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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6989

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
February 28 2017 14:55 GMT
#139761
I don't know how many caught the NYT anti-Trump Oscars ad (truth is more important now!). NRA's firing back:


War on the margins, special interest groups and legacy media establishments, and war at the center of the Trump White House as he struggles to fill positions and plug leaks.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
SoSexy
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Italy3725 Posts
February 28 2017 14:58 GMT
#139762
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.
Dating thread on TL LUL
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46406 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:02:32
February 28 2017 15:01 GMT
#139763
On February 28 2017 23:49 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2017 23:26 LightSpectra wrote:
Elimination of the EC is a worthy cause but it's never going to happen. There's too many people who think it'll turn the USA into California's colony.

I think eliminating FPTP is a more feasible goal, since you could sell it to both left-wingers and right-wingers that it means you could vote in more left-wing/more right-wing candidates than the scum you're getting right now.


I agree. Allocating EC votes based upon % share of the vote in the state (fuck it, we could even round to whole numbers of electors if it will make people feel better because of not being comfortable with fractions) is a necessary first step before even hoping to get rid of the EC college, and it's much harder to whine about because it helps both Dems in red states and Republicans in blue states.

I don't know offhand which party would benefit more, but it would probably be Republicans, so it might actually even happen.

On a side note: anyone think those generals that had 30 days to come up with an anti-ISIS plan have given it to Trump? Maybe he just forgot about it.


The Oscars just happened so Trump has probably been way too busy to deal with ISIS stuff right now.

Why do you think Republicans would benefit more from a first-past-the-post election system or a proportional EC vote allocation system? Just curious.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 28 2017 15:01 GMT
#139764
Last month's deadly commando raid in Yemen, which cost the lives of a U.S. Navy SEAL and a number of children, has so far yielded no significant intelligence, U.S. officials told NBC News.

Although Pentagon officials have said the raid produced "actionable intelligence," senior officials who spoke to NBC News said they were unaware of any, even as the father of the dead SEAL questioned the premise of the raid in an interview with the Miami Herald published Sunday.

"Why at this time did there have to be this stupid mission when it wasn't even barely a week into [President Trump's] administration?" Bill Owens, whose youngest son Ryan was killed during the raid, said. "For two years prior ... everything was missiles and drones (in Yemen)....Now all of a sudden we had to make this grand display?"

A senior Congressional official briefed on the matter said the Trump administration has yet to explain what prompted the rare use of American ground troops in Yemen, but he said he was not aware of any new threat from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the al Qaeda affiliate that was targeted.

The official, and others briefed on the matter who spoke to NBC News, echoed the remarks of Sen. John McCain, R.-Ariz., that the raid was designed to kill or capture one or more militants — something the military did not initially acknowledge.

Instead, Pentagon officials called it a "site exploitation mission" designed to gather intelligence. Defense officials later did not dispute McCain's characterization, saying they were hoping to kill or capture certain militants, though they declined to name them. NBC News and other media outlets have reported that Sheikh Abdel-Raouf al-Dhahab was among the dead. The Pentagon calls him an al Qaeda leader; the Yemeni government disagrees.

Plans for the raid were begun during the Obama administration, but Obama officials declined to sign off on what officials described as a significant escalation in Yemen. Just five days in, Trump greenlighted the mission.

"Certainly the Obama administration, particularly by the end of its eight-year run, was very cautious in moving forward with any kind of military activity," retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former NATO commander and current NBC News security analyst, said. "A new administration I think naturally is going to be spring-loaded to move out and demonstrate something."

The White House has repeatedly called the Yemen mission a success. White House spokesman Sean Spicer said on Feb. 8 that anyone "who undermines the success of that raid owes an apology and [does] a disservice to the life of Chief Owens."

"We gathered an unbelievable amount of intelligence that will prevent the potential deaths or attacks on American soil," said Spicer.

A Defense Department official also pushed back Monday afternoon, saying the raid has yielded "a significant amount" of intelligence.

But the only example the military has provided turned out to be an old bomb-making video that was of no current value.

On Monday, Spicer addressed the remarks of Bill Owens, whose son died.

"I can tell him that on behalf of the president, his son died a hero and the information that he was able to help obtain through that raid, as I said before, is going to save American lives," he said. "The mission was successful in helping prevent a future attack or attacks on this nation."

Multiple senior officials told NBC News they have not seen evidence to support that claim.

In addition to the death of Ryan Owens, six other U.S. service members were wounded. And at least 25 civilians were killed, including nine children under the age of 13, according to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism. One of them was the 8-year-old daughter of U.S.-born al Qaeda cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

A Pentagon official told NBC News today the Pentagon does not dispute these numbers.

A $70 million U.S. aircraft also was destroyed. The Pentagon already has at least three investigations into the raid underway.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
February 28 2017 15:06 GMT
#139765
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.

After that and the super bowl, I hope this puts an end to people publishing “blank has a 87.3% of happening” when they aren't a bookie.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3187 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:11:48
February 28 2017 15:10 GMT
#139766
On March 01 2017 00:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Why do you think Republicans would benefit more from a first-past-the-post election system or a proportional EC vote allocation system? Just curious.


The Republicans would not benefit at all, their only platform is "Democrats are worse than we are". Therefore it is absolutely imperative to established Republicans to keep FPTP in place, because there's no way they would survive an election if there was more than 2 real options.

But, conservatives that are displeased with the GOP (i.e. the non-Tea Partiers) would be very happy with an alternative voting system; it means they could vote out the Republicans they immensely dislike without having to vote for a Democrat.
"don't try to pull a LightSpectra-Trumper"
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:33:54
February 28 2017 15:16 GMT
#139767
On March 01 2017 00:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2017 23:49 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On February 28 2017 23:26 LightSpectra wrote:
Elimination of the EC is a worthy cause but it's never going to happen. There's too many people who think it'll turn the USA into California's colony.

I think eliminating FPTP is a more feasible goal, since you could sell it to both left-wingers and right-wingers that it means you could vote in more left-wing/more right-wing candidates than the scum you're getting right now.


I agree. Allocating EC votes based upon % share of the vote in the state (fuck it, we could even round to whole numbers of electors if it will make people feel better because of not being comfortable with fractions) is a necessary first step before even hoping to get rid of the EC college, and it's much harder to whine about because it helps both Dems in red states and Republicans in blue states.

I don't know offhand which party would benefit more, but it would probably be Republicans, so it might actually even happen.

On a side note: anyone think those generals that had 30 days to come up with an anti-ISIS plan have given it to Trump? Maybe he just forgot about it.


The Oscars just happened so Trump has probably been way too busy to deal with ISIS stuff right now.

Why do you think Republicans would benefit more from a first-past-the-post election system or a proportional EC vote allocation system? Just curious.


It would really depend on the FPTP system/runoff system used, but I don't know much about them.

The proportional thing favoring Republicans is more of a hunch than anything and would heavily depend on the electorate of a given election. It's mostly intuition based upon senators still presumably counting for elector points favoring smaller states, but I would really need to do more detailed analytics taking account necessary thresholds to round up to electors.

It really is disgusting to me that Trump flipping 500,000 votes in New York (getting closer to beating Clinton but not quite there) or Clinton flipping 300,000 in Texas (the same) means absolutely nothing to their national chances compared to Clinton getting every single vote in New York or Trump getting every single vote in Texas. FPTP doesn't solve this, unfortunately.

The kicker is that I think the founder's intent was actually something akin to proportional allocation; the point was electing electors who would pick the right candidate, not pick the same candidate as all the other electors in the state by majority vote of those electors.
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10165 Posts
February 28 2017 15:16 GMT
#139768
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.

You need to play some XCOM.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
February 28 2017 15:23 GMT
#139769
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.


What is your statistics background? Are you aware that things with a 1% chance of happening, do indeed happen every day? Its not like once something makes it past 60%, it is a guarantee.
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3187 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:28:17
February 28 2017 15:26 GMT
#139770
In 2011, there was a referendum in the UK to switch to instant-runoff voting. It was sadly defeated because of spiteful voters that wanted to stick it to Nick Clegg. (Also to blame are Conservatives who rolled out a massive propaganda campaign against it, and Labour who took no official party stance.)

But the interesting thing about that case is that the British National Party surprisingly came out for a 'No' vote. (For those unaware, the BNP is essentially a Nazi party.) One would think that all of the smaller parties would want instant-runoff since it would diverge more power away from the big two parties. But actually the BNP's logic is that their voters always vote for them, and anybody who don't vote for them would always rank them at the bottom anyway, so actually their only chance of winning an election is by some FPTP fluke where all of the other candidates are so divided that their own votershare outranks them out of their sheer incompetence.

Now let's just remember how Trump won the election...
"don't try to pull a LightSpectra-Trumper"
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
February 28 2017 15:27 GMT
#139771
On February 28 2017 23:26 LightSpectra wrote:
Elimination of the EC is a worthy cause but it's never going to happen. There's too many people who think it'll turn the USA into California's colony.

I think eliminating FPTP is a more feasible goal, since you could sell it to both left-wingers and right-wingers that it means you could vote in more left-wing/more right-wing candidates than the scum you're getting right now.


X thing we've never done before is never gonna happen because of reasons I made up right now

But Y thing we've never done before, let me tell you, it can happen for real because of other reasons I made up right now.

Believe me on this I know what I'm talking about.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
February 28 2017 15:27 GMT
#139772
The White House’s deep involvement in hiring decisions across the government is frustrating some of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet secretaries, spurring early tussles between the president’s advisers and leaders of federal agencies.

White House officials have sometimes rejected candidates who have previously criticized the president — even if they boast sterling credentials or have the endorsement of top Republicans. And they’ve often imposed their choices on agencies, according to more than a dozen people inside and close to the administration.

Many Cabinet nominees joined the administration believing they’d have wide latitude to pick lieutenants, but they’re beginning to realize Trump’s powerful advisers are looking over their shoulders. The White House’s approach has already slowed hiring — and the dozens of vacancies at key agencies could make it more difficult to implement some of Trump's policy proposals.

So far, Trump has nominated fewer than three dozen of the 550 most important Senate-confirmed jobs, according to an analysis by the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit group that advised Trump officials during the presidential transition.

Politico

Stuff like this will hurt his first year. Trump's a momentum man so it could even have more impact.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
February 28 2017 15:30 GMT
#139773
On March 01 2017 00:16 Godwrath wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.

You need to play some XCOM.

I nearly spit out my coffee at work. Thank you for this post.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States3187 Posts
February 28 2017 15:31 GMT
#139774
On March 01 2017 00:27 IgnE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2017 23:26 LightSpectra wrote:
Elimination of the EC is a worthy cause but it's never going to happen. There's too many people who think it'll turn the USA into California's colony.

I think eliminating FPTP is a more feasible goal, since you could sell it to both left-wingers and right-wingers that it means you could vote in more left-wing/more right-wing candidates than the scum you're getting right now.


X thing we've never done before is never gonna happen because of reasons I made up right now

But Y thing we've never done before, let me tell you, it can happen for real because of other reasons I made up right now.

Believe me on this I know what I'm talking about.


Yes I'm aware both are unprecedented in the USA. But I'm arguing from a sense of practicality. Half the country loves the EC because it benefits them. That argument's been fought to death and no resolution is in sight.

On the other hand, most of the population isn't exposed to alternative voting systems, so that's an undiscovered country. We don't know what the results of that proposal would be yet.
"don't try to pull a LightSpectra-Trumper"
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
February 28 2017 15:36 GMT
#139775
Its starting to look like my theory of the establishment knowing they'd be able to break Trump's posse was right. Its only been 40 days and look what a hit the "anti-establishment" portion of his cabinet has taken. I think that by the end of the year, this is going to be a rather typical GOP presidency without the weird Bannon stuff.
SoSexy
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Italy3725 Posts
February 28 2017 15:37 GMT
#139776
On March 01 2017 00:23 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.


What is your statistics background? Are you aware that things with a 1% chance of happening, do indeed happen every day? Its not like once something makes it past 60%, it is a guarantee.


Indeed. But I expected one of the biggest american newspaper to have access to better resources than me at home.
Dating thread on TL LUL
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:38:45
February 28 2017 15:38 GMT
#139777
On March 01 2017 00:27 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
The White House’s deep involvement in hiring decisions across the government is frustrating some of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet secretaries, spurring early tussles between the president’s advisers and leaders of federal agencies.

White House officials have sometimes rejected candidates who have previously criticized the president — even if they boast sterling credentials or have the endorsement of top Republicans. And they’ve often imposed their choices on agencies, according to more than a dozen people inside and close to the administration.

Many Cabinet nominees joined the administration believing they’d have wide latitude to pick lieutenants, but they’re beginning to realize Trump’s powerful advisers are looking over their shoulders. The White House’s approach has already slowed hiring — and the dozens of vacancies at key agencies could make it more difficult to implement some of Trump's policy proposals.

So far, Trump has nominated fewer than three dozen of the 550 most important Senate-confirmed jobs, according to an analysis by the Partnership for Public Service, a nonprofit group that advised Trump officials during the presidential transition.

Politico

Stuff like this will hurt his first year. Trump's a momentum man so it could even have more impact.

For someone who is ' unable to name a time when he deserved criticism' Trumps administration sure is afraid of criticism.
Neosteel Enthusiast
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-28 15:40:07
February 28 2017 15:38 GMT
#139778
On March 01 2017 00:31 LightSpectra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 00:27 IgnE wrote:
On February 28 2017 23:26 LightSpectra wrote:
Elimination of the EC is a worthy cause but it's never going to happen. There's too many people who think it'll turn the USA into California's colony.

I think eliminating FPTP is a more feasible goal, since you could sell it to both left-wingers and right-wingers that it means you could vote in more left-wing/more right-wing candidates than the scum you're getting right now.


X thing we've never done before is never gonna happen because of reasons I made up right now

But Y thing we've never done before, let me tell you, it can happen for real because of other reasons I made up right now.

Believe me on this I know what I'm talking about.


Yes I'm aware both are unprecedented in the USA. But I'm arguing from a sense of practicality. Half the country loves the EC because it benefits them. That argument's been fought to death and no resolution is in sight.

On the other hand, most of the population isn't exposed to alternative voting systems, so that's an undiscovered country. We don't know what the results of that proposal would be yet.


Looks like somebody doesn't have a clue about the inertia of gerrymandering and how well liked it is by whichever party is in power. And that's not even getting into the massive campaign necessary to convince voters to pressure representatives to change to something they have no clue about (replace it with what? You're a little heavy on the eliminate end). This isn't just some bill like VAWA whatever, let's do it--it's constitutional amendment & state ratification. As much as I seldom find myself agreeing with Igne, he's dead on in the pie-in-the-sky diagnosis.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
February 28 2017 15:41 GMT
#139779
On March 01 2017 00:37 SoSexy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 00:23 Mohdoo wrote:
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.


What is your statistics background? Are you aware that things with a 1% chance of happening, do indeed happen every day? Its not like once something makes it past 60%, it is a guarantee.


Indeed. But I expected one of the biggest american newspaper to have access to better resources than me at home.


But that's the thing. A PhD statistician can give something an 86% chance of happening, and it does not mean it will happen. A legion of statisticians can tirelessly work to give the most accurate probability as possible, but it will always be a probability. There is no shame in something with an 86% chance of happening, not happening. Rolling snake eyes has a 2.7% chance of happening, but it happens.
SoSexy
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Italy3725 Posts
February 28 2017 15:43 GMT
#139780
On March 01 2017 00:41 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 00:37 SoSexy wrote:
On March 01 2017 00:23 Mohdoo wrote:
On February 28 2017 23:58 SoSexy wrote:
Never forget that '85% chances of Clinton winning' on the NYT website before the counting of votes started.


What is your statistics background? Are you aware that things with a 1% chance of happening, do indeed happen every day? Its not like once something makes it past 60%, it is a guarantee.


Indeed. But I expected one of the biggest american newspaper to have access to better resources than me at home.


But that's the thing. A PhD statistician can give something an 86% chance of happening, and it does not mean it will happen. A legion of statisticians can tirelessly work to give the most accurate probability as possible, but it will always be a probability. There is no shame in something with an 86% chance of happening, not happening. Rolling snake eyes has a 2.7% chance of happening, but it happens.


Your defense makes no sense. Applying this logic, one could defend basically everything because there is a 'chance of it happening'. Decisions do not work in this way.

In short, they could have been more careful and just put a 60%. I would have been happier with that.
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