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President Obama Re-Elected - Page 587

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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here.

The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
September 25 2012 08:41 GMT
#11721
On September 25 2012 17:26 Defacer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 16:56 Souma wrote:
On September 25 2012 16:29 Defacer wrote:
On September 25 2012 16:13 Souma wrote:
On September 25 2012 15:57 Defacer wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.



Investing in sustainable transportation infrastructure is an excellent way to create more jobs, give the lower classes who can't afford a car the mobility they need to get to work and save money, accelerate gentrification and improve property value, improve local and small business, and improve the environment. It should be a no-brainer.

I'm glad I live in a city that prioritizes sustainable urban planning and development. Not that it effects me that much. I literally live a five-minute walk away from where I work.


The automobile and oil industries would not be pleased. It's hard to get anything logical done around here with so much money in politics.



Naaaaaahhhhh ... I mean, it shouldn't. People that can afford cars love them, and will continue to buy cars. Oil companies have more than enough markets to sell their products to. Every industrial process needs oil.

At worst, it will force the car industry to produce more affordable, more fuel-efficient cars. And if by some miracle oil consumption decreases to the point where there are less car use in North America, you sell your oil to every other developing country that needs it.


I think if all the urban centers were equipped with good, efficient public transit, car sales would plummet. There are a lot of low-income families who buy cars because it's the only plausible way to get to work and back without having to spend hours on the bus. If car sales plummet and the U.S. has a much lower need for oil, oil companies can say goodbye to subsidies. They can export the oil, but I'm sure they'd rather just maintain the status quo (pure guess though).


Yeah, but good, comprehensive transportation infrastructure takes decades to plan, build and develop, and it happens in phases. And it's not every city will magically become green all at once. All the more reason to start now. Oil cars and companies have thirty to forty years to evolve and adapt. By then, hopefully we'll have fuel cell technology anyways.

We use Oil to manufacture and transport every single thing around us. Oil companies have nothing to worry about.


Don't get me wrong, I agree, but what they care most about are profits. The more green we become, the more damaging it will be for them. I personally don't care if their profits shrink if it means more and better public transportation and a cleaner, safer environment.
Writer
DoubleReed
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States4130 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 11:27:22
September 25 2012 11:08 GMT
#11722
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
September 25 2012 12:31 GMT
#11723
On September 25 2012 13:46 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

[image loading]

Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.

Even if it is proven, I still think the proper course of action would be to either
a) Don't combat climate change/warming. Instead, global investment in sustainability in resources and lifestyle. This allow cultures to survive through the adverse weather.
b) Combat the symptoms. There are ways in which we can cool the Earth that requires little change in lifestyles for anybody. This can be direct cooling, or we can speed up the process of CO2 absorption into the earth.

Those points are interesting for several reasons:
a) The argument for what to do about climate is very heavily tied to sustainability. Reducing the use of oil and stone coal is a way to move from a limited resource in the inactive carbon cycle and moving it to the active carbon cycle, which is likely very unsustainable since the production of the inactive cycle carbon is tied to a million year long process. The use is and will be happening over hundred of years to thousands for the most optimistic projections! Having a 1000 times larger use of fossil fuels than production is the definition of unsustainability. Therefore a move away from oil and coal is truely a necessity regardless and increasing the alternatives to the use of those resources is fundamental in many ways (Hint: Oil will get more expensive as it gets harder to extract. Even from a longer term economic sense, alternatives to oil is a must to improve so we do not get too much of a shock from inefficient technologies when we inevitably have to make the switch!). And just to be clear: Fighting the weather is quite a stupid thing to do in almost all cases with our current knowledge of it. Any heads on fight against the weather is futile in so many ways. When we talk about fighting global climate change it is mostly in sense of reducing the future problems caused by increasing the sea- and airborne CO2, which plays exactly into the sustainability argument.
b) Give me a cheap one of those and make me a billionaire. The truth is that the CO2-absorbsion into the inactive system are almost universally scientifically dubious. The best I have heard of is releasing iron into the deep ocean to stimulate a huge production of algae. When the algae dies it will hopefully sink to the bottom of the ocean and in time get absorbed into the seabed. The others concentrate on creating carbon in a very hard to degrade form and release it to fields as a "soil improvement product". It has shown a lot of promise in increasing the yields in the field and if a significant part of it gets to be absorbed into the passive carbon storage, it is very interesting in all ways. There is also the pumping of CO2 into a deep part of the soil and praying that it gets absorbed into the passive carbon storage, but that is mpstly guessing still.
None of those technologies are even close to being viable as it stands. It might help a little, but it is still beyond speculative. Direct cooling is more or less a myth at the moment as far as I know. Painting mountains white is extremely inefficient to the point of being pointless and other solar radiation management is still completely unproven and could do far more harm than good.
Repeat before me
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 13:28:21
September 25 2012 13:27 GMT
#11724
Romney is now dubbed the 'Stench,' courtesy of Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan has gone rogue. He is unleashed, unchained, off the hook.

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him,” Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The New York Times on Sunday.

Coming from a resident of Iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, this was a powerful condemnation of the Republican nominee.

Though Ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering Romney campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. Reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus, saying things like, “If Stench calls, take a message” and “Tell Stench I’m having finger sandwiches with Peggy Noonan and will text him later.”

Even before the stench article appeared, there was a strong sign that Ryan was freeing himself from the grips of the Romney campaign. It began after his disastrous appearance on Friday before AARP in New Orleans. Ryan delivered his remarks in the style dictated by his Romney handlers: Stand behind the lectern, read the speech as written and don’t stray from the script.

Ryan brought his 78-year-old mother with him and introduced her to the audience, which is usually a sure crowd pleaser.

But when Ryan began talking about repealing “Obamacare” because he said it would harm seniors, one woman in the crowd shouted, “Lie!” Another shouted “Liar!” and the crowd booed Ryan lustily.

Who boos a guy in front of his 78-year-old mother? Other 78-year-old mothers.

That was Friday, and that was the end of Ryan following the game plan. At a certain point, all running mates on failing campaigns feel they must break free from the manacles placed on them by the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin began pursuing her own path once she learned that John McCain was having strategy sessions with his morning bowl of Farina.

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s closest advisers, has kept a tight grip on Ryan, traveling with him everywhere and making sure he hews to the directions of the Romney “brain trust” in Boston. (A brain trust, rumor has it, that refers to Ryan as “Gilligan.”)

But on Saturday, the day after he was booed, Ryan broke free. Appearing at a town hall meeting at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Ryan showed the glitz, the glamour, the razzle-dazzle that he was supposed to bring to the campaign in the first place.

He did a PowerPoint presentation for the crowd. According to the National Journal, be began thusly: “ ‘I’m kind of a PowerPoint guy, so I hope you’ll bear with me,’ Ryan told the audience as he began clicking through four slides, which showed graphs depicting U.S. debt held by the public from 1940 to present, debt per person in the United States, percentage of debt held by foreign countries and a breakdown of federal spending. He then launched into a 10-minute monologue on the federal debt.”

A word about PowerPoint. PowerPoint was released by Microsoft in 1990 as a way to euthanize cattle using a method less cruel than hitting them over the head with iron mallets. After PETA successfully argued in court that PowerPoint actually was more cruel than iron mallets, the program was adopted by corporations for slide show presentations.

Conducting a PowerPoint presentation is a lot like smoking a cigar. Only the person doing it likes it. The people around him want to hit him with a chair.

PowerPoint is usually restricted to conference rooms where the doors are locked from the outside. It is, therefore, considered unsuited for large rallies, where people have a means of escape and where the purpose is to energize rather than daze.

Ryan’s PowerPoint slides were officially labeled: “Our Unsustainable Debt (U.S. Debt Held by Public as a Share of Economy),” “Your Share of the Debt,” “Who Funds Our Reckless Spending?” and “How the Government Spends Your Money.”

The Romney campaign was furious. But Ryan reportedly said, “Let Ryan be Ryan and let the Stench be the Stench.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html


Writer
ZasZ.
Profile Joined May 2010
United States2911 Posts
September 25 2012 13:39 GMT
#11725
On September 25 2012 20:08 DoubleReed wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.


Going from 275 to a little under 400 is not "more than doubling." I agree with most of your points, but just saying.

Also, I can't tell how much of that article above me is satire and how much is actually true. The bit about powerpoint was off-topic but kind of funny.
bonifaceviii
Profile Joined May 2010
Canada2890 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 13:42:02
September 25 2012 13:40 GMT
#11726
On September 25 2012 22:27 Souma wrote:
Romney is now dubbed the 'Stench,' courtesy of Paul Ryan.
+ Show Spoiler +

Paul Ryan has gone rogue. He is unleashed, unchained, off the hook.

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him,” Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The New York Times on Sunday.

Coming from a resident of Iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, this was a powerful condemnation of the Republican nominee.

Though Ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering Romney campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. Reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus, saying things like, “If Stench calls, take a message” and “Tell Stench I’m having finger sandwiches with Peggy Noonan and will text him later.”

Even before the stench article appeared, there was a strong sign that Ryan was freeing himself from the grips of the Romney campaign. It began after his disastrous appearance on Friday before AARP in New Orleans. Ryan delivered his remarks in the style dictated by his Romney handlers: Stand behind the lectern, read the speech as written and don’t stray from the script.

Ryan brought his 78-year-old mother with him and introduced her to the audience, which is usually a sure crowd pleaser.

But when Ryan began talking about repealing “Obamacare” because he said it would harm seniors, one woman in the crowd shouted, “Lie!” Another shouted “Liar!” and the crowd booed Ryan lustily.

Who boos a guy in front of his 78-year-old mother? Other 78-year-old mothers.

That was Friday, and that was the end of Ryan following the game plan. At a certain point, all running mates on failing campaigns feel they must break free from the manacles placed on them by the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin began pursuing her own path once she learned that John McCain was having strategy sessions with his morning bowl of Farina.

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s closest advisers, has kept a tight grip on Ryan, traveling with him everywhere and making sure he hews to the directions of the Romney “brain trust” in Boston. (A brain trust, rumor has it, that refers to Ryan as “Gilligan.”)

But on Saturday, the day after he was booed, Ryan broke free. Appearing at a town hall meeting at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Ryan showed the glitz, the glamour, the razzle-dazzle that he was supposed to bring to the campaign in the first place.

He did a PowerPoint presentation for the crowd. According to the National Journal, be began thusly: “ ‘I’m kind of a PowerPoint guy, so I hope you’ll bear with me,’ Ryan told the audience as he began clicking through four slides, which showed graphs depicting U.S. debt held by the public from 1940 to present, debt per person in the United States, percentage of debt held by foreign countries and a breakdown of federal spending. He then launched into a 10-minute monologue on the federal debt.”

A word about PowerPoint. PowerPoint was released by Microsoft in 1990 as a way to euthanize cattle using a method less cruel than hitting them over the head with iron mallets. After PETA successfully argued in court that PowerPoint actually was more cruel than iron mallets, the program was adopted by corporations for slide show presentations.

Conducting a PowerPoint presentation is a lot like smoking a cigar. Only the person doing it likes it. The people around him want to hit him with a chair.

PowerPoint is usually restricted to conference rooms where the doors are locked from the outside. It is, therefore, considered unsuited for large rallies, where people have a means of escape and where the purpose is to energize rather than daze.

Ryan’s PowerPoint slides were officially labeled: “Our Unsustainable Debt (U.S. Debt Held by Public as a Share of Economy),” “Your Share of the Debt,” “Who Funds Our Reckless Spending?” and “How the Government Spends Your Money.”

The Romney campaign was furious. But Ryan reportedly said, “Let Ryan be Ryan and let the Stench be the Stench.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html



Hey now, Al Gore proved that Powerpoint is good politics sometimes.
Stay a while and listen || http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=354018
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
September 25 2012 13:44 GMT
#11727
I happen to like PowerPoint presentations. The author of that article is just a hater haha. Obviously that wasn't the point of the article though. :p
Writer
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 14:03:43
September 25 2012 14:00 GMT
#11728
On September 25 2012 22:27 Souma wrote:
Romney is now dubbed the 'Stench,' courtesy of Paul Ryan.

Show nested quote +
Paul Ryan has gone rogue. He is unleashed, unchained, off the hook.

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him,” Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The New York Times on Sunday.

Coming from a resident of Iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, this was a powerful condemnation of the Republican nominee.

Though Ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering Romney campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. Reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus, saying things like, “If Stench calls, take a message” and “Tell Stench I’m having finger sandwiches with Peggy Noonan and will text him later.”

Even before the stench article appeared, there was a strong sign that Ryan was freeing himself from the grips of the Romney campaign. It began after his disastrous appearance on Friday before AARP in New Orleans. Ryan delivered his remarks in the style dictated by his Romney handlers: Stand behind the lectern, read the speech as written and don’t stray from the script.

Ryan brought his 78-year-old mother with him and introduced her to the audience, which is usually a sure crowd pleaser.

But when Ryan began talking about repealing “Obamacare” because he said it would harm seniors, one woman in the crowd shouted, “Lie!” Another shouted “Liar!” and the crowd booed Ryan lustily.

Who boos a guy in front of his 78-year-old mother? Other 78-year-old mothers.

That was Friday, and that was the end of Ryan following the game plan. At a certain point, all running mates on failing campaigns feel they must break free from the manacles placed on them by the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin began pursuing her own path once she learned that John McCain was having strategy sessions with his morning bowl of Farina.

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s closest advisers, has kept a tight grip on Ryan, traveling with him everywhere and making sure he hews to the directions of the Romney “brain trust” in Boston. (A brain trust, rumor has it, that refers to Ryan as “Gilligan.”)

But on Saturday, the day after he was booed, Ryan broke free. Appearing at a town hall meeting at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Ryan showed the glitz, the glamour, the razzle-dazzle that he was supposed to bring to the campaign in the first place.

He did a PowerPoint presentation for the crowd. According to the National Journal, be began thusly: “ ‘I’m kind of a PowerPoint guy, so I hope you’ll bear with me,’ Ryan told the audience as he began clicking through four slides, which showed graphs depicting U.S. debt held by the public from 1940 to present, debt per person in the United States, percentage of debt held by foreign countries and a breakdown of federal spending. He then launched into a 10-minute monologue on the federal debt.”

A word about PowerPoint. PowerPoint was released by Microsoft in 1990 as a way to euthanize cattle using a method less cruel than hitting them over the head with iron mallets. After PETA successfully argued in court that PowerPoint actually was more cruel than iron mallets, the program was adopted by corporations for slide show presentations.

Conducting a PowerPoint presentation is a lot like smoking a cigar. Only the person doing it likes it. The people around him want to hit him with a chair.

PowerPoint is usually restricted to conference rooms where the doors are locked from the outside. It is, therefore, considered unsuited for large rallies, where people have a means of escape and where the purpose is to energize rather than daze.

Ryan’s PowerPoint slides were officially labeled: “Our Unsustainable Debt (U.S. Debt Held by Public as a Share of Economy),” “Your Share of the Debt,” “Who Funds Our Reckless Spending?” and “How the Government Spends Your Money.”

The Romney campaign was furious. But Ryan reportedly said, “Let Ryan be Ryan and let the Stench be the Stench.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html




This...this has to be satire right? Holy cow. I guess about 2/3 of it is?
DoubleReed
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States4130 Posts
September 25 2012 14:01 GMT
#11729
On September 25 2012 22:39 ZasZ. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 20:08 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.


Going from 275 to a little under 400 is not "more than doubling." I agree with most of your points, but just saying.

Also, I can't tell how much of that article above me is satire and how much is actually true. The bit about powerpoint was off-topic but kind of funny.


Sorry, the rate more than doubles.
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
September 25 2012 14:01 GMT
#11730
On September 25 2012 23:00 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 22:27 Souma wrote:
Romney is now dubbed the 'Stench,' courtesy of Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan has gone rogue. He is unleashed, unchained, off the hook.

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him,” Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The New York Times on Sunday.

Coming from a resident of Iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, this was a powerful condemnation of the Republican nominee.

Though Ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering Romney campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. Reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus, saying things like, “If Stench calls, take a message” and “Tell Stench I’m having finger sandwiches with Peggy Noonan and will text him later.”

Even before the stench article appeared, there was a strong sign that Ryan was freeing himself from the grips of the Romney campaign. It began after his disastrous appearance on Friday before AARP in New Orleans. Ryan delivered his remarks in the style dictated by his Romney handlers: Stand behind the lectern, read the speech as written and don’t stray from the script.

Ryan brought his 78-year-old mother with him and introduced her to the audience, which is usually a sure crowd pleaser.

But when Ryan began talking about repealing “Obamacare” because he said it would harm seniors, one woman in the crowd shouted, “Lie!” Another shouted “Liar!” and the crowd booed Ryan lustily.

Who boos a guy in front of his 78-year-old mother? Other 78-year-old mothers.

That was Friday, and that was the end of Ryan following the game plan. At a certain point, all running mates on failing campaigns feel they must break free from the manacles placed on them by the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin began pursuing her own path once she learned that John McCain was having strategy sessions with his morning bowl of Farina.

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s closest advisers, has kept a tight grip on Ryan, traveling with him everywhere and making sure he hews to the directions of the Romney “brain trust” in Boston. (A brain trust, rumor has it, that refers to Ryan as “Gilligan.”)

But on Saturday, the day after he was booed, Ryan broke free. Appearing at a town hall meeting at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Ryan showed the glitz, the glamour, the razzle-dazzle that he was supposed to bring to the campaign in the first place.

He did a PowerPoint presentation for the crowd. According to the National Journal, be began thusly: “ ‘I’m kind of a PowerPoint guy, so I hope you’ll bear with me,’ Ryan told the audience as he began clicking through four slides, which showed graphs depicting U.S. debt held by the public from 1940 to present, debt per person in the United States, percentage of debt held by foreign countries and a breakdown of federal spending. He then launched into a 10-minute monologue on the federal debt.”

A word about PowerPoint. PowerPoint was released by Microsoft in 1990 as a way to euthanize cattle using a method less cruel than hitting them over the head with iron mallets. After PETA successfully argued in court that PowerPoint actually was more cruel than iron mallets, the program was adopted by corporations for slide show presentations.

Conducting a PowerPoint presentation is a lot like smoking a cigar. Only the person doing it likes it. The people around him want to hit him with a chair.

PowerPoint is usually restricted to conference rooms where the doors are locked from the outside. It is, therefore, considered unsuited for large rallies, where people have a means of escape and where the purpose is to energize rather than daze.

Ryan’s PowerPoint slides were officially labeled: “Our Unsustainable Debt (U.S. Debt Held by Public as a Share of Economy),” “Your Share of the Debt,” “Who Funds Our Reckless Spending?” and “How the Government Spends Your Money.”

The Romney campaign was furious. But Ryan reportedly said, “Let Ryan be Ryan and let the Stench be the Stench.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html




This...this has to be satire right? Holy cow.


He throws in some dumb jokes, but I believe the rest is factual.
Writer
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
September 25 2012 16:12 GMT
#11731
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 14:28 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:15 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:09 aksfjh wrote:
Ah, I see. Our engineering ability is quite supreme already in this matter. We have the logistics, equipment, and biology to "modernize" agriculture. We have the structures and technology to protect people from the weather and climate changes. If we "choose" this route, we'll begin building a true 21st century Earth.


Sure, we'll have to. But it's stupid to piss away our opportunity to mitigate the adverse effects with which we will have to cope in the future. It's just an entirely suboptimal line of play.

I actually believe that things will turn out well in the end (in fact, I even think that the necessity of dealing with the crisis will help to promote global solidarity and the unification of mankind - this is what I call the "lemonade" scenario).

What I'm worried about is what my life will be like, because I believe that I will live at least the final part of my life in the beginnings of the crisis. I am also very worried about any possible children I might have, because I feel that their lives will take place in the worst of it and I feel sad about what world I will leave for them.

But I think mankind will make it through and craft a beautiful civilization in its wake.

Well, regardless, the stuff we've already screwed up on will supposedly peak 30 years later or something. While going back to the source of the problem and eliminating it there seems like the logical first step, I think the long term challenge of creating a 21st century civilization that can withstand nature is the best investment.


I agree with you to some extent, but we're neglecting some really obvious ways to integrate sustainability into the development, because our market doesn't get any signals from ecological costs; so even if the market really were as rational as economists love to claim it is it still wouldn't be making the right choices.

What we need to do is plan our development with an ecological end-game in mind, and there are good strategic investments for the overall plan that we are currently missing due to undervaluation of ecological concerns both economically, in terms of the lack of representation of negative externalities in the market system, and ideologically, in terms of the cultural prejudice against a respect for nature and cyclical time more generally (western culture is oriented linearly - myths of progress and the like [note that "myth" here is not used in a necessarily negative connotation]).

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.

Also, even without worries about carbon cycles, burning fossil fuels is bad for air quality. Cities with bad air pollution have much higher rates of asthma - as someone grew up in a polluted city and had asthma, I'm kind of against this. We could have nice air to breathe everywhere and it would rock!

And any reduction we could do in carbon emissions would be good, because you are lowering the magnitude of what you are inputting into the turbulence of the global climate, which can affect the outcome in entirely nonlinear ways.

Another important topic is agriculture - we are going to have a crisis there due the unsustainable nature of monoculture. Also, there's things like the fact that America throws away something like half of its food - simply no reason to do that, we could feed everybody in our country well if we would stop doing that.

There's a bunch of other shit we could be doing - if you want more detail you should check out Amory Lovins - he writes books on sustainability for a business crowd, lots of charts and things I don't totally understand but I'm sure you'll love it.

edit: how do you compete with a civilization that is doing this??: http://thomasallison.com/image/28745440682

The bolded part is something I like. Efforts to control something that we can directly affect, in clear, measurable ways. The problem with carbon targets is like you said, the outcome is nonlinear. What happens when we cut carbon emissions by 60%, but temperatures rise by 2° C anyways? We'll have saved the "future," but at no direct benefit to the present.

Also, you should note that I don't necessarily believe that markets are rational. The thing is, though, ecological costs aren't the same as economic costs. There are pitches to be made about long term investments that give you good returns AND are ecologically sound, which is something we should strive for. Renewable energy and water/energy conservation fit into this idea very, very well. However, I do not think we should strive for investments solely on their ecological benefit.

The point I'm trying to make is that we need to be smart about this. These are GIGANTIC investments that need to be made, so we need to make them in whatever will get us the best return. I enjoy the idea of a green society, but I prefer one that is better in EVERY way to what we have now.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
September 25 2012 16:16 GMT
#11732
yea they don't even care anymore.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
September 25 2012 16:20 GMT
#11733
On September 25 2012 20:08 DoubleReed wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.


I asked a simple question: how do you separate man-made warming from natural warming?

Why are you responding by trying to paint me as an someone that completely ignores science?
JinDesu
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3990 Posts
September 25 2012 16:25 GMT
#11734
On September 25 2012 23:01 Souma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 23:00 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On September 25 2012 22:27 Souma wrote:
Romney is now dubbed the 'Stench,' courtesy of Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan has gone rogue. He is unleashed, unchained, off the hook.

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him,” Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa, told The New York Times on Sunday.

Coming from a resident of Iowa, a state where people are polite even to soybeans, this was a powerful condemnation of the Republican nominee.

Though Ryan had already decided to distance himself from the floundering Romney campaign, he now feels totally uninhibited. Reportedly, he has been marching around his campaign bus, saying things like, “If Stench calls, take a message” and “Tell Stench I’m having finger sandwiches with Peggy Noonan and will text him later.”

Even before the stench article appeared, there was a strong sign that Ryan was freeing himself from the grips of the Romney campaign. It began after his disastrous appearance on Friday before AARP in New Orleans. Ryan delivered his remarks in the style dictated by his Romney handlers: Stand behind the lectern, read the speech as written and don’t stray from the script.

Ryan brought his 78-year-old mother with him and introduced her to the audience, which is usually a sure crowd pleaser.

But when Ryan began talking about repealing “Obamacare” because he said it would harm seniors, one woman in the crowd shouted, “Lie!” Another shouted “Liar!” and the crowd booed Ryan lustily.

Who boos a guy in front of his 78-year-old mother? Other 78-year-old mothers.

That was Friday, and that was the end of Ryan following the game plan. At a certain point, all running mates on failing campaigns feel they must break free from the manacles placed on them by the top of the ticket. Sarah Palin began pursuing her own path once she learned that John McCain was having strategy sessions with his morning bowl of Farina.

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s closest advisers, has kept a tight grip on Ryan, traveling with him everywhere and making sure he hews to the directions of the Romney “brain trust” in Boston. (A brain trust, rumor has it, that refers to Ryan as “Gilligan.”)

But on Saturday, the day after he was booed, Ryan broke free. Appearing at a town hall meeting at the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Ryan showed the glitz, the glamour, the razzle-dazzle that he was supposed to bring to the campaign in the first place.

He did a PowerPoint presentation for the crowd. According to the National Journal, be began thusly: “ ‘I’m kind of a PowerPoint guy, so I hope you’ll bear with me,’ Ryan told the audience as he began clicking through four slides, which showed graphs depicting U.S. debt held by the public from 1940 to present, debt per person in the United States, percentage of debt held by foreign countries and a breakdown of federal spending. He then launched into a 10-minute monologue on the federal debt.”

A word about PowerPoint. PowerPoint was released by Microsoft in 1990 as a way to euthanize cattle using a method less cruel than hitting them over the head with iron mallets. After PETA successfully argued in court that PowerPoint actually was more cruel than iron mallets, the program was adopted by corporations for slide show presentations.

Conducting a PowerPoint presentation is a lot like smoking a cigar. Only the person doing it likes it. The people around him want to hit him with a chair.

PowerPoint is usually restricted to conference rooms where the doors are locked from the outside. It is, therefore, considered unsuited for large rallies, where people have a means of escape and where the purpose is to energize rather than daze.

Ryan’s PowerPoint slides were officially labeled: “Our Unsustainable Debt (U.S. Debt Held by Public as a Share of Economy),” “Your Share of the Debt,” “Who Funds Our Reckless Spending?” and “How the Government Spends Your Money.”

The Romney campaign was furious. But Ryan reportedly said, “Let Ryan be Ryan and let the Stench be the Stench.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81618.html




This...this has to be satire right? Holy cow.


He throws in some dumb jokes, but I believe the rest is factual.


He's a young politician who is quite well loved by the GOP... makes sense if he really does see the Romney campaign as a dead end =\

I'm glad Rubio wasn't selected for Romney's campaign - I quite like that guy after seeing his debate with Stewart on the daily show.
Yargh
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
September 25 2012 16:30 GMT
#11735
On September 25 2012 21:31 radiatoren wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 13:46 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

[image loading]

Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.

Even if it is proven, I still think the proper course of action would be to either
a) Don't combat climate change/warming. Instead, global investment in sustainability in resources and lifestyle. This allow cultures to survive through the adverse weather.
b) Combat the symptoms. There are ways in which we can cool the Earth that requires little change in lifestyles for anybody. This can be direct cooling, or we can speed up the process of CO2 absorption into the earth.

Those points are interesting for several reasons:

a) The argument for what to do about climate is very heavily tied to sustainability. Reducing the use of oil and stone coal is a way to move from a limited resource in the inactive carbon cycle and moving it to the active carbon cycle, which is likely very unsustainable since the production of the inactive cycle carbon is tied to a million year long process. The use is and will be happening over hundred of years to thousands for the most optimistic projections! Having a 1000 times larger use of fossil fuels than production is the definition of unsustainability. Therefore a move away from oil and coal is truely a necessity regardless and increasing the alternatives to the use of those resources is fundamental in many ways (Hint: Oil will get more expensive as it gets harder to extract. Even from a longer term economic sense, alternatives to oil is a must to improve so we do not get too much of a shock from inefficient technologies when we inevitably have to make the switch!). And just to be clear: Fighting the weather is quite a stupid thing to do in almost all cases with our current knowledge of it. Any heads on fight against the weather is futile in so many ways. When we talk about fighting global climate change it is mostly in sense of reducing the future problems caused by increasing the sea- and airborne CO2, which plays exactly into the sustainability argument.

b) Give me a cheap one of those and make me a billionaire. The truth is that the CO2-absorbsion into the inactive system are almost universally scientifically dubious. The best I have heard of is releasing iron into the deep ocean to stimulate a huge production of algae. When the algae dies it will hopefully sink to the bottom of the ocean and in time get absorbed into the seabed. The others concentrate on creating carbon in a very hard to degrade form and release it to fields as a "soil improvement product". It has shown a lot of promise in increasing the yields in the field and if a significant part of it gets to be absorbed into the passive carbon storage, it is very interesting in all ways. There is also the pumping of CO2 into a deep part of the soil and praying that it gets absorbed into the passive carbon storage, but that is mpstly guessing still.
None of those technologies are even close to being viable as it stands. It might help a little, but it is still beyond speculative. Direct cooling is more or less a myth at the moment as far as I know. Painting mountains white is extremely inefficient to the point of being pointless and other solar radiation management is still completely unproven and could do far more harm than good.


For a:
The key is the approach. The goal should be to reduce the usage of coal and oil for long term stability in energy production and use. That provides everybody with a better standard of living, cheaper and more reliable energy. The secondary benefit should be the climate and health effects.

Fighting weather is ridiculous in some situations. Some coastal regions and islands simply aren't salvageable for the predictions we have. However, things like widespread drought and heatwaves, we do have the tools to mitigate those dangers, and even save some coastal regions.

For b:
I'd venture that "cold fusion" is more dubious.

But yea, our capabilities so far in the realm are underdeveloped. It would take a decade to roll out systems that would have a measurable effect, but the technological gains would be enormous in that case anyways. Those gains far surpass any technology to curb emissions.

And the idea isn't to "paint mountains." There are some interesting napkin proposals out there that would work under our current understanding of climate models. One example off the top of my head is to pump cold sea water into the air with hundreds of solar powered ocean sailing rovers. I'm not signing off on the idea, but if the goal is to counteract the warming, the most direct and cheapest way to do so would be to "cool" it.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 17:54:45
September 25 2012 17:35 GMT
#11736
On September 26 2012 01:12 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:28 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:15 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:09 aksfjh wrote:
Ah, I see. Our engineering ability is quite supreme already in this matter. We have the logistics, equipment, and biology to "modernize" agriculture. We have the structures and technology to protect people from the weather and climate changes. If we "choose" this route, we'll begin building a true 21st century Earth.


Sure, we'll have to. But it's stupid to piss away our opportunity to mitigate the adverse effects with which we will have to cope in the future. It's just an entirely suboptimal line of play.

I actually believe that things will turn out well in the end (in fact, I even think that the necessity of dealing with the crisis will help to promote global solidarity and the unification of mankind - this is what I call the "lemonade" scenario).

What I'm worried about is what my life will be like, because I believe that I will live at least the final part of my life in the beginnings of the crisis. I am also very worried about any possible children I might have, because I feel that their lives will take place in the worst of it and I feel sad about what world I will leave for them.

But I think mankind will make it through and craft a beautiful civilization in its wake.

Well, regardless, the stuff we've already screwed up on will supposedly peak 30 years later or something. While going back to the source of the problem and eliminating it there seems like the logical first step, I think the long term challenge of creating a 21st century civilization that can withstand nature is the best investment.


I agree with you to some extent, but we're neglecting some really obvious ways to integrate sustainability into the development, because our market doesn't get any signals from ecological costs; so even if the market really were as rational as economists love to claim it is it still wouldn't be making the right choices.

What we need to do is plan our development with an ecological end-game in mind, and there are good strategic investments for the overall plan that we are currently missing due to undervaluation of ecological concerns both economically, in terms of the lack of representation of negative externalities in the market system, and ideologically, in terms of the cultural prejudice against a respect for nature and cyclical time more generally (western culture is oriented linearly - myths of progress and the like [note that "myth" here is not used in a necessarily negative connotation]).

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.

Also, even without worries about carbon cycles, burning fossil fuels is bad for air quality. Cities with bad air pollution have much higher rates of asthma - as someone grew up in a polluted city and had asthma, I'm kind of against this. We could have nice air to breathe everywhere and it would rock!

And any reduction we could do in carbon emissions would be good, because you are lowering the magnitude of what you are inputting into the turbulence of the global climate, which can affect the outcome in entirely nonlinear ways.

Another important topic is agriculture - we are going to have a crisis there due the unsustainable nature of monoculture. Also, there's things like the fact that America throws away something like half of its food - simply no reason to do that, we could feed everybody in our country well if we would stop doing that.

There's a bunch of other shit we could be doing - if you want more detail you should check out Amory Lovins - he writes books on sustainability for a business crowd, lots of charts and things I don't totally understand but I'm sure you'll love it.

edit: how do you compete with a civilization that is doing this??: http://thomasallison.com/image/28745440682

The problem with carbon targets is like you said, the outcome is nonlinear. What happens when we cut carbon emissions by 60%, but temperatures rise by 2° C anyways?


It's a really good idea to reduce as much as possible the magnitude of what you are inputting into the chaotic system. It's highly unlikely to be nonlinear in a way that works out well for you.


The thing is, though, ecological costs aren't the same as economic costs.


Well, I disagree. It's all part of the same system. The problem with "economics" is that it isn't "eco-economics." We need to reunite the "law of the household" (economics) and the "knowledge of the household" (ecology)

(edit: It's only possible to say that economics and ecology are not the same if you don't care about your children. It's simply that ecology is the part of economics that has a longer time scale than the lives of people, so self-interested agents don't get any utility from caring about it.)


The point I'm trying to make is that we need to be smart about this. These are GIGANTIC investments that need to be made, so we need to make them in whatever will get us the best return. I enjoy the idea of a green society, but I prefer one that is better in EVERY way to what we have now.


Well sure that's nice, but there are some aspects of America's reckless consumerism and obsession with empty material wealth that will have to go. Of course, I consider this one of the ways in which that new society will be better... (@xDaunt: incidentally, this feeling is related to my pro-religious sentiments.)
shikata ga nai
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 17:40:50
September 25 2012 17:40 GMT
#11737
On September 25 2012 16:13 Souma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 15:57 Defacer wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.



Investing in sustainable transportation infrastructure is an excellent way to create more jobs, give the lower classes who can't afford a car the mobility they need to get to work and save money, accelerate gentrification and improve property value, improve local and small business, and improve the environment. It should be a no-brainer.

I'm glad I live in a city that prioritizes sustainable urban planning and development. Not that it effects me that much. I literally live a five-minute walk away from where I work.


The automobile and oil industries would not be pleased. It's hard to get anything logical done around here with so much money in politics.


Yeah well, now you see why it's hard for our civilization to act in its own best interest. The pursuit of self-interest by all agents does not produce the optimal result for totality...
shikata ga nai
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 17:50:10
September 25 2012 17:49 GMT
#11738
On September 26 2012 01:12 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:28 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:15 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:09 aksfjh wrote:
Ah, I see. Our engineering ability is quite supreme already in this matter. We have the logistics, equipment, and biology to "modernize" agriculture. We have the structures and technology to protect people from the weather and climate changes. If we "choose" this route, we'll begin building a true 21st century Earth.


Sure, we'll have to. But it's stupid to piss away our opportunity to mitigate the adverse effects with which we will have to cope in the future. It's just an entirely suboptimal line of play.

I actually believe that things will turn out well in the end (in fact, I even think that the necessity of dealing with the crisis will help to promote global solidarity and the unification of mankind - this is what I call the "lemonade" scenario).

What I'm worried about is what my life will be like, because I believe that I will live at least the final part of my life in the beginnings of the crisis. I am also very worried about any possible children I might have, because I feel that their lives will take place in the worst of it and I feel sad about what world I will leave for them.

But I think mankind will make it through and craft a beautiful civilization in its wake.

Well, regardless, the stuff we've already screwed up on will supposedly peak 30 years later or something. While going back to the source of the problem and eliminating it there seems like the logical first step, I think the long term challenge of creating a 21st century civilization that can withstand nature is the best investment.


I agree with you to some extent, but we're neglecting some really obvious ways to integrate sustainability into the development, because our market doesn't get any signals from ecological costs; so even if the market really were as rational as economists love to claim it is it still wouldn't be making the right choices.

What we need to do is plan our development with an ecological end-game in mind, and there are good strategic investments for the overall plan that we are currently missing due to undervaluation of ecological concerns both economically, in terms of the lack of representation of negative externalities in the market system, and ideologically, in terms of the cultural prejudice against a respect for nature and cyclical time more generally (western culture is oriented linearly - myths of progress and the like [note that "myth" here is not used in a necessarily negative connotation]).

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.

Also, even without worries about carbon cycles, burning fossil fuels is bad for air quality. Cities with bad air pollution have much higher rates of asthma - as someone grew up in a polluted city and had asthma, I'm kind of against this. We could have nice air to breathe everywhere and it would rock!

And any reduction we could do in carbon emissions would be good, because you are lowering the magnitude of what you are inputting into the turbulence of the global climate, which can affect the outcome in entirely nonlinear ways.

Another important topic is agriculture - we are going to have a crisis there due the unsustainable nature of monoculture. Also, there's things like the fact that America throws away something like half of its food - simply no reason to do that, we could feed everybody in our country well if we would stop doing that.

There's a bunch of other shit we could be doing - if you want more detail you should check out Amory Lovins - he writes books on sustainability for a business crowd, lots of charts and things I don't totally understand but I'm sure you'll love it.

edit: how do you compete with a civilization that is doing this??: http://thomasallison.com/image/28745440682

The problem with carbon targets is like you said, the outcome is nonlinear. What happens when we cut carbon emissions by 60%, but temperatures rise by 2° C anyways? We'll have saved the "future," but at no direct benefit to the present.


What you are saying is not entirely wrong, but is at best an argument to do environmentalism at 90% instead of 100%, whereas you seem to take it as a reason not to do environmentalism at all, which is silly.

I would be happy if there was some amount of science involved in our decision making, which currently there isn't. Does that seem unreasonable?
shikata ga nai
DoubleReed
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States4130 Posts
September 25 2012 17:57 GMT
#11739
On September 26 2012 01:20 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 20:08 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.


I asked a simple question: how do you separate man-made warming from natural warming?

Why are you responding by trying to paint me as an someone that completely ignores science?


Evidently I misunderstand your question. You want a graph of natural global warming and a graph of manmade global warming or something? Because that would obviously be purely speculative, and we want to use data.

I took your question more as biased skepticism. I still don't quite know what you want.
Holytornados
Profile Joined November 2011
United States1022 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-09-25 18:03:30
September 25 2012 18:01 GMT
#11740
On September 26 2012 01:20 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 25 2012 20:08 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 13:26 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 12:29 DoubleReed wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:45 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 25 2012 11:06 DoubleReed wrote:
Except that climate scientists, including former climate change skeptics, are realizing that the problem is might actually be worse than predicted before. Richard Muller, funded by the Koch Brothers and climate change skeptic, recently (this July) used much more accurate data and readings to discover that yes, global warming is happening AND that is almost entirely due to human causes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

Climate change is real. It is manmade. And it is serious.


Can you explain to me how they come to the conclusion that its mostly man-made? Just skimming through they seem to use CO2 as a proxy for mankind's contribution. Now, my understanding is that CO2 levels change naturally as well so I'm confused as to how they separated the natural change from the man-made change.


From what I've seen the CO2 trends dramatically shift once industrialization starts and then accelerate rapidly as we become more industrialized. I think there might be more to it than just that though.


I get that. But then I see graphs like this:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Now, I don't doubt at all that industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere contributes to global warming. But it seems that nature plays a role as well. Until someone can convince me that they can separate the two accurately, I find it difficult to support aggressive measures to fight global warming.


Er... what? That graph proves my point. We were in a state of global warming when industrialization happened. But we've more than doubled the natural effect in a shorter amount of time than nature would have.

And I just posted a climate change skeptic who explains how he was convinced that they are incredibly separate. Here it is again: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_moc.semityn.www

[image loading]
http://berkeleyearth.org/images/annual-comparison-small.png

Look, I understand that the idea of manmade climate change is scary. I understand that people don't like the economic implications of it. But the economic implications of climate change if we do nothing to stop it could be catastrophic. It's incredibly myopic to think "yea, but do we actually want to do anything about it?"

It's also a dangerous precedent you're setting for your opponent's claims. It sounds to me like there is no way to convince you, even when all the evidence is against you. Exactly what do climate scientists need to show you before you are spurred to action? Because there is a scientific consensus on this. The scientific community has been overwhelmingly convinced of how serious this is. But you, like so many others, have convinced themselves to be more skeptical than scientists and choose not to do anything about it. This is a seriously dangerous precedent.


I asked a simple question: how do you separate man-made warming from natural warming?

Why are you responding by trying to paint me as an someone that completely ignores science?


But he told you how to separate the two. He showed where the rate would be then said how we have more than doubled said rate. That is the manmade difference.

On September 26 2012 02:49 sam!zdat wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2012 01:12 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:44 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:28 aksfjh wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:15 sam!zdat wrote:
On September 25 2012 14:09 aksfjh wrote:
Ah, I see. Our engineering ability is quite supreme already in this matter. We have the logistics, equipment, and biology to "modernize" agriculture. We have the structures and technology to protect people from the weather and climate changes. If we "choose" this route, we'll begin building a true 21st century Earth.


Sure, we'll have to. But it's stupid to piss away our opportunity to mitigate the adverse effects with which we will have to cope in the future. It's just an entirely suboptimal line of play.

I actually believe that things will turn out well in the end (in fact, I even think that the necessity of dealing with the crisis will help to promote global solidarity and the unification of mankind - this is what I call the "lemonade" scenario).

What I'm worried about is what my life will be like, because I believe that I will live at least the final part of my life in the beginnings of the crisis. I am also very worried about any possible children I might have, because I feel that their lives will take place in the worst of it and I feel sad about what world I will leave for them.

But I think mankind will make it through and craft a beautiful civilization in its wake.

Well, regardless, the stuff we've already screwed up on will supposedly peak 30 years later or something. While going back to the source of the problem and eliminating it there seems like the logical first step, I think the long term challenge of creating a 21st century civilization that can withstand nature is the best investment.


I agree with you to some extent, but we're neglecting some really obvious ways to integrate sustainability into the development, because our market doesn't get any signals from ecological costs; so even if the market really were as rational as economists love to claim it is it still wouldn't be making the right choices.

What we need to do is plan our development with an ecological end-game in mind, and there are good strategic investments for the overall plan that we are currently missing due to undervaluation of ecological concerns both economically, in terms of the lack of representation of negative externalities in the market system, and ideologically, in terms of the cultural prejudice against a respect for nature and cyclical time more generally (western culture is oriented linearly - myths of progress and the like [note that "myth" here is not used in a necessarily negative connotation]).

For example, we should not be building any more cities around automobiles, and we should be turning the cities that are into modern cities with efficient and well-maintained public transit. Anyway, who wants to sit around in traffic all the time? It blows. And it [public transit] is FAR, FAR CHEAPER.

Also, even without worries about carbon cycles, burning fossil fuels is bad for air quality. Cities with bad air pollution have much higher rates of asthma - as someone grew up in a polluted city and had asthma, I'm kind of against this. We could have nice air to breathe everywhere and it would rock!

And any reduction we could do in carbon emissions would be good, because you are lowering the magnitude of what you are inputting into the turbulence of the global climate, which can affect the outcome in entirely nonlinear ways.

Another important topic is agriculture - we are going to have a crisis there due the unsustainable nature of monoculture. Also, there's things like the fact that America throws away something like half of its food - simply no reason to do that, we could feed everybody in our country well if we would stop doing that.

There's a bunch of other shit we could be doing - if you want more detail you should check out Amory Lovins - he writes books on sustainability for a business crowd, lots of charts and things I don't totally understand but I'm sure you'll love it.

edit: how do you compete with a civilization that is doing this??: http://thomasallison.com/image/28745440682

The problem with carbon targets is like you said, the outcome is nonlinear. What happens when we cut carbon emissions by 60%, but temperatures rise by 2° C anyways? We'll have saved the "future," but at no direct benefit to the present.


What you are saying is not entirely wrong, but is at best an argument to do environmentalism at 90% instead of 100%, whereas you seem to take it as a reason not to do environmentalism at all, which is silly.

I would be happy if there was some amount of science involved in our decision making, which currently there isn't. Does that seem unreasonable?


I would have to agree. Why not have scientific advisers on policy? As an aspiring scientist I think that only seems logical to get a fresh perspective of a research specialist.
CLG/Liquid ~~ youtube.com/reddedgaming
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