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Now there's an interesting take on the potential Trump presidency: Not enough foreign intervention.
So far, this is my take on the trump general election sales pitch:
- Single payer healthcare - Tariffs added to help American manufacturing - Tariffs removed from other countries so they buy more of our stuff in exchange for our military support - Drastically decreasing foreign soldier presence around the world unless they are paying for it - Ending illegal immigration
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On January 28 2016 01:10 Mohdoo wrote: Now there's an interesting take on the potential Trump presidency: Not enough foreign intervention.
So far, this is my take on the trump general election sales pitch:
- Single payer healthcare - Tariffs added to help American manufacturing - Tariffs removed from other countries so they buy more of our stuff in exchange for our military support - Drastically decreasing foreign soldier presence around the world unless they are paying for it - Ending illegal immigration That's about right. He also wants to modernize the military and bomb the shit out of terrorists.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
trump looks like a democrat plant lol.
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and all of it fueled by the power of xenophobic ranting. The democrats have been doing it wrong all the time!
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On January 28 2016 03:11 Nyxisto wrote: and all of it fueled by the power of xenophobic ranting. The democrats have been doing it wrong all the time!
As Bernie Sanders wins 2016 by a landslide running on a promise to reinstate slavery.
User was warned for this post
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Holy shit Trump can actually win? Oddschecker has him on 50% odds to win GOP nomination. And Hillary is godawful in debates with her blatant insincerity, checking her notes, writing them down all the time, dead eye fake smiling...I mean come on can't she get body language coaches for crying out loud?
I mean it was awesome, I was rooting for trump all the way as an outsider because he's such an amazing entertainer but I wanted him to go as far as possible and lose in the end not win the whole thing - that seems like almost a joke
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On January 28 2016 03:15 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 03:11 Nyxisto wrote: and all of it fueled by the power of xenophobic ranting. The democrats have been doing it wrong all the time! As Bernie Sanders wins 2016 by a landslide running on a promise to reinstate slavery. In America, were all arguments have merit and should be discussed, this would be a talking point in the election.
- Its good for the economy. - It will lower healthcare costs. - It will allow parents to stay home with their children - Smaller class room sizes since you don’t need to educate slaves. - An end to urban blight and run down urban neighbors. - Crime will be much lower due to the lack of legal rights for slaves. - Its illegal in the EU, so it must be good for America
This is a new era of politics and we need new ideas.
LemOn: It should be noted that our ability to predict the Iowa primary and all other primaries is historically TERRIBLE. Like super bad.
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It's pro bookies betting on the whole thing (why Rubio is still second, 2x more likely to win than Cruz) and they don't seem to get skewed by short term 1-2 state polls
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On January 27 2016 17:49 Jibba wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 14:12 Doublemint wrote:On January 27 2016 11:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On January 27 2016 11:20 Mercy13 wrote: I think it would be entertaining if the moderators spend a lot of the debate inviting the candidates to attack Trump while he isn't there to defend himself. They really have nothing to lose, and If nothing else it will piss him off.
And plays right into his hands. The key to becoming a master negotiator like this, Trump wrote, was to “use your leverage.”
“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” he wrote. “That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without.”
But, Trump acknowledged, “that isn’t always the case, which is why leverage often requires imagination, and salesmanship. In other words, you have to convince the other guy it’s in his interest to make the deal.” Donald Trump Shows Fox News the Art of the Tantrum This crap is just meaningless. I absolutely hate that people think Trump is a good business man or negotiator. It's drivel. It's like saying, "In order to win the Indy 500, you're going to need to start the car. There is simply no way to win the Indy 500, without first starting the car and pressing the accelerator." And people with no business or negotiation experience eat that shit up. Skipping the part where we impugn the multibillionaire as a businessman for a second, I've been thinking through Trump's latest thing on the assumption that it is probably more calculated (even if incorrectly calculated) than it might first appear.
I remember he made some stink about an earlier debate, too, right?
Here's what I think's going on: 1) I think he was the last to get a question in debate #6. If he threatened to boycott Monday and then showed up Thursday, the topic on everyone's minds, and one of the fore questions, would probably be "Mr. Trump, oh, you." Making sure he's got attention/focus would be good.
But it actually looks like he won't show up this time.
2) It's the last debate before Iowa and he's polling a head of a large field. The other candidates (mainly Cruz, Rubio) could make gains. But if he's not at this debate, that improvement won't be at his expense. It's like in Final Jeopardy, you don't want to wager so much that if you get it wrong someone else can take first place. Trump would have more to risk in this debate than gain, given the momentum/lead he already has. Now, the chance might be slim of him fucking up this debate if he went, but nevertheless I think that's what's going on, he/his campaign don't think they have anything to gain from this debate, so skip it.
That said, I think these little stunts tend not to work out (in the case of Perot running-not running-then running again, in the case of McCain "suspending" his campaign because of the financial crisis). But in this case it's just one debate, so it seems more tactical, I guess. As always, it'll be interesting to see what happens next.
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On January 28 2016 03:30 LemOn wrote: It's pro bookies betting on the whole thing (why Rubio is still second, 2x more likely to win than Cruz) and they don't seem to get skewed by short term 1-2 state polls Yes, and professional pollsters have said its to close to call or a challenge. They don't even try to predict the outcome of the primary.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-can-really-change-before-iowa-votes/
Bookies have to provide odds, even if those odds are based bad information.
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The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.”
Source
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On January 28 2016 04:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.” Source
Delicious. God I love this so much. This has been such an excellent example of the futility of militia. The federal government will always win. Have as many guns as you want. At the end of the day, you are powerless to the federal government. Dumb rednecks can't do shit.
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On January 28 2016 03:50 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 17:49 Jibba wrote:On January 27 2016 14:12 Doublemint wrote:On January 27 2016 11:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On January 27 2016 11:20 Mercy13 wrote: I think it would be entertaining if the moderators spend a lot of the debate inviting the candidates to attack Trump while he isn't there to defend himself. They really have nothing to lose, and If nothing else it will piss him off.
And plays right into his hands. The key to becoming a master negotiator like this, Trump wrote, was to “use your leverage.”
“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” he wrote. “That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without.”
But, Trump acknowledged, “that isn’t always the case, which is why leverage often requires imagination, and salesmanship. In other words, you have to convince the other guy it’s in his interest to make the deal.” Donald Trump Shows Fox News the Art of the Tantrum This crap is just meaningless. I absolutely hate that people think Trump is a good business man or negotiator. It's drivel. It's like saying, "In order to win the Indy 500, you're going to need to start the car. There is simply no way to win the Indy 500, without first starting the car and pressing the accelerator." And people with no business or negotiation experience eat that shit up. Skipping the part where we impugn the multibillionaire as a businessman for a second, I've been thinking through Trump's latest thing on the assumption that it is probably more calculated (even if incorrectly calculated) than it might first appear. I remember he made some stink about an earlier debate, too, right? Here's what I think's going on: 1) I think he was the last to get a question in debate #6. If he threatened to boycott Monday and then showed up Thursday, the topic on everyone's minds, and one of the fore questions, would probably be "Mr. Trump, oh, you." Making sure he's got attention/focus would be good. But it actually looks like he won't show up this time. 2) It's the last debate before Iowa and he's polling a head of a large field. The other candidates (mainly Cruz, Rubio) could make gains. But if he's not at this debate, that improvement won't be at his expense. It's like in Final Jeopardy, you don't want to wager so much that if you get it wrong someone else can take first place. Trump would have more to risk in this debate than gain, given the momentum/lead he already has. Now, the chance might be slim of him fucking up this debate if he went, but nevertheless I think that's what's going on, he/his campaign don't think they have anything to gain from this debate, so skip it. That said, I think these little stunts tend not to work out (in the case of Perot running-not running-then running again, in the case of McCain "suspending" his campaign because of the financial crisis). But in this case it's just one debate, so it seems more tactical, I guess. As always, it'll be interesting to see what happens next.
#2 is half of it. Trump has been driving ratings for the debates, but that can benefit his opponents as much as it benefits him. By pulling out he not only gets yet another free round of media blitz as pundits breathlessly discuss how crazy it is to pull out of the last debate before Iowa, but reduces the ratings (and thus the impact) of the debate itself.
In addition, this helps create more favorable debates for Trump down the road. Trump is ostensibly skipping what's arguably the most important debate of the primary season just because the network involved took shots at him. If he's willing to do that, he's willing to skip any of the debates to come. The networks are going to have that (and Trump's ratings) in mind when they contemplate doing anything that might anger him.
It's clever, but it can certainly backfire. One of his opponents may make a fantastic showing at the debate, or the ratings may not drop significantly enough for the networks to feel threatened by Trump's petulance (or both!). However, the former doesn't seem likely given all of the debate performances so far, and seeing that historically debate ratings have only been in the 5-7 million range (rather than the 11-18 million range Trump has been enabling) I'd bet the move works out for Trump.
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On January 28 2016 04:54 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 04:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.” Source Delicious. God I love this so much. This has been such an excellent example of the futility of militia. The federal government will always win. Have as many guns as you want. At the end of the day, you are powerless to the federal government. Dumb rednecks can't do shit.
In spirit with the constitution, they should be allowed to own and bear thermonuclear weapons. Otherwise, the second amendment is toothless and pointless.
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Oh Rand Paul has been bumped up to the main stage for the Debate in Trump's absence. So much for more time for the other folks. At least Rand will be there to call their foreign policy stupid.
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Hey GH, I'll take your sigbet on Trump if you'd like and nobody more prominent steps up. If Trump does not get the Republican nomination, you'll have "Greedo shot first." as your signature from the moment he drops out or loses at the convention until Nov 9th. If he does win, name my signature for when Trump mathematically wins until Nov 9th.
As disappointed as I've been with the Republicans over the last 15 years, I still have enough faith that they'll dump Trump. His boycott is a great time to characterize him as a blowhard wimp. He's afraid of a debate with a hostile moderator. He's going to hide behind veterans, yet he wasn't willing to serve. Get the wimp characterization to stick to someone who tries to project power and he'll be done. This boycott opens up the attack and the Republicans need to latch on like a pit bull.
Also, Trump just did the super villain "I am invincible" speech which is usually followed by a major loss.
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On January 28 2016 04:54 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 04:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.” Source Delicious. God I love this so much. This has been such an excellent example of the futility of militia. The federal government will always win. Have as many guns as you want. At the end of the day, you are powerless to the federal government. Dumb rednecks can't do shit. Aren't they kind of not trying? Like, they are splitting up and carrying out formal business. If they actually were trying they would either A) Occupy a meaningful building and bring months of supplies; or B) Be completely anonymous and commit to a guerrilla strategy seamlessly melding in and out of the population (gathering support if people support the cause and getting exposed if they do not).
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On January 28 2016 05:44 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 04:54 Mohdoo wrote:On January 28 2016 04:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.” Source Delicious. God I love this so much. This has been such an excellent example of the futility of militia. The federal government will always win. Have as many guns as you want. At the end of the day, you are powerless to the federal government. Dumb rednecks can't do shit. Aren't they kind of not trying? Like, they are splitting up and carrying out formal business. If they actually were trying they would either A) Occupy a meaningful building and bring months of supplies; or B) Be completely anonymous and commit to a guerrilla strategy seamlessly melding in and out of the population (gathering support if people support the cause and getting exposed if they do not).
It wasn't exactly the full force of the federal government either. A lot of the people there were quoted saying they brought guns for a reason and intended to go down fighting. Over time, that changed. It became obvious that they really had no late game. There was no way they would actually get that land.
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On January 28 2016 05:44 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 04:54 Mohdoo wrote:On January 28 2016 04:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:The remaining members of the armed militia occupying a wildlife refuge in rural Oregon were deciding whether to surrender or stand their ground on Wednesday after officials killed one of their spokesmen and arrested the main leaders of the protest on a remote highway.
Hours after news broke on Tuesday night that law enforcement officials had fatally shot militiaman LaVoy Finicum, an Arizona rancher, and arrested leader Ammon Bundy and seven others, police began setting up blockades around the Malheur national wildlife refuge.
By early Wednesday morning, heavily armed law enforcement officials were blocking access to the refuge, preventing reporters and some Harney County residents from passing through.
Within the wildlife sanctuary, protesters were debating what to do next, according to militia members and supporters in direct communication with the holdouts.
“They arrested all of the leadership,” occupier Corey Lequieu said on Wednesday. “It’s all up in the air.” Lequieu, a Nevada resident who has been at the occupation for weeks, said the protesters who are still at the refuge became increasingly angry and sad as news spread Tuesday that Finicum was killed and that the main militia leaders were behind bars.
“There are some pretty pissed off people,” said Lequieu, who said he was at the refuge Tuesday night but was driving away Wednesday morning. He declined to say where he was headed or if he planned to return.
Lequieu said the militiamen have not yet decided if they plan to turn themselves in but noted that many are devastated by Finicum’s death, which might motivate their next steps. “It was a setup,” he said of the arrests and fatal shooting. “They were waiting to murder him.” Source Delicious. God I love this so much. This has been such an excellent example of the futility of militia. The federal government will always win. Have as many guns as you want. At the end of the day, you are powerless to the federal government. Dumb rednecks can't do shit. Aren't they kind of not trying? Like, they are splitting up and carrying out formal business. If they actually were trying they would either A) Occupy a meaningful building and bring months of supplies; or B) Be completely anonymous and commit to a guerrilla strategy seamlessly melding in and out of the population (gathering support if people support the cause and getting exposed if they do not).
Apart from them being idiots as you pointed out, there's not enough support. It's meaningless. So why try? The only way to get the attention that they need and want would be via martyrdom, and that can backfire relentlessly.
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On January 28 2016 05:36 RenSC2 wrote: Hey GH, I'll take your sigbet on Trump if you'd like and nobody more prominent steps up. If Trump does not get the Republican nomination, you'll have "Greedo shot first." as your signature from the moment he drops out or loses at the convention until Nov 9th. If he does win, name my signature for when Trump mathematically wins until Nov 9th.
As disappointed as I've been with the Republicans over the last 15 years, I still have enough faith that they'll dump Trump. His boycott is a great time to characterize him as a blowhard wimp. He's afraid of a debate with a hostile moderator. He's going to hide behind veterans, yet he wasn't willing to serve. Get the wimp characterization to stick to someone who tries to project power and he'll be done. This boycott opens up the attack and the Republicans need to latch on like a pit bull.
Also, Trump just did the super villain "I am invincible" speech which is usually followed by a major loss.
While it's absolutely the best time to try and undermine Trump I doubt it will happen. The establishment is too fractured to act, and even if they did their candidates have every reason to fight each other rather than Trump. The only candidate who has any incentive to seriously tackle Trump now is Cruz, but he's just as motivated to take shots at Rubio in order to secure Iowa.
The debate will start with everyone, moderators and candidates alike, taking free shots at Trump, but by far most of the debate will be candidates going after one another (especially Rubio).
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