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Crisis in Japan - Page 138

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Thread is about the various issues surrounding Japan in the aftermath of the recent earthquake. Don't bring the shit side of the internet to the thread, and post with the realization that this thread is very important, and very real, to your fellow members.

Do not post speculative and unconfirmed news you saw on TV or anywhere else. Generally the more dramatic it sounds the less likely it's true.
dump
Profile Joined August 2010
Japan514 Posts
March 15 2011 10:57 GMT
#2741
A little bit off-topic, but reading the twitter feed on NHK is really disappointing.

We've always been notoriously xenophobic, but right now it's in full swing with people seeming to believe that the Japanese are the only people in Asia capable of compassion.

The exceptionalism needs to stop.
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
March 15 2011 10:58 GMT
#2742
On March 15 2011 19:44 Hinanawi wrote:
There is an awful lot of extremely irresponsible reporting going on about this whole catastrophe from the media.

The whole "20 times higher than normal radiation" is just one example. They just throw that number out without putting in context what that actually means to human exposed to it (see: nothing).


People don't understand context at all even if you explain it to them because they've already got the idea that radiation is going to kill people even in really insignificant doses (never mind fossil fuels spit a shit load of radiation) hard wired into their brain. Even if you explain that, while very serious, it isn't dire nor is it anything remotely like Chernobyl to people, they'll just respond with "I STILL DON'T LIKE IT!".

In Australia, a survey was conducted (I think the Australian Greens did this?) on asylum seekers. When people were told how few asylum seekers there were in relation to the number of immigrants arriving through plane (aka not boatpeople aka wealthy people not on Centrelink), the majority trenched their anti-asylum seeker stance even harder. People believe what they want to believe, its very hard to change someone's beliefs.
moochu
Profile Joined August 2009
Australia374 Posts
March 15 2011 10:59 GMT
#2743
On March 15 2011 19:54 Dimagus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:47 moochu wrote:
and for reference how many times higher than usual does it have to be before it starts getting dangerous?


Making me do math cause the news sources won't.. GDI..

(According to the article 0.05 uSv/hr is around normal)

20,000,000 times normal and you will be experiencing 1 Sv/hr, which means vomiting and you should immediately seek medical attention.

I will arbitrarily say if it isn't over 100,000 times normal, you're probably okay.


Thanks for that!
Marradron
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Netherlands1586 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-15 11:02:04
March 15 2011 11:00 GMT
#2744
On March 15 2011 19:53 Maggeus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:49 VabuDeltaKaiser wrote:
Lets get to worst case: Meltdown reaches a critical mass, critical temperature, you can have an actual nuclear bomb like explosion. The chances are low, still this is the worst case. Mostly because it yet didnt happen, it is unlikely.
resul: you know hiroshima


It's not unlikely : a nuclear reactor is not, and will never be the same as a nuclear bomb. It's absolutely impossible, mainly because the % of U235 is a lot less in a civil plant than in a nuclear bomb (Civil : max 5 to 10%, and really the MAX possible, and a nuclear bomb : 99%.)

It's physically impossible.

So please stop sprouting nonsense when you don't know a thing in that field. This is not helping.


Have to agree with this. There was a UCberkeley lecture on nukes posted a lot of pages ago explaining why it cant blow up like a nuke. What can however happen is dat the molten pool gets in touch with water. If the pool is warm enough it can disect water into oxigan and hydrogyn. If a spark of fires occurs too close it can cause an explosion. In worst case this explosion might get the pool airborn.

Found the video. The part of the meltdown is near the end of the video

NeoLearner
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Belgium1847 Posts
March 15 2011 11:00 GMT
#2745
Project I'm working on is for Japanese customers and I have quite some Japanese colleagues also. Haven't heard from any of them yet. I'm so clueless on how to react next time there's a meeting.

On March 15 2011 19:44 Hinanawi wrote:
There is an awful lot of extremely irresponsible reporting going on about this whole catastrophe from the media.

Agreed. It's always like that when the topic of nuclear power is brought up. I wonder if it is because of ignorance or plain "panic-sells" evilness.

On March 15 2011 19:42 fanta[Rn] wrote:
while it is 100 times higher than usual it's still LOW and not a human risk.

True. According to wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sievert
5 microSievert is about 50.000 times less than the threshold to present symptoms. Those are the kind of numbers the media should be throwing out.

Bankai - Correlation does not imply causation
Manifesto7
Profile Blog Joined November 2002
Osaka27157 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-15 11:10:21
March 15 2011 11:01 GMT
#2746
On March 15 2011 19:49 VabuDeltaKaiser wrote:
Lets get to worst case: Meltdown reaches a critical mass, critical temperature, you can have an actual nuclear bomb like explosion. The chances are low, still this is the worst case. Mostly because it yet didnt happen, it is unlikely.
resul: you know hiroshima


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12732015

Could there be a nuclear explosion?

No. A nuclear bomb and a nuclear reactor are different things.

Shut the fuck up. Stop fear mongering.
ModeratorGodfather
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
March 15 2011 11:02 GMT
#2747
On March 15 2011 19:18 fanta[Rn] wrote:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/00000000091.html

List of M5+ quakes updated in realtime, maybe this would be good for the opening post. there are many aftershocks

I've heard a scientist saying that he was more worried about the sysmic situation rather than the nuclear situation. I understand why seeing this, damn how many aftershocks ?
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Hinanawi
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2250 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-15 11:04:14
March 15 2011 11:03 GMT
#2748
On March 15 2011 19:58 Womwomwom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:44 Hinanawi wrote:
There is an awful lot of extremely irresponsible reporting going on about this whole catastrophe from the media.

The whole "20 times higher than normal radiation" is just one example. They just throw that number out without putting in context what that actually means to human exposed to it (see: nothing).


People don't understand context at all even if you explain it to them because they've already got the idea that radiation is going to kill people even in really insignificant doses (never mind fossil fuels spit a shit load of radiation) hard wired into their brain. Even if you explain that, while very serious, it isn't dire nor is it anything remotely like Chernobyl to people, they'll just respond with "I STILL DON'T LIKE IT!".

In Australia, a survey was conducted (I think the Australian Greens did this?) on asylum seekers. When people were told how few asylum seekers there were in relation to the number of immigrants arriving through plane (aka not boatpeople aka wealthy people not on Centrelink), the majority trenched their anti-asylum seeker stance even harder. People believe what they want to believe, its very hard to change someone's beliefs.


Well, in that case wouldn't it be more an issue of people having problems with immigrants to they think will take up government money, and not having problems with immigrants who they don't think will take up government money? Not that I know anything about Australia, I don't.

Ugh, 4 AM. I'm out. I hope to see the situation in Japan has gotten better when I wake up.
Favorite progamers (in order): Flash, Stork, Violet, Sea. ||| Get better soon, Violet!
Grettin
Profile Joined April 2010
42381 Posts
March 15 2011 11:03 GMT
#2749
If someone is interested, heres a Tokyos geiger-counter stream:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo
"If I had force-fields in Brood War, I'd never lose." -Bisu
Dimagus
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1004 Posts
March 15 2011 11:05 GMT
#2750
On March 15 2011 20:03 Grettin wrote:
If someone is interested, heres a Tokyos geiger-counter stream:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo


CPM? You're going to make heads explode in this thread now.
dump
Profile Joined August 2010
Japan514 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-15 11:07:10
March 15 2011 11:06 GMT
#2751
On March 15 2011 20:03 Grettin wrote:
If someone is interested, heres a Tokyos geiger-counter stream:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo


That guy had it indoors for a while, says he moved it by the window now. But the window's not open, so I'm not sure how useful it is. Maybe someone with physics knowledge can explain.
Grettin
Profile Joined April 2010
42381 Posts
March 15 2011 11:08 GMT
#2752
On March 15 2011 20:05 Dimagus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 20:03 Grettin wrote:
If someone is interested, heres a Tokyos geiger-counter stream:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo


CPM? You're going to make heads explode in this thread now.


That was my plan all along.

But all serious, i have no idea how to even look at the counter. All i read is that about 12 hours ago that meter showed 13cpm.

"With radiation counting systems, radioactive transformation events can be measured in units of "disintegrations per minute" (dpm) and, because instruments are not 100% efficient, "counts per minute" (cpm). Background radiation levels are typically less than 10 μR per hour, but due to differences in detector size and efficiency, the cpm reading on fixed monitors and various handheld survey meters will vary considerably."

"If I had force-fields in Brood War, I'd never lose." -Bisu
Fenrax
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States5018 Posts
March 15 2011 11:09 GMT
#2753
On March 15 2011 20:01 Manifesto7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:49 VabuDeltaKaiser wrote:
Lets get to worst case: Meltdown reaches a critical mass, critical temperature, you can have an actual nuclear bomb like explosion. The chances are low, still this is the worst case. Mostly because it yet didnt happen, it is unlikely.
resul: you know hiroshima


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12732015

Could there be a nuclear explosion?

No. A nuclear bomb and a nuclear reactor are different things.

Shut the fuck up. Stop fear mongering.


But they win. Germany powers down seven Nuclear plants and very probably withdraws from Nuclear Power technology very soon completely.

Important regional elections are soon and arguments (like ... that there are no Earthquakes in Germany) won't win these elections.
Maggeus
Profile Joined April 2010
France277 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-15 11:10:04
March 15 2011 11:09 GMT
#2754
CPM = counts per minute.
CPM can't be converted to Curie if you don't know what type of radiation it is. Meaning it's totally meaningless to use it when you don't know what source of radioactivity it is.

Meaning it's not interesting at all, apart from the fact you could see some variations, but you wouldn't know what that mean. :/
BluzMan
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
Russian Federation4235 Posts
March 15 2011 11:09 GMT
#2755
On March 15 2011 19:49 VabuDeltaKaiser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 18:01 zalz wrote:
A meltdown is literally what the word implies, a reactor melts down. After that it's remains fall into a containment unit and it proceeds to be mostly harmless. If it could go through the containment unit or like Tsjernobyl has no containment unit then shit could hit the fence. Even then the make-up of the facility can determine wether the result is harmless, hazardous or explosive.

The Japanese facility has a containment unit. The only purpose this thing has it to contain the reactor after a meltdown, if it could not do this it would be a ridiculous thing to have, it has been designed with only 1 purpose in mind so ofcourse it will do that.


There is no risk of explosions, there will not be a deadly radiation cloud that proceeds to turn half the people into ghouls and the other half into super-mutants.

This facility cannot explode in the same way your bike can't explode if you try to put the chain back on, it just doesn't. Worst case scenario is radiation polution in about 1.5 miles, that is as bad as it is going to get.

Do you know what you are talking about? Do you know what worst case means? Your meltdown exaggeration is not very exact, i also pass on the ghuls part.

Lets start with something like a best case scenario. After a most harmless meltdown, meaning the process stays stable at the very moment, the problems are on a stall. You have extreme engery heavy heat and pressure producing nuclear material, you cannot simply take and get rid off. You cannot even reach it. And thats nearly the best case!
(considering situation atm, aka inner cooling fail, pressure release, hydrogene explosion, sea water outer shell cooling, which is totally giving up on the power plant and already out of textbook procedure, aka improvising)
result: a small amount of nuclear fallout, by small leaks and pressure handling processes. about a year of spreading material, non leathal dosis

Lets get a bit darker, the meltdown melts the nuclear material into a slurry blop, this can get so hot in can melt through the containment unit. (the unit of course also chernobyl had, so you are wrong again, stop guessing, thx) so following gravity the nuclear super hot blob leaves into the earth, maybe producing gases, nuclear fallout can get into air, spread by wind. <>still way way less dangerous than chernobyl where a big explosion torpedoed masses of high risk nuclear material very high into the atmosphere.<>
result: high dosis spreading the first days, there need to be containment handling covering the processing material. 20-30 km around the area should be evacuated immidiately. 2km radius is wasteland for decades.

Lets get to worst case: Meltdown reaches a critical mass, critical temperature, you can have an actual nuclear bomb like explosion. The chances are low, still this is the worst case. Mostly because it yet didnt happen, it is unlikely.
resul: you know hiroshima

imagine this is guessing, realistic but still guessing to get an idea. you cannot be sure, because you cannot test out of control accidents very well. thats the reason why japan energy corp cannot tell much. they just cannot follow a rule. and japan is ruled by obeying rules, following authorities.

Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 18:18 Arokh wrote:
On March 15 2011 18:01 zalz wrote:
A meltdown is literally what the word implies, a reactor melts down. After that it's remains fall into a containment unit and it proceeds to be mostly harmless. If it could go through the containment unit or like Tsjernobyl has no containment unit then shit could hit the fence. Even then the make-up of the facility can determine wether the result is harmless, hazardous or explosive.

The Japanese facility has a containment unit. The only purpose this thing has it to contain the reactor after a meltdown, if it could not do this it would be a ridiculous thing to have, it has been designed with only 1 purpose in mind so ofcourse it will do that.


There is no risk of explosions, there will not be a deadly radiation cloud that proceeds to turn half the people into ghouls and the other half into super-mutants.

This facility cannot explode in the same way your bike can't explode if you try to put the chain back on, it just doesn't. Worst case scenario is radiation polution in about 1.5 miles, that is as bad as it is going to get.


zalz, you seem to know about this stuff. I have a followup question about the meltdown. If a reactor can not be cooled sufficiently and the meltdwon starts, isn't there a possibility, that the cooling water (at the moment sea-water) will react with the super hot control-rods and this will produce hydrogen (ionide + h2o = h2 ionideoxide)? This hydrogen with the combination of oxygen could then explode inside the containment and possibly damage the whole thing, making it possible for certain (little bigger) amounts of radiation to escape? Is the containmenet strong enough to resist an inside hydrogen explosion?

Thanks in advance for correcting and clearing things up!

That is exactly what happened in 3 reactors already, uncooled reactors produced hydrogene, that was released to the outer shell to reduce pressure and blasted away the outer building. How much of a hydrogene explosion the inner containment is capable? good question, i hope this will not be tested. The japan authorities had a reason to release the gas to explode outside the containment.


You have no idea what you're saying. Nuclear explosion cannot occur on a nuclear plant under any circumstances. Nuclear material can only cause an explosion when it's contained in an extremely tight space for a sufficient amount of time, so that it reacts faster than it evaporates, this is simply impossible without extreme external pressure only achievable with regulated simultaneous explosions and a timed neutron burst. You could tunnel through a brick wall with roughly the same probability as that of those conditions reproduced in a nuclear plant (hint: never). Stop talking about stuff you don't understand in a way that produces more hysteria.
You want 20 good men, but you need a bad pussy.
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
March 15 2011 11:11 GMT
#2756
On March 15 2011 20:03 Hinanawi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:58 Womwomwom wrote:
On March 15 2011 19:44 Hinanawi wrote:
There is an awful lot of extremely irresponsible reporting going on about this whole catastrophe from the media.

The whole "20 times higher than normal radiation" is just one example. They just throw that number out without putting in context what that actually means to human exposed to it (see: nothing).


People don't understand context at all even if you explain it to them because they've already got the idea that radiation is going to kill people even in really insignificant doses (never mind fossil fuels spit a shit load of radiation) hard wired into their brain. Even if you explain that, while very serious, it isn't dire nor is it anything remotely like Chernobyl to people, they'll just respond with "I STILL DON'T LIKE IT!".

In Australia, a survey was conducted (I think the Australian Greens did this?) on asylum seekers. When people were told how few asylum seekers there were in relation to the number of immigrants arriving through plane (aka not boatpeople aka wealthy people not on Centrelink), the majority trenched their anti-asylum seeker stance even harder. People believe what they want to believe, its very hard to change someone's beliefs.


Well, in that case wouldn't it be more an issue of people having problems with immigrants to they think will take up government money, and not having problems with immigrants who they don't think will take up government money? Not that I know anything about Australia, I don't.

Ugh, 4 AM. I'm out. I hope to see the situation in Japan has gotten better when I wake up.


Off topic:
+ Show Spoiler +
Nope, the people who did the survey generally didn't care about "legal" immigrants. Even when presented the facts that the asylum seeker problem is a non-issue because so damn few arrive in Australia, they generally responded as if it was a far more serious issue than before.

In Australia, we for whatever reason hate people who come "illegally" by boats. It was, strangely, a main election topic with the Liberal party running the famous "Stop the Boats" slogan everywhere and proposing the boatphone and the Labor party running a similar campaign only a bit more euphemistic.
dump
Profile Joined August 2010
Japan514 Posts
March 15 2011 11:11 GMT
#2757
I hate to get political here, but if you look back at some of the older posts, it's clear that there's a reason there's so much fear mongering coming from Germany: there's a lot of lobbying going back and forth.

On issues where we have no credible and understandable scientific information, we're probably going to have to resort to the simple assumption that the doomsday scenarios are likely politicized.
Quarz
Profile Joined November 2010
448 Posts
March 15 2011 11:15 GMT
#2758
On March 15 2011 19:43 Manifesto7 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:42 fanta[Rn] wrote:
while it is 100 times higher than usual it's still LOW and not a human risk.


Thank you. Again, context is important people.


Because you dont die immediately doesn't mean that is not dangerous. Those people who work there are in a pretty dagerous situation. Don't play down everything.
Manifesto7
Profile Blog Joined November 2002
Osaka27157 Posts
March 15 2011 11:17 GMT
#2759
On March 15 2011 20:15 Quarz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:43 Manifesto7 wrote:
On March 15 2011 19:42 fanta[Rn] wrote:
while it is 100 times higher than usual it's still LOW and not a human risk.


Thank you. Again, context is important people.


Because you dont die immediately doesn't mean that is not dangerous. Those people who work there are in a pretty dagerous situation. Don't play down everything.


Yeah, except we were referencing about the number in Ibaraki prefecture, not at the plant. Thanks though.
ModeratorGodfather
Womwomwom
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
5930 Posts
March 15 2011 11:19 GMT
#2760
On March 15 2011 20:15 Quarz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2011 19:43 Manifesto7 wrote:
On March 15 2011 19:42 fanta[Rn] wrote:
while it is 100 times higher than usual it's still LOW and not a human risk.


Thank you. Again, context is important people.


Because you dont die immediately doesn't mean that is not dangerous. Those people who work there are in a pretty dagerous situation. Don't play down everything.


Yes and that still doesn't mean people in Tokyo are going to suffer greatly from radiation like a lot of the media seems to be suggesting with context-less "5 times the normal radiation levels!". That's the point people are making, its the serious situation but its not one where people who be shitting their pants and crying out for the ban on nuclear energy.
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