EPT
[SSL Autumn] Ro8 Day 3
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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prosatan
Romania8312 Posts
LB on Rush but i am rooting for Rain  | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
Come on Rain! | ||
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kodecopas
Peru17 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 15:23 kodecopas wrote: Rain 3 : Rush 2 The format's been changed to Bo7. | ||
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
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angry_maia
319 Posts
edit: yes KSL season 3 rain 3-1 sharp. | ||
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Zergxhx
China168 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 18:58 angry_maia wrote: Has rain ever beaten a terran in ASL/KSL in ro8+? I don't remember edit: yes KSL season 3 rain 3-1 sharp. KSL2 Light 3-1 Leta 3-0 KSL3 Last 3-1 Sharp 3-1 Edit: And this is the series he's lost. It's all rather a long time ago now though. ASL13 Light 0-4 KSL4 Light 2-4 ASL8 Flash 0-3 ASL7 Last 2-3 KSL2 Sharp 3-4 | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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TornadoSteve
1070 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
Rush pulls against 12 nexus, but Rain holds with a cannon. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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ggsimida
1148 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
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ggsimida
1148 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:34 BLinD-RawR wrote: Minstrel just too tough for TvP To be fair, I don't think the map had anything to do with the failed SCV pull against 12-nexus. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:35 Simplistik wrote: To be fair, I don't think the map had anything to do with the failed SCV pull against 12-nexus. I missed the start, but the fact that rush tried it kinda proves my point | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:38 BLinD-RawR wrote: I missed the start, but the fact that rush tried it kinda proves my point Ah, I see. Like going 2-port on 76. | ||
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gravity
Australia1937 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21829 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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gravity
Australia1937 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:03 gravity wrote: So far Rain has had better decision making despite somewhat poor control. for these many tanks the room for error is so small, you can forgive it. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21829 Posts
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4211 Posts
The hope is real. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:05 Gorsameth wrote: turns out you can't sit and do nothing while protoss claims 3/4th of the map. he was moving across the map for the top right bases and just stopped and turned around because 6 was getting harassed. that 6 o clock base was a crutch to Rush. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21829 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:07 BLinD-RawR wrote: yeah but to me he already lost the game at that point. Protoss was already all around the map, which makes it so hard to defend and push when you expand towards the protoss. Feels like Rush needed to be more pro-active before Protoss got to like 7 bases.he was moving across the map for the top right bases and just stopped and turned around because 6 was getting harassed. that 6 o clock base was a crutch to Rush. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:10 Gorsameth wrote: yeah but to me he already lost the game at that point. Protoss was already all around the map, which makes it so hard to defend and push when you expand towards the protoss. Feels like Rush needed to be more pro-active before Protoss got to like 7 bases. not going to disagree that he has to be more proactive in general but in TvP, protoss being up that many bases doesn't mean much because the mech army can steamroll those bases pretty fast and rush had that army. I was certain rain would lose the top right to that mech army but he was distracted by 6 that he just couldn't commit to it. | ||
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TMNT
2864 Posts
If you have ever played the game in that scenario or even just watched it from a FP point of view, you'd understand how clueless Protoss is when it comes to where the tanks and mines spread. Remember the players don't have observer vision like you. Plus it's played at an insanely hectic pace. Only an AI can control that without looking clumsy. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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gravity
Australia1937 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:23 gravity wrote: What's the purpose of the neutral sunken colonies on this map? when a zerg player spawns the creep connects and spreads so that they can build sunken at the choke. | ||
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gravity
Australia1937 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:25 Kaal wrote: when a zerg player spawns the creep connects and spreads so that they can build sunken at the choke. Ah cool | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:19 TMNT wrote: I'm not sure how we can say Rain's control that game is poor. It's as good as any Protoss on earth bar Snow can do. If you have ever played the game in that scenario or even just watched it from a FP point of view, you'd understand how clueless Protoss is when it comes to where the tanks and mines spread. Remember the players don't have observer vision like you. Plus it's played at an insanely hectic pace. Only an AI can control that without looking clumsy. I was thinking mainly about some of the early reaver work. Executing big attacks and the storms were fine. | ||
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Highgamer
1432 Posts
Did Rain do something special in his build? To be a few seconds early? | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13154 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2516 Posts
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ggsimida
1148 Posts
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:18 TornadoSteve wrote: Rush 4-0  | ||
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SCRVN
80 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13154 Posts
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4211 Posts
GGs WP Rain  | ||
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angry_maia
319 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia13154 Posts
The anti Bisu. | ||
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES50437 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:18 TornadoSteve wrote: Rush 4-0 oh man lol | ||
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Highgamer
1432 Posts
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angry_maia
319 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:35 RowdierBob wrote: Rain is a BW savant. Dude literally picks and chooses when he wants to be great at the game. Decides to take it a bit more serious this season and straight into ro4. The anti Bisu. And tbh he doesn't even look in peak form. His control seeming off feels reflective of his practice habits.. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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M2
Bulgaria4127 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:40 M2 wrote: Funny how Terrans have quantity, but don't have quality nowadays. Yeah, nobody has really stood up for the last three seasons. I guess Sharp could still pull a rabbit out of a hat, but I kinda doubt it. | ||
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prosatan
Romania8312 Posts
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:42 prosatan wrote: Can you please write the score? I cannot watch the games Rain dominates 4-0. | ||
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angry_maia
319 Posts
While true, it's worth noting that 3/4 games were decided by cheese. Unless 'im wrong games 3-4 were straight up build order wins | ||
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prosatan
Romania8312 Posts
Hurrraaayyyy!! Rip LB tho.. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:45 angry_maia wrote: While true, it's worth noting that 3/4 games were decided by cheese. Unless 'im wrong games 3-4 were straight up build order wins Oh, that's definitely true. Game 1: 12 nexus holds the SCV pull Game 2: unscouted 12 nexus Game 3: DT's vs no detection Game 4: failed BBS into gate first. In game 2 it looked like Rush could do something, but maybe that was an illusion. In the others, I really don't know. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13154 Posts
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TMNT
2864 Posts
Note that same thing could be said when he lost 0-4 to Light a couple of seasons ago too. Everything just aligned nicely for Rain today. Of course he still had to play solidly. But the BO advantage made things smooth for him. | ||
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vitika
13 Posts
On October 14 2024 19:18 TornadoSteve wrote: Rush 4-0 | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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angry_maia
319 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:52 RowdierBob wrote: Soooo, it’s really gonna be a repeat SK vs Hero finals again. I'm really not sure. In ASL/KSL rain has an absolute killer record against zerg. He took out Soulkey, Soma, and Queen pretty convincingly (okay Soulkey was really close). He also did beat Hero in ASL 5 but that included sparkle which was pretty P favored against Z iirc. Judging from tournament play, I really do consider Rain has having the very best PvZ over the last couple years. | ||
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
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Hoanghai227
6 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13986 Posts
I do see Rain making it to the finals now tho. Anyone else expecting Hero > Sharp SK > Snow Rain > Hero SK > Rain | ||
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 14 2024 23:09 Cricketer12 wrote: Dude...I really didnt see this coming. I do see Rain making it to the finals now tho. Anyone else expecting Hero > Sharp SK > Snow Rain > Hero SK > Rain Imagine a timeline where Rain the tourist BW player deprives SK from a third ASL/SSL in a row. | ||
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Sorusaba
290 Posts
On October 14 2024 23:17 cheesehuehue wrote: Imagine a timeline where Rain the tourist BW player deprives SK from a third ASL/SSL in a row. Do you feel it in the air? The season? The leaves are falling. An ancient prophecy quietly stirs... | ||
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Katkishka
United States654 Posts
On October 14 2024 20:47 Simplistik wrote: Oh, that's definitely true. Game 1: 12 nexus holds the SCV pull Game 2: unscouted 12 nexus Game 3: DT's vs no detection Game 4: failed BBS into gate first. In game 2 it looked like Rush could do something, but maybe that was an illusion. In the others, I really don't know. Just reading about those builds is making my blood pressure rise. I wasn't expecting Rush to win anyway but damn. | ||
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M3t4PhYzX
Poland4211 Posts
On October 14 2024 23:56 Sorusaba wrote: Do you feel it in the air? The season? The leaves are falling. An ancient prophecy quietly stirs... A protoss victory would be absolutely amazing. Oh man.. The Legend of the Fall.. I REALLY hope it happens. The realist in me still thinks Soulkey is going to spoil it all with a three-peat though. | ||
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whylessness
United States376 Posts
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BulgarianToss
Bulgaria487 Posts
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TMNT
2864 Posts
(provided Hero beats Sharp - nothing is certain at this point) However, Soulkey would eat them both alive in their current form. The only Protoss who is close to 50/50 against Soulkey is Bisu. The only scenario that puts Soulkeys 3 peat at risk is the ZvZ finals. Also it's not like the results today have changed anything. Had Rush advanced to the finals he would have lost to Soulkey anyway. He effectively already won the SSL after beating Light. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
I feel like people aren't thinking enough about variance here. | ||
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:13 Simplistik wrote: I personally don't think the odds are as one-sided as many people think. Even if we give SK phenomenal odds, like 80% in the semi and the final (which I think is too high), he's still less than 2/3 to win the title. Even at 90% that's >20% chance of someone else taking it. I feel like people aren't thinking enough about variance here. I don't think most people here take it for granted that SK will beat snow, let alone win the tournament. There's even a small but non-zero probability that Rain wins the tournament (and his second ASL/SSL title), and I find that really hilarious. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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Cricketer12
United States13986 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:51 Simplistik wrote: The odds for the remaining players might be something like: 30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. I honestly believe you aren't giving SK enough credit here solely because we're offline here. Aside from perhaps Rain, I see no current player who thrives in offline conditions to the extent SK does. Correct me if I'm wrong but Light had an absurd online record over SK in the months preceeding last week's match and despite a super strong map pool for terran it didn't matter. | ||
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Simplistik
2059 Posts
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cheesehuehue
Vatican City State90 Posts
On October 15 2024 03:27 Simplistik wrote: Bump him up to 40 if you want. He is the favourite, but I don't think he's more than 65% against the remaining players in the field, and definitely less against herO. I give SK 55-60% chance against Snow, and 50-55% against hero, but he is easily at 70-80% chance against Sharp, and 80-90% against Rain in a bo7. So I also think that his probability of winning the tournament is somewhere between 30 and 40% (factoring in that the main potential obstacle is Hero, but it is not a given that Hero will make it to the finals.) | ||
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Lazyer
United States361 Posts
I could be down for a legend this fall... | ||
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ShowTheLights
Korea (South)1692 Posts
are you all going to just make excuses that Rush played bad now? Rain is a god when he cares 4-0'd the best Terran out there (and no its not freaking Light) This is Rain's season This ONLY way Rain loses is if he gets Hydra bust'd 4 times next round vs Hero | ||
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TornadoSteve
1070 Posts
On October 15 2024 02:51 Simplistik wrote: The odds for the remaining players might be something like: 30% SK 25% Snow 20% Rain 15% herO 10% Sharp You can adjust by a few points here or there, but I doubt anyone is sitting at even close to 50%. My personal % Sk 32% SnOw 20% (past offline results, PvsP Rain win%, etc. explain this) Rain 14% hero 23% Sharp 11% | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2394 Posts
On October 15 2024 00:46 BulgarianToss wrote: Ultimately Rain had to have superb unit control No. Not in game 2. In the others, sure, he's good at the small-scale stuff. His macro is just disgusting, though, and he gets this "BO luck" so consistently, it seems, that even a hater like me has to admit his build choice is strong. | ||
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
On October 15 2024 12:10 Turbovolver wrote: No. Not in game 2. In the others, sure, he's good at the small-scale stuff. His macro is just disgusting, though, and he gets this "BO luck" so consistently, it seems, that even a hater like me has to admit his build choice is strong. BO luck is not enough to win games at high level. At first game he defended bunker rush really well. | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2394 Posts
On October 15 2024 13:05 HOLYBATS wrote: BO luck is not enough to win games at high level. At first game he defended bunker rush really well. Sounds like you're agreeing with me? I specifically said in the post his small-scale micro is strong. Really, as far as I can judge basically everything about Rain is strong except for his larger-scale PvT engagements, but he can still often win PvT games that go late anyway simply on the back of rapidly taking huge swaths of the map and macroing like a beast. I wouldn't blame game 2 just on "unscouted 12 nexus", Rain really did play well there by keeping really active with the drops and never letting macro slip. His shuttle/reaver usage against the army was kind of just bad, though, certainly at least compared to the rest of his level of play. At no point did he take a decisive gateway engagement and crush the T army, even at moments during the series where by supply count he absolutely should have been able to. And this has been a long-standing trend, hell maybe to some extent it's the price of macroing as hard as he does. And now that Arbiters are less in vogue he's moved away from just mindlessly throwing recall after misguided recall at the T and re-macroing as a strategy, so his PvT might even have levelled up :D | ||
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TMNT
2864 Posts
At no point did he take a decisive gateway engagement and crush the T army, even at moments during the series where by supply count he absolutely should have been able to Don't think there was any moment in that game that was possible for such engagement. In fact taking that engagement would be suicide. Did you not see the tank count? When Terrans go 5 Fact expand then camp in their quadrant until max, especially on Radeon, there simply is no bust timing for Protoss with just Gateway army. | ||
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Turbovolver
Australia2394 Posts
On October 15 2024 14:14 TMNT wrote: Don't think there was any moment in that game that was possible for such engagement. In fact taking that engagement would be suicide. Did you not see the tank count? When Terrans go 5 Fact expand then camp in their quadrant until max, especially on Radeon, there simply is no bust timing for Protoss with just Gateway army. I specifically said "in the series" there because it wasn't that game. It was the Minstrel game where Rain was up like 80 supply and suddenly decided to start going Carriers because he didn't trust himself to close it out, or something. He has so many dragoons but instead he sends in two very poorly controlled shuttles to suicide, separate from his army, before Rush attacks into him and goes "oh that's how much you have?" and gg's out. It was kind of funny, and I think shows my point about Rain's PvT. And yeah, maybe someone would come back and say Rain was just playing defensive because he knew he had more bases and was going to win with Carriers anyway, but both that shuttle attack and some attack(s) in top left of the Radeon game where Rain was just trickling in units with zero/poor micro doing minimal damage, arrgh. It's just sloppy. It's a frustrating style to watch but he gets results anyway on the back of his macro, and that combined with his strong early games in the matchup (it's not just this series vs Rush where he has had a bunch of free wins in tournament play) means he gets way more credit in PvT than I think he deserves. Especially compared to how clean his other two matchups look. Or maybe this is just what premiere PvT looks like, just go back to 1a2a3a and make sure you hit your cycles. Haha maybe, I'm certainly no expert :D | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7808 Posts
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Peeano
Netherlands5150 Posts
I'd argue Light made Rain look worse when he 4-0'd him than Rain made Rush look, but it still isn't pretty. Rush looked indecisive or scared this series. Rain deserves credit for that. Now I'm hoping Sharp can pull through just to see if Sharp can perform better than Rush vs Rain. | ||
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WGT-Baal
France3393 Posts
On October 16 2024 06:09 Peeano wrote: While I obviously don't like that Rain won, I don't mind it. I do mind Rush lost 4-0... I'd argue Light made Rain look worse when he 4-0'd him than Rain made Rush look, but it still isn't pretty. Rush looked indecisive or scared this series. Rain deserves credit for that. Now I'm hoping Sharp can pull through just to see if Sharp can perform better than Rush vs Rain. Yeah, rush looked a bit out of it but also credits to Rain. I m actually pretty happy about the ro4, i hope we get 4-2/4-3 series | ||
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Artas1984
131 Posts
Rain deserved this victory - he had to redeem himself from the bad ''PvT'' image given to him ever since he was crushed by Light 4-0. It was a bit unfair calling his PvT bad, i am glad he got over with this. | ||
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HOLYBATS
Turkey741 Posts
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Navane
Netherlands2748 Posts
The mines vs dt, the lifted rax in game 3. The cross map push, which establishes a box in of top right quadrant, but then he doesn't branch and nexus kill in game 2. Game 4, BBS on a map you picked yourself? Game 1, he starts with some weird hidden nat rax, struggles a bit, somehow gets into a great position splitting Rains nat from his third. Gets a turret up. Proceeds to feed one of his three tanks to kill a pylon which opens up the breaking possibilities for Rain, and opens up his other two tanks for him, instead of sieging up and holding till his reinforcements. Which he didn't have? Did he miss two macro cycles? It seemed all a giant throw, match fix scandal when. | ||
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Navane
Netherlands2748 Posts
On October 14 2024 23:56 Sorusaba wrote: Do you feel it in the air? The season? The leaves are falling. An ancient prophecy quietly stirs... Lol! You're not wrong through... | ||
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RJBTVYOUTUBE
Netherlands967 Posts
On October 19 2024 00:04 Navane wrote: A lot of Rush' moves seemed just silly bad mistakes, that I don't expect from someone this caliber. The mines vs dt, the lifted rax in game 3. The cross map push, which establishes a box in of top right quadrant, but then he doesn't branch and nexus kill in game 2. Game 4, BBS on a map you picked yourself? Game 1, he starts with some weird hidden nat rax, struggles a bit, somehow gets into a great position splitting Rains nat from his third. Gets a turret up. Proceeds to feed one of his three tanks to kill a pylon which opens up the breaking possibilities for Rain, and opens up his other two tanks for him, instead of sieging up and holding till his reinforcements. Which he didn't have? Did he miss two macro cycles? It seemed all a giant throw, match fix scandal when. I call it nerves and choking. | ||
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Dante08
Singapore4128 Posts
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Minstrel
