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[ASL5] Ro16 Preview Pt. 2 - Zerg Territory

Forum Index > BW General
9 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL5] Ro16 Preview Pt. 2 - Zerg Territory

Text byBigFan
Graphics byv1
April 15th, 2018 05:48 GMT
logo
Feels like it's been ages since we've seen some ASL. Of course that's a bit of an exaggeration, but having an off week with little Korean BW always tends to feel the same way. We're already halfway through the Ro16 and have already witnessed Flash and his dominating performance in group A over the likes of Mind and Shine. Mind advanced in second place, defeating Shine and showing a solid game in the finals' match.

The second group was a bit more interesting. Hero showed a fantastic game against Best and an interesting one against Snow on Third World. Stork was unfortunately eliminated in last place despite trying his hardest while Best and Snow tussled for the last spot. Unfortunately for SKT T1 fans, Snow was the final victor and advanced in second place. For a recap of the games, please read the recaps of Group A and B written by c3rberUs and Ty2 respectively!

Group C featuring Jaedong, Larva, EffOrt and Shuttle is set to start in and has been previewed by BLinD-RawR while group D featuring Rain, Action, Mini and Movie, previewed by Ty2 will start 2 days after. Let's get hyped!

Table of contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Group A Recap
  • Group B Recap
  •  
  • Group C Preview
  • Group D Preview
  •  
  • (Wiki)Liquipedia
Group A Recap

Flash et al.

It's been quite a while since I last wrote about StarCraft so bear with me as I shake off the rust and retread the waters of Brood War. The first match was on Transistor between Afreeca's darling (T)Flash and Afreeca's not so darling, (T)Mind. In this game, FlaSh went for a 3-factory into starport play and gained the initiative early, netting SCV kills with superior vulture numbers against Mind's more wraith-paranoid 2-factory armory. Then the game shifted focus, to the middle area of the map while both players took their third bases. With FlaSh setting the pace, he chased Mind off the middle of the map after several engagements and began to swing for the high ground area beside Mind's third. The battle here was desperate and you know it when SCVs were levied for a fight this early. But none of it was enough because FlaSh was a step ahead. When all of his mech were wiped out, his wraiths came down swooping on the helpless mech of Mind and it was over.


You just can't get the upper hand on FlaSh

Now for the second mirror. Also on Transistor, it featured the Bag, (Z)Shine versus the lesser known player, (Z)Where (better known as MisO to others). Now the objective in ZvZ is to make mutas, dance them around and force a GG out of the other guy. But there are also times when one player goes for a risky, quick mutalisk build hoping to catch the player who went for a quick expansion after pool by surprise. Shine, who was the latter player however, did some simple math. Add lots of zerglings to two ramps and little defense and you get a banquet of drones for all those ravenous claws. Well that and three mutas, but it didn't matter because Shine was already prepared for that with spore colonies at his two hatcheries.

And now the winners of the first two matches collide. Watching this game, it felt like I was shot back to the year 2000 with both players showcasing 1-base tech builds, but with obviously modern mechanics and control. Now, FlaSh started off with his 1-1-1 build while Shine went for a 2-hatch lurker build - which was scouted. Now I'm probably too low level to say with a significant amount of certainty if it had any impact, but FlaSh was prepared with his favorite turrets and scan. The attack commenced and it went well for Shine in the opening seconds; his zerglings abused the narrow pathways of Third World's asphalt area to impede vulture counterattacks. Then three lurkers were able to tear a hole in FlaSh's wall-in and get through, but that's how far it went because FlaSh was able to minimize the damage. FlaSh then sprung back, this time with wraiths and harassed Shine's inferior economy. In line with many of the games in 2000, this harassment was fatal and FlaSh secured the win and a seat in the round of 8.


FlaSh built a wall and the Shine paid for it. Yes, I'll see myself out now.

The loser's game was hands down more fleshed out; going higher up the tech tree and with better economies for both players. Despite that, the game was all Mind. Mind started off with a 1-1-1 opener, but delayed his first valkyrie in favor of getting a few extra wraiths first to haggle over the airspace over Where's third. Where was doing 3-base 3-hatchery mutalisk and he repelled Mind back to his base but could not go any further due to the turrets and the arrival of valkyries. Mind then massed bio units and swung to Where's natural. This valkonic force then proceeded to tackle layers of sunken defenses and a dousing of guardians. Although it took a renewed effort as the guardians and then ultralisks came into play, Mind was able to chew off Where's natural expo, besiege the main base before finally going up the ramp and forcing the GG.

So, this was a WeMadeFox ex-teammate-teamkill match on Gladiator to determine the second player to go the next round. This was a rather quick match and painfully quick if you are a fan of the Bag. Shine went for a totally normal 3-hatchery mutalisk build and fended off a sunken break attempt from Mind off of a barracks fast expand. But Shine doesn't like things to be normally mundane, so instead of the usual transition to a third base defense with lurkers, why not attack with the lurkers instead. So he got drop upgrades, morphed lurkers in the best spot possible (reference picture below) and 1-inch dropped Mind.

[image loading]

Yellow - the location Mind scanned
Red - the location of the lurker loaded overlords

Except the lurkers didn't drop; instead, the overlords were eaten alive by a hail of bullets. The show continued and all the murderous got murdered, but reinforcements called up by Mind showed up and forced Shine to back off for good. After that, Mind did not waste much time. He took his midgame bio push troops along with tanks and vessels and promptly stomped Shine's inadequate natural expansion defense. Shine typed out and sent Mind to the Round of 8.

(T)Flash and (T)Mind advanced to the quarterfinals!

Group B Recap

I like Hero

Game 1: Hero vs. Best on Transistor
(Z)hero spawns in the top right and (P)Best spawns in the bottom right. Hero goes for a 12 Hatch against Best's 1 Gate Fast Expand. Thanks to the large rush distance, Best only manages to parade his first zealot in an empty show of force that quickly goes awry. On its way back, Hero's first 6 zerglings get a full surround, springing Best into chaos. In a hairpulling frenzy, Best pulls a handful of probes with a zealot to defend the zerglings, losing a few probes in the process.

The game moves swimmingly in Hero's favor as he comfortably expands and drones, each second leaving Best further behind. Hero's accompanying scourge and muta with +1 air carapace competes for air dominance against Best's corsair and reaver army.

Best, now accumulating a fair corsair count makes his move. Crawling deeper into the belly of the beast, Best skirts along the edge of the map cautiously. Best's forces snap into action, unloading the pivotal reaver and two zealots to do what damage they can. However, Hero far ahead of Best, springs his trap in excellent anticipation. In rapid fire sequence, Hero burrows his drones from harm, and swoops in with Mutas and Scourge.

[image loading]

In an instantaneous and almost underwhelmingly gentle plume of smoke, several corsairs die at once.

Best, depite suffering heavy losses, still has a third base and his signature macro to lean on. However, even Best can't outpace a Zerg with a virtually untouched economy. He makes a valiant last stand into Hero's territory, desperate to slow down the Zerg juggernaut.

[image loading]

What was once a noble effort quickly turns to tragedy as the Protoss forces crumble against the overwhelming number of Zerg units. A neverending stream, Best's reserve forces are left to look on in the distance of the fate that awaits them. Hero, running on full steam inevitably overwhelms Best, ripping victory away from Best's sweaty butterfinger hands.

Game 2: Snow vs. Stork on Transistor
In the next match, (P)Stork spawns in the 9 o'Clock and (P)Snow spawns in the bottom right. The game begins calmly as both players opt for 1 Gate Fast Expand. Snow takes the role of the aggressor, but Stork maneuvers his units well, losing only one probe.

As both players steadily build up, tensions can only last so long as trouble is abrewing. Taking the helm is mastermind Snow, making two stunning robotics facilities. Snow's elaborate attack of shuttles, reavers, and his ground army, even when predicted by Stork, manage to set foot into Stork's base. In a wild juggling act, Snow makes the impossible possible:


Victory pulled from beneath Stork's feet, the neverending elevator of units crawls its way to the main base. At a loss for words, Stork concedes, as Snow wins in style.

Winners' Match: hero vs. Snow on Third World
Spawning in the top right in blue is Hero, Protoss dominator. In the opposite corner spawns in red, Snow, micro master. Hero places his second hatchery at his third on the other side. Snow feigns a cannon rush when he's really going 1 Gate Fast Expand, prompting Hero to pull drones. Hero makes a sunken in his main base as he quickly techs to spire.

Hero, abandoning his natural, continues expanding in the remote other side, complimenting his mass muta and scourge army. Snow, not leaving Hero alone, wants to take the battle to Zerg with corsair reaver. Hero has other ideas though, striking first. He charges in head first with mutas as his perfectly spread scourge enshroud the awkwardly placed corsair fleet.

[image loading]

Out of a nearly dozen corsairs, 3 remain. Mutas still intact, the scourge continue to funnel in as Snow is reduced to using an archon to stabilize. Snow's main base is soon overrun by mutas as his counter reaver drop does little to redeem his situation. Snow taps out!

Losers' Match: Stork vs. Best on Third World
Stork spawns in the bottom left and Best spawns in the top right. The game is off to a steady start as both players go fast robotics facility into reaver. Progressing swiftly into the mid-game, some breath-holding reaver plays are made that amount to nothing ultimately. Best takes the first shot, taking a disastrous engagement near Stork's natural. Stork, seizing the moment, quickly charges into Best's natural before meeting the same fate as Best had seconds before. In a slapstick tug of war, Stork ultimately gets the slightly shorter end of the stick.

All of a sudden, Best's reavers make a surprise appearance in Stork's main base much to the probes' dismay.


Stork behind at 25 supply frantically attempts his own reaver highlight. In the attempt he only manages to kill a meager four or five probes and a very red shuttle.

Best moves in for the kill at Stork's natural. Storms, reavers, and speedlots galore, Stork, even with dragoons cutely placed on the high ground only sinks lower.

[image loading]

A last wave of storms and archons killing stacked probes seals the deal as Best wins.

Final Match: Best vs. Snow on Gladiator
Snow spawns in the bottom left and Best spawns in the top left. Best opens DTs against the robotics facility classic of Snow. Attempting to subvert the main army, Best maneuvers his first two DTs around Snow's main army with an accompanying observer. However, Snow one ups Best, successfully spotting and defending the DTs. On the other side of the map, Snow has forced Best to cancel his expansion and has him contained from the top of his ramp.

Best quickly loses his momentum as an emergency evacuation attempt is unable to subvert Snow's watchful eye. With each shuttle ferry intercepted, Best's options grow limited. Biting the bullet, Best does a head-on charge up the ramp. He finally breaks the contain with speedlots, but not without sustaining a painful amount of casualties. Meanwhile, Snow's expansion had been operating the entire time, pulling Snow farther ahead with each precious second. Snow, carefully subduing the raging bull, Best, has him tiwrled around his finger, knowing Best's only option is to attack.

[image loading]

In the resulting battle, Snow comes out on top, sealing his road to the ro8.

(Z)hero and (P)Snow advanced to the quarterfinals!

Group D Preview

Shuttle Requesting Evac From The Swarm

The Group of death of the season with three of the very best players currently in the Post-KESPA, the darling of the internet (Z)Larva, the absolute legends (Z)Jaedong and (Z)EffOrt, and the lone Protoss of the group (P)Shuttle.

The Brood Wars:
For all their stability when it comes to their play against other races, Jaedong and Larva have been taken down to losers/final game of their group stages over the last five seasons because of the zerg mirror. For example, Jaedong last season lost to (Z)Soulkey in the winner’s game in the Ro16 and Larva was thrown off the ASL3 track by a Ro24 encounter with (Z)HyuN and EffOrt who was one of the favorites to get out of the all Zerg group of last season.

I would like to say I really hate that there's no Sparkle in the Ro16, this group would be more fun if it had it

Jaedong has been playing ZvZ almost exclusively since the group selection with sponmatches against Soulkey, (Z)Action and (Z)hero, the former two with whom he has a winning record against and the last of which he has a perfect 50-50 record showing how much Jaedong really wants to get back that automatic win JvZ state form. It also means that he's well prepared for the likelihood of having to play all three possible ZvZ matches in the group.

Larva has also been putting in a lot of ZvZ sponmatch games however, unlike Jaedong, he's been having mostly losing records against his opponents, and while in the last ASL Larva has managed to overcome his historically weak ZvZ in the group stages, it's still very much a cause for concern. His best path of advancing to the bracket stages lies on him at least getting a match against Shuttle and avoiding the three ZvZ situation. Ideally, he wins his match against Jaedong on Transistor and beats Shuttle on Third World.

(Z)EffOrt compared to Jaedong and Larva has had very little ZvZ practice. In fact, most of his ZvZs come from just one day (Thursday, April 12th) which leads me to believe that he is most likely preparing a special strategy for Larva and Jaedong and all the while putting in a lot more focus over securing a win against Shuttle first. EffOrt would much rather play against Larva than Jaedong.

The Fall of Antioch
Despite having to play only one matchup, Shuttle has a less than 50% win ratio against Zerg in April, making it very hard especially in this group against Zergs who have always been more dominant against Protoss. Although, in his win record is the only 2 games he played against jaedong this month. His opening match against EffOrt can make or break his run. Transistor is the hardest map for him and he has a good record on Third World so far in sponmatches, so being in the winners' match and taking advantage of this is the best course of action for Shuttle.

How I imagine Shuttle right now


(Z)Jaedong < Transistor > (Z)Larva
(Z)EffOrt < Transistor > (P)Shuttle
(Z)Jaedong < Third World > (Z)EffOrt
(Z)Larva < Third World > (P)Shuttle
(Z)Larva < Gladiator > (Z)EffOrt (This is honestly a tossup)

Head: (Z)Jaedong and (Z)EffOrt to advance to the quarterfinals!
Heart: (Z)Jaedong and (Z)Larva to advance to the quarterfinals!

Group E Preview

Action is Handsome

Group D is at first glance unexciting, a shoddy bird's nest of icky brown twigs that nestles ickier brown eggs speckled with mediocrity. However, looking at the changes in the players over the last few months uncovers golden yolks.

The frontrunner of the group is arguably (Z)Action. Many people probably gasp at the thought, since (P)Rain, more infatuated with watching girls and his talkshow endeavors, is the second best protoss behind (P)Snow. However, even second place isn't much to talk about as Protoss has been playing third fiddle in today's scene.

This month alone in sponsored games, Rain has a paltry 23 wins and 26 losses accumulated. However, the results behind tell the clearer story. In preparation for his upcoming match, he's played mostly PvZs. He surprisingly has winning records by slight margins over the top Zergs, including (Z)Larva, (Z)Soulkey, and (Z)EffOrt.

Action, on the other hand, always known as a sub-tier 3 zerg has been putting in the work. Taking up sponsored games left and right, he has played so far the most games in 14 days with 157 games total. In ZvP he has the winning records 13:11 vs. (P)Best and 29:21 vs. (P)Shuttle. Most notably, he is 9:11 vs. Snow, the 2nd ranked player in ELO this month. To count Action out would be a grave mistake.

Naysayers may be skeptical, remembering his awfully underwhelming defeat against Snow in the Ro24. However, as the quality of his stream games show, Action is regaining his old form from when he was capable of taking games off the likes of (P)Bisu, (T)Sea, and (P)Movie at the height of their level.

Singing Action's praises however is not meant to dismiss Rain. Rain as a whole stands as not just a player, but a symbol of the Protoss race. With Bisu gone to the military, the youthful and eager hands of Rain are more than capable of taking the reins of Protoss. Players took note of him in the previous ASL as a serious contender to (T)Flash, outdoing even Bisu. Rain was the new hope, an emblem of talent and youth. However, his run in ASL 4 was stopped short with strategical blunder after blunder versus Larva's turtle zerg in the ro8.

Rain now has a second chance debuting in today's group. Unfortunately, he has since taken a backseat from his dominating form to a respectable, slightly above 50% winrate among the top players. However, with Rain, to come out and in the progaming scene and produce immaculate results, screams talent. He has a knack for showcasing a deadly form of Protoss with the same precision and deadliness that matches, and perhaps even exceeds Bisu's. Whether he'll regain that form and motivation to practice for ASL is questionable.

On the other side of the spectrum of standout, lurks the eerie and mysterious. Movie, the little known dark horse has laid dormant for months. He was known as one of the most successful Protosses of his shortlived generation and being unusually good at PvZ. Entertaining his stream for months, he became inactive before making a breakout performance, qualifying for the ASL and defeating Sea and (P)Pusan. While a smart player, his strategic ability is not exceptional compared to the bigger pool of players and his mechanics may fail him. Overall, he's an entire leg and a half below the rest of his group members, so I don't have high hopes.

As for Movie's competitor, (P)Mini, while better, is heavily polarizing in his play. He's known for his micro and reaver play that now after witnessing Snow's greatness, has me question what reaver micro truly is. While having a decent early and midgame, Mini's fault, in stark contrast to Snow, lies in his lack of strategical prowess. While great at gaining early leads, time and time again a lesser than good late game has reversed Mini's fortunes, especially in PvT, from sealing the deal as a truly well rounded Protoss. Seeing him get out of the group though is possible considering there are no Terrans. As long as he presses his early and midgame to gain humongous advantages, Mini can win.

Predictions:
(Z)Action > (P)Rain
(P)Mini > (P)Movie
(Z)Action > (P)Mini
(P)Rain > (P)Movie
(P)Rain > (P)Mini

(Z)Action and (P)Rain to advance to the quarterfinals!



Writers: c3rberUs, Ty2, BLinD-RawR, BigFan
Graphics: v1
Editors: BigFan
Photo Credits: Blizzard
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Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
April 15 2018 06:40 GMT
#2
Jaedong hwaiting
Что?
HerbMon
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States465 Posts
April 15 2018 07:40 GMT
#3
Great write up everyone. ^.^
How we will win in the period ahead.
arbiter_md
Profile Joined February 2008
Moldova1219 Posts
April 15 2018 07:43 GMT
#4
We are heading towards 4 zerg, 2 terrans and 2 protoss in ro8, and most probably 1 terran + 3 zergs in ro4.
The copyright of this post belongs solely to me. Nobody else, not teamliquid, not greetech and not even blizzard have any share of this copyright. You can copy, distribute, use in commercial purposes the content of this post or parts of it freely.
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
April 15 2018 08:45 GMT
#5
My bets are JD/Effort and Rain/Mini.
The heart's eternal vow
ChriS-X
Profile Joined June 2011
Malaysia1374 Posts
April 15 2018 13:47 GMT
#6
let's go mafia zerg!
curufinwe_wins
Profile Joined August 2017
68 Posts
April 15 2018 19:22 GMT
#7
shuttle man.
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-16 07:45:05
April 16 2018 07:44 GMT
#8
On April 15 2018 17:45 PVJ wrote:
My bets are JD/Effort and Rain/Mini.

Welp. Awesome work, + Show Spoiler +
Shuttle
, well played! I wouldn't have ever imagined this and especially not in such spectacular fashion.
The heart's eternal vow
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
April 16 2018 09:36 GMT
#9
Snow is apparently following rain's footsteps and looking at chicks on afreeca Protoss is in good hands. Surely bisu is rolling in his foxhole.
Incomplete..ReV
Profile Joined August 2017
Norway637 Posts
April 17 2018 07:55 GMT
#10
Really nice write-up! Such nice play by Snow against Stork. If I ever tried something like that, I'd probably shoot a pylon (for some reason), try to save the reaver by putting it up in the shuttle, just to have it shot down with the reaver in it xD

Looking forward to today's games, even though PvP isn't exactly my favorite match up. It'll be nice to learn, though!
It's ok. I still love you <3
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