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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3704

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-29 17:04:57
April 29 2016 17:04 GMT
#74061
On April 30 2016 00:54 xDaunt wrote:
One thing that I have taken note of is the high number of women that I know (especially conservative ones) who don't like Cruz. The most common comment that I hear from them is that he is slimy.

Funny, my mother used that exact word, and I agree with it.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
thePunGun
Profile Blog Joined January 2016
598 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-29 17:18:43
April 29 2016 17:06 GMT
#74062
On April 29 2016 13:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Cruz campaign imploding...?



Mindy (Finn? on the bottom left) hits the nail on the head, this whole thing is rigged and none of it will matter. That yelly guy though...what a dabbler. Well now I know, they teach 'propaganda 101'* in Clown College, it's pathetic and almost too painful to watch, love it!

*propaganda 101:
(demonization, emotional and/or patriotic appeals, name calling, etc)
"You cannot teach a man anything, you can only help him find it within himself."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15664 Posts
April 29 2016 17:28 GMT
#74063
Take 3 beautiful women and have them disagree with a flustered chubby white guy. Great way to propaganda your way into shitting on Cruz' image.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-29 17:45:45
April 29 2016 17:45 GMT
#74064
Is that yelling guy a real person? He completely lost it.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 29 2016 17:47 GMT
#74065
The FBI doesn’t know how the hack used to unlock the San Bernardino shooter’s iPhone 5C works, and yet it paid in the region of $1m for the mechanism, which can used again to unlock any other iPhone 5C running iOS 9, according to reports.

Several US government sources told Reuters that the amount paid for the hack, bought from professional hackers, was substantially less than previous reports indicating a value over $1.3m. The technique can also be used as many times as needed without further payments.

The FBI director, James Comey, said last week that the agency paid more to get into the iPhone 5C than he will make in the remaining seven years and four months he has in his job, suggesting the hack cost more than $1.3m, based on his annual salary.

The Justice Department unlocked the iPhone in March with the help of the hackers, leading the FBI to drop its attempt to force Apple to create software to unlock the iPhone 5C, which the company fought, saying it would compromise the security of all iPhones.

The FBI bought a physical mechanism used to unlock the phone, but does not know the details of the hack that makes it work. The identity of the hackers who made it is also such a closely guarded secret within the US law enforcement agency that its director does not know who it is.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 29 2016 17:50 GMT
#74066
On April 30 2016 00:56 LegalLord wrote:
I found that one highly effective technique for being a successful troll is to say provocative things, get people to react in a stupid way that is not good for their cause, and call them out for it in a way that is not good for their cause. It almost always works to undermine the position of the other side. It seems Trump took that idea and implemented it on a much grander scale.

Indeed, none doubt that Trump could be, and maybe is, a masterful troll. Indeed it is the stuff of legend.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 29 2016 17:52 GMT
#74067
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 29 2016 17:53 GMT
#74068
Republican Donald Trump's presidential campaign is planning its next coup: vying for the votes of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) supporters who say they won't back Hillary Clinton in a general election.

"You have two candidates in Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders which have reignited a group of people who have been disenfranchised and disappointed with the way Washington, D.C. and career politicians have run the country," campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told CNN on Friday.

"Bernie Sanders has large crowds – not as large as Mr. Trump's, but large crowds – and so there is a level of excitement there for people about his messaging and we will bring those people in," he also said.

Trump has long claimed his ability to garner support from Democrats and independents, but a recent poll found just 13 percent of Democratic-leaning voters who support Sanders have a favorable view of the outspoken billionaire.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21647 Posts
April 29 2016 17:54 GMT
#74069
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.

Apple doesn't care about the money and they are happy enough with the situation I would imagine.
They are not the ones being asked to compromise their clients and they are still free to develop better encryption methods.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
April 29 2016 17:56 GMT
#74070
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 29 2016 17:57 GMT
#74071
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 29 2016 18:20 GMT
#74072
On April 30 2016 02:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.

That wasn't my point. Its that now there is a crack out there for the phone they have no information on and have no control over. And that will happen over and over every time the FBI needs to get into an iphone that is locked. Their effort to protect the costumers privacy has put that privacy in the hands of an unknown third party.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21647 Posts
April 29 2016 18:26 GMT
#74073
On April 30 2016 03:20 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2016 02:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.

That wasn't my point. Its that now there is a crack out there for the phone they have no information on and have no control over. And that will happen over and over every time the FBI needs to get into an iphone that is locked. Their effort to protect the costumers privacy has put that privacy in the hands of an unknown third party.

As opposed to what?
If Apple had complied with the FBI this third party would still have had their iphone crack, peoples privacy would be in just as bad a place (arguably worse place) then it is now.

How did Apple hand over customer privacy? do tell.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-29 18:44:35
April 29 2016 18:41 GMT
#74074
On April 30 2016 02:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
Republican Donald Trump's presidential campaign is planning its next coup: vying for the votes of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) supporters who say they won't back Hillary Clinton in a general election.

"You have two candidates in Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders which have reignited a group of people who have been disenfranchised and disappointed with the way Washington, D.C. and career politicians have run the country," campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told CNN on Friday.

"Bernie Sanders has large crowds – not as large as Mr. Trump's, but large crowds – and so there is a level of excitement there for people about his messaging and we will bring those people in," he also said.

Trump has long claimed his ability to garner support from Democrats and independents, but a recent poll found just 13 percent of Democratic-leaning voters who support Sanders have a favorable view of the outspoken billionaire.


Source


Every time I see "disenfranchised" used in this way my eye starts reflexively twitching. It's "literally" tier for me (but I'm not sure if it's been officially deemed appropriate to use this way as literally has).

On April 30 2016 03:26 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2016 03:20 Plansix wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.

That wasn't my point. Its that now there is a crack out there for the phone they have no information on and have no control over. And that will happen over and over every time the FBI needs to get into an iphone that is locked. Their effort to protect the costumers privacy has put that privacy in the hands of an unknown third party.

As opposed to what?
If Apple had complied with the FBI this third party would still have had their iphone crack, peoples privacy would be in just as bad a place (arguably worse place) then it is now.

How did Apple hand over customer privacy? do tell.


One could argue that it's less safe to have a public, possibly available-for-purchase hacker crack available with high publicity compared to the government alone having it. I'm not sure where I fall on that argument to be honest.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 29 2016 18:48 GMT
#74075
Exactly. By drawing a line in the sand, Apple removed themselves from the process. And if they are comfortable with that, it is fine. But I am not really sure how my privacy was protected, since the crack exists. And a new one will be made once they update the encryption.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Lord Tolkien
Profile Joined November 2012
United States12083 Posts
April 29 2016 18:49 GMT
#74076
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-a-trump-delegate-1461884907

The Agony of a Trump Delegate
Rules may say they’re bound to The Donald, but many are thinking through their options.


Donald Trump, fresh off his Northeast sweep, declared himself the “presumptive nominee.” He presumes too much.

For all the news of Mr. Trump’s victories and Ted Cruz’s veepmate, the essential action of this GOP contest continues to take place far from the media lights. It’s happening in towns like Harrisonburg, Va., where Republican voters will gather this weekend to pick a slate of delegates for the Cleveland convention. That’s the action that matters, and it’s not going Mr. Trump’s way.

With the media all but anointing the mogul, it’s worth a short primer on presidential nominations, why Mr. Trump is still far from claiming the title, and why (by the way) this is, in fact, democracy in action.

Start with this: The GOP is a collection of 50 state parties. Each gets a voice in choosing who the national party nominates for president. In long-standing deference to states’ rights (a concept conservatives are supposed to revere), the state parties have total control over how they pick delegates to the national convention.

Some states, like Colorado, still do this purely the old-fashioned way. Republicans meet at the precinct level, at the district level, and at the state level, and vote for delegates who will speak for them. This isn’t a “rigged” system, but representative democracy.

Other states think it useful to canvas wider views. They hold what the media call primaries, but what are technically “presidential preference polls.” (Note those words.) In many states, the results of these polls are supposed to bind “delegates” to candidates at the national convention.

Only here’s the rub: Even states with primaries still go through an independent process to elect the actual people who will serve as delegates. The Republicans at these events can still choose whomever they want. And they aren’t electing delegates who personally support Mr. Trump.

Look at Virginia. The Old Dominion held its statewide preference poll (primary) on March 1, and 35% of voters (who included independents and Democrats) preferred Mr. Trump. Some 17% preferred Mr. Cruz. On paper, the delegates are automatically apportioned based on these results.

Yet at the two district conventions so far (in Virginia’s 9th and 10th congressional districts), attendees have elected five delegates who personally support Mr. Cruz and only one who supports Mr. Trump. At the statewide convention in Harrisonburg this weekend, 4,000 attendees will choose another 13 delegates. Cruz supporters will likely dominate.

This is happening across the country, and no surprise. While some attendees at these events are “the establishment”—party officials and operatives—many more are intensely committed GOP activists. These are the people who brought you the tea party, the rebels in the U.S. House, and the cheers for government shutdown.

They are into principle and ideology—and that is Mr. Trump’s problem. Sources suggest to me that of the 950 “Trump” delegates, as many as half despise the former reality-TV star. Meaning that of the 2,472 delegates slated for Cleveland, maybe one-quarter currently want him as the nominee.

But aren’t his delegates “pledged” to vote for him on the first ballot, regardless? A vocal—and growing—faction of delegates is saying they are not. A ringleader is Curly Haugland, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, and a longtime member of the GOP’s rules committee. In an open letter in March, he argued that there was only one convention in history (1976) in which GOP delegates were “bound,” and that this requirement was rescinded in 1980. He says delegates can vote their conscience.

Is he right? What matters is that some delegates think so. Many are unhappy that their state legislatures have imposed “open primaries” that allow independents and Democrats to vote. Many view it as a bedrock constitutional principle that a party retains its right to choose its own nominee. Many are deeply troubled by Mr. Trump. Some are just ornery.

With razor-tight margins, it wouldn’t take much to upturn the convention—even if Mr. Trump does get 1,237 “pledged” delegates. All it would take is a small (potentially very small) bloc of Trump delegates to defect—or simply abstain—that first round. The outrage from Trump supporters would be huge. Then again, many delegates have concluded that outrage from one side or another is inevitable. So pick your poison.

This is why Mr. Trump’s team is now trying to craft a new Trump, one harder for the delegates to overthrow. It’s why Mr. Trump bangs on about rigged elections—to exert public pressure on delegates to stay in line. And it’s the main reason why the coming races matter: Mr. Trump wants to create a sense of inevitability that will further compel “his” delegates to stick. His early success this week in wooing unbound Pennsylvania delegates suggests the pressure may be helping.

Still, if conservative activists are anything these days, they are energized and unpredictable. They are the force to reckon with in this nomination contest. And they, more than the TV stations, are the ones to watch.
"His father is pretty juicy tbh." ~WaveofShadow
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21647 Posts
April 29 2016 18:53 GMT
#74077
On April 30 2016 03:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2016 03:26 Gorsameth wrote:
On April 30 2016 03:20 Plansix wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.

That wasn't my point. Its that now there is a crack out there for the phone they have no information on and have no control over. And that will happen over and over every time the FBI needs to get into an iphone that is locked. Their effort to protect the costumers privacy has put that privacy in the hands of an unknown third party.

As opposed to what?
If Apple had complied with the FBI this third party would still have had their iphone crack, peoples privacy would be in just as bad a place (arguably worse place) then it is now.

How did Apple hand over customer privacy? do tell.


One could argue that it's less safe to have a public, possibly available-for-purchase hacker crack available with high publicity compared to the government alone having it. I'm not sure where I fall on that argument to be honest.

Except that, even if Apple cooperated this other hack would also still exist, if anything you are more secure now then you would otherwise be since this hacker is unlikely to now sell his method on to criminal parties, being known to the FBI an all that. (tho ofc nothing stops someone else from discovering it aswell, but that risk has always existed)
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21647 Posts
April 29 2016 18:56 GMT
#74078
On April 30 2016 03:49 Lord Tolkien wrote:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-a-trump-delegate-1461884907

Show nested quote +
The Agony of a Trump Delegate
Rules may say they’re bound to The Donald, but many are thinking through their options.


Donald Trump, fresh off his Northeast sweep, declared himself the “presumptive nominee.” He presumes too much.

For all the news of Mr. Trump’s victories and Ted Cruz’s veepmate, the essential action of this GOP contest continues to take place far from the media lights. It’s happening in towns like Harrisonburg, Va., where Republican voters will gather this weekend to pick a slate of delegates for the Cleveland convention. That’s the action that matters, and it’s not going Mr. Trump’s way.

With the media all but anointing the mogul, it’s worth a short primer on presidential nominations, why Mr. Trump is still far from claiming the title, and why (by the way) this is, in fact, democracy in action.

Start with this: The GOP is a collection of 50 state parties. Each gets a voice in choosing who the national party nominates for president. In long-standing deference to states’ rights (a concept conservatives are supposed to revere), the state parties have total control over how they pick delegates to the national convention.

Some states, like Colorado, still do this purely the old-fashioned way. Republicans meet at the precinct level, at the district level, and at the state level, and vote for delegates who will speak for them. This isn’t a “rigged” system, but representative democracy.

Other states think it useful to canvas wider views. They hold what the media call primaries, but what are technically “presidential preference polls.” (Note those words.) In many states, the results of these polls are supposed to bind “delegates” to candidates at the national convention.

Only here’s the rub: Even states with primaries still go through an independent process to elect the actual people who will serve as delegates. The Republicans at these events can still choose whomever they want. And they aren’t electing delegates who personally support Mr. Trump.

Look at Virginia. The Old Dominion held its statewide preference poll (primary) on March 1, and 35% of voters (who included independents and Democrats) preferred Mr. Trump. Some 17% preferred Mr. Cruz. On paper, the delegates are automatically apportioned based on these results.

Yet at the two district conventions so far (in Virginia’s 9th and 10th congressional districts), attendees have elected five delegates who personally support Mr. Cruz and only one who supports Mr. Trump. At the statewide convention in Harrisonburg this weekend, 4,000 attendees will choose another 13 delegates. Cruz supporters will likely dominate.

This is happening across the country, and no surprise. While some attendees at these events are “the establishment”—party officials and operatives—many more are intensely committed GOP activists. These are the people who brought you the tea party, the rebels in the U.S. House, and the cheers for government shutdown.

They are into principle and ideology—and that is Mr. Trump’s problem. Sources suggest to me that of the 950 “Trump” delegates, as many as half despise the former reality-TV star. Meaning that of the 2,472 delegates slated for Cleveland, maybe one-quarter currently want him as the nominee.

But aren’t his delegates “pledged” to vote for him on the first ballot, regardless? A vocal—and growing—faction of delegates is saying they are not. A ringleader is Curly Haugland, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, and a longtime member of the GOP’s rules committee. In an open letter in March, he argued that there was only one convention in history (1976) in which GOP delegates were “bound,” and that this requirement was rescinded in 1980. He says delegates can vote their conscience.

Is he right? What matters is that some delegates think so. Many are unhappy that their state legislatures have imposed “open primaries” that allow independents and Democrats to vote. Many view it as a bedrock constitutional principle that a party retains its right to choose its own nominee. Many are deeply troubled by Mr. Trump. Some are just ornery.

With razor-tight margins, it wouldn’t take much to upturn the convention—even if Mr. Trump does get 1,237 “pledged” delegates. All it would take is a small (potentially very small) bloc of Trump delegates to defect—or simply abstain—that first round. The outrage from Trump supporters would be huge. Then again, many delegates have concluded that outrage from one side or another is inevitable. So pick your poison.

This is why Mr. Trump’s team is now trying to craft a new Trump, one harder for the delegates to overthrow. It’s why Mr. Trump bangs on about rigged elections—to exert public pressure on delegates to stay in line. And it’s the main reason why the coming races matter: Mr. Trump wants to create a sense of inevitability that will further compel “his” delegates to stick. His early success this week in wooing unbound Pennsylvania delegates suggests the pressure may be helping.

Still, if conservative activists are anything these days, they are energized and unpredictable. They are the force to reckon with in this nomination contest. And they, more than the TV stations, are the ones to watch.

Can you imagine the shitstorm if Trump secures 51% of delegates and still does not get chosen as the candidate.
Oh this convention has so many possibilities :p
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-29 19:06:21
April 29 2016 18:58 GMT
#74079
On April 30 2016 03:20 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2016 02:56 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
On April 30 2016 02:52 Plansix wrote:
I don't know what Apple expected expect this. Someone is going to make some bank being the sub contractor who breaks every new version of Iphone encryption.


You say this like the FBI was going to pay Apple to open the iphone in the first place and they're losing money.

That wasn't my point. Its that now there is a crack out there for the phone they have no information on and have no control over. And that will happen over and over every time the FBI needs to get into an iphone that is locked. Their effort to protect the costumers privacy has put that privacy in the hands of an unknown third party.


Well for starters I'd be careful about jumping that far down the line. Only the 5C model is vulnerable to this hack, and presumably only the current version of the operating system.

If it was profitable for the hack to be created it didn't really matter whether Apple complied with the order or not. The hack could have been created and sold regardless of Apple's decision.

Apple knows this hack exists and can do something about it. They might not have access to exactly what or how it breaches the iphone, but knowing something exists is half the battle. Fixing security vulnerabilities in code almost always comes from somebody getting in rather than figuring out there is a hypothetical hole you need to fill. Now ideally this is a white hat hacker who tells you what went wrong, but I'm not going to fault Apple in this.

On April 30 2016 03:41 TheTenthDoc wrote:
One could argue that it's less safe to have a public, possibly available-for-purchase hacker crack available with high publicity compared to the government alone having it. I'm not sure where I fall on that argument to be honest.


One could also argue that the more publicity that a security flaw receives, the more likely it is to be patched.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5540 Posts
April 29 2016 19:01 GMT
#74080
On April 30 2016 03:49 Lord Tolkien wrote:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-agony-of-a-trump-delegate-1461884907

Show nested quote +
The Agony of a Trump Delegate
Rules may say they’re bound to The Donald, but many are thinking through their options.


Donald Trump, fresh off his Northeast sweep, declared himself the “presumptive nominee.” He presumes too much.

For all the news of Mr. Trump’s victories and Ted Cruz’s veepmate, the essential action of this GOP contest continues to take place far from the media lights. It’s happening in towns like Harrisonburg, Va., where Republican voters will gather this weekend to pick a slate of delegates for the Cleveland convention. That’s the action that matters, and it’s not going Mr. Trump’s way.

With the media all but anointing the mogul, it’s worth a short primer on presidential nominations, why Mr. Trump is still far from claiming the title, and why (by the way) this is, in fact, democracy in action.

Start with this: The GOP is a collection of 50 state parties. Each gets a voice in choosing who the national party nominates for president. In long-standing deference to states’ rights (a concept conservatives are supposed to revere), the state parties have total control over how they pick delegates to the national convention.

Some states, like Colorado, still do this purely the old-fashioned way. Republicans meet at the precinct level, at the district level, and at the state level, and vote for delegates who will speak for them. This isn’t a “rigged” system, but representative democracy.

Other states think it useful to canvas wider views. They hold what the media call primaries, but what are technically “presidential preference polls.” (Note those words.) In many states, the results of these polls are supposed to bind “delegates” to candidates at the national convention.

Only here’s the rub: Even states with primaries still go through an independent process to elect the actual people who will serve as delegates. The Republicans at these events can still choose whomever they want. And they aren’t electing delegates who personally support Mr. Trump.

Look at Virginia. The Old Dominion held its statewide preference poll (primary) on March 1, and 35% of voters (who included independents and Democrats) preferred Mr. Trump. Some 17% preferred Mr. Cruz. On paper, the delegates are automatically apportioned based on these results.

Yet at the two district conventions so far (in Virginia’s 9th and 10th congressional districts), attendees have elected five delegates who personally support Mr. Cruz and only one who supports Mr. Trump. At the statewide convention in Harrisonburg this weekend, 4,000 attendees will choose another 13 delegates. Cruz supporters will likely dominate.

This is happening across the country, and no surprise. While some attendees at these events are “the establishment”—party officials and operatives—many more are intensely committed GOP activists. These are the people who brought you the tea party, the rebels in the U.S. House, and the cheers for government shutdown.

They are into principle and ideology—and that is Mr. Trump’s problem. Sources suggest to me that of the 950 “Trump” delegates, as many as half despise the former reality-TV star. Meaning that of the 2,472 delegates slated for Cleveland, maybe one-quarter currently want him as the nominee.

But aren’t his delegates “pledged” to vote for him on the first ballot, regardless? A vocal—and growing—faction of delegates is saying they are not. A ringleader is Curly Haugland, an unbound delegate from North Dakota, and a longtime member of the GOP’s rules committee. In an open letter in March, he argued that there was only one convention in history (1976) in which GOP delegates were “bound,” and that this requirement was rescinded in 1980. He says delegates can vote their conscience.

Is he right? What matters is that some delegates think so. Many are unhappy that their state legislatures have imposed “open primaries” that allow independents and Democrats to vote. Many view it as a bedrock constitutional principle that a party retains its right to choose its own nominee. Many are deeply troubled by Mr. Trump. Some are just ornery.

With razor-tight margins, it wouldn’t take much to upturn the convention—even if Mr. Trump does get 1,237 “pledged” delegates. All it would take is a small (potentially very small) bloc of Trump delegates to defect—or simply abstain—that first round. The outrage from Trump supporters would be huge. Then again, many delegates have concluded that outrage from one side or another is inevitable. So pick your poison.

This is why Mr. Trump’s team is now trying to craft a new Trump, one harder for the delegates to overthrow. It’s why Mr. Trump bangs on about rigged elections—to exert public pressure on delegates to stay in line. And it’s the main reason why the coming races matter: Mr. Trump wants to create a sense of inevitability that will further compel “his” delegates to stick. His early success this week in wooing unbound Pennsylvania delegates suggests the pressure may be helping.

Still, if conservative activists are anything these days, they are energized and unpredictable. They are the force to reckon with in this nomination contest. And they, more than the TV stations, are the ones to watch.

The RNC rules committee can make up whatever they want. But if they try something unfair to stop Trump, it'll just be bye-bye GOP.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
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