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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
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Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
On October 20 2012 03:52 BluePanther wrote: shit just got real. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html every day i check this map, and every damn day i get scared | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
i mean if america goes for romney with 300 electoral votes then the place is likely beyond redemption. time to move to australia | ||
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Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:26 Voltaire wrote: It seems like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are the three states that really matter at this point. If either candidate takes all 3, they win. obama is going to take the first two and romney is taking florida. Neither is going to win all three | ||
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farvacola
United States18818 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:06 JonnyBNoHo wrote: Those issues are important when discussing the corporate tax code as a whole, not when discussing a specific industry. If you were to replace the oil industry with another one (such as solar) those tax provisions still apply so they aren't worth addressing in an industry-specific context. Those issues are also very 'squishy' in terms of whether or not they should be considered a subsidy. Often things such as foreign tax credits and pass-through status are enacted to prevent multiple layers of taxation that would result in an absurdly high tax rate, not to offer a subsidy. I think those issues can be just as important when discussing how general tax law affects industry specific entities, in this case oil companies. What I am getting at here is that our general corporate tax code may not be as industry neutral in its provisions as originally intended, and to look at how pass through and dual capacity taxpayer status might affect different industries and corporations seems like something we ought to be doing a lot more of. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:26 xDaunt wrote: Let me make a prediction about these polls and where they'll eventually end up. Take the average of any set of polls for a battleground state (or nationally for that matter), add all of the "undecideds" to Romney's column, and then move another 2 points from Obama to Romney, and you'll have something fairly close to where I believe we'll be election day. This prediction is subject to some major gaffe or other election-rocking event occurring over the next two weeks. So basically you're saying we'll see a historically unprecedented shift in polling data that completely ignores both the RCP and 538 model (the latter of which is probably the most accurate one in the business) because...why? Because Rasmussen is accurate? I hope not, because they're the least reliable poll aggregator in the business. Because one moderately accurate national tracking poll shows outlier numbers? | ||
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farvacola
United States18818 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:46 TheTenthDoc wrote: So basically you're saying we'll see a historically unprecedented shift in polling data that completely ignores both the RCP and 538 model (the latter of which is probably the most accurate one in the business) because...why? Because of the monolithic liberal bias inherent to the act of communicating information. Duh! | ||
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Signet
United States1718 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:26 xDaunt wrote: Let me make a prediction about these polls and where they'll eventually end up. Take the average of any set of polls for a battleground state (or nationally for that matter), add all of the "undecideds" to Romney's column, and then move another 2 points from Obama to Romney, and you'll have something fairly close to where I believe we'll be election day. This prediction is subject to some major gaffe or other election-rocking event occurring over the next two weeks. Now that is a bold prediction! Mine isn't so bold. Take the difference as (Obama - Romney), from some highly aggregated poll source like 538/etc. Subtract 1 from that, making Obama's lead smaller or Romney's larger. That is the final difference. Subject to same disclaimer of course. | ||
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Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:26 xDaunt wrote: Let me make a prediction about these polls and where they'll eventually end up. Take the average of any set of polls for a battleground state (or nationally for that matter), add all of the "undecideds" to Romney's column, and then move another 2 points from Obama to Romney, and you'll have something fairly close to where I believe we'll be election day. This prediction is subject to some major gaffe or other election-rocking event occurring over the next two weeks. so you would put ohio, pens, and NV all to romney despite none of the polls showing that? (those are all toss ups on RCP, i could be missreading your post) | ||
Souma
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:46 TheTenthDoc wrote: So basically you're saying we'll see a historically unprecedented shift in polling data that completely ignores both the RCP and 538 model (the latter of which is probably the most accurate one in the business) because...why? Because Rasmussen is accurate? I hope not, because they're the least reliable poll aggregator in the business. Because one moderately accurate national tracking poll shows outlier numbers? Just three weeks ago, democrats were saying that the election was in the bag for Obama because polls were showing that he had anywhere from 6-12 point leads in several key swing states. Back then, I posed the following question: Assuming Romney comes back and wins this election, does it mean that people's minds really changed or does it mean that the polls were wrong? I, of course, suggested the latter. So what am I basing my prediction on? Three things. First, undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Second, I've noticed a 2-3 point bias against republicans in the polls since the 2010 election. Third, Romney clearly has all of the momentum. Take it for what you will, but this my honest analysis. | ||
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armada[sb]
United States432 Posts
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Souma
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:04 xDaunt wrote: Just three weeks ago, democrats were saying that the election was in the bag for Obama because polls were showing that he had anywhere from 6-12 point leads in several key swing states. Back then, I posed the following question: Assuming Romney comes back and wins this election, does it mean that people's minds really changed or does it mean that the polls were wrong? I, of course, suggested the latter. So what am I basing my prediction on? Three things. First, undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Second, I've noticed a 2-3 point bias against republicans in the polls since the 2010 election. Third, Romney clearly has all of the momentum. Take it for what you will, but this my honest analysis. But people's minds really did change. Or, at least, he reassured his base during the first debate. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On October 20 2012 04:48 farvacola wrote: Because of the monolithic liberal bias inherent to the act of communicating information. Duh! http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/10/a-resurveyed-electorate-becomes-a-high-information-electorate-and-a-high-information-electorate-likes-barack-obama.html more true than you thought | ||
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sc2superfan101
3583 Posts
On October 19 2012 09:05 ZeaL. wrote: She's just fucking stupid, not fucking vile. Last time I checked "Obama Phone" isn't an official campaign strategy. The GOP was worshipping soldiers while ridiculing a veteran for his service to America. And this was from the fucking top and the base ate it up. Don't even try to compare the two. well, technically, we were ridiculing a veteran for lying about his service to America. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:01 Deathmanbob wrote: so you would put ohio, pens, and NV all to romney despite none of the polls showing that? (those are all toss ups on RCP, i could be missreading your post) Yeah, Romney would basically take almost all of the toss up states on RCP's list. Speaking of which, did anyone else notice that RCP lists New Jersey as a "lean Obama" state? Hmmmmmm....... | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:05 armada[sb] wrote: It's beyond me how Romney can win while alienating senior citizens, women, blacks and latinos. Your error is in assuming that he has alienated -- or in other words, is significantly trailing Obama in support from -- senior citizens and women. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:06 Souma wrote: But people's minds really did change. Or, at least, he reassured his base during the first debate. How does Romney have all the momentum when he clearly lost the last debate? lol | ||
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Voltaire
United States1485 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:05 armada[sb] wrote: It's beyond me how Romney can win while alienating senior citizens, women, blacks and latinos. It's amazing that people think he's actually doing those things. | ||
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farvacola
United States18818 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:06 oneofthem wrote: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/10/a-resurveyed-electorate-becomes-a-high-information-electorate-and-a-high-information-electorate-likes-barack-obama.html more true than you thought Thanks for that, this DeLong fellow sounds like my kind of guy. And I was only half joking anyhow  | ||
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sc2superfan101
3583 Posts
On October 20 2012 05:09 darthfoley wrote: How does Romney have all the momentum when he clearly lost the last debate? lol pundits are saying he lost the debate, but thus far, i haven't seen much evidence that this is so. (polls of "who won the debate" mean nothing, IMO) Romney's performance in the polls hasn't seemed to slow, he is still on a steady gain. (i know we have to wait a couple days to see the real effects, but still) I don't see how you can say someone won the debate when they failed to convince anyone of anything, but.... | ||
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