In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!
NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Could any of you "debaters" direct me to links that showcase the programs of the two candidates? What they propose to do when elected? Links to communicating platforms on the issues "at stake". That is what should be argued about no?
Or is that a triggering bait request? (the fact that no one discusses substance anymore anywhere at any time and that "what the candidates/parties propose to do" is what the important thing is (vital), as opposed to anything else which is irrelevant). Remind me please, what is the % of voters ?
On November 04 2016 16:48 Laurens wrote: Do polls take voter turnout into account? Like can you answer with "I don't plan to go out and vote"?
I think that's the reason for all Brexit polls being wrong but I didn't really look into it.
Yes, pretty much all the poll numbers you've ever seen anywhere show only the opinions of likely voters. Though that's not determined only by asking people if they plan to vote, there's always significantly more people saying they will vote/have voted than the actual turnout.
Not to be rude, but we're talking about a field with decades of development and you think they somehow missed a thing that is obvious to any layman?
Lol.... there are still turnout factors that are impossible for the pollsters to predict. Couple of examples for Brexit : Glastonbury was on at the same time as polling day.There were no booths to vote at Glastonbury, if you forgot to vote on the way many wouldn't have bothered.Youth polled may have stated they were voting but were not aware of the situation at the event with regards voting.
Weather in London on the day of voting was very poor.This affected turnout, especially for remain.
I'm sure you could think of others - Didn't someone post an article a few pages back claiming public transport in Philadelphia was heavily affected due to a union strike or something? If it's still like that on election day it will have a huge impact on PA and the election.
Saying that with polls shifting 13 points in 8 days like we've just seen I wouldn't put too much faith in them anyway.
On November 04 2016 16:48 Laurens wrote: Do polls take voter turnout into account? Like can you answer with "I don't plan to go out and vote"?
I think that's the reason for all Brexit polls being wrong but I didn't really look into it.
Yes, pretty much all the poll numbers you've ever seen anywhere show only the opinions of likely voters. Though that's not determined only by asking people if they plan to vote, there's always significantly more people saying they will vote/have voted than the actual turnout.
Not to be rude, but we're talking about a field with decades of development and you think they somehow missed a thing that is obvious to any layman?
Well as I said, as far as I know the reason why Brexit polls were wrong had to do with voter turnout. So it would seem that this is not optimally factored in.
On November 04 2016 16:48 Laurens wrote: Do polls take voter turnout into account? Like can you answer with "I don't plan to go out and vote"?
I think that's the reason for all Brexit polls being wrong but I didn't really look into it.
Yes, pretty much all the poll numbers you've ever seen anywhere show only the opinions of likely voters. Though that's not determined only by asking people if they plan to vote, there's always significantly more people saying they will vote/have voted than the actual turnout.
Not to be rude, but we're talking about a field with decades of development and you think they somehow missed a thing that is obvious to any layman?
Lol.... there are still turnout factors that are impossible for the pollsters to predict.
Of course, but what does that have to do with my comment?. The question I answered was 'Do polls take voter turnout into account?', not 'do polls accurately pinpoint turnout in every region/among every demographic?'. And the only answer to the former is yes.
On November 04 2016 16:48 Laurens wrote: Do polls take voter turnout into account? Like can you answer with "I don't plan to go out and vote"?
I think that's the reason for all Brexit polls being wrong but I didn't really look into it.
Yes, pretty much all the poll numbers you've ever seen anywhere show only the opinions of likely voters. Though that's not determined only by asking people if they plan to vote, there's always significantly more people saying they will vote/have voted than the actual turnout.
Not to be rude, but we're talking about a field with decades of development and you think they somehow missed a thing that is obvious to any layman?
Well as I said, as far as I know the reason why Brexit polls were wrong had to do with voter turnout. So it would seem that this is not optimally factored in.
Media don't give a shit. Polls are all about changing perception and supporting a narrative / agenda. They find the one that supports the side they want and then use use that in a silly attempt at influencing people.
On November 04 2016 16:48 Laurens wrote: Do polls take voter turnout into account? Like can you answer with "I don't plan to go out and vote"?
I think that's the reason for all Brexit polls being wrong but I didn't really look into it.
Yes, pretty much all the poll numbers you've ever seen anywhere show only the opinions of likely voters. Though that's not determined only by asking people if they plan to vote, there's always significantly more people saying they will vote/have voted than the actual turnout.
Not to be rude, but we're talking about a field with decades of development and you think they somehow missed a thing that is obvious to any layman?
Well as I said, as far as I know the reason why Brexit polls were wrong had to do with voter turnout. So it would seem that this is not optimally factored in.
They're just guessing. What i do know is that the democrats hoping for Obama levels of Black turnout are going to be very disappointed. Black turnout is down across the board in every state in early voting and appears to be returning to pre-Obama levels.
African-Americans are failing to vote at the robust levels they did four years ago in several states that could help decide the presidential election, creating a vexing problem for Hillary Clinton as she clings to a deteriorating lead over Donald J. Trump with Election Day just a week away.
But in Florida, which extended early voting after long lines left some voters waiting for hours in 2012, African-Americans’ share of the electorate that has gone to the polls in person so far has decreased, to 15 percent today from 25 percent four years ago.
Some black voters, like Ronald Brooks, said they simply needed more time to make a decision this year. It was just easier, Mr. Brooks said, in 2008 and 2012, when he had voted for Mr. Obama.
Mr. Brooks, 31, a mental health worker, was still weighing his options on Tuesday morning. He said he was worried about Mrs. Clinton’s trustworthiness, given that she had set up a private email server as secretary of state. “What were you trying to hide?” he said.
His hesitation reflected a generational divide among African-Americans: Older voters have an affection for Mrs. Clinton and her husband, and a fear of Mr. Trump, that many younger voters do not share.
Basically Trump will win NC, Florida and i don't think even the strongest Hillary supporter sees her winning Ohio anymore. Things are really grim for Clinton right now.
Could any of you "debaters" direct me to links that showcase the programs of the two candidates? What they propose to do when elected? Links to communicating platforms on the issues "at stake". That is what should be argued about no?
Or is that a triggering bait request? (the fact that no one discusses substance anymore anywhere at any time and that "what the candidates/parties propose to do" is what the important thing is (vital), as opposed to anything else which is irrelevant). Remind me please, what is the % of voters ?
Could any of you "debaters" direct me to links that showcase the programs of the two candidates? What they propose to do when elected? Links to communicating platforms on the issues "at stake". That is what should be argued about no?
Or is that a triggering bait request? (the fact that no one discusses substance anymore anywhere at any time and that "what the candidates/parties propose to do" is what the important thing is (vital), as opposed to anything else which is irrelevant). Remind me please, what ist the % of voters ?
This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
All my love, Marina
Youtube video showing the very same Marina Abramovic doing a "spirit cooking" session
On November 04 2016 16:21 Wegandi wrote: Who still takes polls seriously? How many times do they have to be wrong for them to lose credibility?
It depends on the poll/ aggregate/ source/ method and sample used to conduct the poll/ other variables.
Also, polls being "wrong" is a bit of an odd statement to make, as- if done correctly- they'll merely collect current responses (so it's not "wrong" when X% of that poll say they'll vote for Candidate A and Y% of that poll say they'll vote for Candidate B... it just might be misleading if the sample isn't representative of that population). Granted, extrapolating poll results and making future predictions (like Who Will Win?) can be harder to do, but it's all probability anyway. If Hillary currently has a 2/3 chance of winning (or even a 90% chance of winning), she could still lose the election... even if she was that likely to win on Election Day. That doesn't mean any poll saying she was in the lead was wrong probabilistically, nor does it mean that those polls were mishandled or anything of that nature.
On November 04 2016 20:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
I agree that this is truly newsworthy. The brother of Hillary's campaign's chairman is into some weird performance art. Therefore Hillary must be corrupt.
On November 04 2016 20:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
I agree that this is truly newsworthy. The brother of Hillary's campaign's chairman is into some weird performance art. Therefore Hillary must be corrupt.
Never said that she was corrupt just from this one email just that Podesta seems to be into some really weird stuff. I'm guessing the more hardcore christian folks could see it as possibly satanic. Just a hunch but writing words on the walls in blood and mixing human secretions then baking it into cakes is hardly sunday school stuff.I urge you to watch the video and remember this is the same woman in the video who wrote the email.
On November 04 2016 20:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
I agree that this is truly newsworthy. The brother of Hillary's campaign's chairman is into some weird performance art. Therefore Hillary must be corrupt.
Never said that she was corrupt just from this one email just that Podesta seems to be into some really weird stuff. I'm guessing the more hardcore christian folks could see it as possibly satanic. Just a hunch but writing words on the walls in blood and mixing human secretions then baking it into cakes is hardly sunday school stuff.I urge you to watch the video and remember this is the same woman in the video who wrote the email.
You're right, this is huge. Tomorrow we might even find out that Hillary's maid's uncle ate a blood sausage once, what is the world coming to?
On November 04 2016 20:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
I agree that this is truly newsworthy. The brother of Hillary's campaign's chairman is into some weird performance art. Therefore Hillary must be corrupt.
Never said that she was corrupt just from this one email just that Podesta seems to be into some really weird stuff. I'm guessing the more hardcore christian folks could see it as possibly satanic. Just a hunch but writing words on the walls in blood and mixing human secretions then baking it into cakes is hardly sunday school stuff.I urge you to watch the video and remember this is the same woman in the video who wrote the email.
Shocking. I know. I'm sure what his brother does in his free time will greatly influence John Podesta's professional functioning in whatever position he ends up in at the White House.
On November 04 2016 21:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Never said that she was corrupt just from this one email just that Podesta seems to be into some really weird stuff. ...
Which Podesta?
(I suppose one could think that that email implies both of them are involved. Maybe. Even so... you're seriously reaching if this is the most interesting thing to come out of those emails.)
The bias here is pretty damn strong if you don't think smearing words in blood on walls and baking human secretions into cakes wouldn't affect the christian turnout rates and Trump support among dedicated christians.
On November 04 2016 20:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: This "Spirit Cooking" thing is certainly the strangest thing to come out of the wikileaks emails so far.The email received by Tony Podesta (Who then asked his brother John) is from Marina Abramovic who says
From: Marina Abramovic <marinaxabramovic@gmail.com<mailto:marinaxabramovic@gmail.com>> Date: June 28, 2015 at 2:35:08 AM GMT+2 To: Tony Podesta <podesta@podesta.com<mailto:podesta@podesta.com>> Subject: Dinner
Dear Tony,
I am so looking forward to the Spirit Cooking dinner at my place. Do you think you will be able to let me know if your brother is joining?
Everything depends on which context you are doing what you are doing. If you are doing the occult magic in the context of art or in a gallery, then it is the art.If you are doing it in different context, in spiritual circles or private house or on TV shows, it is not art.The intention, the context for what is made, and where it is made defines what art is or not.
EPT
