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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Adreme
Profile Joined June 2011
United States5574 Posts
September 12 2015 19:31 GMT
#45761
On September 13 2015 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2015 04:19 Adreme wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:31 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:29 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:17 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 02:44 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Can we officially say that Bernie is currently the frontrunner over Hillary?


Can we officially say Taylor Swift is the frontrunner?


I don't get it.

But to be fair, I'm sure Bernie knows what T-swizzle says about the haters

She draws even bigger crowds.


Yeah but she's not in any relevant political polls... obviously. Did you watch the video? It's not about crowds; it's about the polls.


He is winning NH and losing the other first 3 states and getting crushed nationally. In order to be the frontrunner you actually have to bet the one winning and he just isnt. He has some good ideas (some bad ones to) and is good at drawing crowds but you actually have to be winning to be the frontrunner and he just isnt.


He's winning in NH and Iowa.


He has one poll in Iowa that shows him up 1 whereas every other poll has Clinton with 6-10 point lead in Iowa during what will clearly be her weakest moment so while he can win he is far from the frontrunner. Not to mention when Biden gets in a lot of the support he takes from will likely be from Sanders so its going to be even harder to knock her off.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
September 12 2015 19:35 GMT
#45762
Is Bernie doing much, much better than predicted? Yes.

Is he going to beat Hillary? Still probably not.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-09-12 19:56:49
September 12 2015 19:54 GMT
#45763
On September 13 2015 04:31 Adreme wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2015 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 04:19 Adreme wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:31 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:29 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:17 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 02:44 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Can we officially say that Bernie is currently the frontrunner over Hillary?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6mVQ4PLCc8

Can we officially say Taylor Swift is the frontrunner?


I don't get it.

But to be fair, I'm sure Bernie knows what T-swizzle says about the haters

She draws even bigger crowds.


Yeah but she's not in any relevant political polls... obviously. Did you watch the video? It's not about crowds; it's about the polls.


He is winning NH and losing the other first 3 states and getting crushed nationally. In order to be the frontrunner you actually have to bet the one winning and he just isnt. He has some good ideas (some bad ones to) and is good at drawing crowds but you actually have to be winning to be the frontrunner and he just isnt.


He's winning in NH and Iowa.


He has one poll in Iowa that shows him up 1 whereas every other poll has Clinton with 6-10 point lead in Iowa during what will clearly be her weakest moment so while he can win he is far from the frontrunner. Not to mention when Biden gets in a lot of the support he takes from will likely be from Sanders so its going to be even harder to knock her off.


I don't think you can really definitively say that Biden entering (which is looking more and more likely) is going to be a negative for Sanders. I'm pretty sure the only reason ANY polls are showing him leading in Iowa is because of Biden testing the waters and sucking up some of Clinton's support.

For one thing, Biden is infinitely more beatable than Clinton for Sanders should there be a Clinton meltdown and I'm skeptical Biden will even put his foot in the ring without intel suggesting a Clinton meltdown is imminent. For another, anything that fractures the chokehold Clinton has on the establishment endorsements and machinery is a good thing for Sanders. Also, the sheer intensity of Sanderites' love for the man makes me think it's unlikely they'll swap their preferences unless the man keels over.

That said, without a Clinton meltdown I'm still not sure Sanders can pull out more than caucus wins and a couple primary pluralities if he's lucky, with or without Biden in the race.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
September 12 2015 20:49 GMT
#45764
I find NPR's commentary about Rick Perry is pretty on point. The man just had it way too easy and was never prepared for the national stage.

The seeds of calamity for Rick Perry were sown years ago in the fertile political ground that Texas became for the Republican Party.

Perry suspended his campaign for president Friday evening, becoming the first candidate this year to get out of the crowded race for president. It was his second failed bid for the White House after leaving as Texas' longest-serving governor.

But his 14 years as governor, and the ease of his reelections in what became a heavily Republican state, may have been the worst thing that could have happened to Perry. He did not have to do the kind of work that could have better prepared him for the rigors of a presidential campaign.

It didn't have to be this way.


Source
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
September 12 2015 21:13 GMT
#45765
On September 13 2015 04:31 Adreme wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 13 2015 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 04:19 Adreme wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:31 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:29 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On September 13 2015 03:17 cLutZ wrote:
On September 13 2015 02:44 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Can we officially say that Bernie is currently the frontrunner over Hillary?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6mVQ4PLCc8

Can we officially say Taylor Swift is the frontrunner?


I don't get it.

But to be fair, I'm sure Bernie knows what T-swizzle says about the haters

She draws even bigger crowds.


Yeah but she's not in any relevant political polls... obviously. Did you watch the video? It's not about crowds; it's about the polls.


He is winning NH and losing the other first 3 states and getting crushed nationally. In order to be the frontrunner you actually have to bet the one winning and he just isnt. He has some good ideas (some bad ones to) and is good at drawing crowds but you actually have to be winning to be the frontrunner and he just isnt.


He's winning in NH and Iowa.


He has one poll in Iowa that shows him up 1 whereas every other poll has Clinton with 6-10 point lead in Iowa during what will clearly be her weakest moment so while he can win he is far from the frontrunner. Not to mention when Biden gets in a lot of the support he takes from will likely be from Sanders so its going to be even harder to knock her off.


Any poll with Biden in it shows him taking just as much support from Clinton as from Sanders.

And the Iowa poll with Sanders leading is the most recent one.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
Cowboy64
Profile Joined April 2015
115 Posts
September 12 2015 23:15 GMT
#45766
It's not totally accurate to say Bernie Sanders is "winning" in Iowa based off one poll. Better to look at the plurality of polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Sanders is leading in one poll, which although it is the latest poll; another poll from a mere days before ranked Clinton ahead by 28 points. Overall, Clinton is leading by 11.2 points. Bernie Sanders is doing extremely well for his particular position, but he is not really "the forerunner" in any meaningful sense. He's a strong opposition candidate, with good momentum and a high favorability ceiling; but he has yet to overtake Clinton anywhere except New Hampshire. In South Carolina, for example, Clinton is leading by 47.7 points. Nationally, she's ahead by 23.2. Plus there is some reason to believe that she'll get the lion's share of the Biden supporters if he doesn't enter, which is looking more and more likely as time goes by.

Clinton is also ridiculously far ahead in the endorsement race. 300+ to 0 for Bernie. In fact, she has the most commanding lead in endorsements of any non-incumbent candidate in modern history. She's got a much larger war-chest, a much more coordinated staff, and a much longer history on the national stage. For Sanders to beat her would be a massive upset, unprecedented in modern American politics. It would be one of the biggest shifts in the history American politics. In fact, I would argue that Trump becoming the GOP candidate would be less unprecedented than Bernie Sanders becoming the DNC candidate.

All that being said, this is a very strange race, different from any other we've ever seen. It's setting all kinds of records already, so if there was ever a time for major upsets this would be it. And Bernie Sanders is doing very well, so while it's definitely a long-shot, it's not a hopeless bet to put your money on him winning. I'd give him about 15-1 odds. That is assuming none of the scandals surrounding Hillary don't blow up any bigger than they have. If she gets caught in something that sticks, then I'd say Bernie Sanders has a huge chance of becoming the sacrificial nominee.
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
September 13 2015 01:09 GMT
#45767
CNN National poll from earlier this week also had Bernie closing the gap to 10 points nationally, so he's catching up. I agree that he will need to win more minority votes to truly have a chance-- but politics is largely optics; if he can pull out Iowa AND NH somehow, then polls should change drastically almost overnight. This race is far from over.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13925 Posts
September 13 2015 01:47 GMT
#45768
I don't think it would be that much of an upset. The campaign really hasn't started in earnest and momentum can decide everything in primary season. Hillary has terrible likeability numbers and there is a long recent history in scandels that have eroded the publics trust in her.

If bernie can change his platform from a democrat socialist message to a more tony blair new labor third way social democracy reform, or even better an ordoliberalism platform he'll be able to lock down the midwest. Minorities may be the biggest bloc in the blue side of things but there are a lot of points on the board that you can get without the minority votes say the south and midwest were there are more Reagan democrats and blue color union workers still.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 13 2015 02:16 GMT
#45769
A mountain town is standing by to evacuate on Saturday and residents across a huge swath of northern California have been warned of “explosive fire conditions” as a fierce wildfire across more than 100 square miles suddenly intensified.

California governor Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency for the counties experiencing the inferno, as it approaches the town of San Andreas, about 60 miles south-east of Sacramento in the Sierra Nevada region.

Some homes have been engulfed and thousands are threatened with imminent destruction in the path of flames that are spreading over steep landscape.

The gradients help the fires grow by sending heat up slopes and increasing ground temperatures ahead of the flames while making it extremely difficult for the emergency services to tackle the blaze.

A blaze that covered one square mile on Thursday quickly burned more than 100 square miles and was only 5% contained by Friday evening. By Saturday afternoon, firefighters had gained some ground and containment had increased to about 10%, fire officials said.

The gold rush town of San Andreas, with a population of 2,700, had been put under a mandatory evacuation order on Friday. But the fire then changed direction abruptly and people were told merely to prepare to evacuate at short notice.

On Saturday morning the town was once again on the brink of being ordered to empty out as the fire swells rapidly.

“If you see smoke or fire approaching your community, evacuate the area immediately,” Incident commander Phil Veneris of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, known as Cal Fire, warned residents of San Andreas and the surrounding two counties.

The department has warned the region to be prepared for “explosive fire conditions”.

The exact cause of the latest wildfire has yet to be established. But conditions are extremely dangerous as a recent heat wave bringing temperatures in the 90s has added to the intense drought now in its fourth year in California, turning the bone-dry countryside into a massive tinderbox.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
September 13 2015 04:38 GMT
#45770
We had serious wildfire issues over here with only a summer-long dry spell and heat wave.

Can't imagine what it's like in California right now.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
Introvert
Profile Joined April 2011
United States4748 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-09-13 04:51:22
September 13 2015 04:50 GMT
#45771
Media overblows how Californians see these things. We're used to fires, and a "state of emergency" happens regularly. Also, the state is so big that it's still disconnected from most people. The only effect it has is boring people to tears with endless news stories. At least it's that way for me, some people seem to really enjoy endless media coverage of another brown, dead hillside on fire.
"It is therefore only at the birth of a society that one can be completely logical in the laws. When you see a people enjoying this advantage, do not hasten to conclude that it is wise; think rather that it is young." -Alexis de Tocqueville
DickMcFanny
Profile Blog Joined September 2015
Ireland1076 Posts
September 13 2015 10:07 GMT
#45772
Is it true that the surplus of funding for firefighters in 2015 is taken from the budget of preventive measures for 2016?
| (• ◡•)|╯ ╰(❍ᴥ❍ʋ)
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
September 13 2015 14:04 GMT
#45773
As your friendly neighborhood black person I feel obliged to inform yall that Clinton's support from black folks in polls is incredibly shallow. If you actually talk to black people they'll tell you she shouldn't be expecting their vote any more than Sanders.

Also as far as the polls go they mostly miss several sections of Sanders support. Older people who have never/rarely voted, new young voters, Republicans who would rather see him be the dem nominee, and more.

We've already moved passed the "ignore" phase, and we're almost passed the "laughing", by the end of the month (definitely after by the debate) we'll be onto the "fighting".

I just love how Sanders certainly wasn't a favorite going in but after some strong grassroots efforts he's been climbing in the polls since he got in. Whereas when you look at someone like Scott Walker the guy really never even had the slightest chance.

As a Seahawks fan I've seen this dance before. No hate for hopping on the Sanders wagon though, the more the merrier over here.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 13 2015 16:26 GMT
#45774
President Barack Obama’s upcoming White House meeting with Pope Francis will mark the latest chapter in a growing relationship between two men with often-similar priorities. But behind the scenes, Obama aides are working to avoid politicizing the papal visit, even as they hope to capitalize on it.

That will likely mean praising and deferring to Francis, whose calls for action against climate change and mass incarceration dovetail with the president's vision, but taking care not to explicitly link the pope to Obama's legislative agenda. It's the type of balancing act that will affect everything from what policy initiatives Obama announces in conjunction with the papal visit to what gift he gives the popular pontiff.

“There’s been pressure on the administration to make this a political moment, but they’ve rejected that,” said a person familiar with the White House’s planning. “They’re going to not force the narrative that Francis and Obama are political besties.”

Obama has made no secret of his admiration for the pope, whom he first met at the Vatican in March 2014. He has called Francis a "transformative leader" and cited the pope in efforts to promote his own stances on issues, such as alleviating poverty. The president even name-checked Francis in his State of the Union address this year when discussing his administration’s decision to restore ties to Cuba, an initiative the pope helped push through.

The two don’t agree on everything — Francis has not changed the Vatican’s opposition to abortion nor its stance against same-sex marriage. Still, the pontiff’s decision to visit Washington later this month (he also will speak to Congress, among other traffic-stopping events) is largely seen as a boon to the Democratic president.

Administration officials, while declining to offer details, said a papal visit requires different protocols than visits by other high-profile figures. For one thing, Francis is both a head of state and a religious leader, so the planning involves officials who deal with Europe as well as those in the White House Office of Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships. The State Department plays a major role, even offering recommendations on dress (modesty being the theme) for people who get to meet with the pope.

“The visit cuts across traditional policy boundaries within the United States,” a senior administration official said.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
September 13 2015 16:27 GMT
#45775
Never understood why people insist on putting politicians they like up on pedestals.

Bernie Sanders is probably the most progressive contending candidate the US has seen, which is probably a big deal. But pretending that he's more than that is just asking for disappointment.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18826 Posts
September 13 2015 16:44 GMT
#45776
Asking for disappointment and campaigning for an individual candidate oftentimes look one and the same.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-09-13 20:52:11
September 13 2015 20:51 GMT
#45777
The Food and Drug Administration released historic food safety regulations on Thursday that will force food manufacturers to implement major reforms to reduce the risk that their products will make people sick. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 48 million Americans contract a foodborne illness every year, 3,000 of whom end up dying.

The new regulations, which cover packaged and processed foods from applesauce to ziti, stem from the Food Safety Modernization Act that President Barack Obama signed into law in January 2011.

Food safety advocate Sandra Eskin of the Pew Charitable Trusts hailed the release as "a big step forward for food safety and public health."

"For the first time, we have rules that require food processors to take steps to identify risks and do something to reduce them," she said.

The rules, which go into effect in 2016, were notoriously overdue. The FSMA mandated that new standards be released by July 2012, but they were delayed time and time again. In the three years since that deadline, a number of high-profile outbreaks of foodborne illness have been linked to foods that would have been covered by the rules, most notably Blue Bell ice cream and Sunland peanut butter.

Officials from the FDA and the Obama administration's Office of Management and Budget said they needed the extra time to make sure that the rules were written correctly, with input from all stakeholders, given that they make up the biggest overhaul of food safety regulations in a generation. The Grocery Manufacturers Association, which represents many of the companies most affected by the new rules, praised the FDA for the "deliberative and inclusive approach it took in developing these regulations."

The fact that these regulations were released now, rather than even later, is due in part to a lawsuit by the Sacramento-based Center for Food Safety. A district judge in northern California ruled that the FDA had "unlawfully withheld" the rules for too long, ordering the agency to release the regulation on preventive controls for human food -- the one released this week -- by August 30. Technically, the FDA missed even this deadline, but the Center for Food Safety's attorney George Kimbrell said the group was "pleased" that the regulations came in when they did.

"Without our case and it's injunction, no doubt we would still be waiting," Kimbrell told The Huffington Post.

The key measure in the rules is a requirement that food manufacturers write up -- and follow -- detailed plans that identify possible sources of pathogens and establish ways to prevent those pathogens from making it into food. Such plans have been mandated for producers of packaged seafood since 1995, and for juice producers since 2001. The new regulations released this week will require the plans for almost every food found in the middle aisles -- but not the perimeter -- of the grocery store. Meat and dairy products are regulated by the United States Department of Agriculture, rather than the FDA, while fresh produce is governed by a separate FSMA regulation.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
September 14 2015 00:26 GMT
#45778
Hillary Clinton’s deficit among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has grown to more than 20 points, while her lead over Bernie Sanders among likely caucus voters in Iowa has been reversed, according to the first wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton remains ahead in South Carolina, where Joe Biden also makes a strong showing.

IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

The new poll finds Sen. Sanders with 52% support among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while former Secretary of State Clinton, long considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, receives 30%. Recent polls have shown Sanders’ lead growing in the Granite State, but this would be the first to show the Vermont Senator over 50%.

Possibly more worrying for the Clinton campaign is her performance in Iowa, where Sanders now leads by 10 points, with 43% to Clinton’s 33%.


Source
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
ZeaL.
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States5955 Posts
September 14 2015 02:21 GMT
#45779
On September 14 2015 01:27 WolfintheSheep wrote:
Never understood why people insist on putting politicians they like up on pedestals.

Bernie Sanders is probably the most progressive contending candidate the US has seen, which is probably a big deal. But pretending that he's more than that is just asking for disappointment.


I actually went to see Sanders in Greensboro, NC tonight just to see what a political rally is like. Tbh it felt really weird with all the people chanting even before Bernie came on stage, almost cult like? I mean, I'm sure all political rallies have people trying to whip up the crowd but it just felt strange to be that excited about a politician. Maybe it's all the younger folks who are in their first election season and have not been disappointed yet by a politician.

Aside from the crowd, Bernie was a good speaker. Wished he talked a bit more about policy but I guess a political rally is not the place to hear in depth discussion about that kind of stuff. Hard to deliver a message when you have to wait for people to stop cheering every sentence or two.
Chewbacca.
Profile Joined January 2011
United States3634 Posts
September 14 2015 02:32 GMT
#45780
On September 14 2015 11:21 ZeaL. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 14 2015 01:27 WolfintheSheep wrote:
Never understood why people insist on putting politicians they like up on pedestals.

Bernie Sanders is probably the most progressive contending candidate the US has seen, which is probably a big deal. But pretending that he's more than that is just asking for disappointment.


I actually went to see Sanders in Greensboro, NC tonight just to see what a political rally is like. Tbh it felt really weird with all the people chanting even before Bernie came on stage, almost cult like? I mean, I'm sure all political rallies have people trying to whip up the crowd but it just felt strange to be that excited about a politician. Maybe it's all the younger folks who are in their first election season and have not been disappointed yet by a politician.

Aside from the crowd, Bernie was a good speaker. Wished he talked a bit more about policy but I guess a political rally is not the place to hear in depth discussion about that kind of stuff. Hard to deliver a message when you have to wait for people to stop cheering every sentence or two.

Yeah that's pretty much how I feel about it, but I guess maybe if there was actually a politician I liked rather than disliking the least I'd feel the same way.
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