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On April 18 2017 03:44 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2017 03:40 Mohdoo wrote:
Is there any not shitty justification for Trump closing up the visitor book? This seems blatantly shitty. None that I am aware of. It is one of those things that they are not required to do. It isn’t hard for the press to figure out who is going to the White House, so not releasing the guest book is a kinda silly move. They the President’s schedule anyways.
Reminds me a bit of Trump trying to hide the fact that he's out golfing while his staff claims he's in meetings. It is just so transparent a lie as to be idiotic.
Stupid? Yes. Something that Trump would've gone crazy criticizing Obama over? Also yes.
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On April 18 2017 03:40 Mohdoo wrote:
Is there any not shitty justification for Trump closing up the visitor book? This seems blatantly shitty.
none that I've heard proferred officailly. I'm sure I could come up with something arguably passable. Or at least a neutral-ish justification.
like others say though, it's not exactly hard to see who goes into the white house.
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On April 18 2017 05:04 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2017 03:40 Mohdoo wrote:
Is there any not shitty justification for Trump closing up the visitor book? This seems blatantly shitty. none that I've heard proferred officailly. I'm sure I could come up with something arguably passable. Or at least a neutral-ish justification. like others say though, it's not exactly hard to see who goes into the white house.
Yeah, and I suppose if someone was trying really hard to make sure someone was not detected, they probably wouldn't be on that list anyway.
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The White House is small and the press are literally inside the White House. And there is a bunch of staff and tours. It is not the place to have secret meetings. I am sure they can sneak someone in if necessary, but it would be better to meet anyplace else. It would be like sneaking people into Congress. It can be done. But why?
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I do wonder what will happen with the north korea situation. Trump has placed himself in a position where he has to do something if korea continues business as usuall or risk loosing face (probably an unbearable thought for not only trump but also the administration as a whole). Maybe he did this on purpose to make sure north korea takes it serious. But north korea can just call Americas bluff. I don't see how America can do anything without seoul or worse being leveled in the process. Their only option to prevent that would be to take out the whole leadership in 1 blow,possibly with help from agents inside north korea. If china would help then maybe it could work though I don't really see why they would. Its a bit of an all or nothing strategy. And what if north korea just stays low for a few months,and then slowly begins testing again?
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Trump voters are absolutely going to lose their shit if he also starts to intervene in North Korea. That said it would be very unwise to let NK get nuclear weapons. I'm actually happy that Trump has turned 180 degrees around on this. His weird hand-waving of nuclear proliferation during the campaign was absolutely stupid.
I also think China is going to cooperate with the US if NK continues to spiral, I get that they see it as their buffer zone but the regime is getting too crazy
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There is nothing that Trump could do to alienate his voters. He was on TV, remember?
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NPR reported say NK is scared shitless that Trump might launch and is ramping up the saber rattling. This morning there were a huge number of western reporters still in NK from covering some event. I don't know if they are still there, but they were delayed for 8-10 hours.
People shouldn’t look at the situation like two rational actors with reasonable information. Both the US and NK are operating on imperfect information and NK has a limited understanding of the US, let alone Trump. The fear, lack of direct communication and limited information are all ripe to cause some terrible response.
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Normally I would ignore NK sabre rattling, but like Plansix said, we aren't dealing with rational actors imo. If Trump was President during the Cuban middle crisis we'd all be dead.
My fear is Trump looks at his approval bump after the Syria bombing and starts thinking more war is the key to likability, even if with NK.
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China is important indeed,if china does not work with the usa then I don't think the usa can take out the whole leadership. And even if they could the remaining people will still have the confidence to continue when they are supported by china. Kim could be replaced by someone else,supported by china,but I don't see how that brings the usa anything in the long run.It would be a symbolical victory for the usa without changing much. North korea will still have the nukes it has and can still continue testing. It will also be impossible to get rid of the new leadership if it is strongly supported by china.
And even this could easily fail,north korea might have procedures in place to start an artillery attack on seoul independent of leadership orders,just relying on commanders on the field.
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On April 18 2017 05:33 pmh wrote:
I do wonder what will happen with the north korea situation. Trump has placed himself in a position where he has to do something if korea continues business as usuall or risk loosing face (probably an unbearable thought for not only trump but also the administration as a whole). Maybe he did this on purpose to make sure north korea takes it serious. But north korea can just call Americas bluff. I don't see how America can do anything without seoul or worse being leveled in the process. Their only option to prevent that would be to take out the whole leadership in 1 blow,possibly with help from agents inside north korea. If china would help then maybe it could work though I don't really see why they would. Its a bit of an all or nothing strategy. And what if north korea just stays low for a few months,and then slowly begins testing again?
america can't do anything without seoul being levelled (or at least severely damaged). a first strike decapitation would also still lead to seoul being smashed. There's been ample time to setup the kinds of triggers that ensure firing goes through even in case of a decapitating first strike.
What would be needed is a chinese backed coup to get a more reasonable regime that can be worked with, stil very hard, and i'm not sure china has the kind of inside clout to pull it off.
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Our relationship with all of Asia is based around our stance on NK. Both Japan and South Korea rely on the US to buffer them against China’s rouge proxy state(NK). We cannot walk away from the NK issue and expect to keep our relationship with any of the three nations I just listed.
There is no winning with NK, only losing. We need to find lower the tensions, which requires diplomatic skill. But since our president hasn’t even appointed ambassadors to a bunch of nations in that area, I don’t really expect much.
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@zlefin
Yes that is the most plausible and probably best outcome,i agree. But it seems to depend on so many uncertainties and so much can go wrong in the process. That is why the current situation is rather scary,because both sides have placed themselves in a position where it is difficult to go back.
It is probably easier for north korea to go back and stay low then it is for trump/the usa. North korea has the controlled media and they can just report doing tests in their own media without actually doing anything for a few months. This would more or less safe kims face for at least his own population,though it could still weaken his position amongst other high ranking officials as they will know what is going on.
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On April 18 2017 05:37 Nyxisto wrote:
Trump voters are absolutely going to lose their shit if he also starts to intervene in North Korea. That said it would be very unwise to let NK get nuclear weapons. I'm actually happy that Trump has turned 180 degrees around on this. His weird hand-waving of nuclear proliferation during the campaign was absolutely stupid.
I also think China is going to cooperate with the US if NK continues to spiral, I get that they see it as their buffer zone but the regime is getting too crazy
Sorry but NK already has nuclear weapons. What they lack is the delivery systems.
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We don’t understand what is happening inside NK, which is the problem. This type of situation and overwhelming distrust is the cornerstone of the Cold War. Both sides cannot be sure the other isn’t going to launch at any moment.
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On April 18 2017 05:53 pmh wrote:
@zlefin
Yes that is the most plausible and probably best outcome,i agree. But it seems to depend on so many uncertainties and so much can go wrong in the process. That is why the current situation is rather scary,because both sides have placed themselves in a position where it is difficult to go back.
It is probably easier for north korea to go back and stay low then it is for trump/the usa. North korea has the controlled media and they can just report doing tests in their own media without actually doing anything for a few months.
it is indeed. a very risky path; and a lack of people good at deescalation can easily lead to a problem.
north korean sabre rattlings is quite routine, and work carries on in the background even if there's no overt testing being done.
but, not much we can do about it but watch.
I think trump could manage to stay low though, or rather, in trump tsyle ,he simply goes crazy on something else, and that becomes the story, so people forget about NK after a bit.
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Vice President Pence said on a visit to South Korea on Monday that the U.S. "era of strategic patience is over" regarding North Korea and its nuclear and ballistic missile program.
"Since 1992, the United States and our allies have stood together for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula," Pence said at a joint news conference with acting South Korean President Hwang Kyo-Ahn in Seoul. "We hope to achieve this objective through peaceable means. But all options are on the table."
Pence, whose father is a Korean War veteran, earlier visited the Demilitarized Zone between the Koreas, where he could see North Korean soldiers across the divide.
Amid rising tensions with North Korea, Pence pointed to recent high-profile U.S. military actions in Syria and Afghanistan as evidence of the Trump administration's "strength and resolve."
"North Korea would do well not to test his resolve — or the strength of the armed forces of the United States in this region," the vice president warned.
Pence vowed "unwavering support" for South Korea, adding, "We are with you 100 percent."
Just ahead of Pence's arrival in Seoul, the North attempted and failed to launch an unidentified missile in its latest weapons test, further raising international concerns. The day before, it "brandished what appeared to be long-range and submarine-based missiles as part of a military parade, celebrating the 105th birthday of its late founder, Kim Il Sung," as we reported.
The U.S. moved a Navy strike group toward the Korean Peninsula earlier this month, which elicited threats from Pyongyang of "tough counteraction" should the U.S. attack, as The Two-Way reported.
So why the recent escalation of tensions with North Korea? Joel Wit, senior fellow at the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, explains on Morning Edition:
"First, the threat has been growing for a while but it's reaching a point where it's a direct threat to the United States. And by that I mean, if they can put a warhead on top of a missile that can reach the United States, that's obviously a direct threat.
"Secondly, President Trump has a very different approach to North Korea than President Obama, who practiced what was called 'strategic patience.' Essentially trying to put pressure on North Korea and hoping it would come back to the negotiating table. But President Trump is really ratcheting up the pressure while still keeping open the possibility of negotiations."
Wit, who has recently met with North Korean officials, adds: "I think we should not underestimate North Korea's resolve to resist pressure from the United States."
Trump has stated that he wants to see China take a larger role in pressuring the North Korean regime. Monday afternoon, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang called for the resumption of "multi-party negotiations that ended in stalemate in 2009," according to The Associated Press.
Pence's comments at the news conference elicited concern from Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. As the news service reports, "Lavrov told journalists in Moscow that if Pence's words can be understood as a threat to take unilateral action against North Korea, 'then this is a very risky path.' "
Pence is on an Asia-Pacific tour that will include visits to Japan, Indonesia and Australia.
For more on North Korea's weapons development program, NPR's Greg Myre has this explainer
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/17/524316419/pence-tells-north-korea-the-era-of-strategic-patience-is-over
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On April 18 2017 06:01 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2017 05:53 pmh wrote:
@zlefin
Yes that is the most plausible and probably best outcome,i agree. But it seems to depend on so many uncertainties and so much can go wrong in the process. That is why the current situation is rather scary,because both sides have placed themselves in a position where it is difficult to go back.
It is probably easier for north korea to go back and stay low then it is for trump/the usa. North korea has the controlled media and they can just report doing tests in their own media without actually doing anything for a few months. it is indeed. a very risky path; and a lack of people good at deescalation can easily lead to a problem. north korean sabre rattlings is quite routine, and work carries on in the background even if there's no overt testing being done. but, not much we can do about it but watch. I think trump could manage to stay low though, or rather, in trump tsyle ,he simply goes crazy on something else, and that becomes the story, so people forget about NK after a bit.
I really do think that there is no way to go back for trump. He could crazy on something else and make the people at home forget about NK for a while but it would still be a huge setback for the usa in international politics,not only regarding korea. Korea will feel strenghtend because the usa does not "dare" to follow through,most likely resulting in accelerating the weapons program. It also could effect the behaviour of other countries like iran and possibly rusia who might start seeing trump/usa as all talk but no walk.
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On April 18 2017 06:00 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2017 05:37 Nyxisto wrote:
Trump voters are absolutely going to lose their shit if he also starts to intervene in North Korea. That said it would be very unwise to let NK get nuclear weapons. I'm actually happy that Trump has turned 180 degrees around on this. His weird hand-waving of nuclear proliferation during the campaign was absolutely stupid.
I also think China is going to cooperate with the US if NK continues to spiral, I get that they see it as their buffer zone but the regime is getting too crazy Sorry but NK already has nuclear weapons. What they lack is the delivery systems.
yeah sorry, inaccurate wording. *The capability to deliver nuclear weapons accurately. Same story still. Not really something the international community as a whole should tolerate
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As scary as 'war' with NK sounds I feel like it is growing more and more necessary. Trump not exactly the man I want at the head of it either but something does need to be done. NK military equipment may seem like a joke but they are edging closer to be able to do some serious damage. While they could never win an all out war, the more we wait now the higher potential causalities.
They can't do anything really to the states, but they can do some serious damage to Seoul and maybe even Japan if left unchecked much longer. Trump while I hate him, has been dealt a pretty shitty hand to have to deal with this situation early on in his presidency.
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EPT
