EPT8
free8
ZerO5
EffOrt5
fOrGG0
inter.young0
sKyHigh[Fantasy] Shinhan PL Round 2 - Page 16
| Forum Index > BW General |
|
Kennigit
Canada19447 Posts
8 free8 ZerO5 EffOrt5 fOrGG0 inter.young0 sKyHigh | ||
Empyrean
16950 Posts
On November 29 2008 18:03 xxsaznpride wrote: God dammit... I missed the part Where teams were mandatory.CAPTAIN 8 firebathero5 EffOrt5 Bisu4 July3 Much0 ToSsGirL0 sKyHighTEAM 5 Lecaf Oz edit: Where is a player...? - 3 PMs to SOG one with my mistaken lineup, one with no text whatsoever because only pros use "enter" as their "tab", and the third with the correct stuff. Haha, you still have too many players and the signups were already closed, regardless. Anyway, I'm hoping next round I do better, but then again, what else can you do when you didn't pick your players based on stats  | ||
|
tomash6
7 Posts
9 Jaedong (Captain)5 Bisu4 by.great3 Modesty2 Kwanro2 FrOzean5 Lecaf OZ | ||
|
WindOw
Sweden407 Posts
Yeah so? =) 1 spare point. big deal? | ||
|
WindOw
Sweden407 Posts
Did you get my final team update? I think i sent you 2 that were a bit off ^^;; Sorry about that. | ||
semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On November 30 2008 04:48 WindOw wrote: #semioldguy Did you get my final team update? I think i sent you 2 that were a bit off ^^;; Sorry about that. If it came in before the deadline, then yes, I've got the final version you sent. | ||
|
Kuja900
United States3564 Posts
| ||
|
Kuja900
United States3564 Posts
| ||
|
semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On November 30 2008 05:25 Kuja900 wrote: So is semioldguy scoring this? Or do we keep track individually or what? yes, I am keeping track along with Hot_Bid. There is actually a R&S thread that Hot_Bid posted that will be kept frequently up to date. I will be coming out with weekly comprehensive results in addition to the work done in that thread. | ||
|
traced
1739 Posts
On November 30 2008 00:58 LonelyMargarita wrote:post post Okay so you did some math. You overlooked important things, though. 1- Projecting the high end. We both had Flash at greater than 5 points per dollar. The thing is, Flash, Jaedong, Stork, and Best are more likely to keep a > 5ppd, whereas guys like Calm and Pusan are not. Flash, Jaedong, and Best, though I didn't do the math for the previous season, have similar stats last season. They're consistently elite, and their point output is likely to be similar. Calm and Pusan may perform just as well, but they are less likely to. 2- Predicted points per dollar is greatest at the highest end and lowest end. $1 players may not necessarily be worth it. I had Anytime anywhere from a 3-9 point value. $0 players are. Because... 3- $0 players give you 5-10+ points for free. Each one essentially make your other players worth more points per dollar. The important factor here is team wins. SkyHigh and Han benefit from 1 lineup appearance already, which projects for 1-2 points, in addition to their 5 points from team wins. Also, simply appearing in the lineup once makes it more likely for them to appear in the lineup again. Shuttle is also a decent pick because STX will likely win 6 or more games, and he is a candidate to make an appearance or two. I'm sure there are others. 4- $3-4 players all have lower ppd than the highest and lowest end. I had them consistently anywhere from 3-4.5 ppd. Then they share a synthesis flaw: 5- Though a few (Bisu) $5 players are worth more ppd than the highest end, all of them force you to take a $3 or $4 player. There are even more good $6 values, but they force you to take a $2 or $3 player. Flash or Jaedong plus Han or SkyHigh is simply more valuable than any combo you can create. Remember, you're buying consistency - Flash and Jaedong are very likely to repeat performances - some $3 or $4 WILL outvalue them this season, but at this point you cannot project any individual to, if you understand what I mean. 6- Most people overlooked this one. Teams just score less points per dollar than players. It is actually more efficient to choose a $3 team that wins 4 games over a $4 that wins 6 games, because the extra dollar in players makes up the difference and then some. That SKT will probably go at least .500 this season makes them the obvious choice. My lineup is Jaedong, Flash, Stork, Thezerg, Han, and Skyhigh. I'm projecting my players for a combined >5 ppd (without factoring in SKT). | ||
|
SingletonWilliam
United States664 Posts
| ||
disciple
9070 Posts
| ||
Hot_Bid
Braavos36369 Posts
On November 30 2008 06:33 SingletonWilliam wrote: I said it before in here, but if you're trying to calculate player's worth like this you should take into account how often they will be sent into an ace matchup and their chance to win it. This is why I think Flash is one of, if not the best, pick up. KTF takes nearly every match to ace and Flash plays once, wins, and gives you three points. Then he is selected for the ace match, wins again, and you get team win points. So while Stork might be a ballerific player, he is on an incredibly stacked team where he isn't going to get 2 matches a day. I think Jaedong is more likely to get 2 matches a day than stork, but his team is decent enough to where they don't take everything to ace. Just my two cents anyways, this is the first fantasy league I've ever done. this is already factored into the player point values though, that's why jaedong is 9, flash is 9, and stork is 7, its already taking into account their ace values from last season | ||
|
Hot_Bid
Braavos36369 Posts
On November 30 2008 06:01 traced wrote: 6- Most people overlooked this one. Teams just score less points per dollar than players. It is actually more efficient to choose a $3 team that wins 4 games over a $4 that wins 6 games, because the extra dollar in players makes up the difference and then some. That SKT will probably go at least .500 this season makes them the obvious choice. I agree with you on the High/Low combination of players being best, but not on the "SKT is obvious choice." For just one more point, you get Woongjin or CJ, who are far, far more likely to win 3-1 or 3-0 than SKT, who loses often and almost never sweeps due to their lineup being loaded at the Best/Bisu end and shitty at the Zerg end. They almost always drop one game or two. | ||
|
SpiralArchitect
United States2116 Posts
| ||
|
Hot_Bid
Braavos36369 Posts
On November 30 2008 08:51 SpiralArchitect wrote: All stats are reset for the second round of play correct? What I want to know is if a streak would continue through from round one, especially since GGPlay is doing very well for himself right now. I am sure this has been asked before, but forgive my stoned ass and help a brother out :D while we could've pro-rated the current streaks players were on into the player costs, i don't think semi accounted for already existing streak value, so i would assume all streak statistics are now reset, but wait for semi to make the official call | ||
|
SingletonWilliam
United States664 Posts
On November 30 2008 08:05 Hot_Bid wrote: this is already factored into the player point values though, that's why jaedong is 9, flash is 9, and stork is 7, its already taking into account their ace values from last season That was directed at LonelyMargarita and traced, sorry for any confusion. It was just a general statement about picking players to be on your team. I can't wait to see how trading works out in this league too. Edit: Can anyone repost the link to those excel sheets that were posted earlier? I looked through the thread but I didn't see them. | ||
|
ShadowDrgn
United States2497 Posts
On November 30 2008 06:01 traced wrote: 2- Predicted points per dollar is greatest at the highest end and lowest end. $1 players may not necessarily be worth it. I had Anytime anywhere from a 3-9 point value. $0 players are. Because..I agree with your analysis, but I think you're underrating Anytime.He's unquestionably ACE's best player and considering their lack of depth, he'll be on the roster every week. I assume round 2 is also 11 games so that's 11 appearances for Anytime right there. If ACE gets to the ace game, they'll probably send out Anytime too. He also has an advantage in that most teams don't send out their top lineups against ACE so he'll rack up a few free wins off players like HakSoo.My prediction: 11 Lineups = 11 points 4-6 Record = 2 points Team: 2 wins = 2 points Ace match appearances: 2 = 4 points Ace Record 1-1 = 1 point Total 20 points, and that's predicting a fairly mediocre season for Anytime and a usual stinker season for the team. | ||
|
zulu_nation8
China26351 Posts
| ||
|
traced
1739 Posts
Anytime has not played since the beginning of June. He has not played well since February. Players get worse when they play for ACE. I dunno, maybe with Reach and Casy and Oversky he'll have proper practice partners and be okay this season. Tough to say. Hot_Bid - that's a valid point, but the problem is there isn't much point separation amongst the teams. 3-0, 3-1, 3-2 is deceptive - not many teams win or lose 3-0 except ACE, and games go to ace 4/7 times. Even though SKT were only 4-7 and ALL of their wins came from aces, they were only something like 6 or 7 points behind the teams you mentioned, I believe. Because you can fill the extra point with a 5-6 point per dollar player, if you project SKT for even one more win, or even two more non-ace wins, they become just as cost effective or more than the teams you mentioned. Of course maybe you just think they really are a 4-7 team. | ||
| ||
