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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-26 02:23:07
May 26 2017 02:22 GMT
#152861
In case someone was curious, the NYT has live-updates on the situation in Montana. Polls have been closed for a bit more than 1 hour if my time conversion magic is correct. But anyways:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Seems super close to me, with the Democrat currently in the lead by 1% but I can't really judge how representative the counties so far are. So if someone else has a bit more knowledge on that, I'd like hearing about that
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
May 26 2017 02:32 GMT
#152862
whats the end time for that? If its soon it looks solid for a narrow Democrat victory I think could almost exclusively be attributed to the body slam thing, and if not that I assume the Libertarian candidate is siphoning quite a victory margin away from Gianforte.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 26 2017 02:34 GMT
#152863
The Democrat will take cities and the GOP will take the countryside with the win most likely.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-26 02:38:01
May 26 2017 02:37 GMT
#152864
looks like GOP is ahead by 0.1% already now [and as I refresh even 0.4%]. Guess it'll be a moment for (GOP) to be scared but nothing more as they win it in the end, even if it ended up much closer than it should have been.

What happens if the guy ends up getting fined or even gets a prison sentence for a couple days?
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12535 Posts
May 26 2017 02:49 GMT
#152865
Yeah Gianforte looks like he has this, the margin will still be interesting though.
No will to live, no wish to die
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
May 26 2017 02:50 GMT
#152866
This is probably in no contest territory now.

I assume that misdemeanor assault charges won't do much with regards to his seat at this point.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12535 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-26 02:53:14
May 26 2017 02:52 GMT
#152867
Garfield county's 4 precincts: votes for Hillary => 21, 5, 4, 4 votes for Quist => 21, 5, 3, 2

Lol
No will to live, no wish to die
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35174 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-26 03:01:03
May 26 2017 03:00 GMT
#152868
On May 26 2017 11:52 Nebuchad wrote:
Garfield county's 4 precincts: votes for Hillary => 21, 5, 4, 4 votes for Quist => 21, 5, 3, 2

Lol

It takes a special kind...

How can you see what's going on with Trump and go "You know, I had reservations before, but gimme more of that."
ZeromuS
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
Canada13422 Posts
May 26 2017 03:02 GMT
#152869
On May 26 2017 12:00 Gahlo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2017 11:52 Nebuchad wrote:
Garfield county's 4 precincts: votes for Hillary => 21, 5, 4, 4 votes for Quist => 21, 5, 3, 2

Lol

It takes a special kind...

How can you see what's going on with Trump and go "You know, I had reservations before, but gimme more of that."


Tribal politics and only caring about money. Promises of money.
StrategyRTS forever | @ZeromuS_plays | www.twitch.tv/Zeromus_
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
May 26 2017 03:17 GMT
#152870
The reason the GOP will win this is because a majority of the votes were done via early voting meaning that they were already in before the assault charge even happened. I am sure had it been a month ago then the GOP loses this race but with that fact I think they inch out a win.
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
May 26 2017 03:39 GMT
#152871
Certainly won't help him in 2018 when it matters.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
May 26 2017 03:43 GMT
#152872
On May 26 2017 12:17 Adreme wrote:
The reason the GOP will win this is because a majority of the votes were done via early voting meaning that they were already in before the assault charge even happened. I am sure had it been a month ago then the GOP loses this race but with that fact I think they inch out a win.


Maybe we're under estimating how many people haven't voted, and are voting today? :|
Life?
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
May 26 2017 04:12 GMT
#152873
On May 26 2017 12:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2017 12:17 Adreme wrote:
The reason the GOP will win this is because a majority of the votes were done via early voting meaning that they were already in before the assault charge even happened. I am sure had it been a month ago then the GOP loses this race but with that fact I think they inch out a win.


Maybe we're under estimating how many people haven't voted, and are voting today? :|


I mean the estimates are between 60 and 70 percent and especially in largely republican areas so any potential backlash would be lessened.
Scarecrow
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Korea (South)9175 Posts
May 26 2017 04:25 GMT
#152874
On May 26 2017 12:17 Adreme wrote:
The reason the GOP will win this is because a majority of the votes were done via early voting meaning that they were already in before the assault charge even happened. I am sure had it been a month ago then the GOP loses this race but with that fact I think they inch out a win.

I think you vastly overestimate how much GOP voters care about a journalist being beaten up by a politician. Trump could choke-slam a CNN reporter and his approval rating wouldn't go down.
Yhamm is the god of predictions
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
May 26 2017 04:36 GMT
#152875
that as well as disbelief in what actually happened that day.
I checked Breitbart comment section when it happened just for shitz and giggles to see what people over there would make of it with such a clear cut case and even then the vast majority of people just ended up not believing that what happened actually happened.
Instead arguing that a) he deserved it (like mentioned above) but also that b) it went down as explained in the statement, including the recorder being shoved into someones face, constant badgering as well as refusal to leave after multiple times being politely asked to do so before the body-slam.
Which as everyone who listened to the recording knows, is complete bullshit but they believe that statement over a recording.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
May 26 2017 04:39 GMT
#152876
On May 26 2017 12:17 Adreme wrote:
The reason the GOP will win this is because a majority of the votes were done via early voting meaning that they were already in before the assault charge even happened. I am sure had it been a month ago then the GOP loses this race but with that fact I think they inch out a win.

I'm not sure it would've mattered even a month ago. Maybe with a conviction or video or big pictures of Jacob's bruised face (shock value). This is 49th or 50th of the 50 states in terms of internet connectivity. I'm guessing it will be as denying as Trump's pussy comments.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20255 Posts
May 26 2017 06:34 GMT
#152877
At least with Hillary she would have you know actually appointed people to work in the government and made a cabinet with competent people. Not to mention sticking it to the GOP members of congress with her supreme court pick and the ability to veto whatever stupid dumpster fire of ideas the GOP congress shits out. Seriously I don't have as big of problem with conservatism as I do with the utter clowns conservatives choose to represent them in congress. But maybe I should thank them because between them and Trump conservatism will probably lose a looot of respect the next few years since Democrats can't do anything to them that they aren't already doing to themselves.
Never Knows Best.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
May 26 2017 06:57 GMT
#152878
On May 26 2017 15:34 Slaughter wrote:
At least with Hillary she would have you know actually appointed people to work in the government and made a cabinet with competent people. Not to mention sticking it to the GOP members of congress with her supreme court pick and the ability to veto whatever stupid dumpster fire of ideas the GOP congress shits out. Seriously I don't have as big of problem with conservatism as I do with the utter clowns conservatives choose to represent them in congress. But maybe I should thank them because between them and Trump conservatism will probably lose a looot of respect the next few years since Democrats can't do anything to them that they aren't already doing to themselves.

Better some clowns to cause a little havoc than a slick crew that oppose my interests! And hell, you said it buddy, sticking it to the Democrat members with his supreme court pick (RIP Garland). I can't think of a better successor to that suave Obama. Everybody's going so crazy and it's absolutely marvelous. He's doing such ludicrous stuff, but not to be outdone, the media sprinkles in three ridiculous accusations for every one solid. I'm trending below 50% agreement with what Trump does, for sure. But the Dems didn't run a Lieberman type, they gave me an unsatisfactory second choice. I'm having some trouble thinking up a likely Dem candidate I'd actually consider better than Trump for my political views. Political churning, at this point, is vastly preferable to a determined push leftward.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12535 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-05-26 07:00:18
May 26 2017 07:00 GMT
#152879
6 points difference in Montana, well... It's a little bit more than I was hoping it would be, but certainly a lot less than would have been needed for republicans to feel comfortable about 2018.
No will to live, no wish to die
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24357 Posts
May 26 2017 07:23 GMT
#152880
On May 26 2017 15:57 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2017 15:34 Slaughter wrote:
At least with Hillary she would have you know actually appointed people to work in the government and made a cabinet with competent people. Not to mention sticking it to the GOP members of congress with her supreme court pick and the ability to veto whatever stupid dumpster fire of ideas the GOP congress shits out. Seriously I don't have as big of problem with conservatism as I do with the utter clowns conservatives choose to represent them in congress. But maybe I should thank them because between them and Trump conservatism will probably lose a looot of respect the next few years since Democrats can't do anything to them that they aren't already doing to themselves.

Better some clowns to cause a little havoc than a slick crew that oppose my interests! And hell, you said it buddy, sticking it to the Democrat members with his supreme court pick (RIP Garland). I can't think of a better successor to that suave Obama. Everybody's going so crazy and it's absolutely marvelous. He's doing such ludicrous stuff, but not to be outdone, the media sprinkles in three ridiculous accusations for every one solid. I'm trending below 50% agreement with what Trump does, for sure. But the Dems didn't run a Lieberman type, they gave me an unsatisfactory second choice. I'm having some trouble thinking up a likely Dem candidate I'd actually consider better than Trump for my political views. Political churning, at this point, is vastly preferable to a determined push leftward.


I feel like you're almost to Bernie between the three of them. Maybe a couple more months max. I know he's not great for your political views, but he would have raised expectations as far as politicians being honest without the associated shame of being the leader of the political party you begrudgingly support.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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