is an irrational thing to do, but it happened.
FabledIntegral
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States9232 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 04:27:20
March 08 2013 04:20 GMT
#504
On March 08 2013 12:46 white_horse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 07:44 FabledIntegral wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:01 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 06:55 KwarK wrote:
On March 08 2013 03:08 DavoS wrote:
Mods working their butts off on this thread.
Long story short, we can't really respond with military violence
+ Show Spoiler +
The big issue with dealing with all of North Korea's threats is that if they do in fact have nuclear warheads, they could launch one and have it hit Seoul in about 5 minutes. That's 14 million people. And they don't need a rocket that can go to space, they just need one strong enough to shoot a hundred miles or so. You can't evacuate a city Seoul's size that quickly, and for all the hype we have for our anti-nuclear defenses, none of them have been field tested. I don't think anyone wants to find out how well they do or don't work by using the population of South Korea as the guinea pig.


EDIT:
On March 07 2013 23:59 arChieSC2 wrote:
good luck NK!


The mods have a very bizarre definition of what is anti-American (or anti-western or whatever) enough to dole out a warning.

Edit 2: the revenge:
So Kim Jong-Il died not terribly long ago. And now North Korea is having another Nuclear launch.
Proven evidence of... Ghosts. *ba-dum tish*

No, they haven't yet been able to miniaturise the nuclear device to the point where it can be used as a warhead. They'd have to put it on a truck or a boat and get it to Seoul that way. At the moment the risk to Seoul is from conventional munitions which will still level the place with colossal loss of life.


North korea's artillery tubes won't "level" seoul with "colossal" loss of life. The south korean military would hit back the moment they fire the first shell. It's hard to do a lot of damage when your own weapons have been blown by enemy artillery or airstrikes.


This is completely false. Even fairly conservative estimates put the losses of life in the hundreds of thousands at minimum. There is no question that the North Korean army could completely overrun the South Korean and U.S. army on foot with their initial waves. Would we push back? Of course, but not until at least a few days later, minimum. In the meantime North Korea would blow South Korea to shit.


If you don't know enough about what you are talking about, don't make statements about it, especially big claims like this one. Shelling seoul means that south korean airstrikes and counter artillery would destroy much of the north's ability to make artillery barrages. Also, south korean military intelligence and US satellites monitor north korea's military movements 24/7 and if it was really imminent that north korea was actually going to attack, it's highly likely that they would make preemptive strikes.

And "completely overrun south korea" and "blow south korea to shit"? Are you trolling? Or are you actually being serious? Do you think the south korean military is just going to sit there and let them pass? This isn't 1950. South korea has well-trained armies. It also has access to US military technologies thanks to its alliance with the US. The north korean military uses severely outdated equipment and most of its soldiers are underfed and do not train regularly because of money problems. The DMZ is heavily fortified and the regions north of seoul are lined by 20 foot concrete walls to prevent north korean tanks from rolling down. The entire south korean military exists and trains in the sole purpose of defending the country in the event of a north korean attack so I am completely clueless as to how you came to the conclusion that north korea is going to walk over south korea like you wrote.


I specialized in East-Asian International Economics and Events and focused particularly on the North Korean/South Korean conflict during my undergrad. I took entire classes devoted exclusively to the topic (with the other less discussed topic being the China/Taiwan conflict). We had South Korean students who had already done their mandatory service give speeches on the matter. One of my good friends, who told me I'd be his best man when he got married, is one of these South Koreans who has served in the military along the border and told me all about his experience. I am very acquainted in the subject matter, thank you very much.

To clarify, completely overrun referred to simply the front line of defense at the DMZ. If a fight broke out right now, the North Koreans would easily overrun the SK/U.S. combined forces. It would not be a permanent situation, of course, but due to sheer manpower they could not hold the lines. Like you said, the army exists for a sole reason of defending the country in the event of a North Korean attack. That's why the vast majority of their drills involve scenarios involving an impromptu NK invasion involve simply attempting to hold the line and then when that fails, certain fallback procedures.
Jaaaaasper
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States10225 Posts
March 08 2013 04:23 GMT
#505
On March 08 2013 13:08 revel8 wrote:
This is potentially serious shit. Some folks on here seem blase about war kicking off. If North Korean leadership are irrational then it is VERY easy to kick off a shooting war, cos things can escalate very quickly. And if war does develop, lots of people are gonna die, no matter the final outcome. Have people forgotten the Korean War or Vietnam? Things hardly went according to plan for anybody. Have people forgotten that China is a factor in any conflict and that the USA is still engaged in Afghanistan?

The ONLY thing maintaining the ceasefire is because kicking off a conflict again seems irrational, but that may not be the view of the North Korean leadership. Who knows what people will do if they are desperate enough? I am not saying war is likely, but people should not take it lightly. Some people think flying a plane into a building is an irrational thing to do, but it happened.

No way china gets into a shooting war for North Korea, especially if they start it with a nuclear strike. A lot of people will die, but unless North Korea nukes a major population center, most of the causalities will be North Korean. China is more likely to be attacking NK is that situation than defending them. The Chinese leaders don't want a conflict, and no way do they want to kick off a nuclear war for a ally that they don't really want to support anyways.
Hey do you want to hear a joke? Chinese production value. | I thought he had a aegis- Ayesee | When did 7ing mad last have a good game, 2012?
FabledIntegral
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States9232 Posts
March 08 2013 04:24 GMT
#506
On March 08 2013 13:01 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 10:34 1Dhalism wrote:
On March 08 2013 10:12 Schlootle wrote:
On March 08 2013 09:56 Salazarz wrote:
People need to stop assuming that NK is ruled by a bunch of crazies simply because they don't play by NATO's and UN's rules. They say stupid shit all the time, sure, and it's a despotic police state without a doubt - but the people in charge are not insane at all. They're actually pretty good at what they do (that being running a brutal police state, obviously). Also for reasons already stated in this thread, it makes perfect sense for them to be building nukes even if they aren't planning to actually attack anyone.


Oh I am sure most of us here agree with you all the way, but some people like to speculate what could happen in "what if" scenarios.

This is indeed just a bluff, its the only thing North Korea has to remain a relevant presence in the region. Without it they would easily be forgotten and easily pushed around.

How can you doubt that they are insane. I dont think anyone would argue that Stalin was insane, and he was doing the same thing, except he actually had a country that had the capacity to back his words.
Now a year ago i would argue that they are insane, but might not be stupid, but that's out of the window now since they seem to not value their relationship with China or Russia either.
The father mightve been an evil doctrine mastermind, but the son grew up on that doctrine, and he might very well believe his lies.

On the contrary, I think most people with a good grasp of history would understand that Stalin, particularly in the later years, was a full blown alcoholic and was experiencing paranoid delusions among other symptoms.


Judging by the rest of the post, I'm fairly confident he was saying "I don't think anyone would argue that Stalin *wasn't* insane."
heroyi
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1064 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 04:44:50
March 08 2013 04:32 GMT
#507
N.Korea is not ruled by retards. They know what will happen if a strike was to happen. Even they know what folly it would be to launch a nuke. The only way they would ever consider it seriously would be if they were about to die and fall (i.e in some serious shit).

Also for those that are unaware. NK initially will overrun the border and occupy in SK area for a brief time. Even though majority of their troops are malnourished they do have a very large military population (ranked high in terms of military troops). In fact, NK has a formidable amount of special forces troop that are all highly trained and can rival many special forces from other countries (look up Raid of Blue House). Obviously it wouldnt be long before US and SK are able to group up, centralize, and coordinate their movements. Also SK have plans in the time that NK was to invade (blowing up traffic system to isolate SK into a number of isolated islands).

NK holds SK as a hostage. This will be sufficient, sadly, enough for them as a bargaining tool. They won't be resorting to nukes as the hostage situation is highly effective already. This is another bluff. Remember when SK "violated" their waters with a navy game and shot "warning" artillery shells at SK in which SK kindly returned a shit ton of shells back at them. You have to remember that although the leaders of NK are weird they are not completely politically inept. There have been a number of agreements that of which NK and US were able to construct and sign. Everyone knows that a single nuke will cause a nuclear holocaust/genocide.Even they know the folly of being a leader of a ruined, smoldering, radioactive country. There is gonna have to be a REAL good reason as to why they would considering using it. And if there was a huge concern I am sure US and other countries covert facilities know it and are already in action to prevent it from happening or at least in position for damage control.

edit:
NK would do a crap ton of damage to Seoul in under 60 secs. They have nearly ALL of their artillery pointing right at Seoul. Under 1 min. I guarantee you a lot of things will be demolished and a lot of people are going to be dead. Those artillery guns uses are limited to defense and firing at Seoul (they have less than 2 weeks of gas to move them around if needed). Businesses will be hurt, the economy would be ruined there and ultimately all of effects will ripple into the world market hurting a lot of countries/people.
wat wat in my pants
Orek
Profile Joined February 2012
1665 Posts
March 08 2013 04:33 GMT
#508
The day N.K. fires a nuke or attacks Seoul is the day future history books will record as the last day of N.K. and its Kim dynasty. I doubt Kim Jong Un and other privileged military officials are stupid enough to make such a mistake which only hurts their "good" life in the north. While there is no 100% in international politics, or anything in life, North actually attacking South or U.S. is pretty much out of question. They are just negotiationg the price as any companies would do.
white_horse
Profile Joined July 2010
1019 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 04:42:04
March 08 2013 04:38 GMT
#509
On March 08 2013 13:20 FabledIntegral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 12:46 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:44 FabledIntegral wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:01 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 06:55 KwarK wrote:
On March 08 2013 03:08 DavoS wrote:
Mods working their butts off on this thread.
Long story short, we can't really respond with military violence
+ Show Spoiler +
The big issue with dealing with all of North Korea's threats is that if they do in fact have nuclear warheads, they could launch one and have it hit Seoul in about 5 minutes. That's 14 million people. And they don't need a rocket that can go to space, they just need one strong enough to shoot a hundred miles or so. You can't evacuate a city Seoul's size that quickly, and for all the hype we have for our anti-nuclear defenses, none of them have been field tested. I don't think anyone wants to find out how well they do or don't work by using the population of South Korea as the guinea pig.


EDIT:
On March 07 2013 23:59 arChieSC2 wrote:
good luck NK!


The mods have a very bizarre definition of what is anti-American (or anti-western or whatever) enough to dole out a warning.

Edit 2: the revenge:
So Kim Jong-Il died not terribly long ago. And now North Korea is having another Nuclear launch.
Proven evidence of... Ghosts. *ba-dum tish*

No, they haven't yet been able to miniaturise the nuclear device to the point where it can be used as a warhead. They'd have to put it on a truck or a boat and get it to Seoul that way. At the moment the risk to Seoul is from conventional munitions which will still level the place with colossal loss of life.


North korea's artillery tubes won't "level" seoul with "colossal" loss of life. The south korean military would hit back the moment they fire the first shell. It's hard to do a lot of damage when your own weapons have been blown by enemy artillery or airstrikes.


This is completely false. Even fairly conservative estimates put the losses of life in the hundreds of thousands at minimum. There is no question that the North Korean army could completely overrun the South Korean and U.S. army on foot with their initial waves. Would we push back? Of course, but not until at least a few days later, minimum. In the meantime North Korea would blow South Korea to shit.


If you don't know enough about what you are talking about, don't make statements about it, especially big claims like this one. Shelling seoul means that south korean airstrikes and counter artillery would destroy much of the north's ability to make artillery barrages. Also, south korean military intelligence and US satellites monitor north korea's military movements 24/7 and if it was really imminent that north korea was actually going to attack, it's highly likely that they would make preemptive strikes.

And "completely overrun south korea" and "blow south korea to shit"? Are you trolling? Or are you actually being serious? Do you think the south korean military is just going to sit there and let them pass? This isn't 1950. South korea has well-trained armies. It also has access to US military technologies thanks to its alliance with the US. The north korean military uses severely outdated equipment and most of its soldiers are underfed and do not train regularly because of money problems. The DMZ is heavily fortified and the regions north of seoul are lined by 20 foot concrete walls to prevent north korean tanks from rolling down. The entire south korean military exists and trains in the sole purpose of defending the country in the event of a north korean attack so I am completely clueless as to how you came to the conclusion that north korea is going to walk over south korea like you wrote.


I specialized in East-Asian International Economics and Events and focused particularly on the North Korean/South Korean conflict during my undergrad. I took entire classes devoted exclusively to the topic (with the other less discussed topic being the China/Taiwan conflict). We had South Korean students who had already done their mandatory service give speeches on the matter. One of my good friends, who told me I'd be his best man when he got married, is one of these South Koreans who has served in the military along the border and told me all about his experience. I am very acquainted in the subject matter, thank you very much.

To clarify, completely overrun referred to simply the front line of defense at the DMZ. If a fight broke out right now, the North Koreans would easily overrun the SK/U.S. combined forces. It would not be a permanent situation, of course, but due to sheer manpower they could not hold the lines.


I studied at a korean university in seoul and have taken courses related to this topic too. Does that make me an expert on this? It's merely anecdotal evidence. If you are as well-versed in the topic as you say you are, I'm still not exactly sure what kind of research or books you have studied or what kind of things your professor said in order to have you come to make big claims like north korea will "blow south korea to shit". I'm sure it's impossible to stop the 1.1 million north korean soldiers running across the DMZ but "blow south korea to shit"?
Translator
DonKey_
Profile Joined May 2010
Liechtenstein1356 Posts
March 08 2013 04:45 GMT
#510
I'm confused why people think NK would invade SK through some ground war. Its common knowledge that NK's army logistics is terribad. Let's assume they invade, then what? The soldiers they send will not be supplied to occupy SK, the only thing they could do is damage SK's infrastructure. That also would make no sense as NK's endgame is to reunite SK and NK.
`Oh, you can't help that,' said the Cat: `we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad.'
FromShouri
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
United States862 Posts
March 08 2013 04:46 GMT
#511
So what do you all think of north korea dissolving all the non hostility pacts and threatening to turn Washington and Seoul into flaming ashes?
Limited Edition, lets do some simple addition, $50 for a T-Shirt is just some ignorant bitch shit.
screamingpalm
Profile Joined October 2011
United States1527 Posts
March 08 2013 04:47 GMT
#512
On March 08 2013 13:46 FromShouri wrote:
So what do you all think of north korea dissolving all the non hostility pacts and threatening to turn Washington and Seoul into flaming ashes?


Baiting and attempts to drive a wedge between US and China imo.
MMT University is coming! http://www.mmtuniversity.org/
SirKibbleX
Profile Blog Joined October 2006
United States479 Posts
March 08 2013 04:48 GMT
#513
People always act like military combat still works in a 1:1 way like it did circa the 1800s. Let me tell you something: one sniper in a good position, or one good machine gun crew, can essentially kill INFINITE numbers of men if their military force-multipliers are effective enough. German air power was able to hold off superior Russian ground forces for a long while because they were able to achieve 100:1 kill-death ratios in air combat, because of their superior training, tactics, and equipment.

I suspect that if the North Koreans tried to invade SK on foot or in simple vehicles their losses would be utterly catastrophic.

If you don't understand how a defensive army with cutting-edge technology and thinking that has had 50+ years to prepare for a linear, one-dimensional invasion can hold off said invasion, you aren't very creative. I'm sure the SK military has doctrines and battle plans for a variety of invasion scenarios (tunnels, airborne, nuclear attack, mine-clearing, etc. etc. etc.)
Praemonitus, Praemunitus.
FabledIntegral
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States9232 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 04:51:49
March 08 2013 04:48 GMT
#514
On March 08 2013 13:38 white_horse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2013 13:20 FabledIntegral wrote:
On March 08 2013 12:46 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:44 FabledIntegral wrote:
On March 08 2013 07:01 white_horse wrote:
On March 08 2013 06:55 KwarK wrote:
On March 08 2013 03:08 DavoS wrote:
Mods working their butts off on this thread.
Long story short, we can't really respond with military violence
+ Show Spoiler +
The big issue with dealing with all of North Korea's threats is that if they do in fact have nuclear warheads, they could launch one and have it hit Seoul in about 5 minutes. That's 14 million people. And they don't need a rocket that can go to space, they just need one strong enough to shoot a hundred miles or so. You can't evacuate a city Seoul's size that quickly, and for all the hype we have for our anti-nuclear defenses, none of them have been field tested. I don't think anyone wants to find out how well they do or don't work by using the population of South Korea as the guinea pig.


EDIT:
On March 07 2013 23:59 arChieSC2 wrote:
good luck NK!


The mods have a very bizarre definition of what is anti-American (or anti-western or whatever) enough to dole out a warning.

Edit 2: the revenge:
So Kim Jong-Il died not terribly long ago. And now North Korea is having another Nuclear launch.
Proven evidence of... Ghosts. *ba-dum tish*

No, they haven't yet been able to miniaturise the nuclear device to the point where it can be used as a warhead. They'd have to put it on a truck or a boat and get it to Seoul that way. At the moment the risk to Seoul is from conventional munitions which will still level the place with colossal loss of life.


North korea's artillery tubes won't "level" seoul with "colossal" loss of life. The south korean military would hit back the moment they fire the first shell. It's hard to do a lot of damage when your own weapons have been blown by enemy artillery or airstrikes.


This is completely false. Even fairly conservative estimates put the losses of life in the hundreds of thousands at minimum. There is no question that the North Korean army could completely overrun the South Korean and U.S. army on foot with their initial waves. Would we push back? Of course, but not until at least a few days later, minimum. In the meantime North Korea would blow South Korea to shit.


If you don't know enough about what you are talking about, don't make statements about it, especially big claims like this one. Shelling seoul means that south korean airstrikes and counter artillery would destroy much of the north's ability to make artillery barrages. Also, south korean military intelligence and US satellites monitor north korea's military movements 24/7 and if it was really imminent that north korea was actually going to attack, it's highly likely that they would make preemptive strikes.

And "completely overrun south korea" and "blow south korea to shit"? Are you trolling? Or are you actually being serious? Do you think the south korean military is just going to sit there and let them pass? This isn't 1950. South korea has well-trained armies. It also has access to US military technologies thanks to its alliance with the US. The north korean military uses severely outdated equipment and most of its soldiers are underfed and do not train regularly because of money problems. The DMZ is heavily fortified and the regions north of seoul are lined by 20 foot concrete walls to prevent north korean tanks from rolling down. The entire south korean military exists and trains in the sole purpose of defending the country in the event of a north korean attack so I am completely clueless as to how you came to the conclusion that north korea is going to walk over south korea like you wrote.


I specialized in East-Asian International Economics and Events and focused particularly on the North Korean/South Korean conflict during my undergrad. I took entire classes devoted exclusively to the topic (with the other less discussed topic being the China/Taiwan conflict). We had South Korean students who had already done their mandatory service give speeches on the matter. One of my good friends, who told me I'd be his best man when he got married, is one of these South Koreans who has served in the military along the border and told me all about his experience. I am very acquainted in the subject matter, thank you very much.

To clarify, completely overrun referred to simply the front line of defense at the DMZ. If a fight broke out right now, the North Koreans would easily overrun the SK/U.S. combined forces. It would not be a permanent situation, of course, but due to sheer manpower they could not hold the lines.


I studied at a korean university in seoul and have taken courses related to this topic too. Does that make me an expert on this? It's merely anecdotal evidence. If you are as well-versed in the topic as you say you are, I'm still not exactly sure what kind of research or books you have studied or what kind of things your professor said in order to have you come to make big claims like north korea will "blow south korea to shit". I'm sure it's impossible to stop the 1.1 million north korean soldiers running across the DMZ but "blow south korea to shit"?


Pfffft is that what you're nitpicking on? Fine, I should have said "blow Seoul to shit" in the sense Seoul would take catastrophic damage (and we both know Seoul is a massive portion of SK). Would it be erased from the map? Of course not, not even close. But I'd consider "blown to shit" having hundreds of thousands of casualties minimum coupled with devastating, crippling economic damage, and the frontlines falling on top of that.

I didn't say I was an expert - I said I was well acquainted with it and thus was qualified to at least discuss it. You were the one that asked for my background in the subject.

On March 08 2013 13:48 SirKibbleX wrote:
People always act like military combat still works in a 1:1 way like it did circa the 1800s. Let me tell you something: one sniper in a good position, or one good machine gun crew, can essentially kill INFINITE numbers of men if their military force-multipliers are effective enough. German air power was able to hold off superior Russian ground forces for a long while because they were able to achieve 100:1 kill-death ratios in air combat, because of their superior training, tactics, and equipment.

I suspect that if the North Koreans tried to invade SK on foot or in simple vehicles their losses would be utterly catastrophic.

If you don't understand how a defensive army with cutting-edge technology and thinking that has had 50+ years to prepare for a linear, one-dimensional invasion can hold off said invasion, you aren't very creative. I'm sure the SK military has doctrines and battle plans for a variety of invasion scenarios (tunnels, airborne, nuclear attack, mine-clearing, etc. etc. etc.)


And people like you for some reason envision the battle taking place on an open field where said a machine gun crew can mow down 100+ people before getting taken out. You're right, those situations are accounted for, it doesn't mean they've mapped out where all the tunnels are and that the NK still won't completely initially overwhelm them anyways. It's amusing you can insinuate these things when most people from SK themselves don't envision the initial line being held. You underestimate sheer manpower, if anything, discounting it inappropriately because of technological advancement. No one in this thread is contesting that the NK army would get absolutely shit on in the end.
coldSnaH
Profile Joined June 2012
50 Posts
March 08 2013 04:51 GMT
#515
I say send in a special ops team and take out all their retarded leaders... ez
SoleSteeler
Profile Joined April 2003
Canada5446 Posts
March 08 2013 04:51 GMT
#516
Funny how South Koreans themselves never seem to worry about this kinda stuff. I've been here for more than 3 years (not that long, I know) and no one is ever phased when this stuff happens. It's on the news, but there's never any state of "panic" and people just don't really... react. That said, I wish there could be some peaceful resolution, and the threat of war is always a bit scary to think about as a foreigner here... It's easy for everyone to talk about "blowing Seoul to shit" but it's hard to read that when you... live in Seoul. >_<
heroyi
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1064 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-08 04:57:47
March 08 2013 04:55 GMT
#517
On March 08 2013 13:48 SirKibbleX wrote:
People always act like military combat still works in a 1:1 way like it did circa the 1800s. Let me tell you something: one sniper in a good position, or one good machine gun crew, can essentially kill INFINITE numbers of men if their military force-multipliers are effective enough. German air power was able to hold off superior Russian ground forces for a long while because they were able to achieve 100:1 kill-death ratios in air combat, because of their superior training, tactics, and equipment.

I suspect that if the North Koreans tried to invade SK on foot or in simple vehicles their losses would be utterly catastrophic.

If you don't understand how a defensive army with cutting-edge technology and thinking that has had 50+ years to prepare for a linear, one-dimensional invasion can hold off said invasion, you aren't very creative. I'm sure the SK military has doctrines and battle plans for a variety of invasion scenarios (tunnels, airborne, nuclear attack, mine-clearing, etc. etc. etc.)

You severely underestimate NK. They have approximately 1.1 million troops. If they wanted to charge and surge at the DMZ, they WILL break through. That is not the question. There is nowhere nearly as many troops needed to defend the DMZ. The question is how far, long will they stay and how much damage are they gonna do in the short time they are there before reinforcements pushes them back. Also, NK special forces really aren't something to scoff about.

edit:
On March 08 2013 13:51 SoleSteeler wrote:
Funny how South Koreans themselves never seem to worry about this kinda stuff. I've been here for more than 3 years (not that long, I know) and no one is ever phased when this stuff happens. It's on the news, but there's never any state of "panic" and people just don't really... react. That said, I wish there could be some peaceful resolution, and the threat of war is always a bit scary to think about as a foreigner here... It's easy for everyone to talk about "blowing Seoul to shit" but it's hard to read that when you... live in Seoul. >_<

Would hate to be in Seoul when the air raid alarms go off :/
wat wat in my pants
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 08 2013 05:01 GMT
#518
On March 08 2013 13:33 Orek wrote:
The day N.K. fires a nuke or attacks Seoul is the day future history books will record as the last day of N.K. and its Kim dynasty. I doubt Kim Jong Un and other privileged military officials are stupid enough to make such a mistake which only hurts their "good" life in the north. While there is no 100% in international politics, or anything in life, North actually attacking South or U.S. is pretty much out of question. They are just negotiationg the price as any companies would do.

that's easy to say until an out of touch guy turns up.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
koreasilver
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
9109 Posts
March 08 2013 05:07 GMT
#519
I mean obviously Seoul would get severely damaged in the case of an invasion, but it's so blatantly obvious that NK simply cannot win a war against SK for so many reasons. Sure they might take the capital temporarily but at the end of the war NK will be gone.
Corrosive
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada3741 Posts
March 08 2013 05:08 GMT
#520
On March 08 2013 14:07 koreasilver wrote:
I mean obviously Seoul would get severely damaged in the case of an invasion, but it's so blatantly obvious that NK simply cannot win a war against SK for so many reasons. Sure they might take the capital temporarily but at the end of the war NK will be gone.

this is true considering china doesn't want to be involved in this.

there is no way north korea succeeds in a total takeover of anything.

the problem is that they would likely kill a number of people in the high hundred thousands or even millions.
Maruprime.
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