My Mafia Afterdeath Thoughts

Come, the day is calling,
Burn as if blown by the bellows.
Another set of clues has fallen,
Amid the deaths of our fellows.

Despite our enemies strength,
Most are quite hard to find.
So let us search at length;
Let us to their clues bind.

Instead of a red tomorrow,
Let us bring about our peace.
To win fully, not borrow,
All red activity to cease.

This I beg of you,
O town of Liquidia.

There isn't so much to tell here as one might think there would be. For the first half of the game or so, I only participated insofar as voting and doing very, very light clue working - I just wasn't as engaged as I thought I'd be. Then I came up as a suspect alongside MidnightGladius and suddenly found myself in a posting frenzy. I compiled all the voting records of the Mandalor listed people, and then tracked down BlindAlbino, as well as built clues up/mafia analysis all in a single night cycles work. Plexa started PMing me shortly after I pinned BlindAlbino, and soon after I got access to the list of people with roles and Ace's summary of roled-peoples' activities over the days. For example, he had recorded who protected who on what day for medics and the like.

When day came, I was not dead, and though MidnightGladius turned up green (it was being called a surety that one of us two was Mafia) I was pretty much confirmed innocent by my analysis work at this point.

After that, there isn't much to say. I would post clue interpretations and voting records in the thread and my blog, with Plexa occasionally PMing me to get my input on a suspect he, Camlito, and/or the two of them had come up with. There were plenty of PM's shuffled around, until I finally died off on the (surprisingly) late date of Day 9, a full three game days after I started my clue analysis. So far as I know, I never even had a medic on me, either. Initially, I believed I was dead anyway, so I told Plexa to just keep the medics on the important people. Then the following days medics started coming up short, and I just kept true to the idea that when they hit me. I'd probably have been dead if I had a medic, anyway, because probably stacked two hits on me. :p

I guess that sums it up!

I won't analyze clues as thoroughly, 'since there's nothing I can do about them anyway, but some things I noticed:

- Plans are being mentioned an awful lot at the beginning of those days in which Eddie is involved.
- "What he found was not normal to his eyes." seems to be a somewhat blatant clue.
- Retreat and panic are yet again mentioned in a paragraph involving Eddie.
- I have no idea what to think about the flying object.
- Blonde charging through the door and shattering all the windows indicates massive speed. This alongside "jetted" a few days ago and possibly the very early "swooped" all might indicate a fast moving flying object/creature.
- Huh. I wonder why Blonde is copying Cottonmouth.
- "in the shape of a pentagon" is way too specific to not be a clue.

I think Plexa is going the right direction in setting the town against GeneralStan. There are a ton of military references scattered throughout the Day posts, and he may very well be Eddie. That said, I disapprove of two of the three people he's suggesting lynching next day; I only agree with DamageControl. SMB doesn't have enough evidence against him and neither does Dr.Dragoon. I'd suggest Unforgiven_Ve at this point, considering that I really, honestly feel almost certain he is Joe now.

Shit, he was green. O well.

Kinda surreal that Plexa starts posting up old PM's (there were a lot going between us for awhile). Out of those three suspects he first posts, I still feel like Nightmare and DamageControl should be lynched. Bugzltoonl I have a feeling isn't mafia, his voting pattern just bugs me - I may well be wrong, however!

I think Plexa is talking about Infundibulum when he mentions this suspect he talked with be about a lot. I don't know for sure, but that's the only person I really recall him repeatedly bringing up.

This list:



I still stick by, excepting Eti307. ieatkids5 did turn up red, and I feel strongly that suresh0t and DamageControl are pretty much 100% at this moment. The other two (Ninja and Clazz) I would be perfectly fine with lynching, though I'm not sure if they'd turn up red or not.

And then:



L did turn up red, Ulszz turned up green - Out of all of those people, I would only feel comfortable lynching 0zc3z. I think he's got a decent chance of being Mafia, and he's in the Mandalor list which is presently inbetween 1/3 and 1/4 chance of randomly picking mafia with the known innocents removed from the list.

I reallllly don't think Plexa and Camlito are on the right track in regards to Blue being a lurker. It does absolutely nothing to explain Blue's consistent fumblings/breaking the weapons he uses, which I feel is a much more solid baseline for clues.

Though I do kinda feel like lynching jtan just to see what happens. :p

Personally, I'd suggest suresh0t and DamageControl for the double lynch the next day, seeing as they are who I feel most strongly are mafia.

O, and I think Plexa just gave Camlito away as his assistant...

~~~

I'm pretty sure Plexa is wrong. :/

"He peered over his shoulder to see that California Mountain Snake had thrown something at him. Unfortunately Dinmsab had no time to react as his head was sliced clean off by the object and he fell to the ground dead."

Clearly the same object thrown in Day 9, as it is almost phrased exactly the same, even though California Mountain Snake isn't mentioned in Day 9. This alone disproves his theory that clues are not scattered amongst the Day posts without linking to specific Mafia a la last game. I also strongly feel that the Mafia who left the break room in Day 4 referenced ieatkids5's laziness.

Damn I wish I wasn't dead. >_o

Current Suspect List:
+ Show Spoiler +

Yayyy, Plexa is pegging Unforgiven more conclusively! Haha at Unforgiven's style of denial - doesn't anyone ever learn?

Is it just me or is Nemy and Unforgiven tag teaming Plexa?

Nemy defended L, too.
...And Crazie-Penguin.

Either he's a cynic in regards to us finding Mafia or my earlier suspicions prove true and he is Mafia. I'm leaning towards Mafia. He's also accused Infundibulum, who is in the Showtime! list with him, and his second suspect is one of our claimed veterans, amongst which there is one fake, which Mafia would know.

Looking back through L's posting history, I think Shallow might be Mafia. L defends him repeatedly, and then when L went up to be lynched, Shallow voted to "fuck L with a rake" which is looking like fake hate to me.

Damn I wish I could talk. ;_;

Random clue notes:

- "what seemed like an eternity" seems like a hint here. I'm starting to suspect LTT for the role of Pink due to his profile quote.
- Orange seems to possibly be connected to two main themes - glass breaking and the cession/prevention of sound.
- The Wolf is most definitely suresh0t - Not only is ol' Wolfy hitting every punch, there are two references to the word target specifically (which could refer to Ziel if I'm wrong here), but he then administers drugs to GranDim.
- Huh! I definitely had doubts about Camlito's conclusions about Blue being a lurker before, but it seems pretty damned obvious after this day post! Blue is invisible, shoots out several blades which decapitate dogs, and is killed when he moves into the same line of fire that the dogs were in previously. Jtan or CDRdude fit nicely - leaning more towards CDRdude here for being in the Showtime! list and the long list of military references, including the very first one next to Mr. Blue's first appearance.

Blue being a lurker shoves Eti307 out of the suspect box, yet again. The vet problem remains unresolved:

Eti307
Artanis[xp]
Spoinka
Wysp
Bockit

One of these is Mafia, as one vet is dead and two others are innocent by lists, and there is an extra vet. Personally, I most suspect Wysp simply because he publically stated he took a hit, yet hasn't been killed off, though this is perhaps a strategic move by Mafia 'since they know one of their own in hiding amongst the Vets.

I loooove Plexa's lynch plan. I've wanted DamageControl to be put up for a long while now (100% on him) after Plexa initially presented the clues against him. Unforgiven has been on my suspect list for Joe for awhile as well, ever 'since the thumbs up, and Day 8's clues only strengthened that for me. I think double red will turn up if town follows this course.

Though from the looks of the thread, they may switch over to suresh0t instead of Unforgiven, which is more generally a surety, I suppose. Either way would be agreed upon by me.

Here's who I would lynch in order right now:

DamageControl
suresh0t
Unforgiven
CDRdude - If green then
jtan & Nightmare - If Nightmare is green then
Nemy

I'm tempted to PM Chuiu to beg to know the Mafia list right now, but I don't know if he'd let me know and I kinda don't want to ruin the fun for me of guessing. :p

On another note, the past two days Mafia have wisened up in regards to who they hit - they're taking down known innocents and people outside of the Showtime!/Mandalor list. I expect they'll focus at least 3 of their next volley on Plexa. With him and I both gone, they'll figure (and be correct in) that town will lose cohesion through cluework. Hopefully someone (looking at you Camlito/qrs) will pick up the slack if that occurs.

Other people in the firing line:

imDerek (Innocent by two lists, and a medic - I would strongly recommend protecting him next phase)
rpf (Veteran, hasn't been hit yet so far as I know, so should absorb the hit)
unsoundlogic

God I want to point this out to Plexa so badly in case it's overlooked. With GranDim's death, losing another medic right now can not be allowed to happen.

~~~~~~

Haha, interesting gambit by Unforgiven here! I wonder who he's going to list. He's almost certain to get lynched unless something wild happens and Mafia outvotes town (may be possible given the inactivity of town and some uncoordinated voters). That means if he is red, anyone he lists is, perhaps to Mafia minds, automatically non-suspect due to a Mafia making a case against them. That being the case, if he's clever, he'll take some (not all or the strongest) suspects that have already had cases made against them that he knows are innocent and put them out there, as well as sneak in a few real Mafia in hopes of clearing them of suspicion when he turns up red.

This is all assuming he is Mafia, which I am at this point rather certain of.

"lucky hits"

Mafia or dumb townie - either way, lynchtime! And still no suspect list!

~~~~~~

Scorch just said what I was about to type up here - there seems to be a sudden movement towards lynching Ninja4ever. in the voting thread with little discussion in the main thread, yet people are also still voting for DamageControl. Now, I believe DamageControl is red still, so I think those voting DamageControl/Ninja may be Mafia trying to save at least one of their own. It would make sense to still vote for one suspect (the more firmly established one in town eyes) over the other as to allay some suspicions, and Ninja has been on the docket for lynching for awhile. This makes it seem like Ninja is probably not Mafia, which I had already suspected given the numerous inconsistencies attributed to Mr. Blonde's actions. The main possible motive I can see for this, if they are both red, is that Unforgiven is the saboteur.

If the scenario turns up with Damage as green and Ninja as red, this could be a multi-faceted push by Mafia:

- First, there's the point of Ninja being stronger in some town eyes than Unforgiven.
- Secondly, it could be used as a tool to discredit Plexa some - the person he pushes to be lynched is innocent, while the person the town chooses instead of his other suspect turns up red.
- Thirdly, as a result of the above, Unforgiven and possibly others on Plexa's suspect list may be cleared of suspicions, and then Mafia are more free to push at people who they know are innocent.

This, of course, may just be a lot of paranoia seeping through.

By the by, I have been somewhat suspicious of Bockit for awhile. He's one of our claimed vets, he has a strange voting/posting pattern, and there was the towel mentioned a long time back. Absolutely nothing concrete against him, but I just have this feeling. (I did about Naib, too, though, and that turned out completely wrong XD)

Yayyy! DamageControl turning up green is surprising (realllly thought he was Mr. Black), but at least Unforgiven still turned up red. This puts my personal suspects record to 5 of 9 (thanks to General and Damage coming up green) confirmed Mafia.

I think town needs to keep in mind who voted Damage and didn't vote Unforgiven. This is definitely not to say that everyone voted this way should be under fire, but I feel that these people should be under additional scrutiny. They are:

Unforgiven himself (just a note)
Randombum (Also voted for by Unforgiven! YET ANOTHER)
KF91
Bockit
Clazziquai
BWdero
HotZhot
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SpiritoftheTuna

Among them are suspicious characters Clazziquai, Infundibulum, and Randombum.

Note that the case against Randombum is only getting stronger and stronger with the addition of Unforgiven to the known Mafia list, as this makes 5 out of the 9 known Mafia who voted for him, and almost got him into the mayoral spot instead of Ace.

With Plexa gone, Mafia will undoubtably make a move to try to push someone they know is innocent, but has lots of evidence against to be lynched by the town. Likely candidates include Clazziquai and Ninja4ever, as I'm doubting their being Mafia at the moment, yet they are both top suspects. If we see a bunch/one of these people who have only really recently become active (Nemy, Bockit, Infundibulum, araav, Artanis) start pushing for one of the above two suspects, I would question their motives and they would be more suspect to me.

As for townside, I think qrs or Camlito will push for suresh0t or jtan, respectively. Of the two, I'd prefer town rally against suresh0t, as he's the only person left among my suspects who I feel 100% sure is Mafia.

Newly up there is now BWdero, which I'm sure Pink will push for come Day. I'm worried that we'll see town split into three (or four if Mafia pushes for one on their own) groups of votes, giving Mafia the resources to pool their own votes into an innocent lynch.

As for Dero as a suspect himself, voting record is very suspect, but I'm not convinced by the clues. The sadist element is definitely there, but all the other stuff is suspect, especially given that Pink misinterpreted the part about Pink being short. The townie wasn't knocked down, the townie was the one who knocked down someone.

Now what the hell is Pink talking about? If he's accusing qrs, he's seriously short-sighted.

Ok, he is accusing qrs. I think he's making some good connections to the quote, but I think they're wrong, regardless. Wolf has consistently been targetting/hitting things all the time, and the drug reference at the end of the last day post puts it over the top for me in regards to suresh0t. I like that Pink is trying to make connections here, but I think he's pointing at the wrong people.

O, Ace, c'mon...Mafia didn't kill me for three Day phases, I never took a single hit before then, I specifically put out clue analysis that took (or in the case of L, helped take) down four of their number, and targetted at least one other (Unforgiven) before I got killed. qrs has no case against him when you consider that, other than Pink's analysis, which I feel is faulty.

I don't like where this is leading at all. Hopefully qrs, Scorch, Camlito, or one of the other townies will note my late death and convince Ace of a plan to systematically track Wolf down, by eliminating the stronger suspect of suresh0t first. I'm almost certain that Mafia (or someone) will put up Clazziquai and/or Ninja4ever. come Day, and that division will happen. Unless, of course, Ace hops onto Pink's train and town and Mafia alike take down qrs.

Plexa's back! I think he may be only partially right in regards to Unforgiven attempting to set town sights on suresh0t, Ninja, and Nightmare. He could easily have set it up to make them appear innocent 'since he knew he was in town's sights. I personally think Nightmare and Ninja are innocent and suresh0t is not, as twice now he has been accused by a Mafia (Blind first, now Unforgiven) shortly before their deaths, which I believe to be a feint. I also think that Nemy is Mr. Brown now, again. The duality in a lot of the day posts (Blonde mirroring Cottonmouth is a big one) alongside the fact that he defended Crazie, L, and Unforgiven makes him very suspect to me.

Ah, Scorch and qrs have reached the same conclusions as I had. Good stuff. Now all someone has to do is point out that Unforgiven also voted for Randombum and I'll be content for the moment about being dead. :p

I think Plexa might finally go down tonight. Based on previous Mafia patterns, I think there's about a 30% chance they'll hit random people from Mandalor/Non-Mandalor list and 70% chance they'll stack enough hits on Plexa for it to be a sure kill (3 medics living vs 5 killing power). The surety of Plexa being killed is enhanced by his representing town cohesion, him still analyzing clues, and the fact that they hit him three times the last night phase.

If Plexa goes down, Camlito is supposed to be in line to take his place, but he hasn't been exposed enough to take the reigns, I don't believe. I think town will rally behind Ace, who will be essentially picking and choosing from other people's interpretations. Not a bad thing, mind, but I think some strong-willed people (I'm looking at you, qrs) will take up their own causes and town votes will start splitting more than they used to.

HOLY FUCK

Medic, Vigi, Bodyguard, Medic. Now, Pink and More_Minerals were obvious, and I suppose Mafia could have found butidigress from the clues...But, how did they find Hollander? They probably held all these blue kills for a critical moment, to spread doubt about town leaders innocence and eliminate four people we already knew were innocent, so the three lists wouldn't shrink down. Smart move. The big question for me right now is, who is orchestrating it all?

Maybe posting the town role list on the forums was a bad idea...

Notes:

- Well, we finally know for sure it's a metal disc that California uses.
- Eddie is restraining people often, both Mafia and innocents alike.
- Black is connected to odors and/or garbage. This is seen in his being near a dumpster and using trash to lure someone in previously.
- I still think Wolf is suresh0t, with Ziel as back-up if he's not.
- Blue keeps killing people through different shredding methods. Perhaps still referencing to lurker spines, but maybe the inconsistencies are key to finding him. This is especially relevant if Chuiu is using different acronyms/meanings of the same name, having little else to go on.

Based on hunches and initial reactions, and the fact that my opinions don't have to be backed by facts at this point to state, I think Bockit, Shallow, and Randombum are Mafia. Just a gut feeling looking at behaviors.

My new lynching list, in order of priorities: (Five suspects from Mandalor list, which would be 5/7 accounted for if all turn red.)

suresh0t
Nemy
jtan
0cz3c
Clazziquai
JimTudor
Bockit
Shallow[Bay]
Randombum

If the suresh0t, Nemy and/or JimTudor are innocent, then:

CDRdude - If Nemy & jtan are green
Ziel - If suresh0t is green
Ninja4ever. - If JimTudor is green

And if one or more of them are innocent:

Nightmare - If LTT/Nemy/CDRdude is green
Infundibulum - If Nemy/CDRdude/Nightmare is green


The only reason I have CDRdude ahead of jtan as a suspect for Mr. Blue is that I really, honestly think Nemy is red (only 1 red in the Showtime! list) and has narrowly escaped coming under real suspicion numerous times. The Day 10 post where Blonde mirrors Cottonmouth just really did it for me in this regard.

I was wrong about my suspicions of Clazz turning up green! Good stuff.

Haha, I support lynching all the people in Plexa's post with the exception of RowdierBob.

+ Show Spoiler [Plexa's Suspects] +

However, I would lynch jtan as Eddie/Blue and JimTudor as Mr. Blonde. :p

With Clazz dead, the Mandalor list is getting shorter and shorter, though it still has the best odds (very nearly 1/4 with known innocents removed) out of the three lists.

Some things to note with Clazz's voting pattern now avaliable:

- He voted for Randombum in the Mayoral Election. This makes him the 6th out of just 9 known Mafia thus far who have. Very suspect, though they may have just wanted Ace out of office and/or Empyrean unprotected by bodyguards.
- He voted almost perfectly along with predicted Mafia models in all days.
- Both he and Unforgiven voted DamageControl and Ninja4ever. Day 10, the day of Unforgiven's lynching.

Ooo. I like Plexa's pinning of LTT here. I suspected him myself for Pink because of the "almost feel himself dying" bit, but I lost focus on him because of tying him to Nightmare personally. I would put LTT up at the top of the lynching list now. I also like the SpiritOfTheTuna connection (I didn't even pick up on Cottonmouth being constantly unseen) and sort of liking the Randombum connection. Plexa is feeling death coming and making one final push, which is bringing some nice results.

Notes about Clazz's posting past:

- He did indeed try to distance himself from BlindAlbino by insulting him in the thread - crazie-penguin then responded to him. I think town should be looking for Mafia insofar as who responded often to who through post history.
- Whereas he had mostly posted very short responses and such in the thread, he wrote an entire paragraph about why people should be voting Randombum instead of Ace. That's...kind of telling.

Notes about other suspects:

- Nemy and Shallow responded to eachother fairly often, directly and indirectly. L defended Shallow repeatedly and Nemy defended Crazie-Penguin, L, and Unforgiven. Why isn't anyone else picking up on this?
- Randombum defended L and Unforgiven, and supported lynching Ninja4ever., Dr. Dragoon, and DamageControl.
- Both Shallow and suresh0t posted up some very early clue analysis.
- 0cz3z also defended Shallow.
- LTT told people to not vote for d.arkive.
- CDRdude jokes about Shallow being Mafia.

So, Plexa has died and through fusions' joking, the MafiaHeaven channel has been born.

Haha, Blonde being Nemy instead of Brown could work as well! Nice going, Camlito. Either way, I'd like to see Nemy lynched, so. :p

Ok, Ace and Camlito have apparently caught wind of some info and turned the vote around suddenly to LTT/SpiritOfTheTuna. I approve of that, and believe they'll come up with double mafia. I kind of wish they'd keep the pressure on 0cz3c and/or Nemy, though...Would love to see suspicions brought to fruition (or rot) by their lynchings.

My current top suspects:

Mr. Black - Randombum
Mr. Pink - LTT
Mr. Brown - Nemy
Mr. Blonde - JimTudor/Ninja4ever.
Mr. Blue - jtan/CDRdude
The Wolf - suresh0t/Ziel
Cottonmouth - SpiritOfTheTuna
California Mountain Snake - Bockit
Copperhead - 0cz3z
Eddie - jtan, if CDRdude/someone I'm overlooking is Mr. Blue


I think 0cz3z is Copperhead more than ever now, considering that "Oh the times!" is part of Cicero's first oration, which is part of 0cz3z's profile quote.

So, LastRomantic popped into our channel and said that SpiritOfTheTuna PM'ed him a partial list of Mafia. These include himself, Bockit, and Randombum. I don't know the legitimacy of this PM, but as they are all three strong suspects personally and coming to be in the game, I think it's probably legit. :p

Oooo yeahhhh. Double red for the first time in the entire game.

That's...good and bad, I suppose. XD

Ok, so looking at their voting records, they both voted for Randombum. This makes a full 8 out of 12 that voted for him so far, and with another 8 Mafia to be revealed, who knows. I strongly believe Randombum is Mafia, and could be a fit for Mr. Black. Other than that, LTT had an annoying habit of not voting, and abstaining those few times he did. Spirit also missed out on plenty of votes, but he did vote on Day 10, during which he voted for DamageControl/Ninja4ever. instead of Unforgiven. This is especially relevant because Unforgiven himself and Clazziquai both voted the same. This strengthens the case against Bockit as a suspect, puts those who also voted this way under new suspicion by me, and also makes it seem increasingly like Ninja4ever. is innocent.

I'm hoping Camlito/Ace put town sights on 0cz3z or Randombum, next. I feel like 0cz3z is 100% Mafia, but I think Randombum would have a more stirring effect on the remaining townies.

As for Mafia strategy tonight, it's looking dire for town, having only one medic. Camlito is probably dead, and so might be fanatacist if they know he's the last bodyguard somehow. I think they'll do one of two things: stack two kills on Camlito, suspecting he'll be protected, and then use the extra hit to target fanatacist/a talkative townie OR they'll just hit three talkative townies (assuming they don't know who fanatacist is), which will probably be Camlito, Scorch, and possibly qrs. I'm beginning to distrust qrs a bit, though. He's logically dissenting, which can happen, but he's very, very consistent at being so. He also voted DamageControl/Ninja4ever. that other day.

Who knows, Heros(Pink may have been on to something before he died. :p

Yessss. Go Ace! Bockit is a good target and getting all those vets confirmed is a significant boost.

hahahaha
L revealing how the list was found, which explains a whole hell of a lot, considering I got access to it after the BlindAlbino pinning and Mafia seemed to always hit people that weren't suspects, even those we didn't publically put out there right away. Bockit is pretty much confirmed by L's defensive stance.

O, and look, jtan just came out of the woodwork to suddenly support Ace. : O

Based on L's posting pattern at the moment, I think Mafia realize the game is about up. I don't think they'll quit and I think they'll continue to make an effort, but at this point I suspect they know they're just about beat. He does have a point about town gaining some edges involved in a few people PMing medic info after being dead, though - that was unfair.

Ok, so now Ace has set sights on randombum instead, which I think is a very good idea, as well! However, I don't know how town will react - even though he serves town no purpose in general, I can feel general unease at lynching a roled person regardless.

Eh, Ace is badgering qrs a little much. All it took was to add qrs' name to Mandalor's in the search as content only. Only two pages show up, and it's the bottom topic. Every other topic is related to TLMafia as well. While I think there is the possibility of qrs turning up red, I don't think the right points are being argued here besides the dissenting nature, which could just, well, be qrs' nature.

I like that the path Ace is prepping town for in Randombum -> Bockit -> Lists. I'm also very curious as to who is on this supposed "complete Mafia list" and moreover, how it came about. I mean, I have suspects for every Mafia left alive and I'm pretty certain of all of them with the exception of Brown/Blue/Eddie, but unless Camlito/Ace have pulled magic out of the air or tied things up very nicely, I'm wondering where it's from. >.>

Chuiu hasn't gotten the Mafia hit list yet, despite the Mafia knowing the roles and having only four hits to distribute. Maybe they are giving up? Or perhaps they lost organization with the last two hits. Dunno. I sort of desire to PM L or someone to ask if I can hang out in the Mafia IRC channel just to know for sure. XD

But, I probably wouldn't be trusted and it'd spoil some of the fun, anyway. :p

So, bodyguard, mayor, and Camlito are all dead. Sucks, but not unexpected, and hey, Ace and Camlito can come join Plexa and I in the sky. :p

Notes:

- Clazziquai, though Mafia, was not Mr. Orange. Perhaps he was California Mountain Snake like I earlier guessed.
- Orange is still interrupting calls/sound.
- Supporting clues for Blonde being extremely fast.
- Eddie is firing many bullets - I think this, plus other things I tied to him earlier, confirms jtan as Eddie.
- The Wolf has soooo very many references to the word "target", that I now am changing my suspects around. I think Ziel is the prime candidate for him, and suresh0t is innocent.

So...Now we wait for town to wake up and see where they're going and who they'll follow now that town infrastructure has been destroyed. I wonder if Randombum will try to move into a position of authority now.

I hope he's who they lynch today. >.> I see SonuvBob starts of the voting thread admirably doing just that.

Haha, finally got Ace, Plexa, and Cam all in here with me. There are plenty of varying views on who the remaining Mafiaso are, though we're all universally agreed on Randombum, Bockit, and 0cz3z. We all (I believe) think jtan is Mafia, but disagree on who he is: I say Eddie, Plexa and Cam say The Wolf.

So, I'm bored. I'll take this time to play a "if I had to guess" game with myself.

So, we have eight Mafia remaining. Five are in the Mandalor list, one is in the Showtime! list, and two or three (depending on if the person in Showtime! is also in Mandalor) outside of the two.

Bearing all of this in mind, my most reasoned guess at the eight remaining Mafia are...

Mandalor List (5):

Shallow[Bay]
Randombum
0cz3z
Eti307
Nemy


Showtime! (1):

Nemy


Non-Listed (3 in my scenario):

jtan
Ziel
Bockit


Shallow and HotZhot are merely guesses by behavioral investigation and surrounding circumstantial evidence in the case of Shallow. Eti307 is a combination of reasoning and guesswork - I don't think Clazziquai was Mr. Brown as Camlito, Plexa, and the general town do. I'm guessing he was more probably California Mountain Snake as I had first analyzed him to be. This puts Bockit on the edgework of certainty, but he's still out there.

Alright, Randombum was the saboteur as well! G'bye, Mr. Veteran-Killer-Wannabe!

Somewhat disturbing to note, though, is that Spirit, Randombum, and Bockit are all in line for lynching right in a row, very soon after LR gave out his info. I know of only four other people who know the info (Myself, Plexa, Ace, and Camlito) from LR, but there could be others. I'm hoping someone out there isn't leaking info. It's worth to note that all three of them were all listed as suspects beforehand, so maybe those still alive are just going back through the past and picking up the left-behind threads.

I really don't know what else to say. I've listed all my suspects and Randombum turning up red isn't much of a surprise. I guess I'd tell town to pay special attention to those that also voted for the Bum, which are the following eight people:

Dr.Dragoon
Bockit
BWdero
Ninja4ever.
So no fek
Lysithea
Infundibulum
suresh0t

Of those, I don't believe Dragoon or So no fek are Mafia. The others I have varying degrees of surety of, the highest of which on the suspect lists are still Bockit, Ninja4ever., and suresh0t.

I'm mostly typing the next bit up to sate my own curiousity. Let's see how long it will take Mafia to kill town off in it's best case scenario, during which town kills another townie every day, and every remaining Veteran has only one hit remaining.

They have three kills per night, which is their minimum. There are forty-four townies remaining. Assuming that four townies die per day/night cycle, it will take Mafia 'til the break of Day 25 to kill off all the remaining town. All of that is only if town fails to lynch one single Mafia during the remaining duration, and all Vets only have one hit remaining.

That is almost twice of the game length currently, assuming the best case scenario for Mafia. However, finding the last seven Mafia may be harder and Mafia knows who is and is not active, and may be able to sway votes with the extremely underwhelming amount of activity by town at this stage. Furthermore, the unity that Plexa, Camlito, Ace, or even myself could have put to the town at this point is no longer there. Town lacks a figurehead, and is they tend towards voting for whoever makes the most noise, Mafia could easily garner votes in their direction.

Scorch is missing the fact that Unforgiven and Clazziquai both voted the same as Bockit during the push to take out Damage/Unforgiven. I hope that his attempts to push the people towards the Mandalor list are held in place for the moment - though someone picking up on the 0cz3z clue "O the times!" would be nice through such investigation. >.>

Hmm. I wonder who is feeding Useless this info. I would presume it be Alethios, as Ace told me he passed on all his knowledge before he got taken out. It's very smart of him to have Useless post it all up, 'since Useless is already guaranteed to be a target, with or without particular knowledge.

Bockit is at least not pulling a weak Crazie/Unforgiven/Clazziquai type of defense here. :p Still, it isn't very convincing overall.

O, and just to mention in reaction to Bockit saying that the Mandalor list is 50% Mafia, the actual Mandalor list (the other is just deduced to be correct by others logic) is still only 1/6 odds. It's quickly catching up to the other lists because of the killing spree of Mafia dying within' it lately.

Mandalor list current total: 23 people, 4 Mafia. Ratio is almost 1/6.
Showtime! current total: 7 people, 1 Mafia. Ratio is 1/7.
Non-Mandalor list current total: 28 people, 2 or 3 (depending on the Showtime! list results) mafia. Ratio is 1/12 or is close to 1/10.

The odds are still best within' the Mandalor list by pure guessing (though I am 100% certain that 0cz3c is one of the four remaining there), but that does not mean that town should shun itself from pursuing other leads, particularly the ones that Ace & Company put up before their deaths, given their and (if I were still living) our track records.

I like that Bockit is trying to dissuade people from lynching anyone that appears on the suspect list. :p

I can't tell you all how much it sucks not being able to talk after being dead when you've got several things to say. I realllly want to pin 0cz3z with the Cicero quote, but I can't.

I hope qrs doesn't get killed. Alongside Alethios, he's the only voice of reason that I feel is on our side talking right now, excepting the soon-sure-to-be-dead unsoundlogic.

suresh0t obviously isn't following or reading things as closely as possible! Not only is Cottonmouth already dead, but Mafia can't go below 3 kills per night. That is their minimum.

Alright, so Day 14 rolls around and I am confused/amused. Mafia either sent in a partial list, a questionable list, or Sonuvbob got really unlucky in Chuiu picking random townies to die in Mafia's stead.

Random notes:

- I know not what to make of Copperhead's attacks. I believe him to be 0cz3z, but even in the event that he is not Copperhead, I still strongly believe he is Mafia.
- I am extremely amused that both Clazziquai and SpiritOfTheTuna, despite turning up Mafia, did not turn up to be the people they were suspected of being! :p Cottonmouth's attacks are very abnormal for his previous patterns. Strong points to search for would be shabbily dressed and the pentagon that was mentioned in a previous days post.
- I am confused by The Wolf. This seems inconsistent with his previous days, but perhaps there is a pattern that I cannot discern here.

With the killing of Nightmare and the not-killing of Useless, confirmed townie and veteran by the Ghar list, I suspect that Mafia either sent an incomplete list, only having SonuvBob as a hit thus far, or Chuiu completely randomized. Nightmare's death narrows the Showtime! list to very nearly the same odds as the Mandalor list possesses, the latter of which has just slightly better than 1/6 odds.

The Showtime! list now contains four people in the Mandalor list (22 people/4 Mafia, nearly 1/6 odds) and two in the Non-Mandalor list (27 people, 2 or 3 Mafia, nearly 1/12 or 1/9 odds). It is more likely that one of the four from the Mandalor list is Mafia. I personally have suspicions of one from each, having reconsidered my brief position on qrs: Nemy from the Mandalor list and CDRdude from the Non-Mandalor list. Of the two, I more strongly suspect Nemy.

On a side note, I'm beginning to suspect I was wrong about both Shallow and Bockit, though I'm still suspicious of them at this point.

Ok, so I'm attempting to figure out who Randombum, Clazziquai, and SpiritOfTheTuna are here. This is what things look like to me right now:

+ Show Spoiler +

Now, taking away those I already assume to know the personality connections for, we are left with only three Mafia who have not shown up 'since Days 11/12, when Clazz and Spirit were eliminated: California Mountain Snake, Mr. Brown and Mr. Blue. Now, I can tie Clazz to California Mountain Snake, but not Spirit to Mr. Blue or Mr. Brown - and I'm quite certain Camlito was correct in the lurker connection and I suspect Nemy for Mr. Brown, so I believe I must have at least one personality tied to the wrong person. I will need do something more comprehensive to come to a stronger conclusion.

Ok, I've gone through the last five Mafia to see who they could possibly be, whilst keep all my personality links to all those previous, as they have had longer time for unrepeating Mafia/most are pretty damn solid connections to clues. This is the muddy result, with the bolded being what I think is their likely result:

Personalities cannot appear starting the Day after their death

Unforgiven_ve: Died Night 10

- Can be Mr. Brown or Joe

Clazziquai: Died Night 11

- Can be Joe, Mr. Blue, Mr. Brown, or California Mountain Snake

SpiritOfTheTuna: Died Night 12

- Can be Joe, Mr. Pink, Mr. Black, Mr. Blue, Mr. Brown, California Mountain Snake

LTT: Died Night 12

- Can be Joe, Mr. Pink, Mr. Black, Mr. Blue, Mr. Brown, California Mountain Snake

Randombum: Died Night 13

- Can be Joe, Mr. Pink, Mr. Black, Mr. Orange, Mr. Blue, Mr. Blonde, Mr. Brown, Eddie, California Mountain Snake

I italicize Mr. Brown for Clazziquai, as that may have been him as well. If I am recalling correctly, that was who Plexa and Camlito agreed he must be on the IRC channel after Mr. Orange turned up whilst Clazz took a bewildering dirt nap. There is connection there as well, and would be a more comforting fit if (and it seems it'll be that way) town is to lynch Bockit. And just to give myself some idea, the following will still be up for grabs if all the above is true, providing best case scenario (Clazz is Brown and Bockit is California):

Mr. Orange, Mr. Blue, Mr. Blonde, Eddie, Copperhead, Cottonmouth, and The Wolf.

Comparing, Spirit can only be Mr. Blue amongst all of those. So, in this case scenario, it is who he must be. I will have to wait and see what comes of Bockit, and which Mafia turn up during the next Day cycle to determine how strong this analysis truly is, though I must say that I am very confused overall as to where Clazz and Spirit truly fit.

I don't think the suresh0t as Cottonmouth analysis holds any water. Though I don't believe the person who sent it to Wysp is of bad intent. Using Wysp as a vessel for you interpretations is a sound idea for the moment, as he's one of our vets, and therefore pretty much guaranteed to be targetted at some point or another specifically.

"I think Mr. Brown was Crazie-penguin wasn't he?" I am unsure as to whether suresh0t is completely unaware of how Crazie came to die (by being connected by myself without logical doubts to King Brown Snake) or that Brown has shown up 'since Crazie's death, but in any case, he's babbling at this point. I have no position on whether this portrays innocence or intentional malignment towards the town.

Uncannily enough, someone else apparently felt the urge to compile a list of players based on when killed and what Mafia were active on what day, in a very cohesive, efficient matter!

And as I say this, Night comes...

Bockit, without much surprise, turns up red! Some clues that this would give the town if they paid close attention to the lists:

Current list odds:

Mandalor: 22 people, 4 Mafia, ratio is between 1/5 and 1/6.
Showtime!: 6 people, 1 Mafia, ratio is 1/6.
Non-Mandalor: 26 people, 1 or 2 are Mafia, ratio is 1/26 or 1/13. (Bockit was here.)

What relevancy this has was mentioned previously and is now as follows: four of the remaining six people in the Showtime! list are in the Mandalor list and two are not. Now, completely ignoring the current odds of the Showtime! list, take another look at the Mandalor list ratios vs the Non-Mandalor ratios. Those in the Non-Mandalor list have more than double the chance of turning up innocent, at the least. At their most, they are closer to four times as likely to be innocent. Thus, the Showtime! list could be narrowed by two suspects through statistical eye already.

If I were currently alive, I would suggest 0cz3z be our next target, given that he is the only suspect still I am 100% sure on. Given that I believe the Showtime! suspect to probably be in the Mandalor list, this puts two suspects in the Non-Mandalor list. I believe Ziel is one of them, and someone escaping my grasp is the other. This is who I would put town up to lynch next, in hopes of being correct and that the other may be find. In such a scenario, the majority of remaining townies would be shown innocent, and energies could be focused on the now much tighter pool of the last four hiding in less than half of town's populace.

Nemy is offering up 0cz3z as towns' next lynching! This either means he's innocent or he's really digging in to try to hide himself away. For all the suspicions I have (and still have) of him, I'm gonna vote innocent for now. In which case, I'd put qrs as Mafia.

And now Wysp + whoever PMed him finally seal the deal on 0cz3z. I wonder who it was that caught onto the quote - it was really bugging the hell out of me that nobody was seeing it. I'm hoping that it wasn't leaked like I suspect the Spirit/Bockit/Randombum info might have been. It would suck pretty hard to know that something I connected got leaked through someone I trusted to town.

0cz3z is trying to put up a lengthy defense. I hope nobody is swayed. I doubt anybody will be, as alongside the clues pointing to him, it's odd that he's fighting to stay alive after he claims to have no interest in the game, as well as defending himself immediately after being called out for lynching.

With the rising of this day, Alethios dies. His is the only major death I see amongst the three.

Random clue notes:

- Cottonmouth hands out darts that were used in ancient times, known to be used by the Greeks, Romans, and Byzantines.
- He hands out 15 of them, his recurring number.
- Nothing else stands out.





I don't see why Nemy is so assured that Randombum was Eddie. It may well be so, but there is quite a few others he could be. I believe he was Mr. Black, still.

In any case, I'm glad to see the first four votes being cast for 0cz3z.

In further searching of the plumbata usage, I've come across the mention of lawn darts. I note now remembering their use as a source of death much, much earlier in the game, when someone was thrown out of a window onto such. So, instead of a ancient connection, perhaps the answer lies more certainly in the area of, well, darts in general. I am, as ever, confused about Cottonmouth.

0cz3z turns up red! Now I have nobody currently to whine about town not gunning for. :p





Aw, poor Fusion. Much <3 to him for his blog post, without which I would be at a loss as to where to find the various lists and posts critical to hunting down Mafia. He may have also done other things I was unaware of, as for the most part, I was just doing things on my own and with Plexa. And, y'know, Fusion got killed pretty quickly after I started actually getting involved. :p

I'm honestly feeling a little uninterested at this point. Not because I don't care about what happens anymore, but that I really think there's might be some afterdeath cheating going on by town side recently. The killing off of every suspect that Spirit confirmed in a row, followed by 0cz3z (during which someone connected the O the times! quote to him and sent it to Wysp) being put up for lynching, makes me feel that it's quite possibly more than coincidence. It still could be just that, but I really don't know.

Anyway, clue notes:

- Mr. Orange is still cutting people off from using telephones/calling for help/sound in general. This seems like a very strong, obvious clue, yet I can't immediately connect it to anyone and don't feel like trying to. :p
- I have no idea who the killer using the buzzsaw might've been. I have a feeling that Chuiu linked two different Mafia into the post here, one using the lack of sleep or alertness/defensiveness clues and the other being the overkilling buzzsaw guy.

I forgot the remove the rest of the veterans with the death of Bockit, so this is what the lists and ratios look like now:


Lists:


Mandalor List:
+ Show Spoiler +


Showtime! List:
+ Show Spoiler +


People Not On Mandalor List:
+ Show Spoiler +

The ratios are almost the same in the Showtime! and Mandalor lists. Given that the odds are so much more extremely high in the Non-Mandalor list, it's likely that whoever they hit out of Showtime! will silmultaneously take a person out of Mandalor as well.

As for who I'd like to see lynched next, I think suresh0t is a good choice that the town is already on track for. The clues from the past still match up, and jtan, who I suspect of being Mafia, is voting for Nemy, who I keep flip-flopping on, but think is innocent for the moment. The latter is because of Randombum trying to accuse Nemy, Nemy then accusing Randombum, and now jtan refocusing attentions on Nemy. It could all be an elaborate ploy by Mafia to clear Nemy of suspicion, as Randombum was already a suspect, but I'd rather think otherwise. :p

Other than suresh0t, three others I'd like to see town go after are jtan and Shallow. I believe jtan is Eddie (still not proven dead by my accounts) and Shallow I just have a feeling about that could, as always, be completely wrong. :p

Hmm, someone posting up lists identical to my own for the first time in, well, forever. It looks like someone legit is doing it, too, happily. I know Plexa, Cam, and Ace all believed in reducing the Mandalor list down by eliminating unlikely suspects, so their reduced list would be smaller, and I know that I've had sealed lips, even among my fellow dead.

Alright, night comes about and suresh0t turns up red. I think Ace sums up my, and general towns feelings, here:

+ Show Spoiler +

Now, looking at those who voted for Nemy in the stead of suresh0t, we see qrs, jtan, and (predictably) Bugzltoonl.

If I had a voice, I'd put it out there that jtan goes down next. After that, I dunno. I have an eye on qrs and Shallow, though.

Haha, Nemy, the guy I brought up as a suspect no less than four times throughout my life in the game, guy who said "FUCK YOU" at me, is now who I am cheering for most in death. XD

Get jtan!

As for the other three people being brought up...The Nemy/Mirror connection is still valid, and although I'm currently championing him, I still wouldn't remove him from my suspect list. :p

STR = Mr. Orange seems like a very weak connection to me.

CDRdude is a fair bet to me.

All in all, I think town is on the right general track with jtan, CDRdude, and possibly Nemy. I do not think qrs is Mafia.

Haha, Shallow died fittingly. : x

Random notes:

- Blonde has a satanic/dark nature about him. I though the pentagon reference was for Cottonmouth the other day, but I now suspect this is Blonde's clue.
- Cottonmouth is still using darts and still coming up 15.
- Orange likes being unique?

So, Shallow is no longer a suspect, needless to say.

Ratio is now best in the Showtime! list. I suspect Mafia may have targetted araav with the intent of making qrs (in Mandalor/Showtime! and generally portrayed as an enemy) a juicier target for lynching.

Random, pointless guess at who is Mafia right now...

From Mandalor (2): I dunno...SoMuchBetter and nemY, for the hell of it.
From Showtime! (1): For consistencies sake, nemY.
From Non-Mandalor (2): jtan anddd MasterOfChaos, for the potential of being satanically linked. :p

I think town is heading the wrong way here, seeming to build up momentum towards lynching str. I hope they don't continue down that path.

I like the connections qrs is making to BWdero.

I knew str was a bad bet.

I think Mafia'll hit either qrs, nemY, or both tonight, though I'm pretty sure at least one of them is red! I'm leaning (back and forth here) towards nemY being that one for the moment.

Hopefully town will gun for nemY, jtan, or BWdero next. I like them all as choices.

Good to know. :p



Haste and arrogance is quite obviously Blonde.
Likewise, determination and humor is obviously Blue.
Panic I'd connect to Orange. He causes people to go into hysterics and then promptly shuts them up.
That leaves a hidden agenda for Cottonmouth.

As for who I would attribute each death to...

"Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin."

Cottonmouth or Blue, dunno. Perhaps the both of them, as there are only three kills.

"Pangolin suffocated in his sleep with no chance to even cry for help."

Obviously Orange. It annoys me greatly that I still overlook something that connects someone to this strong theme of silencing/preventing sound from others.

"And finally ZBiR had taken a sharp dive down a cliff which he never recalled scaling into the ground."

This leaves Blonde, which makes sense to me given that ZBiR is very high up - I have the general feeling that Blonde might be aircraft related, likely a jet of some sort, as per the "jetted" references in the past, his speed, and that this death seems to indicate ZBiR having reached a high place without ever climbing up.

At this point, I think qrs is more likely Mafia than Nemy, and is possibly acting alongside jtan to push votes. Whether or not the other two Mafia are inactive or not is up for grabs - jtan came out of the woodwork only recently, but the other two, having been inactive beforehand, may want to keep a low profile by not suddenly showing up on the scene. That in mind, they could be inactive and, if that is the case, this could turn into a race to see which side kills off the others actives first.

which frankly blows

Wellll, at least Nemy died and turned up green on a day that I was saying I thought he was green instead of the other way around.

I honestly have no idea what Mafia is gonna do tonight. The majority of talking lately has been by the dead, but with Chuiu talking about replacing inactives with fresh blood, Mafia may just choose to focus on vets or people they suspect are doing any behind-the-scenes detective work that might be going on.

As for who I think town should be gunning for...At this point I'm fairly certain qrs is Mafia, and actually his name could be linked to Mr. Blue because of the spiked nature of the QRS complex, which has a page on Wikipedia here. Scroll down to the section about the QRS complex. There's even a very nice picture there that looked like lurker fire when I first looked at it. :p

Which means I now have three suspects for Mr. Blue, being CDRdude, jtan, and qrs. I'd like to see them lynched in the reverse order I listed them. For Orange I (annoyingly) have nobody to suggest. I don't know who should go up as Blonde, though with qrs downtalking Nemy's proposal of HotZhot, perhaps Nemy was onto something.

As for Cottonmouth, I'm going to choose to believe qrs about BWdero being Mafia, despite suspecting qrs to be Mafia himself. BWdero has never shown himself to be active and has rarely posted on the site at all, so could even actually be fully inactive - furthermore, getting a strong "I advocated for the lynching of this person" kill at this point in the game would do a lot to solidify trust for him, which is what Mafia needs to seal victory here.

I don't like the idea of Chuiu replacing inactives at this point in the game. I was alllll for just killing off inactives earlier, so long as it was proportionately done to both sides, but this is a different matter entirely. I have no doubt Chuiu would do things intelligently (avoiding town suspects/just replacing people who haven't said a word all game/avoiding using names in the next Days clues), but it would be impossibly hard to do things fairly if he starts replacing people. Replacing inactive Mafia means that a whole new clueset has to be made for whatever person, which is a dead giveaway that one of the new people is Mafia. If there are no new clues, then it is similarly a giveaway that the new person is innocent. He could, of course, make clues in such a way that are ambigous in nature and not easily tied to anyone, but that is still a problem overall, as I see it.

Meh. I'm pretty well done with this game of Mafia. It's slowed down to a crawl, filled with bickering and complaining, and I'm tired of guessing anymore. I'm just gonna PM a dead Mafia and ask who is who now. XD

Okay, so the guy I PM'ed has responded...I'm gonna take wild stabs at the four now and see. : x

qrs
jtan
BWDero
and uhhh
I'll go with Nemy's suspect, HotZhot.


REMAINING MAFIA!

Infundibulum
HotZhot
KF91
BWDero


Well, only one of the four (BWDero) was a suspect I'd have lynched, though I support Nemy's suspect HotZhot in general. The other two were completely out of my line of sight.

Qrs seems to have been right in his analysis of BWDero matching Cottonmouth's description and numbers.
HotZhot seems to be Mr. Blonde.
I don't really know which of the remaining two go to who - I can't make any immediate connections.

What I find most funny here, at the end of it all, is that the two guys that I kept going back and forth between suspecting, qrs and Nemy, were both green!
O well. Can't always be on the mark. :p

Qrs and this ydg guy are doing a pretty damn good job lately. BWDero and HotZhot were already suspects, but KF91 was off the radar. Infundibulum can be tied the same way that he's tying KF91, too, by the voting system.

It's funny that, now that I know the remaining Mafiaso, my interest has been rekindled a little. :p



My intial inclination towards this post was to go "clever, clever" as Infundibulum knows he's getting lynched and seems to be trying to tie up Ahrara as a buddy before he goes down. However, there are the obvious factors to consider, such as the surety of his being lynched (and motives thus clearly revealed) as well as that Ahrara will be proven green with Infundibulum's lynching, alongside everyone else in Showtime!/Mandalor.



o_O
Like Bill, I am in awe at this little bit of interpretation. I know what they don't know, that KF91 is indeed Mafia, but I hadn't even thought to relate...just...good job. XD

Aaaand it's finally over!

GG to all involved, though I have a feeling some people may have a soured view on this. Overall, from what I saw on both sides, I think both did a very good job at killing off the other. :p