EPT
Here we are again with the ASL9 season just about to end and the grand finals right around the corner...and what a season it has been! Three fourths of the TBLS participated and were narrowly eliminated in probably the closest and most action-packed elimination stage we’ve had in the post-Kespa era. From the Ro8 onward, only one map of a possible thirty was not played. Now Light and ZerO are the only two survivors from this grueling gauntlet.
Table of contents
Zero - Man of the Hour
It’s make-it or break-it time for Zero.
In the Kespa days, Zero emerged as a player to watch out for around 2009 during the famous LeeSsang era, even though he had been a staple on Woongjin’s Proleague lineup since the previous year. His claim to fame was his unbelievable muta micro which earned him the respect as a ZvZ sniper, but his style very quickly evolved into creative and quirky. He had macro mechanics that rivaled the best players, but his usage of queens and unusual Hive-tech ZvZ strategies earned him the respect of his peers and opened the eyes of the progaming community to new ideas.
Effort and Zero were tied for second best Zerg player at the time behind Jaedong because, let’s face it, everyone during 2009-2010 was overshadowed by Flash and Jaedong. But because they were considered second best, I don’t think they really got the attention they deserved. It really didn’t matter how good Zero’s muta micro was or whether he used queens when Jaedong was smashing nerds left and right.
What really kept Zero from ascending to the throne, though, was his tendency to choke in high stakes situations. A poor performance against Luxury (who, with all respect, was actually a very good ZvZ player) in the semifinals of the 2009 Lost Saga MSL made it painfully aware that Zero was getting jittery from nerves on stage. Despite falling in Proleague performance, his individual performance improved greatly over 2009, but it always ended with him choking in what should have been his most comfortable matchups.
Finally, in the 2011 ABC Mart MSL, he was able to overcome Jaedong in the semifinals (a huge upset) and come face to face with godhood. And then Flash bludgeoned him to death in the finals.
Since then, he’s made numerous splashes in the late Kespa era as well as gathering strength as the most fearsome Zerg out there today, but one thing has always eluded Zero despite his world class skill: the gold medal in an offline event.
On Sponbbang for the last two months, it has been a direct tie between Zero and Light for second place behind Flash (because no one is ever going to catch up to Flash while he’s still living and playing Brood War), and right now, Zero looks like the stronger of the two. Clocking in a 61% overall win rate, Zero is an absolute monster online. His muta-heavy style is incredibly sharp, and the huge repertoire of strategies in his back pocket are mind-blowing and unpredictable.
In recent weeks, Terrans have begun to experiment with more Starport-heavy builds including Flash’s valk build that he showcased in the ASL as well as a 2-port wraith variant that Rush has been pioneering. Zero is certainly not invulnerable against these strategies, but he has been characteristically fighting back in unique ways such as using queen Ensnares to slow down and reveal wraiths or small muta/ling turret dives to open up the Terran base more quickly. I have noticed that he tends to fall apart if his game plan is discovered and his greed is exposed, and should Light be able to exploit that weakness, there’s a good chance that he could force Zero to play on his terms.
But even if Zero is forced into a standard macro-fest with tons of multi-tasking, he’s a player that’s up for the challenge. While he’s not the fastest player on earth, Zero’s clicks are super efficient in a very Flash-like way, which allows him to get a lot more done than other players.
Will it be enough though? No matter how good Zero is, no matter how well he’s playing right now, his biggest failure has always been his tendency to falter when everything is on the line. His career is pockmarked with chokes and near victories that fell below his standard. Will this be another repeat?
In my opinion, Light is just too good right now. Completely unconvinced by Light’s achievements, I’ve been watching him closely since he became the golden boy in KSL, and after the last few rounds, I’m fully convinced that Light is just on another level right now. Zero beat Flash, so logic would follow that he should be able to beat Light, but when it comes to playing against 2-hatch muta, no Terran seems more comfortable than Light.
The one thing that Zero does have going for him right now is the map pool and the map order. Getting Horizon Lunar Colony and Neo Sylphid right off the bat is a huge godsend, and if he starts the series off right, he could definitely get the leg up with a quick 2-0. I expect Light to wrestle control back in the next two maps, Hitchhiker and Match Point, but the last three maps are really anyone’s game.
Still, I think Light has the chops and the cunning to outsmart Zero at his own game and overwhelm him with sheer mechanics. If we’re lucky, Zero will avoid choking and still put up some fantastic games.
Light < 
ZerO on 
Horizon Lunar Colony
Light > ZerO on Neo Sylphid
Light > ZerO on Hitchhiker
Light > ZerO on Match Point
Light > ZerO on Inner Coven
Light > ZerO on Escalade
Light > ZerO on Polypoid
Light takes the crown 4-1!
In the Kespa days, Zero emerged as a player to watch out for around 2009 during the famous LeeSsang era, even though he had been a staple on Woongjin’s Proleague lineup since the previous year. His claim to fame was his unbelievable muta micro which earned him the respect as a ZvZ sniper, but his style very quickly evolved into creative and quirky. He had macro mechanics that rivaled the best players, but his usage of queens and unusual Hive-tech ZvZ strategies earned him the respect of his peers and opened the eyes of the progaming community to new ideas.
Effort and Zero were tied for second best Zerg player at the time behind Jaedong because, let’s face it, everyone during 2009-2010 was overshadowed by Flash and Jaedong. But because they were considered second best, I don’t think they really got the attention they deserved. It really didn’t matter how good Zero’s muta micro was or whether he used queens when Jaedong was smashing nerds left and right.
What really kept Zero from ascending to the throne, though, was his tendency to choke in high stakes situations. A poor performance against Luxury (who, with all respect, was actually a very good ZvZ player) in the semifinals of the 2009 Lost Saga MSL made it painfully aware that Zero was getting jittery from nerves on stage. Despite falling in Proleague performance, his individual performance improved greatly over 2009, but it always ended with him choking in what should have been his most comfortable matchups.
Finally, in the 2011 ABC Mart MSL, he was able to overcome Jaedong in the semifinals (a huge upset) and come face to face with godhood. And then Flash bludgeoned him to death in the finals.
Since then, he’s made numerous splashes in the late Kespa era as well as gathering strength as the most fearsome Zerg out there today, but one thing has always eluded Zero despite his world class skill: the gold medal in an offline event.
On Sponbbang for the last two months, it has been a direct tie between Zero and Light for second place behind Flash (because no one is ever going to catch up to Flash while he’s still living and playing Brood War), and right now, Zero looks like the stronger of the two. Clocking in a 61% overall win rate, Zero is an absolute monster online. His muta-heavy style is incredibly sharp, and the huge repertoire of strategies in his back pocket are mind-blowing and unpredictable.
In recent weeks, Terrans have begun to experiment with more Starport-heavy builds including Flash’s valk build that he showcased in the ASL as well as a 2-port wraith variant that Rush has been pioneering. Zero is certainly not invulnerable against these strategies, but he has been characteristically fighting back in unique ways such as using queen Ensnares to slow down and reveal wraiths or small muta/ling turret dives to open up the Terran base more quickly. I have noticed that he tends to fall apart if his game plan is discovered and his greed is exposed, and should Light be able to exploit that weakness, there’s a good chance that he could force Zero to play on his terms.
But even if Zero is forced into a standard macro-fest with tons of multi-tasking, he’s a player that’s up for the challenge. While he’s not the fastest player on earth, Zero’s clicks are super efficient in a very Flash-like way, which allows him to get a lot more done than other players.
Will it be enough though? No matter how good Zero is, no matter how well he’s playing right now, his biggest failure has always been his tendency to falter when everything is on the line. His career is pockmarked with chokes and near victories that fell below his standard. Will this be another repeat?
In my opinion, Light is just too good right now. Completely unconvinced by Light’s achievements, I’ve been watching him closely since he became the golden boy in KSL, and after the last few rounds, I’m fully convinced that Light is just on another level right now. Zero beat Flash, so logic would follow that he should be able to beat Light, but when it comes to playing against 2-hatch muta, no Terran seems more comfortable than Light.
The one thing that Zero does have going for him right now is the map pool and the map order. Getting Horizon Lunar Colony and Neo Sylphid right off the bat is a huge godsend, and if he starts the series off right, he could definitely get the leg up with a quick 2-0. I expect Light to wrestle control back in the next two maps, Hitchhiker and Match Point, but the last three maps are really anyone’s game.
Still, I think Light has the chops and the cunning to outsmart Zero at his own game and overwhelm him with sheer mechanics. If we’re lucky, Zero will avoid choking and still put up some fantastic games.
Light < ZerO on Horizon Lunar ColonyLight > ZerO on Neo SylphidLight > ZerO on HitchhikerLight > ZerO on Match PointLight > ZerO on Inner CovenLight > ZerO on EscaladeLight > ZerO on PolypoidLight takes the crown 4-1!
Light - This Place, This Time
I’ll spare you the lengthy expose about how Light turned from a mediocre offline performer to the kind of guy that has a shot at being the only back-to-back KSL and ASL champion. The reasons are twofold: we’ve already been through that, and more importantly, the fanbase seems to have largely recognized and come to terms with the fact that his victorious KSL run was not just a fluke. Even so, there were—and still are—those that have doubts about Lee Jae Ho’s chances of winning this ASL, myself included. But facts speak for themselves, and what we’ve seen this season from him has been nothing short of impressive.
What is more surprising, though, is that his approach to the game has not changed that much, if at all. It’s just refined. Light still exhibited his downright insane resilience in the face of aggression, especially pronounced in the mudfight low-eco games versus Stork on Sylphid and versus Soma on Polypoid. He still lost the former, true, but what was remarkable was his readiness to sacrifice part of his economy and happily indulge in scrappy duels of small-scale army maneuvering. We all know how good Light is when he gets his economic infrastructure going. For that matter, he lost a number of games in previous seasons by predictably going for greedy builds and getting punished by early aggression. But that glass jaw seems to have been taken care of.
Speaking about refining, something struck me as I watched him against Soma in the Ro4. We had just watched Flash go down against ZerO, arguably a victim of overintellectualization and preference for novel builds rather than standard play. Light was the complete opposite in his series. Soma threw a bunch of clever strategies at him which he just shrugged off with precisely executed, stock standard 2-rax-academy builds. That was the philosophy of Flash not too long ago, his credo: “Throw at me what you will; this is what I do, and I have mastered it, so I’ll win.” Granted, Light was willing to go for standard play and rely on his superior mechanics all too often in the past with mixed results (his loss to Where in KSL2 comes to mind). Now he’s apparently just better at it.
And it’s execution that makes Light really dangerous. He’s often been regarded as one of the most insanely aggressive TvZ players in the history of the game, not to mention a TvZ legend, but there’s more to that than just aggression. He’s incisive. He’s perfectly fine with parking a bunch of bio just in front of his natural for a while for tactical flexibility. He’ll sometimes patiently move around the map to assert map control and deny vision rather than seek engagements. And then he’d jump for the jugular with a quick succession of drops at different places or a crazy bait-and-switch two-pronged bust like he did versus Soma on Escalade.
This doesn’t mean Light’s not flexible strategically, though. Although sturdy bio play is his go-to in the matchup, he’s comfortable with 1-1-1 openers and mech builds, too, not to mention his taste for 2-port Wraith. Flash’s version of the valk/bio is also a possibility. The two games that Flash won with that build were absolute stomps, so I’d call the build quite viable. Just wondering what weapon from his considerable arsenal he’ll choose must be a serious burden for ZerO, who favors an intellectual approach to the game not unlike Flash’s.
None of the above is meant to say that Light comes into the matchup as a favorite. Frankly, even as I’m writing those lines, I have my doubts. ZerO is in insane shape right now. Light, for his part, does not fare too well with negative sponmatch win rates in April against most top Zergs including the newly returned hero. In fact, his most recent online results suspiciously suggest a slump, and the main reason I’m not writing him off completely is that Light had similar results before his match with Soma. ZerO’s offline experience dwarfs that of Soma, though, and his choking days are apparently gone.
Regarding maps, things are not looking too bright for Light. Horizon Lunar Colony has the potential to be a very bad map for Terran depending on spawns and Neo Sylphid has turned into a Terran graveyard this ASL with a score of 0-4. Inner Coven also appears to be problematic for Terran, even though Light himself has fared pretty well there. Online, he has decent win rates on most of those maps, but not against ZerO.
But Light most certainly possesses the fundamental skill set required to overcome his opponent. Tactics will very likely be the deciding factor in the series. Should ZerO zone him out with his impeccable mutalisk micro and movement, Light might find himself in dire straits. He needs to keep the means to leverage pressure for as long as possible and deny vision in particular.
All in all, this very much hangs in the balance for me, despite the stats mentioned earlier. The two players’ playstyles exacerbate the intrinsic volatility of the TvZ matchup, and more likely than not the victor will be decided by spur-of-the-moment tactical decisions.
Light can definitely take this. It will all be decided in this place, on this day, and it’s going to be an uphill battle for him. Also, it’s going to be awesome.
ZerO > Light on Horizon Lunar Colony
ZerO > Light on Neo Sylphid
ZerO < Light on Hitchhiker
ZerO > Light on Match Point
ZerO < Light on Inner Coven
ZerO > Light on Escalade
ZerO > Light on Polypoid
Zero takes the crown 4-2!
What is more surprising, though, is that his approach to the game has not changed that much, if at all. It’s just refined. Light still exhibited his downright insane resilience in the face of aggression, especially pronounced in the mudfight low-eco games versus Stork on Sylphid and versus Soma on Polypoid. He still lost the former, true, but what was remarkable was his readiness to sacrifice part of his economy and happily indulge in scrappy duels of small-scale army maneuvering. We all know how good Light is when he gets his economic infrastructure going. For that matter, he lost a number of games in previous seasons by predictably going for greedy builds and getting punished by early aggression. But that glass jaw seems to have been taken care of.
Speaking about refining, something struck me as I watched him against Soma in the Ro4. We had just watched Flash go down against ZerO, arguably a victim of overintellectualization and preference for novel builds rather than standard play. Light was the complete opposite in his series. Soma threw a bunch of clever strategies at him which he just shrugged off with precisely executed, stock standard 2-rax-academy builds. That was the philosophy of Flash not too long ago, his credo: “Throw at me what you will; this is what I do, and I have mastered it, so I’ll win.” Granted, Light was willing to go for standard play and rely on his superior mechanics all too often in the past with mixed results (his loss to Where in KSL2 comes to mind). Now he’s apparently just better at it.
And it’s execution that makes Light really dangerous. He’s often been regarded as one of the most insanely aggressive TvZ players in the history of the game, not to mention a TvZ legend, but there’s more to that than just aggression. He’s incisive. He’s perfectly fine with parking a bunch of bio just in front of his natural for a while for tactical flexibility. He’ll sometimes patiently move around the map to assert map control and deny vision rather than seek engagements. And then he’d jump for the jugular with a quick succession of drops at different places or a crazy bait-and-switch two-pronged bust like he did versus Soma on Escalade.
This doesn’t mean Light’s not flexible strategically, though. Although sturdy bio play is his go-to in the matchup, he’s comfortable with 1-1-1 openers and mech builds, too, not to mention his taste for 2-port Wraith. Flash’s version of the valk/bio is also a possibility. The two games that Flash won with that build were absolute stomps, so I’d call the build quite viable. Just wondering what weapon from his considerable arsenal he’ll choose must be a serious burden for ZerO, who favors an intellectual approach to the game not unlike Flash’s.
None of the above is meant to say that Light comes into the matchup as a favorite. Frankly, even as I’m writing those lines, I have my doubts. ZerO is in insane shape right now. Light, for his part, does not fare too well with negative sponmatch win rates in April against most top Zergs including the newly returned hero. In fact, his most recent online results suspiciously suggest a slump, and the main reason I’m not writing him off completely is that Light had similar results before his match with Soma. ZerO’s offline experience dwarfs that of Soma, though, and his choking days are apparently gone.
Regarding maps, things are not looking too bright for Light. Horizon Lunar Colony has the potential to be a very bad map for Terran depending on spawns and Neo Sylphid has turned into a Terran graveyard this ASL with a score of 0-4. Inner Coven also appears to be problematic for Terran, even though Light himself has fared pretty well there. Online, he has decent win rates on most of those maps, but not against ZerO.
But Light most certainly possesses the fundamental skill set required to overcome his opponent. Tactics will very likely be the deciding factor in the series. Should ZerO zone him out with his impeccable mutalisk micro and movement, Light might find himself in dire straits. He needs to keep the means to leverage pressure for as long as possible and deny vision in particular.
All in all, this very much hangs in the balance for me, despite the stats mentioned earlier. The two players’ playstyles exacerbate the intrinsic volatility of the TvZ matchup, and more likely than not the victor will be decided by spur-of-the-moment tactical decisions.
Light can definitely take this. It will all be decided in this place, on this day, and it’s going to be an uphill battle for him. Also, it’s going to be awesome.
ZerO > Light on Horizon Lunar ColonyZerO > Light on Neo SylphidZerO < Light on HitchhikerZerO > Light on Match PointZerO < Light on Inner CovenZerO > Light on EscaladeZerO > Light on PolypoidZero takes the crown 4-2!
Staff Predictions
Blind-Rawr
Light 4-2
v1
Zero 4-2
FlashFTW
Zero 4-3
BisuDagger
Light 4-2
BigFan
Light 4-1
GTR
Light 4-3
Qikz
Zero 4-2
2pacalypse
Light 4-3
EsportsJohn
Light 4-1
Ziggy
Light 4-1
Light 4-2
v1
Zero 4-2
FlashFTW
Zero 4-3
BisuDagger
Light 4-2
BigFan
Light 4-1
GTR
Light 4-3
Qikz
Zero 4-2
2pacalypse
Light 4-3
EsportsJohn
Light 4-1
Ziggy
Light 4-1
