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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1204

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
bookwyrm
Profile Joined March 2014
United States722 Posts
August 06 2014 07:41 GMT
#24061
On August 06 2014 16:27 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 16:20 bookwyrm wrote:
Ah. So if you get some gold coins and bury them in the ground and then you die and they get left there, it's not true, right?

i'm just asking so i understand the idea

Yes, but economists would say that such irrationnal event is statistically irrelevant at the scale of a society.


ha! I wonder if economists ever talk to archaeologists.
si hortum in bibliotheca habes, deerit nihil
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
August 06 2014 07:46 GMT
#24062
On August 06 2014 16:41 bookwyrm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 16:27 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 16:20 bookwyrm wrote:
Ah. So if you get some gold coins and bury them in the ground and then you die and they get left there, it's not true, right?

i'm just asking so i understand the idea

Yes, but economists would say that such irrationnal event is statistically irrelevant at the scale of a society.


ha! I wonder if economists ever talk to archaeologists.

Haha that s a good point ! Neo classical economists belived the economists was an "hard" science (Walras compare it to physics I believe) so history or social science were uninteresting for them.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
August 06 2014 13:39 GMT
#24063
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.
corumjhaelen
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
France6884 Posts
August 06 2014 14:05 GMT
#24064
I don't know what equality you're trying to,write between deposits and banks investments, but it certainly isn't grounded in reality. As for the economy adjusting toward equilibrium, is it anything more than a fairy tale for eco101 ?
‎numquam se plus agere quam nihil cum ageret, numquam minus solum esse quam cum solus esset
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 06 2014 16:30 GMT
#24065
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The national battle over same-sex marriage will resume on Wednesday when a federal appeals court in Cincinnati convenes a special three-hour hearing to consider cases that have worked their way up from lower courts in four different states.

In all of the six cases to be heard, lower court judges have sided with gay rights advocates either by striking down state bans on gay marriage, or by requiring state governments to recognize gay marriages from states where they are legal.

Federal appeals courts play a crucial role in flagging legal issues for potential U.S. Supreme Court review. So all eyes will be on whether or not the Cincinnati court concurs with other courts that have backed gay marriage in the past year.

"The courts that have ruled so far have created a judicial consensus that is striking and almost unprecedented on a civil rights issue," said James Esseks, a lawyer with the American Civil Liberties Union, which backs gay marriage.

Gay marriage opponents do not dispute that, but point out that the U.S. Supreme Court will ultimately decide the issue.

"Everybody knows that regardless of what a particular court rules, this will eventually end up at the Supreme Court," said Austin Nimocks, an attorney with the Alliance Defending Freedom, a conservative group that objects to same-sex marriage.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-08-06 18:31:56
August 06 2014 18:07 GMT
#24066
On August 06 2014 22:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

Show nested quote +
You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.

You don t know what you are talking about. Saying it is because of th equilibrium doesn t quite cut it.
The idea of equilibrium is between offer and demand, and it is the pure and perfect market that create this meeting, you have to build up your theory to link it offer and demand to savings.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 06 2014 19:24 GMT
#24067
Medicare spent more than $30 million in 2012 on questionable HIV medication costs, the inspector general of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said in an investigation published Wednesday.

The possible fraud schemes were all paid for by Medicare's prescription drug program known as Part D. Among the most egregious:

In Detroit, a 77-year-old woman purportedly filled $33,500 worth of prescriptions for 10 different HIV medications. But there's no record she had HIV or that she had visited the doctors who wrote the scripts.

A 48-year-old in Miami went to 28 different pharmacies to pick up HIV drugs worth nearly $200,000, almost 10 times what average patients get in a year. The prescriptions were supposedly written by 16 health providers, an unusually high number.
And on a single day, a third patient received $17,500 of HIV drugs — and none the rest of the year. She got more than twice the recommended dose of five HIV drug ingredients.

The inspector general's report raise new questions about Medicare's stewardship of Part D. A ProPublica series last year showed that Medicare's lax oversight has enabled doctors to prescribe massive quantities of inappropriate medications, has wasted billions on needlessly expensive drugs and exposed the program to rampant fraud. Part D cost taxpayers about $65 billion in 2013.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
August 06 2014 19:46 GMT
#24068
On August 06 2014 23:05 corumjhaelen wrote:
I don't know what equality you're trying to,write between deposits and banks investments, but it certainly isn't grounded in reality. As for the economy adjusting toward equilibrium, is it anything more than a fairy tale for eco101 ?

Money for investments come from savings, and bank deposits are a type of savings. Not sure what reality you're living in where that isn't true!

As for the economy adjusting towards equilibrium, it's of course a true thing. For example, if a bank is awash in savings it will lower rates on deposits and loans. That's also true for the financial system writ large. Lower rates discourage savings and encourage borrowing (and investment!) so as savings pile up rates dive down and bring the situation into equilibrium. That's what makes the zero lower bound important - you can't naturally adjust any further!

Also note that I didn't put a time frame on the adjustment. Adjusting toward equilibrium doesn't mean adjusting in 0.2 seconds. It could certainly take some time and be messy along the way!

On August 07 2014 03:07 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 22:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.

You don t know what you are talking about. Saying it is because of th equilibrium doesn t quite cut it.
The idea of equilibrium is between offer and demand, and it is the pure and perfect market that create this meeting, you have to build up your theory to link it offer and demand to savings.

The above should explain it a bit. As saving increases rates go down to discourage savings and encourage investment.

On the other side of things if investment doesn't increase or saving doesn't decrease due to the lower rates, than income will fall. More savings mean less spending and if investment doesn't fill that gap than income falls. If income falls you have less income to save and so saving will fall as well (paradox of thrift).

So yes, over time the competing forces move towards a balanced state.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
August 06 2014 20:34 GMT
#24069
On August 07 2014 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 23:05 corumjhaelen wrote:
I don't know what equality you're trying to,write between deposits and banks investments, but it certainly isn't grounded in reality. As for the economy adjusting toward equilibrium, is it anything more than a fairy tale for eco101 ?

Money for investments come from savings, and bank deposits are a type of savings. Not sure what reality you're living in where that isn't true!

As for the economy adjusting towards equilibrium, it's of course a true thing. For example, if a bank is awash in savings it will lower rates on deposits and loans. That's also true for the financial system writ large. Lower rates discourage savings and encourage borrowing (and investment!) so as savings pile up rates dive down and bring the situation into equilibrium. That's what makes the zero lower bound important - you can't naturally adjust any further!

Also note that I didn't put a time frame on the adjustment. Adjusting toward equilibrium doesn't mean adjusting in 0.2 seconds. It could certainly take some time and be messy along the way!

Show nested quote +
On August 07 2014 03:07 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 22:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.

You don t know what you are talking about. Saying it is because of th equilibrium doesn t quite cut it.
The idea of equilibrium is between offer and demand, and it is the pure and perfect market that create this meeting, you have to build up your theory to link it offer and demand to savings.

The above should explain it a bit. As saving increases rates go down to discourage savings and encourage investment.

On the other side of things if investment doesn't increase or saving doesn't decrease due to the lower rates, than income will fall. More savings mean less spending and if investment doesn't fill that gap than income falls. If income falls you have less income to save and so saving will fall as well (paradox of thrift).

So yes, over time the competing forces move towards a balanced state.

No ! Your arguments are just flat out wrong. First you state that it is the equilibrium, then you talk about Bank ! In a society with general equilibrium Banks are not even needed since rational agent by themqelves invest their savings : why would you want to pass by a bank if people have enough information to invest by themselves. I was not talking about reality but about the theorical premises behind the idea S = I.
Finally Banks do not invest they loan and take an interest rate, so the savings do not disappear : you trade liquidity for a property right, a debt, that has value (higher than the money given) but is less liquid and has some risk.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-08-06 20:37:17
August 06 2014 20:37 GMT
#24070
Usa and Europe are making a severe mistake with their foreign policy of sanctions against rusia.
Despite everything putin has been a blessing for the west for the past 20 years.
He did the most important thing,keeping rusia stable.
The sanctions are undermining rusia,s economy and with that the position of president putin.
The west feels very confident but this is a very dangerous game,the outcome of rusia faling into chaos is completely unpredictable.
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
August 06 2014 20:42 GMT
#24071
"Money for investments come from savings"

How can people still be so naïve. Money for investments comes from the printing press.
This is not a tinfoil hat theory, this is reality lol.
Almost no one today understands how the system works
bookwyrm
Profile Joined March 2014
United States722 Posts
August 06 2014 20:51 GMT
#24072
On August 06 2014 16:46 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2014 16:41 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 16:27 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 16:20 bookwyrm wrote:
Ah. So if you get some gold coins and bury them in the ground and then you die and they get left there, it's not true, right?

i'm just asking so i understand the idea

Yes, but economists would say that such irrationnal event is statistically irrelevant at the scale of a society.


ha! I wonder if economists ever talk to archaeologists.

Haha that s a good point ! Neo classical economists belived the economists was an "hard" science (Walras compare it to physics I believe) so history or social science were uninteresting for them.


I'm sure the large amounts of hoarded money that we've dug up from antiquity were just placed there by the Devil to deceive us. You know, like dinosaur bones
si hortum in bibliotheca habes, deerit nihil
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
August 06 2014 20:54 GMT
#24073
On August 07 2014 05:37 Rassy wrote:
Usa and Europe are making a severe mistake with their foreign policy of sanctions against rusia.
Despite everything putin has been a blessing for the west for the past 20 years.
He did the most important thing,keeping rusia stable.
The sanctions are undermining rusia,s economy and with that the position of president putin.
The west feels very confident but this is a very dangerous game,the outcome of rusia faling into chaos is completely unpredictable.

On August 07 2014 05:42 Rassy wrote:
"Money for investments come from savings"

How can people still be so naïve. Money for investments comes from the printing press.
This is not a tinfoil hat theory, this is reality lol.
Almost no one today understands how the system works


Says the guy that praises Putin and warns us about Russian "instability"?

Last time I checked, you also are in the camp of, "SOARING INFLATION IS COMING TOMORROW! JUST LOOK AT SHADOWSTATS! OMGWTFBBQ GUYS!!!" I'd ask you how things were going in that world, but as long as we're not literally burning cash for fuel, then "tomorrow" isn't here yet.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 06 2014 21:25 GMT
#24074
President Barack Obama edged up to questioning the Federal Communications Commission's newly proposed net neutrality rules, a heavily criticized plan that would favor Internet content providers that can afford to pay more for faster delivery of their services.

Obama campaigned heavily on net neutrality during his 2008 election, but has been largely silent on the issue since the FCC voted to kill it with new Internet service rules that would create "fast lanes" for content providers that can afford to pay for them; those that can't will be hit with slower traffic.

Obama echoed one of progressives' major criticisms of the new rules at the U.S. Africa Business Forum in Washington on Wednesday, saying he is in favor of "an open and fair Internet."

"One of the issues around net neutrality is whether you are creating different rates or charges for different content providers. That’s the big controversy here," he said. "You have big, wealthy media companies who might be willing to pay more but then also charge more for more spectrum, more bandwidth on the Internet so they can stream movies faster or what have you. And I personally -- the position of my administration, as well as I think a lot of companies here is you don’t want to start getting a differentiation in how accessible the Internet is to various users."

The president said an open Internet will allow for "the next Google or the next Facebook" to enter the arena, and succeed.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
August 06 2014 22:02 GMT
#24075
On August 07 2014 06:25 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
President Barack Obama edged up to questioning the Federal Communications Commission's newly proposed net neutrality rules, a heavily criticized plan that would favor Internet content providers that can afford to pay more for faster delivery of their services.

Obama campaigned heavily on net neutrality during his 2008 election, but has been largely silent on the issue since the FCC voted to kill it with new Internet service rules that would create "fast lanes" for content providers that can afford to pay for them; those that can't will be hit with slower traffic.

Obama echoed one of progressives' major criticisms of the new rules at the U.S. Africa Business Forum in Washington on Wednesday, saying he is in favor of "an open and fair Internet."

"One of the issues around net neutrality is whether you are creating different rates or charges for different content providers. That’s the big controversy here," he said. "You have big, wealthy media companies who might be willing to pay more but then also charge more for more spectrum, more bandwidth on the Internet so they can stream movies faster or what have you. And I personally -- the position of my administration, as well as I think a lot of companies here is you don’t want to start getting a differentiation in how accessible the Internet is to various users."

The president said an open Internet will allow for "the next Google or the next Facebook" to enter the arena, and succeed.


Source

He has no idea what he's talking about, and is likely getting conflicting data from his various advisers.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24156 Posts
August 06 2014 22:10 GMT
#24076
On August 07 2014 07:02 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2014 06:25 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
President Barack Obama edged up to questioning the Federal Communications Commission's newly proposed net neutrality rules, a heavily criticized plan that would favor Internet content providers that can afford to pay more for faster delivery of their services.

Obama campaigned heavily on net neutrality during his 2008 election, but has been largely silent on the issue since the FCC voted to kill it with new Internet service rules that would create "fast lanes" for content providers that can afford to pay for them; those that can't will be hit with slower traffic.

Obama echoed one of progressives' major criticisms of the new rules at the U.S. Africa Business Forum in Washington on Wednesday, saying he is in favor of "an open and fair Internet."

"One of the issues around net neutrality is whether you are creating different rates or charges for different content providers. That’s the big controversy here," he said. "You have big, wealthy media companies who might be willing to pay more but then also charge more for more spectrum, more bandwidth on the Internet so they can stream movies faster or what have you. And I personally -- the position of my administration, as well as I think a lot of companies here is you don’t want to start getting a differentiation in how accessible the Internet is to various users."

The president said an open Internet will allow for "the next Google or the next Facebook" to enter the arena, and succeed.


Source

He has no idea what he's talking about, and is likely getting conflicting data from his various advisers.


Virtually no one who will end up making the decision (politically) will have any idea what it means (technically)
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
August 06 2014 22:17 GMT
#24077
On August 07 2014 05:34 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2014 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 23:05 corumjhaelen wrote:
I don't know what equality you're trying to,write between deposits and banks investments, but it certainly isn't grounded in reality. As for the economy adjusting toward equilibrium, is it anything more than a fairy tale for eco101 ?

Money for investments come from savings, and bank deposits are a type of savings. Not sure what reality you're living in where that isn't true!

As for the economy adjusting towards equilibrium, it's of course a true thing. For example, if a bank is awash in savings it will lower rates on deposits and loans. That's also true for the financial system writ large. Lower rates discourage savings and encourage borrowing (and investment!) so as savings pile up rates dive down and bring the situation into equilibrium. That's what makes the zero lower bound important - you can't naturally adjust any further!

Also note that I didn't put a time frame on the adjustment. Adjusting toward equilibrium doesn't mean adjusting in 0.2 seconds. It could certainly take some time and be messy along the way!

On August 07 2014 03:07 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 22:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.

You don t know what you are talking about. Saying it is because of th equilibrium doesn t quite cut it.
The idea of equilibrium is between offer and demand, and it is the pure and perfect market that create this meeting, you have to build up your theory to link it offer and demand to savings.

The above should explain it a bit. As saving increases rates go down to discourage savings and encourage investment.

On the other side of things if investment doesn't increase or saving doesn't decrease due to the lower rates, than income will fall. More savings mean less spending and if investment doesn't fill that gap than income falls. If income falls you have less income to save and so saving will fall as well (paradox of thrift).

So yes, over time the competing forces move towards a balanced state.

No ! Your arguments are just flat out wrong. First you state that it is the equilibrium, then you talk about Bank ! In a society with general equilibrium Banks are not even needed since rational agent by themqelves invest their savings : why would you want to pass by a bank if people have enough information to invest by themselves. I was not talking about reality but about the theorical premises behind the idea S = I.
Finally Banks do not invest they loan and take an interest rate, so the savings do not disappear : you trade liquidity for a property right, a debt, that has value (higher than the money given) but is less liquid and has some risk.

I didn't state that it "is the equilibrium", I stated that it moved towards an equilibrium, i.e. a state of balance.

My arguments aren't wrong - they're basically the same arguments you made earlier. What I was disagreeing with was the rational actor part of your post. I don't see how that fits into S = I beyond a general justification for assuming away the financial sector, which is common.

Yes, banks don't invest directly (well, not always). The entire financial sector is an intermediary, hence it is often assumed away so that you can get to the "real" economy.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-08-07 14:33:34
August 07 2014 13:22 GMT
#24078
On August 07 2014 07:17 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2014 05:34 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 07 2014 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 23:05 corumjhaelen wrote:
I don't know what equality you're trying to,write between deposits and banks investments, but it certainly isn't grounded in reality. As for the economy adjusting toward equilibrium, is it anything more than a fairy tale for eco101 ?

Money for investments come from savings, and bank deposits are a type of savings. Not sure what reality you're living in where that isn't true!

As for the economy adjusting towards equilibrium, it's of course a true thing. For example, if a bank is awash in savings it will lower rates on deposits and loans. That's also true for the financial system writ large. Lower rates discourage savings and encourage borrowing (and investment!) so as savings pile up rates dive down and bring the situation into equilibrium. That's what makes the zero lower bound important - you can't naturally adjust any further!

Also note that I didn't put a time frame on the adjustment. Adjusting toward equilibrium doesn't mean adjusting in 0.2 seconds. It could certainly take some time and be messy along the way!

On August 07 2014 03:07 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 22:39 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On August 06 2014 15:53 WhiteDog wrote:
On August 06 2014 10:16 bookwyrm wrote:
On August 06 2014 09:27 WhiteDog wrote:
all savings are investment (S = I, note that it is always right in the long run)


Sorry, I don't get why it is always right in the long run, can you explain?

It is right because we die more or less. So the money change hand one day or another. But the real theorical justification for this idea is that economists back then considered that people are "rational agents", so people save money to buy something : what's the point of saving money for itself ? Don't you save for something tomorrow ?
It is a poor theorical point of view, that consider two things criticized since then :
- all people are strong enough in math to evaluate the risk - which suppose that all risks are evaluable (economists gently considered that most economic phenomena follow a normal law since a guy, I believe called Blanchard, said it in early XXth century, there are no knightian uncertainty - uncertainty that you can't predict -, or tail risks - specific risks with a strong change in the value, like the price of an asset going from 1 to 100 in a day - which basically mean that you can accurately predict all risks), so agents don't need savings "in case something happen".
- money in itself has no value and no interests for an agent, it is only an intermediary in exchange (which is why most economic model do not include money in their modelization - think about that a little, that's absurd). You're supposed to acquire money to buy something, so agents don't put money in savings "for itself".

Savings equals investment over the long run because the economy adjusts towards equilibrium. If there's an excess of savings, some other component of the economy (like income) will adjust until saving is back at an appropriate level.

Ex. people put more money in the bank (they save) and the banks lend that money out (investments).

OR people put money in the bank and the bank has no where for the money to go. Less investment means less income, which makes less room for savings, and so saving falls back in line with investment.

I don't see what 'rational agents' or predicting risk has to do with any of that.

You know full well that the curve has no value jonny because that spending was artificially high thanks to the banking system - and you go back to Piketty's point on inequality and capital. Before the crisis the bottom 50% in the income hierarchy spent 110 % of their income : it s debt. The US spending prevented a crisis, but it doesn t mean that agregate demand was OK.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. We all know that before the crisis there was a debt build up, and I pointed out that we shouldn't expect consumption to grow as it did pre-crisis for that very reason.

You don t know what you are talking about. Saying it is because of th equilibrium doesn t quite cut it.
The idea of equilibrium is between offer and demand, and it is the pure and perfect market that create this meeting, you have to build up your theory to link it offer and demand to savings.

The above should explain it a bit. As saving increases rates go down to discourage savings and encourage investment.

On the other side of things if investment doesn't increase or saving doesn't decrease due to the lower rates, than income will fall. More savings mean less spending and if investment doesn't fill that gap than income falls. If income falls you have less income to save and so saving will fall as well (paradox of thrift).

So yes, over time the competing forces move towards a balanced state.

No ! Your arguments are just flat out wrong. First you state that it is the equilibrium, then you talk about Bank ! In a society with general equilibrium Banks are not even needed since rational agent by themqelves invest their savings : why would you want to pass by a bank if people have enough information to invest by themselves. I was not talking about reality but about the theorical premises behind the idea S = I.
Finally Banks do not invest they loan and take an interest rate, so the savings do not disappear : you trade liquidity for a property right, a debt, that has value (higher than the money given) but is less liquid and has some risk.

I didn't state that it "is the equilibrium", I stated that it moved towards an equilibrium, i.e. a state of balance.

My arguments aren't wrong - they're basically the same arguments you made earlier. What I was disagreeing with was the rational actor part of your post. I don't see how that fits into S = I beyond a general justification for assuming away the financial sector, which is common.

Yes, banks don't invest directly (well, not always). The entire financial sector is an intermediary, hence it is often assumed away so that you can get to the "real" economy.

I think I might have understood the problem. We're not talking about the same thing - I'm talking on the theorical basis that supported the idea of I = S. There are two types of equilibrium in economy, theorical equilibrium, being general or partial equilibrium, which is a specific point in which offer and demand are equal on a market, and there's accounting equilibrium - equilibrium that are always right from a pure accountability standpoint. From the accounting standpoint, which I believe is what you were talking about, I = S because Y (=Total output = total income = total expenditure) = C (consumption) + S (savings) = C + I so S = I (by the way, that kind of macroeconomic point of view is post keynesian - and in fact almost entirely keynesian).

From a theorical standpoint (which is what I was discussing) economists believed that savings were like delayed consumption. It is an assumption, an axiom of the theory, on the behavior of agents : they don't save money just for money, but for future consumption (note this theory appeared at a time when no social security, no pension system, no or almost no loan or with a high interest rate) since money has no value in itself (the ideas of the classical dichotomy, "monetary veil", and the neutrality of the money) and purchasing a thing that has no value is unrational.
It is by criticizing both the idea of the classical dichotomy (people want money for itself, what Keynes call "liquidity preference") and the idea of risk assertion (the future is always uncertain for Keynes) that Keynes complexify the matter.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Yoav
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1874 Posts
August 07 2014 14:30 GMT
#24079
On August 07 2014 05:37 Rassy wrote:
Usa and Europe are making a severe mistake with their foreign policy of sanctions against rusia.
Despite everything putin has been a blessing for the west for the past 20 years.
He did the most important thing,keeping rusia stable.
The sanctions are undermining rusia,s economy and with that the position of president putin.
The west feels very confident but this is a very dangerous game,the outcome of rusia faling into chaos is completely unpredictable.


I'm sure the problem with Russia is that our sanctions will hit it too hard. Poor guys, we should give them some slack; every big country should get to annex territory from smaller ones occasionally. And shoot down civilian jetlinners.
NovaTheFeared
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States7232 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-08-07 15:31:19
August 07 2014 15:30 GMT
#24080
On August 07 2014 05:37 Rassy wrote:
Usa and Europe are making a severe mistake with their foreign policy of sanctions against rusia.
Despite everything putin has been a blessing for the west for the past 20 years.
He did the most important thing,keeping rusia stable.
The sanctions are undermining rusia,s economy and with that the position of president putin.
The west feels very confident but this is a very dangerous game,the outcome of rusia faling into chaos is completely unpredictable.


You might have a point about this if real sanctions are imposed. Like the ones against Iran which led to a massive devaluation of their currency. The sanctions the west imposed were so weak Russia feels free to announce retaliatory sanctions that also hurt its own economy. I read an NYT article that said analysts expect inflation to increase 1-2%. That'll be worrying for them, but not destabilizing. Which is kind of the point.
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