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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 9184

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 03:32:23
November 09 2017 03:21 GMT
#183661
Hmm, well if it passes then it incentivizes me to work hard so I go from middle class to upper class in the next few years before the middle class breaks expire right?
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 03:31:58
November 09 2017 03:26 GMT
#183662
Wulfey: Already did in an above post, which actually looked at the bill in aggregate (excluding estate tax), which is corroborated by every other study that looks at the bill in the aggregate that I've seen. Again, the tax burden shift is measured in the aggregate. Whether or not taxes are raised for families with multiple dependents in the 30-75k bracket is not how you try and answer the question of "Is this regressive relative to the status quo?"

Have you guys ever heard the phrase "the plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'"? There's plenty of good reasons to hate this bill. I'm not sure why so many people feel the need to perform this level of mental gymnastics to confirm their worldview that every GOP tax bill is purely a handout to the 1%, when they could just hate the bill for being unaccommodating to those with kids or with injuries or whatever and that would be a perfectly reasonable stance

Ticklish: I know my marginal rate is going from 28% to 35%. The cut is generally in how the brackets are structured. Out of curiosity, what incomes are you seeing where the marginal rate is dropping?
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 03:30:04
November 09 2017 03:29 GMT
#183663
Because it also is a tax cut for the very large companies that don't pay a lot of taxes already on the backs of middle class people. The cut in the corporate tax rate isn't going to make it down to me and my middle class people. It can be terrible for all of the reasons you listed and a tax break for the wealthy.

And then there is that estate tax, which is firmly targeted at rich people.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28892 Posts
November 09 2017 03:31 GMT
#183664
eliminating estate tax itself is purely a handout to the 1%, no? Or possibly even less than that, when the cutoff was already at $11 million.
Moderator
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
November 09 2017 03:33 GMT
#183665
On November 09 2017 11:08 mozoku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2017 10:41 Plansix wrote:
Number of dependents is not a random deduction. Or interest on student loans. Or state taxes. If you don't understand how real people file taxes, maybe you should leave the discussions to people who do.

In terms of regressive vs progressive, the deductions don't matter. Regressive vs progressive relative to status quo is a simple matter of where the tax burden is shifting. You're free to hate the tax bill because it eliminates deductions for dependents, but you're incorrect in claiming it's regressive when the tax burden is shifting towards the rich despite the elimination of whatever deductions you're a fan of.

I haven't looked too close... The tax burden seems to be shifting away from the rich, no?

They could fix that by taxing muni's..
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 03:38:09
November 09 2017 03:36 GMT
#183666
On November 09 2017 12:26 mozoku wrote:
Wulfey: Already did in an above post, which actually looked at the bill in aggregate (excluding estate tax), which is corroborated by every other study that looks at the bill in the aggregate that I've seen. Again, the tax burden shift is measured in the aggregate. Whether or not taxes are raised for families with multiple dependents in the 30-75k bracket is not how you try and answer the question of "Is this regressive relative to the status quo?"

Have you guys ever heard the phrase "the plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'"? There's plenty of good reasons to hate this bill. I'm not sure why so many people feel the need to perform this level of mental gymnastics to confirm their worldview that every GOP tax bill is purely a handout to the 1%, when they could just hate the bill for being unaccommodating to those with kids or with injuries or whatever and that would be a perfectly reasonable stance

Ticklish: I know my marginal rate is going from 28% to 35%. The cut is generally in how the brackets are structured. Out of curiosity, what incomes are you seeing where the marginal rate is dropping?


Only your dollars over the bracket line are going to 35%.

And no, that the 30-75k bracket sees tax increases while the 1000+ bracket sees tax decreases is proof positive that the tax plan is regressive. Working and professional class W2 earners get tax increases, while the idle wealthy get tax breaks. EDIT: you can maybe play a semantic dodge here and pretend like you mean regressive in absolute percentages. The Republican tax plan as written and as shown in the CBO scoring is a 100% regressive shift in taxation. The shift might not be enough to throw federal level taxes into absolute regressiveness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regressive_tax
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28892 Posts
November 09 2017 03:38 GMT
#183667
Honestly though I'm on board with corporate tax cuts personally as long as other taxes on individuals are increased to match those cuts. I don't pretend to understand the finer intricacies of this, but I see even Norwegian leftists argue positively for lowered corporate taxes, just not in a vacuum. That said, an overall 'huge tax cut' is pretty much always going to be regressive (even if it doesn't change the percentages of who pays how much into the total tax pool) because it will necessarily be coupled with spending cuts, which is pretty much always going to hurt the poor more than the rich.
Moderator
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 09 2017 04:07 GMT
#183668
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 04:47:03
November 09 2017 04:44 GMT
#183669


This will translate poorly. Fuck, it will play poorly in the US.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
November 09 2017 04:48 GMT
#183670
On November 09 2017 13:44 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/DavidNakamura/status/928478768678785024

This will translate poorly. Fuck, it will play poorly in the US.


ugh
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44286 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 04:52:32
November 09 2017 04:51 GMT
#183671
On November 09 2017 13:44 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/DavidNakamura/status/928478768678785024

This will translate poorly. Fuck, it will play poorly in the US.

....
I think Chinese people may think that a nation that openly exploits another to generate an artificial trade imbalance may be acting immorally. I mean that's basically the defining point in China's century of humiliation. That's why the Opium Wars happened.

It's hard to explain this in layman's terms but it's like he went to Israel and said "you guys are gassing us over in America, like totally gassing us, but it's cool, I understand, sometimes it's the right thing to do'.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
November 09 2017 04:51 GMT
#183672
Hey, Trump and diplomacy go together like honey and ghost peppers. I don't think it'll really matter (though his defensive doubling down on it may)q
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 05:01:09
November 09 2017 05:00 GMT
#183673
America First! Unless you are beating America. Then I don't blame you because you are a winner.

EDIT: wait, no, this is a distraction play. Big Mueller dump on Friday incoming.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
November 09 2017 05:00 GMT
#183674
It will play well with his base, which is increasingly proving to be a group that only wants to be told what they want to hear. But Jesus, we need China to do things like deal with NK and not fight over the south China sea.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
November 09 2017 05:02 GMT
#183675
On November 09 2017 12:07 Wulfey_LA wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2017 11:08 mozoku wrote:
On November 09 2017 10:41 Plansix wrote:
Number of dependents is not a random deduction. Or interest on student loans. Or state taxes. If you don't understand how real people file taxes, maybe you should leave the discussions to people who do.

In terms of regressive vs progressive, the deductions don't matter. Regressive vs progressive relative to status quo is a simple matter of where the tax burden is shifting. You're free to hate the tax bill because it eliminates deductions for dependents, but you're incorrect in claiming it's regressive when the tax burden is shifting towards the rich despite the elimination of whatever deductions you're a fan of.


You need to show your work on this one. At the 10 year mark the 30-75k bracket sees a net tax increase based on CBO projections.

Here is the chart again at the 10 year mark.
+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]


Don't worry they will renew the incentives before the 10 year mark. When was the last time we went 10 years on the same tax plan?
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44286 Posts
November 09 2017 05:03 GMT
#183676
His base aren't going to know that a nation actively intervening with another to fix a balance of trade deficit is considered to be really fucking evil in China. They're not going to know that he called them the moral equivalent of Lord Palmerston. They're still mad at China for Pearl Harbor.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
November 09 2017 05:09 GMT
#183677
On November 09 2017 14:00 Plansix wrote:
It will play well with his base, which is increasingly proving to be a group that only wants to be told what they want to hear. But Jesus, we need China to do things like deal with NK and not fight over the south China sea.


You've got the causality all wrong. They want to hear whatever Trump says.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
November 09 2017 05:21 GMT
#183678
On November 09 2017 14:00 Plansix wrote:
It will play well with his base, which is increasingly proving to be a group that only wants to be told what they want to hear. But Jesus, we need China to do things like deal with NK and not fight over the south China sea.


The South China Sea is the geopolitical centre of the 21st century, you can be pretty sure that China will try to assert itself there.
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
November 09 2017 06:11 GMT
#183679
On November 09 2017 14:21 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2017 14:00 Plansix wrote:
It will play well with his base, which is increasingly proving to be a group that only wants to be told what they want to hear. But Jesus, we need China to do things like deal with NK and not fight over the south China sea.


The South China Sea is the geopolitical centre of the 21st century, you can be pretty sure that China will try to assert itself there.


Good thing DJT pulled us out of any massive multilateral trade deals that would have dollarized that area. America First!
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-11-09 06:41:00
November 09 2017 06:28 GMT
#183680
On November 09 2017 13:51 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 09 2017 13:44 Plansix wrote:
https://twitter.com/DavidNakamura/status/928478768678785024

This will translate poorly. Fuck, it will play poorly in the US.

....
I think Chinese people may think that a nation that openly exploits another to generate an artificial trade imbalance may be acting immorally. I mean that's basically the defining point in China's century of humiliation. That's why the Opium Wars happened.

It's hard to explain this in layman's terms but it's like he went to Israel and said "you guys are gassing us over in America, like totally gassing us, but it's cool, I understand, sometimes it's the right thing to do'.

Don't you think this a more than a little hyperbolic? This is pretty misleading for those who aren't really familiar with Chinese culture.

I'm pretty sure the century of humiliation is known as that much more because of the lost wars, forced treaties, and massed induced addictions than the Britain's strategy to artificially reverse its trade deficit.
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