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SPL '10-'11 Year in Review, Part 2: How They Won

Forum Index > BW General
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1 2 Next All
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3615 Posts
November 19 2011 19:35 GMT
#1
When I wrote the first part of this, back in July, I was slightly nervous about disbandment rumors but was expecting a season more or less like the one last year. Then the rumors grew, and I held off writing this until I could tell how much relevance it would have.

Now we know.

WeMade is gone, OZ is game, MBCGame is gone, and the survivors are scattered to the four winds, the other teams – or the super squad overseen currently by KeSPA. The teams have changed and the formats have changed and the probabilities have changed. So instead of a detailed map for this next season, this eventually-completed section will simply be a quick run-down of last year's regular season successes, and the final part will deal with my thoughts on probable successes this season.


[image loading]



Last year broke down nicely into three equal-sized chunks: two double-rounds of Proleague format play bracketed one of Winners League format. We'll look quickly at Winners League first.

[image loading]
KT ran away with Winners League, 16-2.


The real question isn't how KT won the Winners League season, or even how they lost to T1 in the playoff final: the question is where this team was the rest of the season. Not only did (T)Flash do his Flash thing, (P)Stats stepped up like an ace, (Z)Action stayed positive, and (P)Violet was a solid presence before he was forced out. Four - even three - solid A class (minimum) players is more than anybody else mustered reliably except STX and CJ: but most of these guys' wins (except of course for Flash) came during the streak-rewarding WL season.

[image loading]
OZ's "pale imitation" produced a 12-6 record


The interesting thing to note here is that OZ, overall, played more evenly than KT across their top line. Of course, "evenly across the top" is not a good sign when it means (Z)Jaedong is playing down to (Z)Ever)Z(Killer's (ARGH fix TLPD BW names need priority especially over SC2 clowns who changed their IDs) level: OZ simply couldn't finish their kills. They posted two all-kills to KT's five, and with only the same number of 3-kills, 2-and-outs and worse were leaving the other ace(s) with that much more work to do, even when they didn't reduce OZ to playing (P)PerfectMan and (T)Lomo.




CJ and SKT put up 10-win records - which sounds pretty impressive in their own right, but only deserve a short footnote here because really 10-8 is only a game over 0.500. (P)Bisu (28 wins) and (T)Fantasy (19) carried T1 - no one else got more than 4 wins, and only (Z)s2 (4-3) even managed a positive record. CJ's record, as usual, speaks mainly to precise management. Even though (Z)Hydra and (P)Movie are not quite as good as the other team's 1-2s, CJ's losing players in WL only pulled down a total score of -5, leaving the aces with a lot of room for error.

KT's players with losing records posted a -8, and OZ's went -7: not bad. But SKT's bad players dropped a -19. Other teams were as bad or worse, but only SKT Bisu had the star power to pull through in the face of having his #2's wins erased by his own team. I hate Bisu as much as the next guy who doesn't root for SKT*, but he earned that Winners League trophy even if the team sucked.

* Actually this is a lie, I tend to root for him when he's not playing against Woongjin, KHAN, ACE, or another Protoss.




Proleague was a different matter. SKT and CJ dominated, posting the four best super-round records in the format: 16-2 (SKT), 13-5 (SKT), 12-6 (CJ), and 12-6 (CJ). No other team had a winning record on both ends, and only one team - Woongjin - managed 11-7.

Here are the players' records in chart form for each super-round:

[image loading]
Second Part of Proleague: SKT is 16-2


SKT's MVP was Bisu, hands down. I'm not sure which I find more shocking, though: how badly T1's Terrans did, or how well the Zergs did, while BeSt and By.Sun quietly did their bit as well. It's a testament to SKT's depth that despite a poor showing from fantasy they still managed that 16-2 record, which is, quite frankly, absurd in a league where anything above 10-8 is brilliant.

[image loading]
First Part of Proleague: SKT is 14-4


In contrast, SKT's first third of the season was more typical of a good proleague team: solid play from the aces, including Bisu's amazing run; and then near-average play from all the regulars. No surprises here.

If you want surprises, though...

[image loading]
Second Part of Proleague: CJ goes 12-6, posts a +24 games record.


The second half of the regular proleague schedule showed CJ Entus' philosophy on display at something very near perfection. While they didn't touch the heights of SKT's 16-2 run (or KT doing the same thing in Winners League), the team was managed brilliantly again: negative players by themselves only totaled a -4. Despite, again, slightly weaker ace play, there was simply no need for CJ to depend on the ungodly talents of a Flash or Jaedong: more than any other team in proleague, CJ exemplifies team play.

Not that they don't have good players...

[image loading]
First Part of Proleague: CJ was 12-6 here too.


To start the season, CJ's new super-team turned in a superb round, as Leta and Horang2 stepped in beside Hydra and Snow. Sure, the rest of the team wasn't bad either, but this first part of the season belonged to the big names.

[image loading]
Second Part of Proleague: Stars are 11-7


Despite the caption, and despite Soulkey's final emergence as a legitimate ace in his own right (instead of a streaky #2), the hype for this round really belongs to Light. Without the imported Terran ace, Woongjin does here what they did for most of the year: play mediocre, and probably miss the playoffs. I questioned the decision to trade Crazy-Hydra, but he was a net negative for KT during the season, and Light is a huge upgrade. Unfortunately for Woongjin, they didn't really have anything behind their three aces, and when they hit trouble in the playoffs, that was it.




Like me, you are probably looking at those five graphs and trying to determine any sort of a pattern. There are some things which are clear: to win, you need a true ace player, the guys who get called S-class (thus starting interminable arguments) or at least high A. Better yet, have two of them (unless your ace is Bisu or can carry a team similarly by himself).

The next thing we notice: you need other players who can win reliably. Every team – except Woongjin, the worst of our top five – had at least four players who stayed positive and won at least five games (over a spread of 18 matches).

The surprise, in fact, was that Woongjin is the ace-driven team, when we think of SKT, at least, as the home of the champions. Probably Bisu and fantasy are better overall than Woongjin's aces – but that third big name makes up for a lot.

The uncomfortable fact is that there's also a huge element of luck: while CJ posted a +24 round, and SKT's 16-2 run was +27 overall, that's unusual. Even these other three winning rounds, above-average performances from SKT, CJ, and Stars, had game +/- of +8, +9, and +14 - less than an extra win per match. With only barely that kind of edge, the line between 12-6 and even a "horrible" 6-12 is razor thin.




Part Three, an attempt to look at some of this data in terms of predicting next season, will be coming shortly. Apologies for the delays from Part 1!
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
Kiett
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States7639 Posts
November 19 2011 19:57 GMT
#2
Putting fantasy next to Bisu just makes the SKT charts look that much more amusing. None of this boring gradual downward slope stuff, we do this rollercoaster style.
Writer:o
MuK_x
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
743 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-19 20:15:54
November 19 2011 20:01 GMT
#3
CJ looks decent.
IdrA "TT1 actually fucked up and didn't see the hatchery,so im at a really big advantage right now,assuming he reacts intelligently which is not something you should assume with TT1"
vx70GTOJudgexv
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States3161 Posts
November 20 2011 13:25 GMT
#4
On November 20 2011 04:57 Kiett wrote:
Putting fantasy next to Bisu just makes the SKT charts look that much more amusing. None of this boring gradual downward slope stuff, we do this rollercoaster style.


So like watching Fantasy play in general?




Awesome stuff to see. CJ's graphs were especially interesting as to how they minimized their damage in a sense.
(-_-) BW for ever. #1 Iris fan.
ShadeR
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Australia7535 Posts
November 20 2011 14:10 GMT
#5
NJ. Like dem graphs.
konadora *
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Singapore66202 Posts
November 20 2011 14:29 GMT
#6
wow, I had no idea our team's Zergs stepped up THAT much...

SKT terrans seemed to suck because they only had one major Terran to use, and he was really a coin flip :<

Woongjin is the most surprising to me though, the top 3 players... wow sick. Free's performance really super disappointing, totally deserved the kick out of the 6 dragon team.
POGGERS
Chef
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
10810 Posts
November 20 2011 16:57 GMT
#7
Nice write up. Gives me a good idea of where the strong teams are standing and will make things more interesting to watch next week.
LEGEND!! LEGEND!!
Xiphos
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Canada7507 Posts
November 20 2011 17:17 GMT
#8
Part 3 should be CBNC, a review about the other teams.
2014 - ᕙ( •̀ل͜•́) ϡ Raise your bows brood warriors! ᕙ( •̀ل͜•́) ϡ
Navi
Profile Joined November 2009
5286 Posts
November 20 2011 17:17 GMT
#9
nice graph. the jump in success for KT and OZ when winner's league began made me :3

i would assume that team8's going to do good just based on the fact that most of their roster is probably quite "postive" on the above graphs, if previous record is any indicator of success
Hey! Listen!
slappy
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States1271 Posts
November 20 2011 17:30 GMT
#10
lol I forgot that Woonjin even had Really... he sucked a fat one last season. If him and Free can do what I know they're capable of then Woonjin will kick some serious ass
jaedong imba
Ikonn
Profile Joined October 2009
Netherlands1958 Posts
November 20 2011 17:32 GMT
#11
On November 21 2011 02:30 slappy wrote:
lol I forgot that Woonjin even had Really... he sucked a fat one last season. If him and Free can do what I know they're capable of then Woonjin will kick some serious ass


Really retired so that's going to be difficult
slappy
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States1271 Posts
November 20 2011 17:39 GMT
#12
On November 21 2011 02:32 Ikonn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2011 02:30 slappy wrote:
lol I forgot that Woonjin even had Really... he sucked a fat one last season. If him and Free can do what I know they're capable of then Woonjin will kick some serious ass


Really retired so that's going to be difficult


o shit I missed that news somehow.. Woonjin should have picked up Hiya TT
jaedong imba
bgx
Profile Joined August 2010
Poland6595 Posts
November 20 2011 17:50 GMT
#13
fantasy... wow, and soo :O
Stork[gm]
chongu
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Malaysia2589 Posts
November 20 2011 23:42 GMT
#14
OZ PLAYERS ARE EVENLY BALANCED WTFBBQ!!!! : O The rest was pretty expected. Stats doing well, fantasy not too well. Thx for the graphs : )

how do you make graphs that are so pretty?
SC2 is to BW, what coke is to wine.
Hinanawi
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States2250 Posts
November 20 2011 23:56 GMT
#15
Violet such a boss, KT would be so scary right now with Flash-Stats-Violet TPP combo.
Favorite progamers (in order): Flash, Stork, Violet, Sea. ||| Get better soon, Violet!
dRaW
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Canada5744 Posts
November 21 2011 00:14 GMT
#16
Simple KT has flash, only reason they won. Action is terrible, I don't understand how anyone can think otherwise. Perfective and Hoejja really stepped up to assist Flash in the end of the year though.
I don't need luck, luck is for noobs, good luck to you though
caileen
Profile Joined March 2011
Sweden28 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-21 00:17:27
November 21 2011 00:15 GMT
#17
On November 21 2011 02:39 slappy wrote:
o shit I missed that news somehow.. Woonjin should have picked up Hiya TT


That would make me lol because of woongjin terrans for a completely different reason!
<3 이영호
Dakkas
Profile Joined October 2010
2550 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-21 00:58:01
November 21 2011 00:57 GMT
#18
On November 21 2011 09:14 dRaW wrote:
Simple KT has flash, only reason they won. Action is terrible, I don't understand how anyone can think otherwise. Perfective and Hoejja really stepped up to assist Flash in the end of the year though.


Perfective? Stats is KT's second best player right now. He stepped up in the PL finals when it mattered most
Ikonn
Profile Joined October 2009
Netherlands1958 Posts
November 21 2011 01:28 GMT
#19
On November 21 2011 09:57 Dakkas wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2011 09:14 dRaW wrote:
Simple KT has flash, only reason they won. Action is terrible, I don't understand how anyone can think otherwise. Perfective and Hoejja really stepped up to assist Flash in the end of the year though.


Perfective? Stats is KT's second best player right now. He stepped up in the PL finals when it mattered most


Agreed about Stats but Perfective went 4-1 in playoffs so he did step up
Dakkas
Profile Joined October 2010
2550 Posts
November 21 2011 07:54 GMT
#20
On November 21 2011 10:28 Ikonn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2011 09:57 Dakkas wrote:
On November 21 2011 09:14 dRaW wrote:
Simple KT has flash, only reason they won. Action is terrible, I don't understand how anyone can think otherwise. Perfective and Hoejja really stepped up to assist Flash in the end of the year though.


Perfective? Stats is KT's second best player right now. He stepped up in the PL finals when it mattered most


Agreed about Stats but Perfective went 4-1 in playoffs so he did step up


Only in those 4 games, Stats has been sharing KT's burden with Flash for the year until Hoejja decided that he'll stop being a paewang
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