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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44203 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 15:55:42
December 07 2015 15:55 GMT
#52341
On December 08 2015 00:42 ElMeanYo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 00:37 DickMcFanny wrote:
There's three things you need to win an election:

The first one is money,
the second one is money,
and I forget the third one.

Ergo Hillary will win by a landslide.


By that logic... Trump is much richer than Hillary...

Ah, you appear to have misunderstood his point. He meant the things that you can buy with money. Hillary has a shitton of money that she is going to spend. Unless you believe Trump is going to spend down his entire net worth on ads explaining how great he is the net worth isn't really important. Hillary gets to spend other peoples' money, Trump doesn't. Simply having money doesn't actually get you the things, money has to be exchanged for goods and services.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
ElMeanYo
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1032 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 15:59:05
December 07 2015 15:57 GMT
#52342
On December 08 2015 00:55 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 00:42 ElMeanYo wrote:
On December 08 2015 00:37 DickMcFanny wrote:
There's three things you need to win an election:

The first one is money,
the second one is money,
and I forget the third one.

Ergo Hillary will win by a landslide.


By that logic... Trump is much richer than Hillary...

Ah, you appear to have misunderstood his point. He meant the things that you can buy with money. Hillary has a shitton of money that she is going to spend. Unless you believe Trump is going to spend down his entire net worth on ads explaining how great he is the net worth isn't really important. Hillary gets to spend other peoples' money, Trump doesn't. Simply having money doesn't actually get you the things, money has to be exchanged for goods and services.


He can way outspend Hillary if he is willing to use his own money. I suppose it depends on whether he really wants the Presidency or whether he is just trolling everyone (sometimes it seems like the latter).

I'd be willing to bet he could spend a few billion on this election to win and more than make that back with fame and power that comes from being president.

If money was the only prerequsite then Hillary wouldn't stand a chance against Trump.
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.” ― Theodore Roosevelt
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 07 2015 16:00 GMT
#52343
On December 08 2015 00:57 ElMeanYo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 00:55 KwarK wrote:
On December 08 2015 00:42 ElMeanYo wrote:
On December 08 2015 00:37 DickMcFanny wrote:
There's three things you need to win an election:

The first one is money,
the second one is money,
and I forget the third one.

Ergo Hillary will win by a landslide.


By that logic... Trump is much richer than Hillary...

Ah, you appear to have misunderstood his point. He meant the things that you can buy with money. Hillary has a shitton of money that she is going to spend. Unless you believe Trump is going to spend down his entire net worth on ads explaining how great he is the net worth isn't really important. Hillary gets to spend other peoples' money, Trump doesn't. Simply having money doesn't actually get you the things, money has to be exchanged for goods and services.


He can way outspend Hillary if he is willing to use his own money. I suppose it depends on whether he really wants the Presidency or whether he is just trolling everyone (sometimes it seems like the latter).

I'd be willing to bed he could spend a few billion on this election to win and more than make that back with fame and power that comes from being president.

He would need to liquidate his assets to do that. He doesn't have 4.5 billion sitting in accounts. Hilary's money is all liquid assets(not her personal wealth, the campaign donations). Comparing personal wealth in an election, especially if the person owns a business, is silly.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 16:04:56
December 07 2015 16:02 GMT
#52344
Trump is worth something like 2-5 billion (I don't have sources, but google around and that seems to be a likely realistic range, his pronouncements of 9-10 are clearly exaggerated. I'm guessing that the vast majority is tied up in various long term assets. I'd guess Trump has probably under 100M in cash and maybe a few hundred comma commas in stuff he can easy liquidate. So while he could theoretically self-fund a pretty big campaign op, I don't think he'd do it. While Trump's business record isn't that impressive ROI-wise, as a businessman he's not dumb enough to drop a few hundred mill on a vanity campaign.

While being president is lucrative it's not gonna make you that much. Sure the Clintons went from broke to 9 figs, but they're a huge exception. Obama is probably gonna sign a 10M dollar book deal and give 5-6 fig speeches and get random board appointments the rest of his life, but all that is measured in millions. It takes hundreds of millions (billions now) to run a proper campaign.

Ross Perot happened in a very different time with a very different guy.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
December 07 2015 16:08 GMT
#52345
On December 08 2015 00:28 Kickstart wrote:
Bernie's record is quite good. His biggest problem will be selling himself so that people know who he is and his history and record. That could be a better problem to have than the one Trump has, which is that large swaths of the population will never vote for him at all because of the things he has already done and said.

EDIT:
Just want to point out that the Rs are really doing themselves in with their insistence on pandering to the most extreme segments of the base. If you look at the views of populations across america there are many segments that are traditionally very conservative, on both social and monetary issues. If they stuck to such issues and left out the ~25% of their party that are rather extreme, they would do quite well.

The way I always describe it is that too often I see some conservatives be completely wrong on what I would describe as 'easy' issues (mostly referring to social issues), and my line of thought is that if they can be so wrong about issues that are relatively simple, I don't trust them with actual difficult issues like foreign policy.


His record is consistent, not "good". A "good" record would be one that resonates with a large portion of the country. He's too 1-dimensional, sounds like a broken record, appears physically fragile (shouldn't be a big deal, but it is) and just really does not seem capable of appealing to a broad audience. He seems to think that if he can just somehow make people understand what socialist views "actually" are, people will flock. However, in my experience talking to other people, there seems to be a lot of people who don't like it, even when they get it.

It always seems like: "Oh, you don't support me? Well here, let me explain more about the 1%. The 1% is Hitler and we could all make 80k/year if we just regulated wall st"

And it's just like, dude, no, you gotta say some other shit. Talk about normalizing tuition or subsidies or some shit. But saying "I am going to take wall st money and use it for college. problem solved" doesn't inspire confidence.
ElMeanYo
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1032 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 16:13:23
December 07 2015 16:11 GMT
#52346
I think you guys are underestimating how much Trump could round up if he got into a competitive race and wanted to out-spend his opponent. I'm not even talking about his own assets. For all his craziness he's a pretty shrewd businessman and has a lot of connections.
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.” ― Theodore Roosevelt
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 07 2015 16:16 GMT
#52347
From all reports he isn't a shrewd businessman. He started with a lot of money and managed not to lose all of it during his lifetime. And he will have a hard time raising money, since most of the big donors like the Koch brothers are betting against him. Same with Wall Street. TBH, if it was between Trump and Clinton, I think the Koch brothers would back Clinton if pushed to it.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
December 07 2015 16:16 GMT
#52348
Even as they bash Big Oil and push for a strong global climate deal in Paris, Democrats are strongly considering joining forces with congressional Republicans to give the petroleum industry the biggest item on its wish list: an end to the U.S. oil exports ban that has been in effect since the era of disco and bell-bottoms.

The four-decade-old ban has become a crucial bargaining chip during budget talks ahead of a Friday deadline to avoid a government shutdown. Whether the two sides can reach a deal — Democrats are asking for a host of tax credits, including for clean energy, that Republicans have long railed against — is an open question as the negotiations enter the home stretch this week.

What is clear is the talks have scrambled Washington’s energy politics, putting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at odds with the Koch brothers and pitting environmentalists against their Democratic allies.

An end to the ban is "obviously being pushed very hard by McConnell," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a member of her party's leadership. "And there are a couple in our caucus that agree, but the price is very high.”

The topsy-turvy politics of oil exports got that way thanks to a seismic upheaval in energy markets that began soon after Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski went out on a limb in January 2014 as the first congressional Republican to call for an end to federal restrictions on overseas sales of U.S. crude. Most Republicans — shrugging off their usual free-market philosophy — were reluctant to take up any changes to an oil trade policy that might bring voter backlash if it caused gas prices to spike.

But oil prices have plunged from $100 a barrel then to around $40 now, and last week an otherwise strong jobs report showed U.S. drillers in a tailspin. That picture has left some Democrats more open to an exports deal that once seemed unthinkable.

At the moment, though, Democrats’ asking price for lifting the export ban looks higher than the GOP wants to pay. For starters: extending renewable energy benefits, more conservation funding, and a bigger child care tax credit. And that alone won't be enough, a Democratic leadership aide said Friday.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
December 07 2015 16:17 GMT
#52349
On December 08 2015 01:11 ElMeanYo wrote:
I think you guys are underestimating how much Trump could round up if he got into a competitive race and wanted to out-spend his opponent. I'm not even talking about his own assets. For all his craziness he's a pretty shrewd businessman.


And a downright master of rhetoric. I honestly believe he could manage to appeal to democrats. Supports single payer as well as a slew of other "common sense" liberal policies. That's how amazing he is. He supports these things while also gathering the support of the hard right. He's a political genius. He's also an unpredictable sociopath who will say anything to gather support.

He would 100% obliterate Sanders. He would find the perfect stuff to say to completely write off Sanders' policies. It wouldn't all be truthful, genuine, or even moral. But I guarantee you that with some people already being somewhat skeptical of Sanders' policies (even when people agree with him), Trump would be able to frame Sanders' overlying philosophy as misguided, unrealistic, unamerican and just...fringe.
Kickstart
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1941 Posts
December 07 2015 16:18 GMT
#52350
I thought there was some story that if you just took the money that Trump's father 'loaned' him and put it in the stock market, off just the index he would have about the same amount of money he has now. Pretty sure I heard that somewhere, anyone can confirm or link something :S?
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
December 07 2015 16:21 GMT
#52351
^It's true

But you don't need to be Warren Buffet to know that running for prez isn't going to have huge personal ROI if you have to bankroll your own campaign
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
December 07 2015 16:24 GMT
#52352
On December 08 2015 01:17 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:11 ElMeanYo wrote:
I think you guys are underestimating how much Trump could round up if he got into a competitive race and wanted to out-spend his opponent. I'm not even talking about his own assets. For all his craziness he's a pretty shrewd businessman.


And a downright master of rhetoric. I honestly believe he could manage to appeal to democrats. Supports single payer as well as a slew of other "common sense" liberal policies. That's how amazing he is. He supports these things while also gathering the support of the hard right. He's a political genius. He's also an unpredictable sociopath who will say anything to gather support.

He would 100% obliterate Sanders. He would find the perfect stuff to say to completely write off Sanders' policies. It wouldn't all be truthful, genuine, or even moral. But I guarantee you that with some people already being somewhat skeptical of Sanders' policies (even when people agree with him), Trump would be able to frame Sanders' overlying philosophy as misguided, unrealistic, unamerican and just...fringe.

you're drinking too much primary kool-aid, dawg. The past two election cycles (hell, US presidential election cycles generally) have taught us that, crazy race to the ideological bottom notwithstanding, the general election plays out entirely differently than the primary. So yeah, claims of "political genius" are gonna have to wait until, at the very least, Trump gets the Republican nomination.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
December 07 2015 16:27 GMT
#52353
On December 08 2015 01:24 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:17 Mohdoo wrote:
On December 08 2015 01:11 ElMeanYo wrote:
I think you guys are underestimating how much Trump could round up if he got into a competitive race and wanted to out-spend his opponent. I'm not even talking about his own assets. For all his craziness he's a pretty shrewd businessman.


And a downright master of rhetoric. I honestly believe he could manage to appeal to democrats. Supports single payer as well as a slew of other "common sense" liberal policies. That's how amazing he is. He supports these things while also gathering the support of the hard right. He's a political genius. He's also an unpredictable sociopath who will say anything to gather support.

He would 100% obliterate Sanders. He would find the perfect stuff to say to completely write off Sanders' policies. It wouldn't all be truthful, genuine, or even moral. But I guarantee you that with some people already being somewhat skeptical of Sanders' policies (even when people agree with him), Trump would be able to frame Sanders' overlying philosophy as misguided, unrealistic, unamerican and just...fringe.

you're drinking too much primary kool-aid, dawg. The past two election cycles (hell, US presidential election cycles generally) have taught us that, crazy race to the ideological bottom notwithstanding, the general election plays out entirely differently than the primary. So yeah, claims of "political genius" are gonna have to wait until, at the very least, Trump gets the Republican nomination.


I don't support him and I would never vote for him, but there is a reason he was laughed off as a joke for a long time. He's doing the impossible and I think people hate him too much to give him proper credit. My point is that I think Trump can manage to race to the ideological bottom and then turn around and sprint for the center as soon as a general election started. Or he could at least do so 100x better than Sanders. If Trump somehow snatches the nomination from Rubio, we better hope Clinton continues her dominance.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 16:30:47
December 07 2015 16:28 GMT
#52354
Trump needs to win over women, blacks and Hispanics to take the White House. His polling is terrible in those groups. And Sanders is talking about taxing and reforming the banks and other large businesses, who are not well loved in the US in any way. People hate Wall Street almost as much as they hate Congress. People underestimate Sanders to the same amount they over estimate Trump's appeal to the general population.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
December 07 2015 16:32 GMT
#52355
Trump has a huge advantage when it comes to the for the lulz voters, which is a very important demographic to win over
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
December 07 2015 16:33 GMT
#52356
On December 08 2015 01:28 Plansix wrote:
Trump needs to win over women, blacks and Hispanics to take the Whitehouse. His polling is terrible in those groups. And Sanders is talking about taxing and reforming the banks and other large businesses, who are not well loved in the US in any way. People hate Wall Street almost as much as they hate Congress.


I think Sanders' fight against Clinton is a perfect example of how things would go in a general. She's about as wall st as it gets and Sanders still can't even win a primary. Reddit loves to celebrate Sanders' rise, but he is stagnating double digits behind her. She isn't attacking Sanders and she isn't even really fighting wall st at all. She's as establishment as it gets and Sanders still can't even touch her on a national scale. I think your trust in the strength of good ideas is misguided. Proper, well reasoned ideas do not win elections on their own.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 07 2015 16:34 GMT
#52357
On December 08 2015 01:33 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:28 Plansix wrote:
Trump needs to win over women, blacks and Hispanics to take the Whitehouse. His polling is terrible in those groups. And Sanders is talking about taxing and reforming the banks and other large businesses, who are not well loved in the US in any way. People hate Wall Street almost as much as they hate Congress.


I think Sanders' fight against Clinton is a perfect example of how things would go in a general. She's about as wall st as it gets and Sanders still can't even win a primary. Reddit loves to celebrate Sanders' rise, but he is stagnating double digits behind her. She isn't attacking Sanders and she isn't even really fighting wall st at all. She's as establishment as it gets and Sanders still can't even touch her on a national scale. I think your trust in the strength of good ideas is misguided. Proper, well reasoned ideas do not win elections on their own.

You can't win primaries that haven't happened yet. No one can win a primary right now, not even Trump. Because the majority of voters are undecided and won't decide until the primary is closer.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22487 Posts
December 07 2015 16:35 GMT
#52358
On December 08 2015 01:27 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:24 farvacola wrote:
On December 08 2015 01:17 Mohdoo wrote:
On December 08 2015 01:11 ElMeanYo wrote:
I think you guys are underestimating how much Trump could round up if he got into a competitive race and wanted to out-spend his opponent. I'm not even talking about his own assets. For all his craziness he's a pretty shrewd businessman.


And a downright master of rhetoric. I honestly believe he could manage to appeal to democrats. Supports single payer as well as a slew of other "common sense" liberal policies. That's how amazing he is. He supports these things while also gathering the support of the hard right. He's a political genius. He's also an unpredictable sociopath who will say anything to gather support.

He would 100% obliterate Sanders. He would find the perfect stuff to say to completely write off Sanders' policies. It wouldn't all be truthful, genuine, or even moral. But I guarantee you that with some people already being somewhat skeptical of Sanders' policies (even when people agree with him), Trump would be able to frame Sanders' overlying philosophy as misguided, unrealistic, unamerican and just...fringe.

you're drinking too much primary kool-aid, dawg. The past two election cycles (hell, US presidential election cycles generally) have taught us that, crazy race to the ideological bottom notwithstanding, the general election plays out entirely differently than the primary. So yeah, claims of "political genius" are gonna have to wait until, at the very least, Trump gets the Republican nomination.


I don't support him and I would never vote for him, but there is a reason he was laughed off as a joke for a long time. He's doing the impossible and I think people hate him too much to give him proper credit. My point is that I think Trump can manage to race to the ideological bottom and then turn around and sprint for the center as soon as a general election started. Or he could at least do so 100x better than Sanders. If Trump somehow snatches the nomination from Rubio, we better hope Clinton continues her dominance.

He is doing the impossible of being the least crazy man in an insane asylum. I'm sorry but that is not political genius.

He can try to sprint to the center all he wants. That wont stop a million and one previous statements from destroying his chance in the general election.
Has Romney taught you nothing?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
December 07 2015 16:35 GMT
#52359
Hillary is dropping her financial regs platform today, so we'll see how it goes

The NYTimes summary seems like she's gonna go pretty hard on Wall Street.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
December 07 2015 16:44 GMT
#52360
I still suspect Trump's long term goal isn't to win, but to get enough delegates to play kingmaker in the primary, and trade them for something.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
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