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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

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Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4999 Posts
April 20 2016 01:46 GMT
#72741
On April 20 2016 10:43 FiWiFaKi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2016 10:39 Introvert wrote:
On April 20 2016 10:33 FiWiFaKi wrote:
On April 20 2016 10:14 Introvert wrote:
Trump is going to have a good couple weeks, question is if he can do well in Indiana.


If he wins Indiana, I think it's more or less a guaranteed win at that point. From California and New Jersey, Trump will get 200~ from New Jersey and California, and he will be at 850 after today, so that's 1050 right there.

April 26th looks like a good day for Trump, he should win all the states, so I'd estimate he'll get 70~ of the 118 delegates (hard to predict due to 54 unbound delegates in Pennsylvania which he is a heavy favorite in), but that'd bring him up to 1120. Lets assume he loses Indiana... I'd be shocked if Trump couldn't get 120 from Nebraska, W.V., Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota (not really sure just how the primaries work in these states).

I don't know why people were painting such a negative picture for Trump.



Because, for one, if he does win CA it won't be a crushing victory, unless it's close in most/every district. He's not going to sweep.


The most recent Cali poll says +18 for Trump, and I think that's demographic that will only improve for him. But I suppose the other ones have been lower, so I can reserve my judgment, but I'd expect him to take 80-90% of the delegates.



That's one poll that doesn't match the rest. Campaigning here hasn't even really begun. Also, there are 53 districts to be won. He can't win all of them, and there are some areas that are less friendly. This state isn't going to go huge for Trump unless something special happens between now and then.

Kasich could very well play spoiler though. But I think by that point in the race his idiocy will be irrelevant.
"But, as the conservative understands it, modification of the rules should always reflect, and never impose, a change in the activities and beliefs of those who are subject to them, and should never on any occasion be so great as to destroy the ensemble."
Leporello
Profile Joined January 2011
United States2845 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-20 01:47:54
April 20 2016 01:46 GMT
#72742
On April 20 2016 09:28 kwizach wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2016 08:15 Leporello wrote:
On April 20 2016 07:39 kwizach wrote:
I have been too busy to post in the last few days, but it looks like recent developments can be summed up as the following:

- Sanders' campaign still barely raises money for down-ballot Democrats, whines about Hillary doing so
- Sanders' campaign whines about how Hillary is raising money through HVF, even though it's Sanders who just received a 270-page letter from the FEC about violations, not Hillary (hers was something like 3-4 pages).
- Sanders' campaign have yet to find any aspect of Hillary's fundraising that isn't legal, and all there is to it is that the Clinton campaign using the current legal framework to beat Republicans instead of the one they wish we lived in -- exactly like Sanders would if he ended up being the nominee
- Sanders whines about long-established voting rules in NY -- how dare Democrats select their own nominee without consulting independents!?
- "Voter suppression" excuses magnifying a thousand times issues that will be due to lack of sufficient organization will be thinly blamed on Clinton and the DNC, through the usual leaps of logic about as rooted in reality as the flying spaghetti monster
- Sanders is still completely unprepared with regards to his own policies:
Q: Have you thought about exactly what your tariff scenario would look like?

A: No. All I will tell you is that the status quo, what exists today, is not acceptable.

How ignorant this guy is about the effects of his own platform is seriously mind-blowing.

This is not to try to bring down Sanders' numbers, because he's going to fall short today yet again with regards to his targets and I have no doubt whatsoever that Clinton will be the nominee, but this primary has been incredibly disappointing. The guy who initially wanted to run a positive campaign has seen his campaign managers and some of his success go to his head, and he's now doing actual damage to the chances of progressives in the general election by going negative against everyone who doesn't support him. To think that he was initially interested in discussing issues, instead of attacking Hillary's integrity non-stop... What a waste. He's still had a positive impact in terms of helping rehabilitate "socialist" ideas and policies, and I'm happy that he ran for that reason, but the nastiness that has become the mark of his campaign lately is truly sad. And he's not even attempting (or barely) to reign in his surrogates and supporters when they go even more negative than his campaign. I still have some hope he's going to do his best to support Hillary once she becomes the nominee, but GOP leaders are already rubbing their hands together at how many dishonest attacks from Sanders they're going to be using against Clinton.

I think this is the tragedy of having two candidates -- you blame anti-Hillary sentiment on Bernie. And that's just too simple.

The fact is people don't like or trust Hillary Clinton, and Bernie has little to do with that. Many liberal-minded people didn't even want her to be Secretary of State. After all, she had zero prior experience in diplomacy.

Her career is built on opportunism. Not just in campaign contributions, but in measures such as the Clinton Foundation, the question isn't who she's taken money from, but rather who hasn't she received money from.

It's a shame Biden isn't running, to clear this false dichotomy. Because as it is now, Clinton supporters have taken this stance that she is the party leader, and any questioning of her character is an assault on the party, and now you've got a singular name and face to blame for that "assault" -- her singular opponent, Bernie.

But it's really not Bernie. If there were other people in the race, such as Biden, maybe you'd see the obvious fact that people have very good reasons to not trust Hillary.

No, anti-Hillary sentiment is very largely the result of 25 years of GOP smears and attacks on her character, with the most recent attacks having the most effect. Saying "the fact is people don't like or trust Hillary Clinton" is meaningless without context. When she left her office of Secretary of State in 2013, Hillary Clinton was at an average favorability rating of +34,8. That was obviously partially the result of her association to Obama, but she was favorably seen throughout her mandate, and she also enjoyed pretty high favorability ratings as senator, with the exception of a relatively short period. This means that there are specific reasons for her drop in favorability since early 2013 -- "people don't like or trust Hillary Clinton" doesn't explain change. And the biggest reason for her drop in favorability has been the relentless character assassination Republicans have been engaging in over Benghazi; plenty of non-partisan reports have shown how deceptive their attacks have been, but they've been extremely effective none-the-less. The GOP then piled on the e-mail "scandal", completely blowing out of proportion an act of carelessness which was not more than that, and which certainly did not mean she was not serious about the job she was doing or the policies she was defending.

This was the state of affairs towards the end of 2015. Clinton's name had been dragged through the mud by Republicans & Fox News (and, to an extent, by others in the media who love a good scandal), and no matter how unjustified the shit that was thrown against the wall was, some of it stuck due to how often it was being repeated.

Enters Bernie. I and others have already extensively documented on this board the increasingly negative turn that his campaign has taken since early March, but some of the attacks on Hillary's character were already being used by many of his supporters and others on the left before that. This was exactly what the right was inciting some on the left to do -- they actively tried to get their traditional opponents to fall for GOP talking points by framing them in a way that would appeal to some on the left, in order to further weaken Hillary as a candidate. Now, is Bernie responsible for the 25 years of smears that Hillary has been facing from the right, and for the outrageous claims some have levied against her on Benghazi in particular? Of course not. But it doesn't change the fact that he has gone increasingly negative on her, and that instead of debating her on the issues like he initially claimed (and sincerely hoped) he would do, he has been attacking her character through dishonest attacks that seek to portray her as corrupt when 1. there is zero evidence of her ever being actually corrupted by any industry, 2. the evidence actually points to the opposite to be true, 3. she does not receive more money from the industries Sanders targets than Obama and plenty others on the left and 4. it is actually easier to make a case for Sanders to have defended the interests of the industries donating money to him, supporting his campaigns, or spending money in his state (the NRA, the dairy industry, the defense industry). Decrying Citizens United and the system in general is perfectly fine. His rhetoric against Clinton in particular isn't.

Hillary Clinton has been fighting for issues she cared about since way before she ever aspired to a public office, let alone the highest public office. I'm absolutely not saying she's perfect -- she has many flaws, and there are several areas on which I disagree with her. I would describe myself as to the left of Sanders, in fact. Yet that doesn't mean I can't recognize baseless character attacks for what they are, and how damaging they could end up being to the Democrats and the progressive cause in general. This election is a historic opportunity for Democrats to make their biggest gains in a long time, and it's a fundamental election to win given the state of the Supreme court membership. It is profoundly egoistical and irresponsible for Sanders to be accusing Hillary of being corrupt and of "stealing the election" -- he knows it's not true, and he's doing it as part of a last-ditch effort to win the nomination. In doing so, he's handing the GOP ammunition they'll happily be using in the general election. It's perfectly fair for Sanders to be still hoping and campaigning to become the Democratic nominee, but it's pathetic for him to be smearing Clinton's character like he currently is.


I gave context, unless you think Christopher Hitchens, speaking in 2008, is a GOP operative? And that's just a small part. I could also point to the 2008 election, which she lost, due to many of the same criticisms being levied at her today.

Bernie is "smearing" Clinton's character with recent attacks?

No, he is saying things people have been saying for over a decade, and not just inside the GOP.

And he really isn't saying them much at all. What's sad is he has run a very decent campaign, and the victim-card response is disheartening. What little criticism he has had against Hillary pales in comparison to what she always had and always will face, and some of it, believe it or not, is justified. Most of his criticisms come in the form of comparison, and he has every right to do that.


Again, this is why I wish Biden was in the race. You'd see the same thing, only you wouldn't have this dichotomy on which to blame Bernie Sanders for making Democrats dislike her. Because blaming Bernie Sanders for "smearing" Hillary is just... it's ignorant. It really is.
Big water
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24109 Posts
April 20 2016 01:46 GMT
#72743
low education voters and young inexperienced voters not registering in time.


Not sure that's how I would describe Ivanka Trump.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
April 20 2016 01:47 GMT
#72744
Are we still expecting Bernie to go till the end or drop out?

He's going to need what, 70% of the popular vote after today to catch Hillary when neglecting super delegates after today?
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
April 20 2016 01:48 GMT
#72745
On April 20 2016 10:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
low education voters and young inexperienced voters not registering in time.


Not sure that's how I would describe Ivanka Trump.


I was comparing the average demographic of Hillary and Bernie supporters, which is more or less a fact. Don't know why you are trying to bring a republican candidates daughter into a comment clearly directed at the democrat primary.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Leporello
Profile Joined January 2011
United States2845 Posts
April 20 2016 01:49 GMT
#72746
I expect Bernie to drop out soon. Maybe this week.

And he'll support Hillary, and hopefully that's enough to slowly bring about the half of the Democrat party that we've all enjoyed vilifying so much.
Big water
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24109 Posts
April 20 2016 01:49 GMT
#72747
On April 20 2016 10:47 FiWiFaKi wrote:
Are we still expecting Bernie to go till the end or drop out?

He's going to need what, 70% of the popular vote after today to catch Hillary when neglecting super delegates after today?


It's not likely to stay 60 - 40, so yeah he's going to continue. I think regardless, he's going to stay in the spot light in case after a couple months of savaging from Trump, Hillary doesn't look like such a strong nominee.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 20 2016 01:52 GMT
#72748
out of state nyu kids cant vote. hahahahahaha
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-20 01:54:11
April 20 2016 01:53 GMT
#72749
[image loading]

From the Sanders subreddit. Lets keep in mind Bernie massively outspent Clinton in NY.
TheFish7
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United States2824 Posts
April 20 2016 01:53 GMT
#72750
Don't count on Bernie dropping out. He just did a rally at Penn State
~ ~ <°)))><~ ~ ~
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24109 Posts
April 20 2016 01:55 GMT
#72751
On April 20 2016 10:53 Mohdoo wrote:
[image loading]

From the Sanders subreddit. Lets keep in mind Bernie massively outspent Clinton in NY.


lol Are they counting the Hillary Victory fund spending on her campaign?

I know you're smart enough to know why that's a silly argument.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 20 2016 01:56 GMT
#72752
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
April 20 2016 01:56 GMT
#72753
On April 20 2016 10:53 Mohdoo wrote:
[image loading]

From the Sanders subreddit. Lets keep in mind Bernie massively outspent Clinton in NY.


Is it ironic that they made it rain on her convoy after the Cllooney dinner
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 20 2016 02:03 GMT
#72754
So apparently Chris Matthews is on drugs or something... wtf is going over at MSNBC...
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
April 20 2016 02:03 GMT
#72755
is NY not winner takes all for Republicans or winner takes most or whatever that means.
WriterXiao8~~
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-20 02:09:53
April 20 2016 02:05 GMT
#72756
On April 20 2016 11:03 Kipsate wrote:
is NY not winner takes all for Republicans or winner takes most or whatever that means.


If you get 50%+ in a district, you get all the delegates for that district. Seems like Trump will get 90-93 of the 95 delegates.

edit: Might be as low as 87~ actually, Kasich doing quite well in several districts where he will likely get 1 delegate.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
April 20 2016 02:06 GMT
#72757
On April 20 2016 10:56 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/JGreenDC/status/722589564066480128


After his New York values comment I don't think this is much of a surprise.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24109 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-20 02:08:09
April 20 2016 02:06 GMT
#72758
On April 20 2016 10:52 oneofthem wrote:
out of state nyu kids cant vote. hahahahahaha


When ~3million NY voters that couldn't participate today gets characterized like this, is there any question why Bernie supporters have been getting turned off by Hillary's camp?

In addition, the Comptroller’s office said about 125,000 voters in Brooklyn alone had turned up to cast ballots only to be informed they were never on the voter rolls, had been removed from the voter rolls or were registered under a different party.

In a letter to Board of Elections director Michael Ryan, Stringer asked for information on polling site operations, voter communication processes, poll worker training and “voter disenfranchisement” related to the voter rolls.

“As a result of today’s reported irregularities, my office will be auditing the management and operations of the Board of Elections in order to identify the failings and make recommendations to improve performance going forward,” Stringer wrote.


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/276879-nyc-comptroller-to-audit-board-of-elections-amid-voter
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 20 2016 02:07 GMT
#72759
On April 20 2016 10:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 20 2016 10:47 FiWiFaKi wrote:
Are we still expecting Bernie to go till the end or drop out?

He's going to need what, 70% of the popular vote after today to catch Hillary when neglecting super delegates after today?


It's not likely to stay 60 - 40, so yeah he's going to continue. I think regardless, he's going to stay in the spot light in case after a couple months of savaging from Trump, Hillary doesn't look like such a strong nominee.

lol what do you mean? winning from behind?
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
April 20 2016 02:07 GMT
#72760
I'm a bit surprised at how many more people voting democrat than republican here.

I know it's NY and all, but damn.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
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