New year, same old prediction contest. At least on the surface. We have made some changes that we hope will make the contest more exciting / even better.
Changelog
Three winners! Yes, you read that right. We'll be crowning three winners. One for the group stage, one for the playoff stage, and one overall winner. So if you miss the group stage you can still enter the playoffs and have a chance to win.
Stats, stats, stats, stats! This is very experimental but our goal here is to try to find the biggest upsets, in terms of your predictions. We'll be tracking the results of each game, compared to your predictions. If you want to have a look at the concept of this, check out our testing document.
How to enter
The document can look intimidating at first but don't worry, filling it in is easy. The completed doc will also have examples from LiquidDota staff members. We still made a quick guide for you. If you're still confused, join the Discord and we'll get you sorted!
Overview sheet
Enter your LiquidDota username in a free cell
Group Stage / Playoffs sheets
Your name will have been automatically filled in on these pages, assuming you followed the instructions above.
Fill in your prediction, under your name, in the following format: WINNER GAMESWON-GAMESLOST
Example:
Note that you need to use the same team names as in the leftmost column. (Aka. Mski for Mineski, PSG.LGD for LGD)
Predictions will close with the first draft of the first map of the series.
As we are w world wide community, we realize not everyone will be able to catch every single match live. This means that predicting GSL style groups can be hard, you can basically get all the matches of the day wrong by predicting one series incorrectly. To prevent this (and to allow you to get some sleep) we will allow you to enter multiple guesses for unknown matches. Here's an example of what that can look like:
As you can see I added guesses for all possible permutations for the Winners' match for Group A. I can do the same for any (or all) other groups. An admin will come by and edit the cell at some point, so your score will be correct.
The solid line
As we're grouping games by group, and not play day, we've added a solid line to show which games are played on the same day. Here's what it looks like:
So the first three games are played on day 1, and the two remaining ones on day 2.
Prizes
Do you want to annoy everyone else on the forums? Well in that case, this is the contest for you! If you win, you'll get a fancy forum title proclaiming you are the Oracle of the Chengdu Major! It will look similar to this. (If Dirkzor wins again, we might have to come up with a new concept.)
Biggest upset Only 1 person predicted that NaVi would beat EG. Not a single person predicted the 2-1 score! Shoutout to Coolin!
"Duh" of the day 90% of participants guessed that Liquid would beat paiN but only 38% predicted the score correctly. This means that the easiest prediction of the day was actually Nigma's 2-1 score against TNC! 43% of people predicted the 2-1 score in favour of Kuro & co.
G.O.A.T Tracking Dirkzor currently sits in 7th place with 14 points. Let's keep it that way.
On January 19 2020 05:04 Julmust wrote: Day 1 summary: Current leaderboard: (places 1-3) 1. DJWilma - 16pts 1. Nessuno - 16pts 3. Geisterkarle - 15pts 3. Ricci - 15pts 3. Dobr1n - 15pts 3. Yurie - 15pts
Biggest upset Only 1 person predicted that NaVi would beat EG. Not a single person predicted the 2-1 score! Shoutout to Coolin!
"Duh" of the day 90% of participants guessed that Liquid would beat paiN but only 38% predicted the score correctly. This means that the easiest prediction of the day was actually Nigma's 2-1 score against TNC! 43% of people predicted the 2-1 score in favour of Kuro & co.
G.O.A.T Tracking Dirkzor currently sits in 7th place with 14 points. Let's keep it that way.
Didnt Coolin have good 'off' predictions last time as well?
If I wasn't near the lead and most had bet on Alliance vs RRi then RRi seems to have a decent shot at winning that series. A good sleeper if one wants to pick up points.
On January 20 2020 03:11 Yurie wrote: If I wasn't near the lead and most had bet on Alliance vs RRi then RRi seems to have a decent shot at winning that series. A good sleeper if one wants to pick up points.
Day 2 summary: Current leaderboard: (places 1-3) 1. mercy - 38pts 1. Yurie - 38pts 3. Dirkzor - 37pts 3. kala - 37pts 3. Dobr1n - 37pts
mercy and Yurie gets to share the group stage win!
Biggest upset So during day 1 we had a game where only one person correctly predicted the score. Well day 2 didn't want to be any worse so today we had one series where no on got any points. All contestants thought that TNC were going to beat Aster. We were all wrong!
"Duh" of the day VG beat Chaos 2-0. Something 91% of participants predicted. And those remaining 8% predicted a 2-1 victory for VG. Runner up was EG vs. paiN (2-0 EG) where 82% predicted the correct score and everyone predicted the correct outcome.
G.O.A.T Tracking Dirkzor has climed to a share third place, just one behind the two leaders. I thought we talked about this? DO NOT LET HIM WIN AGAIN!
Climber of the day The best individual score of the day was oberyn's 25 points! A nice recovery after getting all first four individual series wrong.
Format: Group: Cumulative correct team % / Cumulative correct team + score %
So what we did is we went through the groups and added together the percentage scores of each group. Here's an example for Group A: So Cumulative correct team % (yellow+green) is: 52 + 75 + 68 +0 +78 = 273
the Cumulative correct team + score % (green): 43 + 18 + 18 + 0 + 25 = 104
So with that explanation out of the way, here are the group scores. Max score is 500:
A: 273 / 104
B: 374 / 269
C: 305 / 87
D: 333 / 185
What this basically says is that we, as a community, predicted the correct winner in over 50% of the matches. The scores also tells us that Group B was the easiest group to predict, while Group C was full of upsets.
Bc is just a beast to predict (Haha). They can come out swinging and look unstoppable but if they get a bit behind they fall to the 'save your buddy' syndrome.
Biggest upset Surprisingly enough, EG's win against Nigma was the biggest upset we saw. Only 23% of us predicted EG to win the series against Nigma. However, almost all of those predictions (20%) were correct (EG 2-1).
"Duh" of the day (Almost) everyone knew that bc would beat paiN. (Almost) everyone was right. 92% predicted the match correctly.
G.O.A.T Tracking I looked at the sheet and couldn't see Dirkzor in the top 10. I celebrated. Then I used my eyes and saw he was in second
Climber of the day EMPwarrior1 and Wineandbread both had a perfect score for the day! 10/10!
Biggest upset Again, we're kind of split. Fnatic vs. TNC was the most surprising seen to the winner but only 1 person predicted Liquid 2-0ing NaVi. Congrats Rabidch!
"Duh" of the day Few doubted Secret against Alliance. And rightfully so! 95% of participants walked away with at least one point and 59% walked away with two!
G.O.A.T Tracking The top battle is actually so exciting! All of yesterday's top four had a bad day. Thanks to that, not much has changed. But Yurie now has a small lead over the GOAT. This one will go down to the wire!
Climber of the day Thetwinmasters is todays big winner! 9 points out of 12 possible made him climb to 2nd in the playoff ranking and 10th overall!
Biggest upset Again, we're kind of split. Fnatic vs. TNC was the most surprising seen to the winner but only 1 person predicted Liquid 2-0ing NaVi. Congrats Rabidch!
"Duh" of the day Few doubted Secret against Alliance. And rightfully so! 95% of participants walked away with at least one point and 59% walked away with two!
G.O.A.T Tracking The top battle is actually so exciting! All of yesterday's top four had a bad day. Thanks to that, not much has changed. But Yurie now has a small lead over the GOAT. This one will go down to the wire!
Climber of the day Thetwinmasters is todays big winner! 9 points out of 12 possible made him climb to 2nd in the playoff ranking and 10th overall!
Isnt it 2 and 3 points?
Anyway it was such a bad day yesterday. I'm playing to safe. Time for risks.
Biggest upset: Maybe some fan favoritism here, but most had Liquid as the winner vs. Alliance. 64% thought they would go on to face EG. 64% was wrong =)
"Duh" of the day EG was the favorite going in to their match today. 90% had them correctly predicted as winners. 52% had the correct score too.
G.O.A.T Tracking The G.O.A.T is back where he rightfully belongs. Number one, baby. But with 15 players within reach of the first spot nothing is decided yet.
Climber of the day DJWilma had the best day today. Only missing one point from a perfect day with 8/9. It also puts him 2nd in the playoff ranking with 29 pts, trailing by 5 points to EMPwarrior1 in the lead with 34 pts.
On January 26 2020 05:10 Dirkzor wrote: Day 7 summary:
G.O.A.T Tracking The G.O.A.T is back where he rightfully belongs. Number one, baby. But with 15 players within reach of the first spot nothing is decided yet.
To quote someone: - "HOW THE FUCK ARE YOU ON TOP AGAIN???? HOW DO YOU KEEP DOING THIS????"
On January 26 2020 22:01 rabidch wrote: at this point in time, i have determined that dirkzor+kala will win unless EG wins the major, which puts DJWilma at the top.
I tried with the 2-0 for EG to get tied to DJWilma but ended up 2 behind instead. (Honestly didn't think EG would win that series.)
The final rankings: 1. Dirkz0r - 69 pts 2. Kala - 69 pts 3. EMPwarrior1 - 68 pts 3. Mercy - 68 pts
Don't ask me how but: THE GOAT DOES IT AGAIN! I honestly can't believe this. It was close, came down to a tiebreaker, but it was an honest win from the oracle.
The tiebreaker rules are: "Tiebreakers will only take place if two, or more, people are tied for first place. We will first check each series, in reverse chronological order, and the first series where only one of the tied contestants got the prediction completely right will determine the outcome.
If there are no such series, we will rank contestants in accordance to their score in the playoff. Lastly, if that is not possible, we will perform a lottery draw to decide on the winner."
Both Kala and Dirkzor correctly predicted EG's 2-0 win against Alliance on the second to last day. The difference-maker was that Dirkzor correctly predicted Liquid's 2-1 win over TNC the day before that.
Thanks everyone for participating, both here and on Discord. If you have any ideas for how this can be improved, feel free to drop them off in this thread or drop me a PM!
I can't believe i won again. I really didnt think i would this time. Thx for a great competition. So close this time. I would have liked DJWilma to take it with that insane EG 2-1 into EG 3-2 last day predictions. Nearly paying off.
On January 28 2020 05:11 Julmust wrote: Titles have been added/modified for Dirkzor and EMPwarrior. Couldn't find mercy on the site
Big congrats to Mercy and EMPwarrior for winning the group and playoff stages. EMP did very impressive in the playffs with a big gap to most other players.
On January 28 2020 05:11 Julmust wrote: Titles have been added/modified for Dirkzor and EMPwarrior. Couldn't find mercy on the site
Big congrats to Mercy and EMPwarrior for winning the group and playoff stages. EMP did very impressive in the playffs with a big gap to most other players.
EPT
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