EPTEvil Geniuses Discussion - Page 117
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Gaial
United States313 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On August 05 2016 19:39 Pandemona wrote: Hope you right Taf :D wouldn't mind seeing all those team sweating it out. However the TNC 0-2 Escape seems a bit .... interesting xD Never said it was likely. Haha The "Full Chaos" result is gotta be less than 1% likely, when adjusting for current Team state. EG's Upper Bracket guarantee is also probably around the 98-99%. On August 05 2016 20:56 Gaial wrote: I think EG has a better shot at beating LGD than [A]. Just seems like [A] always puts up a good fight against what EG try to do. I would expect them to be a harder match in general. Alliance, since going back to their Aegis-winning roster, is actually better than their general results. The problem is their drafting is really wonky way too often. | ||
Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51449 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
I'm curious if the Wisp games will keep paying off by causing first-phase ban on it again. | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
"ALL OF THEM!"  Edit: Should have edited that in, my bad. Edit 2: And EG through to the Upper Bracket! Now to figure out what they need to do to lock in top 2 in group. Edit 3: Since, at this moment, the rest of Group A, minus OG, have at least 5 losses, EG just needs to win 1 out of 3 to lock up top 2. They need to finish the day with the same record as OG, to lock up the #1 spot. | ||
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Atoissen
Norway1737 Posts
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Gaial
United States313 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On August 06 2016 06:27 Gaial wrote: Well, they made the upper bracket. I like that they tested Zai on a jungler such as NP. I think it'd work against a different hero comp. I liked some of the stuff they attempted, but Broodmother happened. It strikes me that Alliance pulled out a Vega trick against EG. Though game 1 against Alliance is one of those situations where they thought they had all of the damage to just blow up the Ancient and it just didn't die by 300 hp. One of those things that, if the game meant anything to EG, would be a brutal one. Alliance, though, did show a really interesting Drow counter in game 2. Obviously, Broodmother was there, but going super, super tanky made the early game much rougher for EG. (That they picked NP against, well, Alliance, did let [A] show off their knowledge of how to deal with the hero.) Though EG did pull their foot off the gas a bit after they beat LGD in game 1. Considering what is required of high-level dota (especially the vision/warding game), that doesn't surprise me too much, but I'd have still liked them to at least gone 2-2 on the day. But even Peter can't draft Alchemist into AA. (Though LGD had to completely sell-out to make that work. A little better warding and LGD failing a few gank attempts and they'd have been in real trouble.) | ||
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lolnoty
United States7166 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
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Gaial
United States313 Posts
On August 06 2016 08:36 Taf the Ghost wrote: Frankly, that game 2 draft might have been Alliance's best so far at TI. It also helps that Bulldog has a fairly advanced, though new to the competitive scene, build on Broodmother, keeping the hero relevant into the late game. But Alliance also had to pull out all of the stops to win, and they got gifted one by an ultra-late game mistake by EG. Even the casters thought the Ancient was going to die. (Heck, so did Alliance, I imagine.) IIRC, there was also some hesitation on EG's part on whether to attack the ancient or to kill lone druid, which may have also cost them the game. | ||
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Achaian
United States3369 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51449 Posts
1 Game a day should defo favour PPD i think and he will be studying Newbee games in group alot right now i guess and we have the extra day of starting on tuesday. | ||
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Danzo
2820 Posts
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lolnoty
United States7166 Posts
It wasn't even hard to take it safe in that scenario. 3v5 and lone druid is right next to Mirana/Drow that could kill him in 3 seconds, and they decided to let him pound away. | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On August 07 2016 15:18 Danzo wrote: Right when I was starting to feel confident about EG, they get 0-2 by Alliance (game 1 should have been ours, massive misplays at the end). EG weakness is sticking out like a sore thumb, and waga even mention how weak they are against long split pushing lines ups. Alliance playstyle almost hard counters everything about EG. Except they won against TNC in that situation and they only lost to Alliance in game 1 because the Ancient just didn't die. Late-game Frost Armor, of all things. Every other team GG's out in that situation, but Alliance got a little lucky at the end of a 70+ minute game. Sure, ppd is probably a little salty about that, but I wouldn't expect it to be a problem. (They'll kill any heroes around next time.) Alliance does play EG really well, but most of that is down to s4 improving his drafting. Maybe because he faced up against ppd more than other captains, but he normally improves against him. Plus, let's not remove the fact that EG had nothing to play for and Alliance had everything on the line. They had to bust out the Broodmother and, in game 2, a clear plan for how to abuse a first phase draft of her. Dota is an information game, and Alliance had to break out something I'm quite sure they didn't want to. But the difference between lower & upper is an assured 200k USD, so you better break out your best stuff. Though they only ended up in that position because of losing a game to Escape. (Alliance is a team that should have beat Newbee at Epicenter but for a really bad call to take Rosh. They're really good when they play within themselves, but their drafting is so erratic that I think Swindlezz put it best. Alliance is their own Meta.) What was really cocky was drafting Alchemist INTO an AA against LGD. EG had their spot locked up, that was clearly a "let's see if we can do it" move. | ||
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HotGlueGun
United States1409 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On August 09 2016 00:49 HotGlueGun wrote: Even if EG got first in the group do you think they would have chose MVP over Newbee? MVP seems to stomp us every time (exception being at the Shanghai Major but that was a while back). Newbee has dropped 6 games and EG usually matches up well against Chinese teams (other than Wings who transcend regional style). Not sure. Newbee is the better matchup for EG, but MVP.P has gotten pretty badly manhandled in the past 2 Majors by the top Western teams. I think having time to prepare is the key. When you get them in a Weekend-type event, much like Wings, you just aren't prepared for the curveballs. Actually, it's more like facing a knuckleball thrower. If you're not ready for it, you're in a world of hurt if they're having a good day. The main thing, though, is I think Group B looked a lot weaker. I wasn't able to catch as much action out of it, and while DC & Ehome played cleanly, I think the competition was tier lower. I would favor a 2/2 split of the groups when it comes to moving to the Upper Bracket Semis, but Group A taking all 4 series wouldn't shock me, either. (Wings & Alliance are super hard to predict. Though I still favor both of them to lose their matchups.) One thing I've noticed is a lot of people talk about all of the great Dota being played, but this happens with every massive group stage. Most of it wasn't very good and only a few teams were consistent. We really do know the 4 teams that can take the title. OG, EG, Ehome & DC. It's going to be one of those 4. Though one of the other Upper Bracket teams could make a run to the Finals. ( If someone is going to run a big string of upsets, it's probably Wings. But they looked horrible in most of the games they lost, and not in the "we got out drafted" manner, either.) Still, OG is the outright and clear favorite at this TI. So we'll see who steps up to beat them. As for tomorrow's EG vs Newbee match, Chuan's hero pool is still Newbee's biggest issue. This has actually been true since this version of Newbee formed after the shuffle. If you can force kaka into putting Chuan on a meta-but-not-comfortable hero, you can really mess up Newbee, as you prevent their early rotations from getting them a lead going into the mid-game. They've done a lot more pushing since Manila (especially with Drow; see Game 5 @ Nanyang Finals vs Wings for a great example), but against the better teams they can't get off to the start they want and can't hold the mid-game. (That's how they went on that huge win streak; broken Phoenix didn't hurt matters.) ET seems to be something they don't run that much and aren't quite great with it. Wisp & Drow are big for them, so expect some fascinating aspects to the drafts because of that. | ||
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Danzo
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