EPTUS Politics Mega-Blog - Page 25
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On September 28 2018 12:46 LegalLord wrote: I will say this much: it's been a busy week and I haven't had the time to actually listen in on the hearing. But I wanted to know what was happening, so I was looking for sources that live blog it. One way or another I could swear that there's two alternate realities at play here, one in which Ford & co are making nonsensical accusations that are supported by nothing and the other in which they made powerful, damning statements that would convince any sane individual that Kavanaugh has no place in public office. I'm quite certain that we'll have a vote, and whichever way it goes we won't be talking about this ever again in a month. The accusations were put forth, it was weighted in the vote, and whatever the outcome it will be a done deal and that's that. This is certainly one of the most blatant cases I've seen in a while where a bunch of people can look at the very same thing and everyone sees exactly what they wanted to see, with no real sense of objective truth being apparent from just gleaning the sum of opinions. There's no middle ground here. The democrats played politics in the most heinous way imaginable with a completely uncorroborated claim. There's no investigation to be done. There's nothing for the FBI to do that the SJC hasn't already done. Who gives a flying fuck about bringing Judge in to testify when he's simply going to say "I have no knowledge of any of this"? Same with the other witnesses who all said they had no knowledge of Ford's accusations. Here's how deficient Ford's accusations are: you can't even get a warrant with them. They are literally a zero. The arguments being made by the democrats for delaying the vote are entirely specious. If they really wanted an "investigation," then they should have taken this shit public weeks ago. God knows Ford wanted it -- that's why she lawyered up and took the polygraph test. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On September 28 2018 12:56 Danglars wrote: Collins and Murkowski (particularly) have all the cover in the world to vote no. This report is very surprising. I mean, they're already known as GOP squishes. No republican in their right mind would vote no on Kavanaugh given the baselessness of the accusations and the political horseshit pulled by the democrats. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On September 28 2018 13:00 xDaunt wrote: No republican in their right mind would vote no on Kavanaugh given the baselessness of the accusations and the political horseshit pulled by the democrats. I've never really considered Collins to regularly act in her right mind. Her legislative history involves heavy compromise on topics that matter to the tradition base because of her liberal ideology. She already offered one of the lamest takes on why she couldn't support a possible Coney Barrett appointment. Murkowski was very adamant in her Obamacare repeal during the campaign. When it came down to a vote, she was nowhere to be found. The Dem horseshit and the political gamesmanship are powerful reasons for them to still vote to confirm. That's for sure. But all either has to do is some lily livered comment on how Ford was toyed as a political weapon, and the process was abused, but that she still can't feel comfortable voting yes after hearing Ford's testimony. That's entirely within their character. (And they wouldn't go as far as a "Believe All Women" stereotypical excuse) The second possibility is just citing the pressure from American Bar Association to effect some kind of investigation. Also, whatever additional pressure comes Friday. Blah blah blah "but it's still not fair for Ford without an investigation" and they don't even have to mention why the accusations were baseless. That's why I find it surprising with those two. I expected Flake to follow in Graham's thinking. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23305 Posts
I'm starting to realize that pundits tend to have no damn idea what people outside of their circles think. This was a miserable failure for Democrats, they think it was a huge win, and now they're talking about impeaching/removing Kavanaugh or at least pitching it to people ignorant enough to believe they would. 2 years of progressives drilling into their heads that medicare for all is what will get people to hold their nose and vote for Democrats and they're like "Ah screw that, we'll just keep piling on sexual abuse and Russia allegations until Republicans break and don't vote for Trump/Republicans" Like they aren't going to spend national party money trying to reelect one of the votes Kavanaugh will get for confirmation. Democrats are going to have to lose 2020 with a Kamala Harris or yet another Hillary loss and they still might not understand that Democrats aren't going to win trying to depress Republican turnout or convincing themselves that Kavanaugh is going to be any significant contributor to Democratic turnout. Again, Roy Moore overwhelmingly won white women, and Trump backing him hurt his approval for a week or so and bounced right back (people too embarrassed to say they approved with that stuff in the headlines). People have stopped thinking critically about a lot of this stuff and just repeat whatever they read or hear from wherever they trust. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9677 Posts
Ford should never have been there in the first place. She should have done what everyone else does and just tried him through public opinion in the press. She's let herself become a political football. No-one has come out of this well at all. The democrats look exploitative and desperate and the republicans just all looked like they were doing a roleplaying exercise in a sensitivity training session - badly. To the rest of the world (I'm more qualified to talk about what this looks like to Europeans than I am to talk about US opinions) it looks pretty disgraceful when we get home from work to see a potential sexual assault victim being cross examined live on TV. That the democrats even gave republicans an excuse to do so by acting as though they were part of a choreographed conspiracy is despicable. | ||
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IgnE
United States7681 Posts
On September 28 2018 06:47 xDaunt wrote: I actually haven't done a deep dive on Kavanaugh's jurisprudence. What specifically do you not like about it? im not talking about his jurisprudence. im talking about his “virgin” boy scout talk cast against a conservative political platform of christian temperance and family values | ||
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IgnE
United States7681 Posts
On September 28 2018 09:31 GreenHorizons wrote: Not with the intent to discredit rather than establish the truth. That was my point. what i would take issue with are the rules of evidence and the weight courts place on eyewitness testimony, not the adversarial system or cross-examination | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23305 Posts
On September 28 2018 19:27 IgnE wrote: what i would take issue with are the rules of evidence and the weight courts place on eyewitness testimony, not the adversarial system or cross-examination I'd take all of the above but it's probably fair to say I'm prejudiced to the very notion that our system and justice/truth are more than tangentially/rhetorically related. As far as Trump goes his numbers aren't going any lower than they've been regardless of what comes out of Mueller, and clearly the sexual impropriety stuff failed, so either Democrats figure out a message quick fast and in a hurry, pray that Black women look past that the party tried to shut them out of practically every race they ran in, and progressive candidates manage to talk their voters into voting around the ballot. Otherwise they might not even take the house which would be a political failure of a magnitude I'm not sure any of us have seen in our lives (electorally speaking anyway). | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On September 28 2018 19:27 IgnE wrote: what i would take issue with are the rules of evidence and the weight courts place on eyewitness testimony, not the adversarial system or cross-examination Yeah, I’ve been saying this for years to people. Evidentiary rules and other legal formalisms that reduce access to courts (ie drive up costs) are the real problems with our courts. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On September 28 2018 14:45 GreenHorizons wrote: I have my own interpretation of what happened at the hearing, but the reality is that practically no one budged from their corners, the few who did, turns out were the Doodsmacks. I'm starting to realize that pundits tend to have no damn idea what people outside of their circles think. This was a miserable failure for Democrats, they think it was a huge win, and now they're talking about impeaching/removing Kavanaugh or at least pitching it to people ignorant enough to believe they would. 2 years of progressives drilling into their heads that medicare for all is what will get people to hold their nose and vote for Democrats and they're like "Ah screw that, we'll just keep piling on sexual abuse and Russia allegations until Republicans break and don't vote for Trump/Republicans" Like they aren't going to spend national party money trying to reelect one of the votes Kavanaugh will get for confirmation. Democrats are going to have to lose 2020 with a Kamala Harris or yet another Hillary loss and they still might not understand that Democrats aren't going to win trying to depress Republican turnout or convincing themselves that Kavanaugh is going to be any significant contributor to Democratic turnout. Again, Roy Moore overwhelmingly won white women, and Trump backing him hurt his approval for a week or so and bounced right back (people too embarrassed to say they approved with that stuff in the headlines). People have stopped thinking critically about a lot of this stuff and just repeat whatever they read or hear from wherever they trust. It's stopped being about the issues. The Democrats have hardly tried to appeal to the policies that need to be implemented to help the people they want to win over, now it's all about trying to get that one scandal that will finally sink the bad dude for good. In passing it seems like all the news out of the mainstream left-leaning sources is all Mueller all the time, and as you say these people really are just preaching to the converted because they have no idea what people think outside of their circles (although said opinions seem to be surprisingly and uncharacteristically popular in the main thread). The numbers show the House is likely theirs - not because they're winning many toss-ups, but because there are more traditionally Democratic/Obama districts that are both safe and predicted to go in their favor. But somehow they're making Trump 2020 look exceedingly likely, unless they win the investigation lottery. In the meantime, let's try to see if we Democrats can make insinuations of sexual misconduct stick on various nominees, and if not, I guess we can just never talk about this again and let it go through on schedule. Who's even in the talent pipe for a potential 2020 run? No one I'd consider was being talked about, that's for sure. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23305 Posts
On September 28 2018 22:13 LegalLord wrote: It's stopped being about the issues. The Democrats have hardly tried to appeal to the policies that need to be implemented to help the people they want to win over, now it's all about trying to get that one scandal that will finally sink the bad dude for good. In passing it seems like all the news out of the mainstream left-leaning sources is all Mueller all the time, and as you say these people really are just preaching to the converted because they have no idea what people think outside of their circles (although said opinions seem to be surprisingly and uncharacteristically popular in the main thread). The numbers show the House is likely theirs - not because they're winning many toss-ups, but because there are more traditionally Democratic/Obama districts that are both safe and predicted to go in their favor. But somehow they're making Trump 2020 look exceedingly likely, unless they win the investigation lottery. In the meantime, let's try to see if we Democrats can make insinuations of sexual misconduct stick on various nominees, and if not, I guess we can just never talk about this again and let it go through on schedule. Who's even in the talent pipe for a potential 2020 run? No one I'd consider was being talked about, that's for sure. That's why I'm making it clear now that not winning the house (by a decent margin at that) is a failure. I guarantee you no matter how bad Democrats do it will not be because they refused to listen to the progressive wing of their party at every possible turn. Lucky for them Gillum is a solid Trojan horse and should be able to carry Nelson in FL, but there's a small chance Gillum wins and Nelson loses which would be the ultimate indictment of the Democratic party, particularly over the last 3 years where literally all they had to do was find someone believable to lie to progressives instead of rallying behind Hillary and spending a year explaining why it wasn't her fault and 2 year completely failing to even really dent Trump's approval and dragging theirs even further into the dumps in the process. Politics increasingly sucks when I grapple with just how unaligned my interests are with either party and even the "least bad choice" is fucking terrible at achieving the incremental stuff they pursue. I just want to know where in the world people are getting this ridiculous notion that Democrats are actually going to do anything about Kavanaugh. By the 2020 election Trump will have done 100 things that stick out in people's minds more than this Kavanaugh thing which I assure Democrats will be dismissed with a "he was confirmed with a bipartisan vote". Right now I'm leaning toward Trump winning 2020 unless he decides not to run or something major (not the Mueller investigation) changes in the next 2 years. EDIT: lol okay the walking out is just too much. If they just didn't show up they couldn't hold a quorum and the vote is at minimum delayed. They should have an acting award strictly for politicians. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On September 28 2018 14:45 GreenHorizons wrote: I have my own interpretation of what happened at the hearing, but the reality is that practically no one budged from their corners, the few who did, turns out were the Doodsmacks. Good for doodsmack. It's definitely not easy to look at the facts beyond the immediate media bubble and then form one's own opinion accordingly. I'm starting to realize that pundits tend to have no damn idea what people outside of their circles think. This was a miserable failure for Democrats, they think it was a huge win, and now they're talking about impeaching/removing Kavanaugh or at least pitching it to people ignorant enough to believe they would. 2 years of progressives drilling into their heads that medicare for all is what will get people to hold their nose and vote for Democrats and they're like "Ah screw that, we'll just keep piling on sexual abuse and Russia allegations until Republicans break and don't vote for Trump/Republicans" Like they aren't going to spend national party money trying to reelect one of the votes Kavanaugh will get for confirmation. Democrats are going to have to lose 2020 with a Kamala Harris or yet another Hillary loss and they still might not understand that Democrats aren't going to win trying to depress Republican turnout or convincing themselves that Kavanaugh is going to be any significant contributor to Democratic turnout. Again, Roy Moore overwhelmingly won white women, and Trump backing him hurt his approval for a week or so and bounced right back (people too embarrassed to say they approved with that stuff in the headlines). People have stopped thinking critically about a lot of this stuff and just repeat whatever they read or hear from wherever they trust. I have a couple thoughts about this. The first is this. When was the last time (before Trump) that the Democrats actually had to deal with a super-aggressive GOP when they tried to pull a stunt like they did with Kavanaugh? Hell, when was the last time that they had to deal with someone like Kavanaugh who didn't give an inch on anything? Trumpism is getting contagious on the Right, and I'm not sure that the Democrats have figured out how to deal with it. The old playbook of bullshit isn't going to work when the opposition is going to call their bluff at every turn. My other thought, which is related, is that the Democrats have clearly been retarded by their over-reliance upon a sycophantic media. In the old days, they could say whatever they wanted knowing that they'd have immediate and powerful cover from the media. That veil was shown to be in tatters after Trump won in 2016. In short, and to GH's point, cheap political tricks aren't going to have the same effect anymore. Instead, the Democrats need to start relying upon the merits of their political arguments, which, again as GH keeps harping on, are woefully deficient right now from years of neglect. The Democrats need to start coming up with some real policies that differentiate themselves from the GOP. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
I’ll say this, if you thought yesterday was an agreessive group of Democrats, post 2018 might be a real bummer for you. This group of Conservatives have never been in the minority and they seem terrified of what that might look like after this. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On September 29 2018 00:01 Plansix wrote: You mean that time when the GOP didn’t hold hearings on Obama’s Supreme Court nominee for like a year? Or all those federal judges they refused to confirm? Biden rule is a bitch, isn't it? I’ll say this, if you thought yesterday was an agreessive group of Democrats, post 2018 might be a real bummer for you. This group of Conservatives have never been in the minority and they seem terrified of what that might look like after this. I think that a majority of the American people know what time it is when it comes to Kavanaugh's nomination and the charges being made against him. They saw it all on TV, and it was made abundantly clear when Lindsey Graham went on his tirade. While I have no doubt that the far, rabid Left is going to make some noise about what has happened, most Americans have a far more moderate temperament. They do have basic understandings of due process and the rule of law, and they recognize smear-job railroading when they see it -- particularly when it is so blatant. While I have no doubt that most Americans saw Ford as being an excellent witness for herself, I also have no doubt that in Kavanaugh they saw a man who has been profoundly wronged by the Democrats. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Maybe it’s a bit of a “might makes right” situation, in that it looks like Republicans win all three situations because they have the Senate and now the president. Maybe that’s the major difference in how their petty power plays work out. But I think all that means is that Democrats decided to play the scumbag even without getting any benefit from it. Sounds incompetent. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23305 Posts
On September 29 2018 00:12 xDaunt wrote: Biden rule is a bitch, isn't it? I think that a majority of the American people know what time it is when it comes to Kavanaugh's nomination and the charges being made against him. They saw it all on TV, and it was made abundantly clear when Lindsey Graham went on his tirade. While I have no doubt that the far, rabid Left is going to make some noise about what has happened, most Americans have a far more moderate temperament. They do have basic understandings of due process and the rule of law, and they recognize smear-job railroading when they see it -- particularly when it is so blatant. While I have no doubt that most Americans saw Ford as being an excellent witness for herself, I also have no doubt that in Kavanaugh they saw a man who has been profoundly wronged by the Democrats. I'm not going to get into your and p6 spat but it's not the "far rabid left" (<blog-mod hat>pick a better adjective next time please) that's making all the noise and you know that. That's the center/center-left you're talking about. That said, the far left are not fans of any of this from my observations (reflected in my own voice in previous posts on the subject). | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On September 29 2018 00:12 xDaunt wrote: Biden rule is a bitch, isn't it? I think that a majority of the American people know what time it is when it comes to Kavanaugh's nomination and the charges being made against him. They saw it all on TV, and it was made abundantly clear when Lindsey Graham went on his tirade. While I have no doubt that the far, rabid Left is going to make some noise about what has happened, most Americans have a far more moderate temperament. They do have basic understandings of due process and the rule of law, and they recognize smear-job railroading when they see it -- particularly when it is so blatant. While I have no doubt that most Americans saw Ford as being an excellent witness for herself, I also have no doubt that in Kavanaugh they saw a man who has been profoundly wronged by the Democrats. What Biden rule? There is no Biden rule. That isn’t a thing. He said that one time in a floor speech and nothing happened after that. The only bitch is the McConnel making up shit to justify abusing his hold on the senate. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
When I talk about the far Left, I usually don't have GH in mind. Really I'm thinking of the SJW-types. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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