EPT[ASL4] Ro16 Group D - Page 21
| Forum Index > Brood War Tournaments |
|
arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
| ||
|
Dazed.
Canada3301 Posts
On October 13 2017 06:13 usopsama wrote: LOL. Larva is arguably the best zerg right now, unarguably a top five player. Unless larva chokes, rain is unlikely to take even a game off of him.Larva's coin-flipping zvz results in the RO16 makes him favorable against Rain? What the fuck are you talking about? Larva isn't even that good. | ||
|
arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
| ||
|
Cryoc
Germany909 Posts
On October 13 2017 06:13 usopsama wrote: Larva's coin-flipping zvz results in the RO16 makes him favorable against Rain? What the fuck are you talking about? Larva isn't even that good. Maybe you should watch the ZvZs so you know what the fuck you are talking about instead of assuming Larva won due to build order advantages. He clearly outsmarted his opponent both times and did not just win by chance. | ||
|
tanngard
Norway1325 Posts
On October 13 2017 05:13 TT1 wrote: rain's pvz is by far his weakest matchup, i'd say larva is the favorite as well Its like the weakest matchup by far for any protoss lol. Rain is actually the second best pvz'er these days only behind Bisu, so i think thats worth mentioning. I think Larva and Rain is evenly matched actually. | ||
|
Alpha-NP-
United States1242 Posts
| ||
|
tanngard
Norway1325 Posts
On October 13 2017 06:29 arbiter_md wrote: I would say that SK has the best ZvT now, and hero or effort has the best ZvP. But larva got good enough to go through the Rain and remain dry. According to the sponbbang stats, Soulkey has since beginning of August surpassed any other zerg in zvp as well. He is the strongest zerg overall. Larva's sponbbang ELO is lower than Soulkey, Effort, Jaedong and Hero. Sponbbang is sponsored matches + stuff like KCM matches. Larva is capable of incredible things, but he is unstable. August to now: http://sponbbang.com/bj/?order1=전체&order2=elo&detail_td=winrate&month1=2017-08&month2=2017-10&race=전체&map_id=전체 | ||
|
StarscreamG1
Portugal1653 Posts
| ||
|
usopsama
6502 Posts
On October 13 2017 07:03 tanngard wrote: According to the sponbbang stats, Soulkey has since beginning of August surpassed any other zerg in zvp as well. He is the strongest zerg overall. Larva's sponbbang ELO is lower than Soulkey, Effort, Jaedong and Hero. Sponbbang is sponsored matches + stuff like KCM matches. Larva is capable of incredible things, but he is unstable. August to now: http://sponbbang.com/bj/?order1=전체&order2=elo&detail_td=winrate&month1=2017-08&month2=2017-10&race=전체&map_id=전체 Exactly. Soulkey is by far the strongwest zerg overall. Larva cannot even remotely compare to Soulkey. Larva couldn't even make past the RO16 in ASL 1, 2, 3. Anyone who thinks Larva is the strongest zerg is out of touch with reality. Larva is like Shine; they can fluke through the tournament once in a while, but they lack the consistency to be the best. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
| ||
|
traxamillion
104 Posts
And I'm not sure the ro8 selection was fixed as in group A 1st plays group d 2nd. Yes 1st place winners play 2nd place finishers but beyond that did afreeca have influence? Keep in mind flash vs bisu in the ro4 makes afreeca about as much money as them meeting in the finals. The way things are set up flash and bisu are near guaranteed to play. Had they been on opposite sides it is a lot less likely they ever even play as then bisu has to go through a bunch of the best zergs | ||
|
Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On October 13 2017 07:03 tanngard wrote: According to the sponbbang stats, Soulkey has since beginning of August surpassed any other zerg in zvp as well. He is the strongest zerg overall. Larva's sponbbang ELO is lower than Soulkey, Effort, Jaedong and Hero. Sponbbang is sponsored matches + stuff like KCM matches. Larva is capable of incredible things, but he is unstable. August to now: http://sponbbang.com/bj/?order1=전체&order2=elo&detail_td=winrate&month1=2017-08&month2=2017-10&race=전체&map_id=전체 While not arguing about Soulkey's strengths, I'd like to point out that the conclusions you reach cannot be inferred from the data you mention. First of all, you have to look at a player's ELO for some amount of time. Say, from the beginning of August. You will discover that for a couple of weeks in the beginning of September and maybe before Larva was #2 in ELO. So the current rating is meaningless without context, since it's too much variation in day-to-day perfomances of a given player. Someone might have a bad day and lose 10-15 in a row. It happens, it's not improbable, and his ELO will drop considerably, especially if the losses come against lower-rated players. I would also like to point out (although it needs more researching) that the strength of the opponents for these two players differs somewhat, if we take into account the data you listed. Since the beginning of August the percentage of matches of both Soulkey and Larva against (arguably) strong players: Flash: Larva 14%, Soulkey 10%. Last: Larva 7%, Soulkey 5%. Bisu: Larva 12%, Soulkey 0.3 % Mind: Larva 5%, Soulkey 1% Best: Larva 3%, Soulkey 6%. Light: Larva 7%, Soulkey 3%. Larva also has played more ZvT (53% of matches) than Soulkey (48%), which is considered to be a harder matchup for Zerg. As for ZvP, 33% of Larva's matches are against Bisu, while for the past 2.5 months Soulkey has only played him once. Larva's percentage of games against other P players relative to the total amount of matches against P, (>= 5 games counted): vs. Bisu: 33% vs. Snow: 11% vs. Shuttle: 9% vs. Best: 8% vs. Mini: 8% vs. Rain: 7% vs. Stork: 7% vs. Horang2: 3% vs. Tyson: 3% Soulkey, the same: vs. Best: 18% vs. Tyson: 18%. vs. Mini: 12% vs. Shuttle: 11% vs. Snow: 9% vs. Horang2: 9% Soulkey has less than five games in that period against Bisu, Rain, Stork: vs. Bisu: 0.9% vs. Rain: 2% vs. Stork: 1% + Soulkey has played against two protosses that Larva has not played or played less than five games against: vs. Guemchi 7% vs. Sky 4%. Larva did not play against Guemchi and that period and has only two games against Sky (1%). Overall, I'd say that SK had weaker P opponents in that period, so that may have contributed to his increasing ZvP percentages (75% in August, 75% in September and 78% so far in October). | ||
|
chuDr3t4
Russian Federation484 Posts
On October 11 2017 12:34 Magic Powers wrote: In almost every PvZ I hear Tastosis explain that one-hit-kills give off a ping warning on the minimap. They don't, there's no warning at all. Please stop spreading this myth Tastosis, it's driving me nuts :/ yep, terran privilege | ||
|
L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On October 13 2017 10:53 usopsama wrote: Exactly. Soulkey is by far the strongwest zerg overall. Larva cannot even remotely compare to Soulkey. Larva couldn't even make past the RO16 in ASL 1, 2, 3. Anyone who thinks Larva is the strongest zerg is out of touch with reality. Larva is like Shine; they can fluke through the tournament once in a while, but they lack the consistency to be the best. Dude. You haven't been following closely have you? The fact that you mention ASL 1/2/3 tells me that. Larva went nowhere in the first 3 ASLs. That's absolutely correct. Larva's results in other events, his fish ranking, his spon matches, and his general appearance on stream all reflected that. He was largely a punching bag. Que the beginning of this year. That's where shit started to change. Things clicked, and Larva got really good, really fast. He went from basically always losing against guys like Bisu/Flash/Last to starting to obtain winning results. He was actually bringing down win rates from those guys in spon matches at this point. He's continued improving since then. Last 3 months he is over 50% against Bisu. Over 70% against Last...let that sink in, better than 70% against Last. He's basically smashing everybody else. The ONLY player he struggles with is Flash, where Larva wins a little shy of 40% of his games. But guess what, so does basically every other zerg. Larva is much better against the other terrans, but EffOrt does do a little better against Flash if I recall correctly. Bottom line, Larva is absolutely one of the three top zergs right now based on current form. He is too new to actually being a good player to have a resume yet, but based on results of the past 6 months; Larva is undisputed member of the leading zerg trio of Larva, Soulkey, and EffOrt. No other zerg is close to these three right now, and these three haven't really separated themselves yet. | ||
|
usopsama
6502 Posts
| ||
|
SlayerS_BunkiE
Canada1707 Posts
On October 14 2017 03:02 usopsama wrote: Don't worry. Once you guys see Rain 3-0 or 3-1 Larva with your own eyes, you will understand that he is actually not that good. Haha now I'm hyped for Sunday! To be clear, my assessment of the match is the same as BigFan -- Larva is favoured but only slightly. Which is actually saying something about how good I think Rain is. Like Boxer said in his autobiography, to be recognized, first you gotta prove yourself in front of your audience. Larva is good and he showed great games in ro16, but its easy to lose on the big stage and before you know it, that label that ur no good in offline tournaments will start to stick. | ||
|
L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On October 14 2017 03:02 usopsama wrote: Don't worry. Once you guys see Rain 3-0 or 3-1 Larva with your own eyes, you will understand that he is actually not that good. Noting this for bump later. + Show Spoiler + I'd put money on Larva beating Rain. That said, Rain is one of the better PvZing protoss players. If anybody besides Bisu is going to beat Larva, it would be Rain. It still flies in the face of logic you don't think Larva is good. You don't have winning records against Last/Bisu without being good, and there is no other reason to think Larva isn't good. The only one I can think of is going by past tournament results, but if we did that we would still be thinking players like Jaedong, Shuttle, Ssak, etc. are good. Results from past 6-12 months are far better predictors of success than tournament results of a year or more. In other words, I'm genuinely curious why you don't think Larva is especially good. I can't see any reasoning for it aside from "Eh, I just don't think he is good." The other thing I should add is that it should be clear people aren't hyped thinking Larva is going to beat Rain because he won a pair of ZvZs. There is probably a more complex, overarching reason why people think Larva is likely to beat Rain. If you remember previous ASL's nobody expected Larva to do a thing. Knowing people tend to be pretty stuck to their opinions (which were always Larva is punching bag zerg) you'd expect something to have happened to change people's opinions. Given your thoughts, I'm curious what you think the driver of the dramatic reversal in how most TLers view Larva's skill level is? | ||
|
Alpha-NP-
United States1242 Posts
But I am even more excited for this match now that I hear Larva has won more games than lost against Rain. Plus Zerg has a +10% chance in balance in ZvP. So all things together I'm hoping for a nice 3-2 series. | ||
|
Djabanete
United States2786 Posts
Larva 3:0 Rain: 15% Larva 3:1 Rain: 25% Larva 3:2 Rain: 20% Rain 3:2 Larva: 20% Rain 3:1 Larva: 15% Rain 3:0 Larva: 5% | ||
|
winson
China138 Posts
| ||
| ||
