|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On November 03 2016 22:46 Laurens wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 22:38 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:32 Plansix wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 03 2016 20:40 Logo wrote: [quote]
It's pretty infuriating that our election is basically decided by a group of people's inability to remember three weeks ago. Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? She only contributed to CNN, she still worked for the Democrats during that entire time. You do know that Trump’s former campaign manager works for CNN and is still being paid directly by the Trump camp, right? What do you think the chances are that he leaked information to Trump? But we won’t know because no one seems that interested in hacking Trump’s emails. You should be blaming CNN for tainting their coverage by hiring active political operatives. How does her working for the democrats excuse the treatment of Sanders in the primaries? In case you didn't know, the debate in question is Clinton v Sanders, not Clinton v Trump. Wikileaks has exposed corruption in the past 3 weeks. Idk why you're being so pedantic about it, it's a fact. On November 03 2016 22:35 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 03 2016 20:40 Logo wrote: [quote]
It's pretty infuriating that our election is basically decided by a group of people's inability to remember three weeks ago. Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? I won't be happy until Trump is purged from the unconsciousness of the human mind Well I'm glad we established that. It doesn't make NettleS' post wrong, however. I'm enjoying this concern trolling. It still doesn't change the fact that Trump tied a 13 year old down, anally raped her, and told her he would kill her if she talked. Indeed it doesn't, who made that claim lmao. Don't put words in my mouth pls. It isn't my fault you're defending a rapist pederast. It comes with the territory.
User was temp banned for this post.
|
As much as I don't like Donald Trump, the accusation of him raping the 13yo girl is unproven (yet). Writing it as though it is a proven statement, even if it's to rile up his supporters, is not the right way to bring him down. I really don't like the antic of stooping to the levels of some of his supporters just because you are against him.
|
On November 03 2016 22:34 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +When Bill McAnulty, an elections board chairman in a mostly white North Carolina county, agreed in July to open a Sunday voting site where black church members could cast ballots after services, the reaction was swift: he was labeled a traitor by his fellow Republicans.
"I became a villain, quite frankly," recalled McAnulty at a state board of elections meeting in September that had been called to resolve disputes over early voting plans. "I got accused of being a traitor and everything else by the Republican Party," McAnulty said.
Following the blowback from Republicans, McAnulty later withdrew his support for the Sunday site.
In an interview with Reuters, he said he ultimately ruled against opening the Sunday voting site in Randolph County because he had "made a mistake in reading the wishes of the voters." He declined to discuss the episode further.
This year's highly charged presidential contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump has stoked accusations by both parties of political meddling in the scheduling of early voting hours in North Carolina, a coveted battleground state with a history of tight elections.
In emails, state and county Republican officials lobbied members of at least 17 county election boards to keep early-voting sites open for shorter hours on weekends and in evenings – times that usually see disproportionately high turnout by Democratic voters. Reuters obtained the emails through a public records request.
The officials also urged county election boards to open fewer sites for residents to cast ballots during early voting that began on Oct. 20 and ends on Saturday.
Civil rights advocates and Democrats launched their own campaigns for expanded early voting hours.
The tug-of-war yielded mixed results.
The state did ultimately add nearly 5,900 more hours and 78 more sites to vote early than in 2012. But several counties opened only one polling site during the first week of early voting, slightly denting turnout across the state. Voter turnout dropped by 20 percent in the counties that had multiple polling sites during the first week of early voting in 2012 but just one site during the first week in 2016.“We currently have more early voting locations and hours open than ever were open under Democrat control,” said North Carolina Republican Party executive director Dallas Woodhouse, denying his party was trying to suppress the Democratic vote.
Counties that Democratic President Barack Obama won in 2012 increased their Sunday hours this year by 16 percent, while counties that voted for his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, decreased them by nearly a quarter, the records show.
State Republican officials say keeping polls open during evenings and weekends, or "off-hour" times, drains county resources. Source
These people are the scum of the earth and should be ashamed of themselves if they had any conscience at all.
North Carolina's state government sounds like the biggest group of assholes in the USA.
|
|
On November 03 2016 22:57 JinDesu wrote: As much as I don't like Donald Trump, the accusation of him raping the 13yo girl is unproven (yet). Writing it as though it is a proven statement, even if it's to rile up his supporters, is not the right way to bring him down. I really don't like the antic of stooping to the levels of some of his supporters just because you are against him. It's more likely than not that the Complaint isn't worth the paper that it's written on.
|
On November 03 2016 22:56 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:46 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 22:38 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:32 Plansix wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: [quote] Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? She only contributed to CNN, she still worked for the Democrats during that entire time. You do know that Trump’s former campaign manager works for CNN and is still being paid directly by the Trump camp, right? What do you think the chances are that he leaked information to Trump? But we won’t know because no one seems that interested in hacking Trump’s emails. You should be blaming CNN for tainting their coverage by hiring active political operatives. How does her working for the democrats excuse the treatment of Sanders in the primaries? In case you didn't know, the debate in question is Clinton v Sanders, not Clinton v Trump. Wikileaks has exposed corruption in the past 3 weeks. Idk why you're being so pedantic about it, it's a fact. On November 03 2016 22:35 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: [quote] Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? I won't be happy until Trump is purged from the unconsciousness of the human mind Well I'm glad we established that. It doesn't make NettleS' post wrong, however. I'm enjoying this concern trolling. It still doesn't change the fact that Trump tied a 13 year old down, anally raped her, and told her he would kill her if she talked. Indeed it doesn't, who made that claim lmao. Don't put words in my mouth pls. It isn't my fault you're defending a rapist pederast. It comes with the territory.
Except I'm not defending him. Again, don't put words in my mouth.
|
On November 03 2016 23:01 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:57 JinDesu wrote: As much as I don't like Donald Trump, the accusation of him raping the 13yo girl is unproven (yet). Writing it as though it is a proven statement, even if it's to rile up his supporters, is not the right way to bring him down. I really don't like the antic of stooping to the levels of some of his supporters just because you are against him. It's more likely than not that the Complaint isn't worth the paper that it's written on.
Whether true or not, that is to be determined if and when it goes to court. I won't state that it is true before then, and I won't completely disregard it as I think there is enough evidence to show that Trump has had unwarranted advances on women in his past.
I am always against the concept of stating unproven statements as fact in the hopes that it sticks. That's all.
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
this brazile stuff is pretty nasty but it is also a thing where hrc can show leadership. just ignoring it wont do.
|
On November 03 2016 17:40 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 06:02 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:50 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:46 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:34 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:31 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:23 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:20 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 05:18 Rebs wrote:On November 03 2016 05:16 IgnE wrote: [quote]
1) trump has no chance
2) a coerced choice is not a free choice. you can tell me that voting for clinton is the only moral choice but you can't then tell me it's a free choice I dont follow this.. you're predicating your second point on the idea that by virtue of a choice being moral, it becomes the only choice ? That doesnt seem right. well if you want to be radical about it, there is no such thing as coercion right? even w a gun pointed at my head i can always choose the gun. Actually the only thing thats radical about this is your leap from morality to gun in terms of what determines the choice. I dont see the equivalence here in the argument you are making. equivalence to what? i said "coerced" not a literal gun to the head. because you are so obtuse ill give you a metaphor. if there is only one moral option the choice is coerced by a ghostly gun pointed at your immortal soul. you are only "free" to choose the moral option or choose spiritual death I mean I dont get it still, this is a pretty stupid metaphor, you are saying that an immoral decision will kill your soul/spirit when that really isnt the case. People make immoral decisions more often than they change their pyjamas. I dont see how voting for Drumpf even with the knowledge that the decisions to do so maybe immoral is spiritual death. Anyway lets leave it, I think your reasoning is stupid and we can agree to disagree on it. do you not know what the word coercion means or are you just playing the idiot? Slow down bro, just because i dont agree with your befuddling idea that someone who is making a moral choice is being "coerced" and not just being a normal human being you dont have to occupy some higher intellectual high ground that doesnt exist. Please spare me the "coercion is coercion" and none of us are free bullshit you are peddling. Im out, this discussion is absurd. please spare me the "coercion is not coercion" nitwit. i only occupy higher intellectual ground because you prefer walking in a ditch User was warned for this post At the risk of prolonging a profoundly stupid argument, your dictionary definition does not support your point. Your moral compass is fundamentally you. You having to choose between two shitty choices is not coercion. I recently had to pay 1000 euros to the real estate agent in order to rent the flat we just moved into. We were in a flat, but it had bed bugs. Our choices were to live with bed bugs, or pay 1000 euros to the real estate agent and move to this new flat. There was no coercion. Just a shit deal. The us election is a shitty choice (for most, I guess, some really like one of the two candidates). Nobody is coercing you to vote for HTC. You are simply restricted in your choices, and one choice is awful.
I never understand such amateurish oversimplification.
We vote for 535 congressmen between the house and senate to help shape and write laws. We vote for 1 president to veto some bad laws that don't get enough support. These guys makes the federal laws. We then vote for state governor, state senate, and state representatives that makes the actual laws that americans have to live with day to day. We then vote for local politicians who makes the laws that actually affect the citizen themselves.
And just because 1 of the THOUSANDS of people needed to write that laws that might or might not affect you is not your spirit animal--somehow the sky is falling?
Its like paying to go to a buffet and being upset that one of the options is something you dislike when you're not even required to ever eat that dish.
|
On November 03 2016 22:43 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:38 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:32 Plansix wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 03 2016 20:40 Logo wrote:On November 03 2016 20:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:538 has Hillary's chances at around 2/3 now, an expected drop from when she was increasing steadily during the debates to around 88% chance. With one week left for the FBI and media to post whatever nonsense they want, the probabilities will probably stabilize to around 55-45 in favor of Hillary (unless more drama about Trump is revealed/ Trump says pretty much anything... which would be a benefit for Hillary). If the head-to-head debates actually went into November and people had to continue to watch Clinton crush Trump, then this election would have been a landslide. Unfortunately, it's not: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo It's pretty infuriating that our election is basically decided by a group of people's inability to remember three weeks ago. Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? She only contributed to CNN, she still worked for the Democrats during that entire time. You do know that Trump’s former campaign manager works for CNN and is still being paid directly by the Trump camp, right? What do you think the chances are that he leaked information to Trump? But we won’t know because no one seems that interested in hacking Trump’s emails. You should be blaming CNN for tainting their coverage by hiring active political operatives. How does her working for the democrats excuse the treatment of Sanders in the primaries? In case you didn't know, the debate in question is Clinton v Sanders, not Clinton v Trump. Wikileaks has exposed corruption in the past 3 weeks. Idk why you're being so pedantic about it, it's a fact. On November 03 2016 22:35 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 22:21 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 22:10 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:56 Laurens wrote:On November 03 2016 21:43 Nevuk wrote:On November 03 2016 21:33 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 03 2016 20:40 Logo wrote:On November 03 2016 20:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:538 has Hillary's chances at around 2/3 now, an expected drop from when she was increasing steadily during the debates to around 88% chance. With one week left for the FBI and media to post whatever nonsense they want, the probabilities will probably stabilize to around 55-45 in favor of Hillary (unless more drama about Trump is revealed/ Trump says pretty much anything... which would be a benefit for Hillary). If the head-to-head debates actually went into November and people had to continue to watch Clinton crush Trump, then this election would have been a landslide. Unfortunately, it's not: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo It's pretty infuriating that our election is basically decided by a group of people's inability to remember three weeks ago. Plenty has changed in the past three weeks though. The whole FBI re-opening their investigating thingy, Obamacare premium hikes, wikileaks exposing corruption. Only one of these things actually happened Two. Donna Brazile got fired over the wikileaks revelations. Various other emails show corruption. You can't pretend it didn't happen. That didn't happen in the last two weeks. Alright, the email proving that she leaked debate questions (corruption) surfaced 3 days ago. Happy? I won't be happy until Trump is purged from the unconsciousness of the human mind Well I'm glad we established that. It doesn't make NettleS' post wrong, however. I'm enjoying this concern trolling. It still doesn't change the fact that Trump tied a 13 year old down, anally raped her, and told her he would kill her if she talked. Since when is that a fact?
|
|
I forgot to thank Legallord for that one. I have never been a math person, so I appreciate it when people take the time to break down the higher level stuff for us normal people.
|
On November 03 2016 22:51 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:32 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 22:29 Acrofales wrote:On November 03 2016 21:29 IgnE wrote: @acrofales
imagine you were living in a flat and someone said if you dont move we are going to throw this person in jail. is that coercion? now replace living in a flat w voting for hillary and throwing someone in jail w throwing muslims in jail.
edit: the key to the analysis is that you dont want to vote for hillary. you are compelled by moral force to do something you dont want to do Compelled yes, coerced, no. Unless, as oneofthem argues, you are trying to say that any choice forced upon you by society is coercion, in which case you are using the word for something other than I am. And, as oneofthem also pointed out, your version is quite useless to point out something that is wrong, because in the particular case of voting Hillary over Trump, if you feel "coerced", I believe that coercion is a good thing (and we're back to the definition, because the dictionary definition, albeit not the one you used, always has a negative connotation, and almost all definitions require two acting agents, and not an agent being coerced by his environment/society). you don't think that the apartment scenario i gave is coercion? you are aware that "compel" in english actually has stronnger connotations right? give me an example of coercion then and tell me whats different about your case edit: whether its "good" or bad "bad" is a matter of context and perspective It's subtle, but your simple switches aren't as trivial as you make them out to be. Strategic voting is not a case of coercion. And what is actually happening is a far smaller effect: If you vote for Hillary, you reduce the chance that Trump gets the power to throw muslims in jail by <complicated percentage depending on where you live, and the relative importance of your state in the electoral college>. So to estimate that, lets go with 0.001%, which is probably still a couple of orders of magnitude larger than the effect your actual vote has. We then have: if you don't move flats, there is a 0.001% chance I will throw people in jail, whereas if you do, there is a 0% chance I will throw people in jail. Or if you don't like absolutes, lets go with 33.101% and 33.1% respectively, which is the value from 538. Would you still say you are being coerced to move flats?
so what you are doing here is lessening the coercion by diluting the moral gravity of a vote. if you think votes are probabilistically meaningless, fine, thats a tenable position to hold, but then why are you in the politics thread?
in other words the hypothetical originally went back to my statement that a vote that makes you feel bad is a coerced vote. you are arguing against that by saying, oh well voting doesnt really matter, stop feeling bad over nothing
to which i might reply to a man being coerced to move from his flat: get over it, moving isnt that bad anyway
|
On November 03 2016 23:22 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:51 Acrofales wrote:On November 03 2016 22:32 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 22:29 Acrofales wrote:On November 03 2016 21:29 IgnE wrote: @acrofales
imagine you were living in a flat and someone said if you dont move we are going to throw this person in jail. is that coercion? now replace living in a flat w voting for hillary and throwing someone in jail w throwing muslims in jail.
edit: the key to the analysis is that you dont want to vote for hillary. you are compelled by moral force to do something you dont want to do Compelled yes, coerced, no. Unless, as oneofthem argues, you are trying to say that any choice forced upon you by society is coercion, in which case you are using the word for something other than I am. And, as oneofthem also pointed out, your version is quite useless to point out something that is wrong, because in the particular case of voting Hillary over Trump, if you feel "coerced", I believe that coercion is a good thing (and we're back to the definition, because the dictionary definition, albeit not the one you used, always has a negative connotation, and almost all definitions require two acting agents, and not an agent being coerced by his environment/society). you don't think that the apartment scenario i gave is coercion? you are aware that "compel" in english actually has stronnger connotations right? give me an example of coercion then and tell me whats different about your case edit: whether its "good" or bad "bad" is a matter of context and perspective It's subtle, but your simple switches aren't as trivial as you make them out to be. Strategic voting is not a case of coercion. And what is actually happening is a far smaller effect: If you vote for Hillary, you reduce the chance that Trump gets the power to throw muslims in jail by <complicated percentage depending on where you live, and the relative importance of your state in the electoral college>. So to estimate that, lets go with 0.001%, which is probably still a couple of orders of magnitude larger than the effect your actual vote has. We then have: if you don't move flats, there is a 0.001% chance I will throw people in jail, whereas if you do, there is a 0% chance I will throw people in jail. Or if you don't like absolutes, lets go with 33.101% and 33.1% respectively, which is the value from 538. Would you still say you are being coerced to move flats? so what you are doing here is lessening the coercion by diluting the moral gravity of a vote. if you think votes are probabilistically meaningless, fine, thats a tenable position to hold, but then why are you in the politics thread? in other words the hypothetical originally went back to my statement that a vote that makes you feel bad is a coerced vote. you are arguing against that by saying, oh well voting doesnt really matter, stop feeling bad over nothing to which i might reply to a man being coerced to move from his flat: get over it, moving isnt that bad anyway
If you don't see that there is a difference between "if you don't do X I will shoot you in the head" and "if you don't do X, there is a 0.00000001% chance I will shoot you in the head" I don't know how to continue the discussion further.
Yes, your moral compass is "forcing" you to vote for someone you don't like. No, it is not coercion in any meaningful sense of the word.
|
United States41989 Posts
Igne, your freedom to choose isn't in any way limited by external consequences of those choices. Those are what you are choosing between. If it were then no freedom would exist because any choice will by definition have external consequences. At this point you might as well argue "How am I free to choose between a burger and chicken nuggets if choosing the burger means I won't get chicken nuggets?!?! If that's freedom I'd rather choose death!". The consequences of the choice are what the choice entails, not only do they not make it coercive, they need to exist for the choice to even exist.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 03 2016 22:27 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:10 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 21:58 ChristianS wrote:On November 03 2016 15:09 LegalLord wrote:I'll briefly answer. I guess there's a few questions I still have. If you have two different types of probabilities, one of which is sort of summarized as "if an event has an X % probability, it means that out of 100 trials we would expect that event to occur X times," and the other summarized as "if a proposition has X % probability, it means we can say that proposition is true with X % certainty," that makes some intuitive sense. I guess the latter is still a little unclear to me in exactly what it means; if we say in the Bayesian sense that we're 75% sure Hillary Clinton will win the election, my only intuition for explaining what that number means is to imagine 10,000 parallel universes, and then in 7500 of them, Clinton becomes president. But that's the frequentist approach; It might be that the true result of the election has very little variance, but we're just fairly uncertain what the result will be. So due to our lack of information we estimate a 75% certainty, but if we checked in on our 100,000 possible universes, all 100,000 would go to Clinton. I imagine I'll have to read through some of the philosophy of probability wikis you linked to figure out why that 75% isn't a relatively arbitrary number, then, if you take the frequentist definition away. Basically, if we had 100,000 parallel universes, they will all have the same result. And I'm 75% sure that they will all have Hillary winning, and 24% sure that they will all have Trump winning. That's what the degree of belief is here. Couldn't it factor in both random chance and degree of belief uncertainty? E.g. "I believe Hillary would have an 80% chance to win today, but i knock off another 8% for the chance that the state of the race will change in the next week." So in 100,000 universes maybe I'm 80% certain that 90% go Hillary and 10% go Trump, giving her .9 * .8 = .72 chance? (Not counting the other 20% for simplicity, although i guess you would have to deal with that too) you might think about it this way: if we ran the election 100 times we would expect the same results because the initial conditions are the same every time. in other words everyone is going to vote for who they are going to vote for when they vote and that wont change no matter how many times we run it. in alternate universes with different initial conditions some voters may vote differently based on whatever differences there are between this world and that one bayesian probability belief is a belief about which universe we are in based upon a probability distribution of universes that all share a set of commonalities. it takes account of the fact that the model doesnt know what every single voter is actially going to do (ie the initial state is not completely specified as all real phenomena cannot be) even if we are fairly certain about the general outlines. That assumes a perfectly defined and deterministic universe though. I mean by those assumptions when you roll dice they'll roll the same way every time; if they don't it's because you changed the initial conditions. Isn't it possible for both random chance and degree of belief uncertainty to exist in the same system? I'd say that ultimately that would probably be a Bayesian-logical probability, which happens to incorporate a random result.
Actually I have a really good example for you: the Iowa Democratic primaries. A bunch of committed delegates (13 I think?) were decided by coinflip because they were too close to give to Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton automatically. You could go philosophizing about whether or not coinflips are truly deterministic, but most people would see no problem in treating them as truly random for the sake of mathematical calculation. So that could be a case where you would have random chance added to the outcome.
The issue is actually something a tiny bit more trivial: it's just out of scope of the model that any sane person would use because it's such a trivial factor, and you would lose more power in your model by including it (complexity in a model is bad unless it significantly improves its predictive power). So the statement made about "all parallel universes have the same outcome" is true within the scope of the slightly simplified election scenario that the model is addressing. And if you have a problem with that simplification, I'll just offer the words of the statistician George Box: "all models are wrong, but some are useful."
If you want a frequentist modeling of the election outcome, you can look at the PEC predictions. It's not strictly impossible to take a frequentist approach to this election, it's just IMO really stupid and philosophically intractable.
|
On November 03 2016 22:27 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 22:10 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 21:58 ChristianS wrote:On November 03 2016 15:09 LegalLord wrote:I'll briefly answer. I guess there's a few questions I still have. If you have two different types of probabilities, one of which is sort of summarized as "if an event has an X % probability, it means that out of 100 trials we would expect that event to occur X times," and the other summarized as "if a proposition has X % probability, it means we can say that proposition is true with X % certainty," that makes some intuitive sense. I guess the latter is still a little unclear to me in exactly what it means; if we say in the Bayesian sense that we're 75% sure Hillary Clinton will win the election, my only intuition for explaining what that number means is to imagine 10,000 parallel universes, and then in 7500 of them, Clinton becomes president. But that's the frequentist approach; It might be that the true result of the election has very little variance, but we're just fairly uncertain what the result will be. So due to our lack of information we estimate a 75% certainty, but if we checked in on our 100,000 possible universes, all 100,000 would go to Clinton. I imagine I'll have to read through some of the philosophy of probability wikis you linked to figure out why that 75% isn't a relatively arbitrary number, then, if you take the frequentist definition away. Basically, if we had 100,000 parallel universes, they will all have the same result. And I'm 75% sure that they will all have Hillary winning, and 24% sure that they will all have Trump winning. That's what the degree of belief is here. Couldn't it factor in both random chance and degree of belief uncertainty? E.g. "I believe Hillary would have an 80% chance to win today, but i knock off another 8% for the chance that the state of the race will change in the next week." So in 100,000 universes maybe I'm 80% certain that 90% go Hillary and 10% go Trump, giving her .9 * .8 = .72 chance? (Not counting the other 20% for simplicity, although i guess you would have to deal with that too) you might think about it this way: if we ran the election 100 times we would expect the same results because the initial conditions are the same every time. in other words everyone is going to vote for who they are going to vote for when they vote and that wont change no matter how many times we run it. in alternate universes with different initial conditions some voters may vote differently based on whatever differences there are between this world and that one bayesian probability belief is a belief about which universe we are in based upon a probability distribution of universes that all share a set of commonalities. it takes account of the fact that the model doesnt know what every single voter is actially going to do (ie the initial state is not completely specified as all real phenomena cannot be) even if we are fairly certain about the general outlines. That assumes a perfectly defined and deterministic universe though. I mean by those assumptions when you roll dice they'll roll the same way every time; if they don't it's because you changed the initial conditions. Isn't it possible for both random chance and degree of belief uncertainty to exist in the same system?
yes of course random chance and degree of uncertainty can coexist. how certain are you that that die isn't loaded?
i would argue that any particular future event probability is properly bayesian, even rolling a die. i would say that a properly framed frequentist conception of probability is actually rolling a die a billion times then saying the probability of any particular actual roll was 1/6. then they have an appropriate, very very accurate model for future rolls of the same kind. whats the probability on the very next roll? that is either short hand for "ideal rolls of this kind" (ie exactly 1/6th for any face) or its an actual bayesian inquiry framed by a model with input conditions. in some cases where you can test things over you can get a very accurate bayesian model: the past frequentist probability essentially is slotted in as the bayesian model. maybe that die we are rolling has a very very slight preference for one side that we've discovered in previous tests or whatever.
so i think a lot of this "what is a probability" is about how we use language, in a wittgensteinian sense. what do we actually mean when we talk about a roll of a die? an ideal die? a particular die? a particular die thrown a particular way with a particular face up?
|
http://www.npr.org/podcasts/510310/npr-politics-podcast
Wednesday, November 2 Six days to go. This episode: host/campaign reporter Sam Sanders, campaign reporter Asma Khalid, and congressional correspondent Susan Davis.
For those looking for a professional rundown of the current shifting in the polls and events of the last week, Today’s NPR politics podcast breaks it down. Interestingly they discuss a theory that very little has changed in the race since January and that the demographics have always made this a 3-6 point race.
|
On November 03 2016 23:29 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 23:22 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 22:51 Acrofales wrote:On November 03 2016 22:32 IgnE wrote:On November 03 2016 22:29 Acrofales wrote:On November 03 2016 21:29 IgnE wrote: @acrofales
imagine you were living in a flat and someone said if you dont move we are going to throw this person in jail. is that coercion? now replace living in a flat w voting for hillary and throwing someone in jail w throwing muslims in jail.
edit: the key to the analysis is that you dont want to vote for hillary. you are compelled by moral force to do something you dont want to do Compelled yes, coerced, no. Unless, as oneofthem argues, you are trying to say that any choice forced upon you by society is coercion, in which case you are using the word for something other than I am. And, as oneofthem also pointed out, your version is quite useless to point out something that is wrong, because in the particular case of voting Hillary over Trump, if you feel "coerced", I believe that coercion is a good thing (and we're back to the definition, because the dictionary definition, albeit not the one you used, always has a negative connotation, and almost all definitions require two acting agents, and not an agent being coerced by his environment/society). you don't think that the apartment scenario i gave is coercion? you are aware that "compel" in english actually has stronnger connotations right? give me an example of coercion then and tell me whats different about your case edit: whether its "good" or bad "bad" is a matter of context and perspective It's subtle, but your simple switches aren't as trivial as you make them out to be. Strategic voting is not a case of coercion. And what is actually happening is a far smaller effect: If you vote for Hillary, you reduce the chance that Trump gets the power to throw muslims in jail by <complicated percentage depending on where you live, and the relative importance of your state in the electoral college>. So to estimate that, lets go with 0.001%, which is probably still a couple of orders of magnitude larger than the effect your actual vote has. We then have: if you don't move flats, there is a 0.001% chance I will throw people in jail, whereas if you do, there is a 0% chance I will throw people in jail. Or if you don't like absolutes, lets go with 33.101% and 33.1% respectively, which is the value from 538. Would you still say you are being coerced to move flats? so what you are doing here is lessening the coercion by diluting the moral gravity of a vote. if you think votes are probabilistically meaningless, fine, thats a tenable position to hold, but then why are you in the politics thread? in other words the hypothetical originally went back to my statement that a vote that makes you feel bad is a coerced vote. you are arguing against that by saying, oh well voting doesnt really matter, stop feeling bad over nothing to which i might reply to a man being coerced to move from his flat: get over it, moving isnt that bad anyway If you don't see that there is a difference between "if you don't do X I will shoot you in the head" and "if you don't do X, there is a 0.00000001% chance I will shoot you in the head" I don't know how to continue the discussion further. Yes, your moral compass is "forcing" you to vote for someone you don't like. No, it is not coercion in any meaningful sense of the word.
so are you saying votes are worthless? or are you saying that russian roulette isnt suicide?
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the difference between 538 and various other aggregator-forecasters isn't bayesian modeling but what goes into those models. you have poll based (thin modeling assumptions) and econometric/political structural models that have nonpoll based inputs into their priors.
|
|
|
|