• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 15:52
CEST 21:52
KST 04:52
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 1 - Final Week6[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall12HomeStory Cup 27 - Info & Preview18Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)16Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0
Community News
Esports World Cup 2025 - Brackets Revealed12Weekly Cups (July 7-13): Classic continues to roll4Team TLMC #5 - Submission extension3Firefly given lifetime ban by ESIC following match-fixing investigation17$25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced7
StarCraft 2
General
The GOAT ranking of GOAT rankings RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread Esports World Cup 2025 - Brackets Revealed Who will win EWC 2025? Weekly Cups (July 7-13): Classic continues to roll
Tourneys
FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series $5,100+ SEL Season 2 Championship (SC: Evo) WardiTV Mondays
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 482 Wheel of Misfortune Mutation # 481 Fear and Lava Mutation # 480 Moths to the Flame Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome
Brood War
General
Flash Announces (and Retracts) Hiatus From ASL ASL20 Preliminary Maps BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion Starcraft in widescreen
Tourneys
Cosmonarchy Pro Showmatches [Megathread] Daily Proleagues CSL Xiamen International Invitational [BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers I am doing this better than progamers do.
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile CCLP - Command & Conquer League Project The PlayStation 5
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Segway man no more. Stop Killing Games - European Citizens Initiative
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
Formula 1 Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 2024 - 2025 Football Thread NBA General Discussion NHL Playoffs 2024
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Men Take Risks, Women Win Ga…
TrAiDoS
momentary artworks from des…
tankgirl
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 755 users

[ASL14] Ro16 Preview Pt1: The Thrills

Forum Index > BW General
5 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL14] Ro16 Preview Pt1: The Thrills

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
August 30th, 2022 04:13 GMT
ASL11 Main Image
With the end of the Ro24 we were left with a strong pool of 12 qualifers and the seeded 4 of the Defending Champion (T)Light, the 3rd/4th places of (P)Bisu and (Z)Soma and finally the Wildcard winner (Z)Action. A wacky but totally on brand for the ASL Ro16 Group selection later and we are left with groups that were made to favor no one and groups that were made to favor one person, both such groups are represented in here, but is it really all that it seems?

Group A Preview

The Beast, The Monster, The Pretty Boy and The Clown


(T)Light is one of the best Bo1 players and he can get great momentum once he wins just one game. Remember those winnersleague days in the KeSPA era? Him (and (T)Sea) pretty much solo carried MBC Game after (P)Bisu transfered to SKT1 and he kept up this trend ever since. Any time I tuned into KCM's Race Survival and Light was playing, he was usually wrecking face, stomping his way to (almost) killing everyone once he gets that first win. He is like the juggernaut in that regard, once he has that little momentum it keeps growing and he just keeps on going and becomes nearly unstoppable. He is the clear top contender for this group even for that reason alone.

(T)Mong is a great player, but he hasn't been performing that well in that last 2-3 years. I'd say he got kind of lucky with his Ro24 group that allowed him to advance to the Ro16. That said, I don't think you can ever count him out from reaching Ro8. Once you have seen someone's greatness, it will always stay somewhere in the back of your mind. You sort of hunger for it to return. You want to see a player perform at his best capability, you root for that. It creates excitement. Just look at all the (Z)Jaedong fans out there, it's a prime example of this. Mong is known to be a macro god. When he can get into mid game without being shaken up, i.e. doesn't suffer worker losses, his chances to win will just grow exponentially.

Now about (T)BarrackS. Honestly Barracks was never really successful and like (T)Mong I'd say he got kind of lucky with his Ro24 opponents. He has that charisma he is often credited for, but good looks alone won't make you win games. Unlike Mong, I would say he did increase his skill level over the past 2 years, but he still really needs to step it up if he wants to play with the big boys in Ro8.

Finally (Z)Shine. Oh boy. The bag of builds. Arguably my favorite Zerg, at least the one I always love to root for.
His builds are just so make or break. To be fair, from a viewer's perspective, his builds often don't seem optimized enough, which ironically makes it kind of more exciting to see if he can pull it off. When his build "breaks", he just keeps on trucking and simply goes for the next make or break follow up. It can create a total nailbiter of a game or simply be as boring and disappointing as can be. When Shine's build is - or close to - optimized, he can beat all the greats, including (T)Flash. Now the question becomes: Can (Z)Shine beat (T)Light? The current reigning ASL champ. If Light has a bad day I can see it happening. Shine will cheese Light and get enough advantage to end it right there and then or either kill him with his follow up all in gimmick. I find that chance so slim, that I'm hoping for Shine to go for a build focused on mid game instead. Light is simply too solid to be caught off guard in the early game.

(T)Light and (Z)Shine are expected to advance. I want them to. Shine sort of has to perform after killing off the fan favorite (Z)Jaedong. His build vs (P)Snow in previous round had potential, but it simply wasn't polished enough and turned into a complete disaster. I expect the same thing to happen if when he has to fight Light. Versus (T)Mong and/or (T)BarrackS however, I can see it work in his favor. Even though Shine is a dad - and thus may not be able to practice as much and focused - it's worth noting he only has to practice ZvT for this round where as for the Terrans it makes more sense to focus their practice on TvT for this round. And you know what? I would not be too surprised if Shine opts to play one standard ZvT here, not vs Light though!

Instead of predicting the final scores; by instinct and bias:
(T)Light has a significant chance to advance, 95+%
(Z)Shine close to 60%
(T)Mong and (T)BarrackS have about a 30% chance, which I completely base on Shine faultering.

Anyway, going by above mentioned percentages it's rather easy to put those into scores ^^
(T)Light advances 2-0
(Z)Shine advances 2-1
(T)Mong and (T)BarrackS get eliminated.

Group B Preview

Team Killers, One Filler


Group B is represented by (P)Bisu, (T)sSak, (T)Rush, and (P)BeSt. Three of these players are from the former team, SKT1. Based on the selections by Bisu, he shows he not only wants the easiest matches possible for himself but has little regard for his former teammates. Bisu has an astounding record against his ex-SKT teammates and rarely loses against them. His picks most likely come from a cross of lower skills level from his opponents, higher confidence in himself, and years of knowledge from training with them. However, Bisu still has one of the toughest Terran’s in his group. Rush has held a round of 16 spot for many seasons now and has returned looking as strong as ever.

(P)Bisu faces off against (T)sSak first. SSak has historically struggled to advance far in the ASL. Compounding that with his low PvT winrate, his success in this group becomes problematic. This first series is a best of 1 on Vermeer, which does bring a small advantage to Terran players. Its central area of the map has been designed well for tanks to cut quadrants up into areas of Terran control. Protoss has shown a lot of issues going with heavy gateway armies in the Round of 24. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bisu just grab three close bases and tech straight to Carriers. Without any major blunders, this series will go to Bisu.

(T)Rush is a reliable Terran in the group stages of the tournament. He has monstrous TvP and he too gets the map advantage of Vermeer. (P)Best has been a top 3 PvT player for the past 5 years, but that hasn’t translated into the Afreeca tournaments. BeSt is far more likely to go for a gateway style build, which is quite frankly akin to throwing your units into a wood chipper on this map. It’s not an easy task to predict who will win, but Rush has higher odds.

(P)Bisu matches up with (T)Rush in the winners match. They hold a 50% winrate against each other in recent matches. What Bisu holds, is momentum. Last season, Bisu took down (T)JyJ and challenged (T)Light in way that no other opponent could. Season 13 showed a Bisu who regained the mental fortitude that was lost to him half a decade ago. If Bisu can reduce sloppy mistakes and improve his micro back to a Bisu-level standard, then he can win this best of 3. Rush on the other hand hasn’t ever been eliminated at the hands of a Protoss player let alone barely ever loses. If Bisu’s gameplan is successful he will win here, but Rush cannot be counted out. This prediction, must be left up to a coinflip. Of course, the only coins I own have Bisu’s face on both sides. Bisu advances first.

(T)sSak has a 68% winrate in recent matches versus Protoss. That would be great, but all his wins are against B-level players. Meanwhile, (P)Best has a 56% winrate and he’s winning or tie-ing against the absolute best Terran players. He’s even 6-6 against Rush as of late. sSak has to endure a best of 3 series which will be very difficult for a player of his caliber to win. BeSt will come out on top here.

The player mentality issue is severe for (P)Best. His wall usually hits at the round of 8, but he’s certainly hit it earlier before. Having to face off against (T)Rush is a tough task. Rush doesn’t seem to be affected by (or make) mistakes in game or by taking losses. If BeSt loses even one game in this series, he is highly likely to lose the entire thing. It almost makes this series a best of 2 for Rush. He just needs that one win to mentally break down BeSt. Rush is thriving online too. He has a 60% winrate with 0 losing records against any Protoss player over the past month. Rush will ultimately win this series and put himself in a position to lose to another Zerg down the line.


(P)Bisu and (T)Rush Advance To The Ro8!



Writers: Peeano, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR

Facebook Twitter Reddit
TL+ Member
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50118 Posts
August 30 2022 04:15 GMT
#2
Huge thanks to Peeano for helping us out, love seeing new people contribute.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
HOLYBATS
Profile Joined August 2021
Turkey726 Posts
August 30 2022 06:09 GMT
#3
Great reviews. Small mistake Ro32 should be R24.
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania7996 Posts
August 30 2022 08:08 GMT
#4
Yesss sir! Matching my predictions also
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands4987 Posts
August 30 2022 08:15 GMT
#5
the only coins I own have Bisu’s face on both sides

Nice one, BD ^^
FBH #1!
masoka82
Profile Joined June 2020
Spain594 Posts
August 30 2022 08:30 GMT
#6
Bisu fightning!!
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 14h 8m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
UpATreeSC 229
mcanning 225
ZombieGrub146
SteadfastSC 111
BRAT_OK 93
Nathanias 42
MindelVK 28
ForJumy 25
StarCraft: Brood War
Larva 529
Aegong 71
sas.Sziky 44
Bale 4
Hm[arnc] 3
Dota 2
qojqva5482
Pyrionflax171
syndereN59
League of Legends
Grubby4129
Dendi1103
Counter-Strike
pashabiceps855
sgares658
Stewie2K653
byalli213
Foxcn209
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King77
Heroes of the Storm
Liquid`Hasu417
Other Games
summit1g6196
FrodaN3251
mouzStarbuck332
C9.Mang0170
Skadoodle105
Trikslyr91
Sick34
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick3314
StarCraft 2
angryscii 44
Other Games
BasetradeTV35
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 20 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• davetesta27
• Adnapsc2 21
• LUISG 2
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• sooper7s
• Migwel
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
StarCraft: Brood War
• 80smullet 20
• Michael_bg 6
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota21594
League of Legends
• Jankos1448
• TFBlade1062
Other Games
• imaqtpie1876
• Shiphtur353
Upcoming Events
The PondCast
14h 8m
OSC
17h 8m
WardiTV European League
20h 8m
Fjant vs Babymarine
Mixu vs HiGhDrA
Gerald vs ArT
goblin vs MaNa
Jumy vs YoungYakov
Replay Cast
1d 4h
Epic.LAN
1d 16h
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
Epic.LAN
2 days
CSO Contender
2 days
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
2 days
Bonyth vs Sziky
Dewalt vs Hawk
Hawk vs QiaoGege
Sziky vs Dewalt
Mihu vs Bonyth
Zhanhun vs QiaoGege
QiaoGege vs Fengzi
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
[ Show More ]
Online Event
3 days
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
3 days
Bonyth vs Zhanhun
Dewalt vs Mihu
Hawk vs Sziky
Sziky vs QiaoGege
Mihu vs Hawk
Zhanhun vs Dewalt
Fengzi vs Bonyth
Esports World Cup
5 days
ByuN vs Astrea
Lambo vs HeRoMaRinE
Clem vs TBD
Solar vs Zoun
SHIN vs Reynor
Maru vs TriGGeR
herO vs Lancer
Cure vs ShoWTimE
Esports World Cup
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2

Ongoing

BSL 2v2 Season 3
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
BSL20 Non-Korean Championship
Championship of Russia 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters

Upcoming

CSL Xiamen Invitational
CSL Xiamen Invitational: ShowMatche
2025 ACS Season 2
CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
BSL Season 21
K-Championship
RSL Revival: Season 2
SEL Season 2 Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
FEL Cracov 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
Underdog Cup #2
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.