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On January 22 2012 11:51 xDaunt wrote:
Obama is going to regret blocking the keystone pipeline. That issue is gonna be hung around his neck throughout the campaign. Hell, you know it's bad when the Washington Post says it was a bad move.
I highly doubt that the Pipeline deal is actually going to fail so much as Obama said no to maintain his barginning chip. If Obama goes thru with the Pipeline deal now than he has nothing to offer republicans for them to extend payroll tax cut thru the election. Now he has something to put on the table which means something that he really doenst wanna give up doenst have to go there.
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Canada11370 Posts
On January 22 2012 11:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Newt is Pro Canada/Harper!
Yeah, but whether Harper will prefer Newt over Obama will depend on how Canadians react to people like Newt. No one could be happier than Harper when Obama replaced Bush as Harper is very interested in strengthening ties with America. That's really hard to do when anti-Americanism is on the rise due to a president unpopular amongst Canadians.
As for Keystone, I don't really care that Newt is for it. I wish the rejection meant we would actually refine the stuff instead of what is most likely- wait until the next election or sell it to Asia. We have such a colonist economy with so little manufacturing.
But if Newt's not going to add tariffs to Canada, we'll be pleased. All that 'buy America' rhetoric makes us nervous over what will happen to Canada-US trade.
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Now, Mr. Gingrich has additional momentum after his clear win in South Carolina tonight.
The betting market Intrade, making inferences in the absence of polling, now gives Mr. Romney about a 60 percent chance of winning Florida and Mr. Gingrich a 40 percent chance.
That looks roughly correct to me. My guess is that if Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich are roughly tied in the Florida polls once we get fresh data, Mr. Romney would be the slight favorite to win the state because of his advantages in advertising dollars and early voting. And the bounce from winning a primary can sometimes fade over a matter of days.
However, given his big win tonight, it is also possible that Mr. Gingrich will lead Mr. Romney once new polls are released there. If he starts out with a cushion of 3 to 5 points over Mr. Romney, for instance, his position there will look more robust.
Republican Primary Projections
Updated Jan. 21, 2012 at 11:47 AM ET
Florida Vote
Projection Chance
of Win
Mitt Romney 46.1% 93%
Newt Gingrich 24.9 6
Rick Santorum 14.8 1
Source
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In order to win the Republican nomination, a candidate has to acquire at least 1144 delegates. For some perspective, the 3 states that have held their primaries thus far have had a total of 58. There is still a long way to go, and you shouldn't count Ron Paul out just yet.
The two states with the highest number of delegates are Texas and California (~330ish delegates combined). Ron Paul is polling over 50% in each of those states, and if he can maintain those numbers, he's guaranteed about 250 delegates from that alone.
Also, Ron Paul is currently the only person with a campaign organization in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has a significant number of delegates and it's a winner takes all state, as well.
The thing about Paul's campaign right now is this: He's playing it very strategically. We'll see if it pays off or not.
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On January 22 2012 12:04 ryanAnger wrote:
In order to win the Republican nomination, a candidate has to acquire at least 1144 delegates. For some perspective, the 3 states that have held their primaries thus far have had a total of 58. There is still a long way to go, and you shouldn't count Ron Paul out just yet.
The two states with the highest number of delegates are Texas and California (~330ish delegates combined). Ron Paul is polling over 50% in each of those states, and if he can maintain those numbers, he's guaranteed about 250 delegates from that alone.
Also, Ron Paul is currently the only person with a campaign organization in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has a significant number of delegates and it's a winner takes all state, as well.
The thing about Paul's campaign right now is this: He's playing it very strategically. We'll see if it pays off or not.
I hope that it will play out the way that he has it planned. It is just that if he falls behind now, people might stop thinking of him as a viable candidate. :\
Also in Virginia he is only against Romney.
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Anyone have a link to see who's got how many delegates right now?
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60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state.
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On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state.
With the exception of Utah of course. 
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Newt Gingrich wiped the floor with Romney in South Carolina. Romney only won two counties, and just barely.
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On January 22 2012 12:10 Corvette wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. With the exception of Utah of course.
Utah primary is in June... but a lot of states for February/March are in liberal areas so religion shouldn't matter too much there.
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Well I hope Romney gets back some of that momentum.
On a side note I wonder who in their right mind would vote for Newt Gingrich. A guy who had a number of ethics violations leveled against him in Congress a guy who derided Bill Clinton's presidency as "lacking in moral authority" while cheating on his ex-wife.
Seriously SC Republicans? The GOP can do better than this.
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One thing to think about is.. once (if) Santorum drops out, a large majority of his votes will probably go to Gingrich. Romney has issues keeping 40%+ of the vote, because there is a much larger "not Romney" vote than a Romney vote. When it is between two people, the "not Romney" will probably start to help Gingrich, assuming he doesn't implode due to his volatility.
Spreads will probably even out in time, but once it gets down to the three, it will probably sit around in the 30-40, 40-50, 10-20 range. I don't see Paul going above 20% in most cases, making the 80% split between Gingrich and Romney. That hurts Romney, because the anti-Romney vote won't be split between 2-4 candidates anymore.
Romney stays consistent, it's up to Gingrich to not hurt himself (again).
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I take back what I said about Gingrich being a complete scumbag for saying nothing positive. They're replaying the part where he says good things about all 4, so I guess I missed that the first time around.
But I'm still in the Romney camp ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/R1CH/Happy2.gif)
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On January 22 2012 12:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:10 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. With the exception of Utah of course. Utah primary is in June... but a lot of states for February/March are in liberal areas so religion shouldn't matter too much there.
Well yeah, but Utah is kind of the 'home' for Mormons.
So if religion remains a large factor then this would be the one for Romney.
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On January 22 2012 12:22 Corvette wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On January 22 2012 12:10 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. With the exception of Utah of course. Utah primary is in June... but a lot of states for February/March are in liberal areas so religion shouldn't matter too much there. Well yeah, but Utah is kind of the 'home' for Mormons. So if religion remains a large factor then this would be the one for Romney.
No, I'm saying that Utah is a bit too late to swing Romney back, primary might already be over by then.
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On January 22 2012 12:24 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:22 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On January 22 2012 12:10 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. With the exception of Utah of course. Utah primary is in June... but a lot of states for February/March are in liberal areas so religion shouldn't matter too much there. Well yeah, but Utah is kind of the 'home' for Mormons. So if religion remains a large factor then this would be the one for Romney. No, I'm saying that Utah is a bit too late to swing Romney back, primary might already be over by then.
I know. That's why I said "one".
Also, in my original statement I was being a little facetious.
I guess its just hard to illustrate tone online, but I am sure that we are both on the same side of the argument here.
Romney is not looking as good as he was a week ago.
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On January 22 2012 12:29 Corvette wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:24 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On January 22 2012 12:22 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On January 22 2012 12:10 Corvette wrote:On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. With the exception of Utah of course. Utah primary is in June... but a lot of states for February/March are in liberal areas so religion shouldn't matter too much there. Well yeah, but Utah is kind of the 'home' for Mormons. So if religion remains a large factor then this would be the one for Romney. No, I'm saying that Utah is a bit too late to swing Romney back, primary might already be over by then. I know. That's why I said "one". Also, in my original statement I was being a little facetious. I guess its just hard to illustrate tone online, but I am sure that we are both on the same side of the argument here. Romney is not looking as good as he was a week ago.
Now THAT's a post I can 100% agree with 
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On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state.
Most of those people must be hypocrites for booing the Golden Rule in Foreign policy.
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On January 22 2012 12:52 BobTheBuilder1377 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 12:08 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
60% of SC voters said Religion matters, very bad sign for Romney if it carries across state by state. Most of those people must be hypocrites for booing the Golden Rule in Foreign policy.
It's just the hardcore zealots that make the other (moderate) Christians look bad, pay them no heed.
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EPT
