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It doesnt matter at this point what anyone says
Most likely the democratic party will be decied by the super delegates who get to vote for anyone they want and unless they believe that we will be getting out of this small resession ect. Hiliary will be elected other wise if people feel peachy glory obama would
Although i feel at this point obama is buying the election due to the fact he can actually afforid to run ad/s 24/7 at all primaries. Most likely due to his endowed speech that Hiliary lacks.
Basically
if things go bad its hillary who gets the popular vote
If things turn out better in the next month or so its obama
Sad news for all those people that hope for a Obama hillary or Hillary obama ticket for the national ticket due to this being so strnung out, Due to people not willing to play second fiddle when they are so close to winning.
I dont really follow the republican's due to how bad they are now of days. The whole im a social conservite and a econ liberal visa-versa. They dont stick to their basic truths to make decisions which made the rupublican party great.
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Canada9720 Posts
nobody else commented on this (if im mistaken, i apologize), but this is indeed a very good speech.
i think obama made a mistake by making an analogy of abraham and isaac, but, still, everything he said is true.
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i'm a big fan of reading prediction markets as a way of seeing who's winning the race.
this article was interesting for me
Prediction markets now see Obama defeating Clinton
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080211/pl_nm/usa_politics_predictions_dc_1
Traders wagering on the outcome of the U.S. presidential vote were overwhelmingly betting on Monday that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will defeat former first lady Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and ultimately win the presidency.
+ Show Spoiler [Article] + WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Traders wagering on the outcome of the U.S. presidential vote were overwhelmingly betting on Monday that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will defeat former first lady Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and ultimately win the presidency.
Obama, whose campaign swept four state Democratic presidential contests against Clinton over the weekend, was trading at about 70 on Monday on the Dublin, Ireland-based Intrade predictions market, meaning traders gave him a 70 percent chance of being the Democrats' presidential candidate in the November election.
Clinton, who replaced her campaign manager in a staff shake-up, was selling at about 30, meaning traders gave her a 30 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination, data on the Intrade web site showed.
Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a nonprofit exchange run by researchers at the University of Iowa, had similar expectations, giving Obama a 70 percent chance of winning the nomination and Clinton about a 27 percent chance.
Researchers who study political forecasting markets say their predictive power is comparable to opinion polls. Contracts are generally structured so prices can be read as the percentage likelihood of a candidate winning the race.
Arizona Sen. John McCain was the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination, with Intrade traders giving him nearly a 95 percent chance of winning.
His rival Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, was given only about a 2.5 percent chance of winning, despite winning two of three state contests over the weekend. The two Republican candidates were given similar chances by traders on the Iowa exchange.
Intrade traders gave Obama a 46 percent chance of winning the presidency, versus 33 percent for McCain and 20 percent for Clinton.
As recently as January 1 traders were giving Clinton about a 70 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination. But expectations about Clinton's candidacy tumbled after the first of the year, dropping below 30 percent after she lost the Iowa presidential contest to Obama.
Her New Hampshire victory surprised the forecasting markets and she recovered to trade between 55 and 70 until the days after February 5, when nearly half the U.S. states chose presidential candidates. Since then expectations have been falling and Clinton has lost several state contests to Obama.
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Well let's hope Obama sweeps the Potomac Primary, then takes Texas and Ohio, then Pennsylvania.(I think that is the Primaries in order).
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pretty much. Wisconsin is in there as well, on feb 19
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ooooh man obama could take this...looking REALLY close
Lol @ whoever loses between them though, so much money down the drain
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Korea (South)11598 Posts
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On February 12 2008 09:28 IzzyCraft wrote:
It doesnt matter at this point what anyone says
Most likely the democratic party will be decied by the super delegates who get to vote for anyone they want and unless they believe that we will be getting out of this small resession ect. Hiliary will be elected other wise if people feel peachy glory obama would
Although i feel at this point obama is buying the election due to the fact he can actually afforid to run ad/s 24/7 at all primaries. Most likely due to his endowed speech that Hiliary lacks.
Basically
if things go bad its hillary who gets the popular vote
If things turn out better in the next month or so its obama
Sad news for all those people that hope for a Obama hillary or Hillary obama ticket for the national ticket due to this being so strnung out, Due to people not willing to play second fiddle when they are so close to winning.
I dont really follow the republican's due to how bad they are now of days. The whole im a social conservite and a econ liberal visa-versa. They dont stick to their basic truths to make decisions which made the rupublican party great.
There are rumors that the superdelegates will slide away from her (one already has) especially if she loses texas. (Two superdelegates confirmed this on condition of anonymity in the Nytimes)
And the superdelegates Ive seen speak publicly (on CNN and ABC) all stated reluctance about going against the public vote.
Superdelegates have only decided it once before, and they went in the same direction as the popular vote.
For Obama to win popular vote, delegates and states and lose off super delegates would be a huge deal for the democratic party.
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Germany2896 Posts
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Canada9720 Posts
xkcd's pretty much only funny when they joke about programming, and then...
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On February 12 2008 06:26 a-game wrote:
you only need 2025 to win
That means it is imposible to have a tie. Go OBAMA!
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intrigue
Washington, D.C9935 Posts
i saw obama yesterday at a rally at the university of maryland, college park
all i can really say is that the man is quite an extraordinary speaker. i've never really been political and held the same cynicism towards all that bullshit as most posters here probably do but man oh man listening to him is mesmerizing, i found myself standing and clapping
i am definitely going to vote this time, wow
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Obama seems to be winning Virginia.
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Obama Takes Virginia, its 63% vs 36% with 83% votes in.
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Fuck, losing Maryland right now.
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He won according to CNN. 8 in a row for him, he leads in delegates no matter which way you count. Now if he wins one of the upcoming big states like Texas he will apparently have a very high probability of getting the nomination.
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Yea he is in the lead according to Fox in Maryland, but haven't said anything for D.C.
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Cnn currently says Obama leads 72% vs 26%, but only 2% in so anything can happen.
Obama going to win DC too, has 76% vs 24% with half of the votes in.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/fandom.png)
![[image loading]](http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/writers_strike.png)
