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On March 06 2014 09:22 moktira wrote: Do you believe he did plan to have Arianne marry Viserys first? If yes then it would seem with Viserys' death that Daenerys was his only was of keeping his long term plan.
The other thing about the Yronwoods is that a lot of information we get about them is from Arianne's POV and she is biased as she believes it is their plan to have Quentyn installed as the Prince of Dorne. She is quite distrustful of them as a result. Doran might not have the same animosity to go to such lengths to have their heir killed. I think Doran even used the Yronwoods to delay Balon Swann which indicated they might not be on as bad terms as their houses were in the past. I must confess I need to do re-read though as I've forgotten a lot of details.
I don't know, of all the Dorne intrigue and conspiracies this one seems less likely to me.
Yes. However, Viserys turned out badly and Doran did not originally mean for his son to marry Daenerys, as she was promised to another in exchange for an allied army. She was a young girl who was viewed as a sacrificial piece without moves left. Illyrio confirms this when he says that he had not expected her to survive/thrive among the dothraki.
The events afterwards support your point. The news of Daenerys gaining dragons and an army would have been a good surprise for the Prince of Dorne. An unsure opportunity, but still a way to get behind a surviving Targaryen and gain an allied army. It makes the most sense that Doran would want his son to marry Daenerys.
At this point, it's less credible theory and more opinion and assumption.
The deteriorating state of westeros could provide an opportunity for Doran to exact his revenge. Only the Reach and the West remain staunch supporters of the crown, and they struggle for control (especially with the Lannisters and company having suffered losses and the Tyrells and their bannermen holding the upper hand). This alliance has to rein in the defeated but hostile North and Riverlands, face the continued risk of Stannis (no matter how small), and face raids/rebellion from the Iron Islands.
A little more conflict and Doran could be in a position to harm what remains of House Lannister, without Daenerys.
There's also the question of whether Doran would trust Daenerys, considering that her father and brothers hadn't been good leaders nor helpful to his family.
Aerys was mad and kept Elia and her children hostage/kept them from escaping to Dragonstone. Viserys was mad and his lack of leadership and sense got him killed. Rhaegar favored Lyanna Stark and brought dishonour to his wife Elia and House Martell. His actions became the catalyst for the unrest that resulted in the murder of Doran's royal sister, niece, and nephew.
Afaik, Yronwoods are a firm supporters of Doran, since he gave them Quentin as a ward, showing a lot of respect and faith in them, and they ve been helping him at every turn, though who knows, some twists are possible i guess.
As for Dorne causing trouble on their own, just no, It's described many a time how their biggest strength are their defensive capabilities, and the army they can actually mobilize is around 15k, in spite of the speculations that the dornish have an army comparable to the reach, which is a result of the Young Dragon buffing up their numbers during his conquest, as well as neighbouring lords who had fueds with them, and didnt manage to win much in the past.. A large part of Dorne is desert.
A much more interesting point is thr Hightower family, they used to be loyalists, and even though the info is sketchy, we do know they are very rich, can muster a large army, and there are some hints here and there that their loyalty to Highgarden isnt as solid as the Tyrells might think. Sadly i cannot quote relevant parts, but i remembr that they stuck out to me.
On March 13 2014 02:19 domane wrote: All we know is that the 50,000 figure was exaggerated by Daeron and continued to be used by Dorne. But I think 15,000 is too low.
The Martells say "50,000 spears" so maybe it is not a lie. I think Dorne's real military strength is around 25,000 with men carrying two spears each.
Pretty sure that when GRRM says xxx spears/swords, he means men and not the weapons literally lol. Whether the character who makes the statement has given an accurate statement is another matter. GRRM is famous for using unreliable narrators to deceive unsuspecting readers.
On March 13 2014 02:19 domane wrote: All we know is that the 50,000 figure was exaggerated by Daeron and continued to be used by Dorne. But I think 15,000 is too low.
The Martells say "50,000 spears" so maybe it is not a lie. I think Dorne's real military strength is around 25,000 with men carrying two spears each.
I have a hard time believing Dorne could field a larger force than the North, when its half the size and similarly inhospitable.
On March 13 2014 02:19 domane wrote: All we know is that the 50,000 figure was exaggerated by Daeron and continued to be used by Dorne. But I think 15,000 is too low.
The Martells say "50,000 spears" so maybe it is not a lie. I think Dorne's real military strength is around 25,000 with men carrying two spears each.
I have a hard time believing Dorne could field a larger force than the North, when its half the size and similarly inhospitable.
These books are not exactly "realistic" about everything. Dorne has as many men as GRRM says it has.
On March 13 2014 02:19 domane wrote: All we know is that the 50,000 figure was exaggerated by Daeron and continued to be used by Dorne. But I think 15,000 is too low.
The Martells say "50,000 spears" so maybe it is not a lie. I think Dorne's real military strength is around 25,000 with men carrying two spears each.
I have a hard time believing Dorne could field a larger force than the North, when its half the size and similarly inhospitable.
These books are not exactly "realistic" about everything. Dorne has as many men as GRRM says it has.
Not about everything, but I would argue Martin is very realistic when it comes to the logistics of warfare.
On March 15 2014 02:18 1ntrigue wrote: Pretty sure that when GRRM says xxx spears/swords, he means men and not the weapons literally lol. Whether the character who makes the statement has given an accurate statement is another matter. GRRM is famous for using unreliable narrators to deceive unsuspecting readers.
I don't take it literally for other groups, just with Dorne. The book always uses "spears", instead of men or spearmen when describing the size of Dorne's army, and it is repeated often enough (I see it as a simple trick).
Also, I don't see Quentyn downright lying to Daenerys when he's trying to win her over. Saying "50,000 spears" still allows him to tell the truth in a roundabout way.
Maybe not quite half that number, but I think Dorne has close to 25,000 available men, give or take several hundred or a few thousand.
On March 15 2014 04:47 l3loodraven wrote: I have a hard time believing Dorne could field a larger force than the North, when its half the size and similarly inhospitable.
(1) Robb Stark's 18,000 only represented a (large) part of the North's military strength. A sizeable number of them were not recruited and remained behind when he moved south.
(2) Based on the information available in ASOS and ADWD, I estimate the groups that we've read about number around 9,000-10,000.
[500] Ramsay's men from the Dreadfort [2,000] Winterfell/Cerwyn/Tallhart army betrayed by Ramsay and Dreadfort men [3,000] Hill tribesmen that joined Stannis [500] Arnolf Karstark's men from Karhold [~3,000] men gathered collectively at Winterfell by the northern lords when they were summoned by Roose Bolton.
(3) The rest would be the number of men Manderly, Dustin, Ryswell, Flint of Widow's Watch/Ramsgate, Reed, and other 'healthier' houses have remaining collectively within their territories.
I would guess this number is around ~7,000-8,000.
18,000 + 9,000 in Wolfswood or Winterfell or killed in action + ~7,000-8,000 left behind in home territories
Pre-war North's military strength was probably close to 35,000.
- Aria fights in the Inn (but who? Tickler is dead ... ) - Bran crawls up the Children's cave? - Lots of fighting the Wildlings - Random people kissing on a boat? (One of the sand snakes?) - Dany after riding her dragon into the mountains? - Sansa in the vale? - Ramsay all cut and bruised?
On March 20 2014 01:47 GumBa wrote: Has anyone else got the feeling the show hasnt done stannis justice? I love him in the books but dont really feel it for him in the show.
It's one of the most common criticisms of the show, actually, alongside the general Shae hatred.
I predicted this. She'll get to kill Ilyn Payne too, I think. The others on her list will be dead before she can get to them.
I didn't read, I haven't read anything from TWOW, but this makes me wonder how far along he is with the book. I'd think a 2014 release would be very surprising. Probably more like 2015-2016...
I predicted this. She'll get to kill Ilyn Payne too, I think. The others on her list will be dead before she can get to them.
I didn't read, I haven't read anything from TWOW, but this makes me wonder how far along he is with the book. I'd think a 2014 release would be very surprising. Probably more like 2015-2016...
2015 sounds about right. He released 11 chapters of ADWD before he published it, and there was a lot of content of ADWD that got scrapped and pushed to TWOW.
EPT
