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On September 01 2018 04:45 Dazed. wrote:
theres a huge timing window difference between muta and hydra though, you can safely rule one or the other out before wasting cannons all over the place. if zerg opens with something like a 9p speed hes setting himself way behind unless he does something cheesy, and you should scout that he went 9p speed before the speed kicks in and kills your probe, thus giving you all the inclination necessary to send out a second probe and hide it somewhere before you even lose the first one.
Yeah I know that 9 pool speed is a costly investment for early economy for zerg, but the fact remains that unless zerg plays poorly and lets your subsequent probes come in for a scout, it was actually their game to lose rather than a player outplaying them from equal skill. If you hide your 2nd probe, a zerg playing optimally should realize this that you may have sent another probe out before your 1st one died, which should be common sense for progamers. So all they have to do is make more lings and zone out your probe before it gets a chance to see the natural. All zerg has to do is keep some lings close by to the natural and snipe probes from getting a peak.
Now you might say well if protoss sees zerg investing in more lings he should see that as a sign of something coming and invest in more cannons, and that is true, but to what extent does protoss need? If it's just speedlings, and zerg macros up from there, while protoss just blindly builds cannons for a hydra bust that doesn't come, then the game will normalize again only the zerg's economy will flourish faster, since protoss moving out timing is slowed down considerably as well.
Maybe i'm wrong though and maybe zerg's economy won't be as good as I think and that the early pressure of speedlings does put zerg further behind than what I'm thinking. I just need to see the numbers I guess of what actually is invested and what can be accomplished.
The timing for 2 hatch muta play vs hydra bust is actually pretty similar, relative to how fast you can scout with your corsair. So in the assumption that you either play blind cannons at natural due to optimal play by the zerg to zone out your probe scouts and wait for your 1st corsair. These are the scenarios I have.
Usually 2 hatch muta, mutas come flying in at protoss base around 6:15, depending on map positions. For hydra bust play, usually hydras come knocking in at 5:30-5:45. So even though the timing can be 45 seconds apart, relative to what your corsair can scout in that timing window, the margin of error is not forgiving at all. So if you assume hydra bust and it's 2 base muta, you wasted all your economy at the time for the natural defense so by the time your corsair is finished you'd scout he went muta, and then try to cannon asap at your main, but then it may be too late. There would be a lot of variables to consider like what opening did zerg and protoss start with, so I can't say protoss won't be able to defend it, but it's pretty close. Now if you think it's muta play but it's hydras then you're in an even worse position and you just outright lose.
The margin of error for Protoss is in PvZ is slim in regards to early game. In ZvT, the margin or error I noticed has gotten wider when zergs started being able to defend their thirds a lot more consistently. So I'm open to seeing if Protoss can do the same, if there is a way for Protoss to increase their skill ceiling to match what Zerg can exploit regarding the early speedling zoning out probes.
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Oh, such sweet games from maboy JD. Was afraid Rain would overwhelm him in some nerve wrecking 4-3 fashion but no. Such a nice day to witness JD showing off his ZvP skill.
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Equal skill is a nebulous and self serving concept, between knowledge, mechanics and emotion it is very difficult to determine if someone is of "equal" skill.
As to 9 pool speed: Theres a reason its not a standard opening, it puts you very behind if you dont do damage. If the zerg is intending to use it for a run by, he will definitely produce 6+ lings which your probe will scout, he will likely hug outside your natural while he waits for speed/the right amount of lings, then its go time. But if you scouted him on time your 2nd probe should already be escaped before he can kill your first and set his lings up. If he hangs his lings back by his natural at the very least you can get a probe out to confirm he doesnt have a third, if he doesnt have a third you know your being all ined and can safely add a cannon, check his ling count. If theres a low amount you can push with zealots and it will screw up all his timings, if he has a decent amount of lings its almost certainly not mutalisk. The reality is its not bad play by zerg if protoss manages to get by their natural, its not easy to do but its not impossible either. You just have to learn the timings in a precise manner.
If 9 pool were so simple to abuse it would still be the standard, but it hasnt been since 2007.
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Even if you don't agree as to what standards to judge players in terms of skill, you can still point out the vast differences of risk/rewards in each match up. Zerg doesn't take much risk in 9pool openings (it's not an all in type of strategy but can easily transition to mid to late game without suffering much disadvantage) but can reap disproportionate rewards. 9 pool gas is a pretty standard opening, I don't know why you would think it hasn't been a standard opening, but it is. It's not an economical standard opening but it's an aggressive standard opening.
There are also multitude of locations of where zerg can expand to his 3rd, so just saying your 2nd probe can scout a 3rd location is pretty hopeful and dependent on luck and what happens in context of the opening, plus zerg often still gets his 3rd base and may still do the hydra bust strategy so scouting a 3rd doesn't rule that out anyways. If you scout using your 2nd probe to scout the 3rd base to see whats popping out of there to see the hydras, speedlings will catch it very quickly and then you'll have to send out a 3rd probe to hope the speedlings are occupied enough to not catch your subsequent probes. I've been in the same situation where I sent multiple probes out at the same time hoping at least one probe would make it to his base, but since speedlings are so fast, if I had to spread out the probes to hope to put some distance between my probes to force lings to choose to chase 1 or the other because otherwise the speedlings would just eat all of them for breakfast even quicker if you send them even remotely close together, my probe still has to go a round about way to reach the zerg's base at which point the 1st few probes are already killed and then by the time I'm going around to reach his natural my last probe gets scouted and killed.
But an optimal zerg would catch the probes before they have a chance to see anything decent if zerg was committed in zoning out the probe and practiced that style of play.
So it's very dependent on a multitude of factors. If zerg is competent and playing optimally, he will zone your probe from seeing anything meaningful in order to rule out any strategies. If you even manage to scout and get lucky to get past his speedlings, you have to hope you saw his hydras pop out of the eggs at the right time before his speedlings catch up to your probe and kill it. The hydra den would likely be in the main so a competent zerg would put a drone at the ramp to block your probe until speedlings catch it. If you aim to scout in at around the 5 minute mark to see if any hydras are made at all and want to come in at a time that they are most likely to have hydras out by that time if you're ascertaining if he is going hydra bust, your probe would have to hope it found a good hiding spot until the right moment or that zerg wasn't thorough enough to see it.
To be fair, I'd say though if I saw a lot of speedlings invested to catching multiple probe scouts, I'd invest in 2 more cannons just to be safe because I'm not going to be behind a zerg who invested in speedlings and the amount of larvae committed to early lings. So it may balance out, so then the 1st 3 cannons may buy enough time for the subsequent cannons to warp in by the time you realize the hydra bust is on. I'd like to hear more opinions on this.
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This series was utterly beautiful to watch
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L E E J A E D O N G ! <3
Is there VODs anywhere?? 
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Brutal for Rain, JD literally dismantled him...
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On September 01 2018 02:48 chozen86 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2018 18:59 Ej_ wrote:On August 31 2018 17:09 reincremate wrote:
On a side note, I'm curious as to when was the last time a cannon rush was executed in a broadcasted PvZ. Maybe someone with more game knowledge/memory can find that? I think it was free vs EffOrt on Circuit Breaker, in SSL Classic final. EffOrt easily drone drilled vs it tho. Most recent one I can remember is Bisu v Larva in Game 1 of ASL4 3rd place match: + Show Spoiler +
Your timestamp is off, it's like in the middle of game 2 or 3
Here is the proper link:
https://youtu.be/p6MdBOQHnDs?t=602
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Epic. Great job Jaedong! That made me so happy.
What the hell is up with the format of this tournament. Best of 7's. Winner picks maps. Yuck! Get rid of these gimics. Broodwar doesn't need gimics.
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On September 01 2018 04:19 Dazed. wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2018 17:09 reincremate wrote:On August 31 2018 16:47 Moopower wrote:
In the 1st game with the hydra bust after the early ling pressure, how is a protoss expected to defend successfully to where he is at least even or ahead of the zerg who is doing an all in type of strategy if he has speedling map control to where your probes cant even scout?
If you make cannons blind, zerg can just switch to economy, or if zerg didn't even go for hydra bust, you're even further behind for investing in cannons early to avoid an autoloss if you didn't have defense for a hydra bust.
One thing I have noticed that could've put Rain in a better situation was to probe block his choke if he was heading out with his zealots. If the early speedlings didn't go in to snipe the cannons he would've been able to defend the hydras more efficiently than at the last moment. But then again the speedlings I feel were such large in numbers that they could've just killed those 4 zealots easily without gaining much intel, and trading inefficiently with speedlings = toss even further behind.
I feel zerg has too many options and not enough things to punish them, while toss if they make one critical mistake, they lose the game. This has been discussed at great length innumerable times before, but keeping your initial scouting probe alive for as long as possible is really important, and sometimes so is sending out a second probe early on the map. But yeah, PvZ can be unforgivingly brutal, as after denying scouting, Zerg has a ton of options for early all-ins, like 3 hatch hydra, 4 hatch hydra, 2 hatch hydra, mass speedlings, fast mutas, etc while P can only FE or maybe do some quirky 1 gate stargate build, with the only really viable cheese being double proxy gate, hence the slight Z > P > T > Z balance tilt. On a side note, I'm curious as to when was the last time a cannon rush was executed in a broadcasted PvZ. Maybe someone with more game knowledge/memory can find that? 4 hatch is not all in.
Ah okay, my bad. I only remembered from my admittedly limited knowledge from back in the day that 3 hatch spire into 5 hatch was the standard and that there were various other options for ZvP.
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EPT
