EPTPreamble:
Some people have no clue on how to play FPL and randomly pick players, often with disastrous results. This guide is for FPL beginners who have no clue what they're doing. Experienced players can go do your own thing because there is really no one best way to win FPL, if not the same guy with the best strategy would win every round. In fact, I think nobody has ever won FPL twice.
I've never won FPL personally. My recent form (past 3 FPLs) is 2nd in R16, 12th in R18 and 16th in R19. I missed the signups for R17. I'm by no means the best FPL player on TL, but decent enough to draft teams that hover near the top, so I guess I have the necessary credentials to write this guide.
General FPL Strategy:
There are 2 main parts to FPL: deciding which players are good, and knowing how to game the system. Even if you are an accurate judge of player skill, you still will not do well if you can't grasp the nuances of mechanics such as point value changes and trading.
The Main Team
In the past, one-team allins could win. But with the current rules, there are many viable approaches to crafting a team. Some people try to get balanced teams. Some people pick a lot of high point players and fill up the other slots with 0/1 pointers. Certain individuals choose high point teams, while others prefer low point ones so that they can spend more points on players. So, which exactly is the best strategy?
Above all, we must keep our sights on the goal: to win FPL. So how many points should we aim for? In Proleague format, usually 130 points is enough to win. It varies from season to season, depending on the performance of Proleague players, but let's assume the aim is 130 points for the purposes of this guide. Now, we must not forget the anti-team. It is very hard to get an anti-team which accrues less than 10 points, but usually a good player's anti-team will not exceed 20 points. Let's set the aim for the anti-team at 15 points. That means that the main team must accrue 145 points. But of course, along the way, you will make trades which will boost your score (which will be covered later). So let's reduce the initial aim of the main team to 130, assuming that we can make trades worth +15 later on.
At this moment, one may interject: "I'm only trying to get a decent FPL score, not win!" But do not forget, even if you are aiming for diamond league and not masters, you will still try to win every match you play. Always shoot for the moon, because if you miss, you will end up floating endlessly in space until the oxygen in your spacesuit runs out and you die a lonely death. Or something like that. I'm not very good with inspirational quotes.
An example of a team set-up with projected score accumulated by player in brackets.
Player 1: 7 points (25)
Player 2: 3 points (15)
Player 3: 3 points (15)
Player 4: 3 points (15)
Player 5: 7 points (25)
Player 6: 4 points (20)
Team: 3 points (15)
This is very achievable. A 7 pointer who sometimes comes out as ace for his team can get 25 points. Decent 3-4 pointers who play every week can get 15-20 points if they win 4 matches in the 7 weeks. Most people who draft without thinking a lot will get one of these good picks who perform up to the standard required of their value. But the main difficulty is in having ALL your picks perform well.
Now, let's examine a heavy-hitter set up.
Player 1: 7 points (30)
Player 2: 7 points (30)
Player 3: 7 points (30)
Player 4: 7 points (30)
Player 5: 1 point (5)
Player 6: 0 point (2)
Team: 1 point (6)
The highest score players ever give in PL format is high 20s to 30 points, and even if they do, few of them will perform that well every round. So, as we can see, getting two 0/1 pointers is not a very good strategy. The best team like that I've ever seen is esdf's team in R18. But usually, picking maximum 1 throwaway player is a wiser choice.
I will go through the picking of individual players and teams in a later section. But first, let's take a look at how to build an anti-team.
The Anti-Team
The main team is what wins you FPL. The anti-team is what kills your FPL. You do need both to perform obediently in order for your FPL to avoid disaster. There are generally only 3 good approaches to picking the anti team:
1) A spread-out team. The usual point spread is 5/4/4. Your 5 pointer might play almost every week, and your 4 pointers maybe about half the time. Unless the admins screw up (like 4 points for
Sora the previous round), you won't find a 4 pointer that never plays games. Let's say your 5 pointer wins 2 games and has 3 points from team wins and your 4 pointers win 1 game each and have 2 points from team wins. That's 17 points already. 5/4/4 is a safe strategy, but usually not a wonderful one.2) 1 decent player, 1 who seldom plays and 1 who never does. Example: 6/4/3. The 4 pointer might get maybe 1 win and the 3 pointer might get 2-3 for team score if his team is bad. The 6 pointer will have to be a player whom you hope trips up and wins only 1-2 games.
3) 1 high value player and 2 who never play. Example: 7/3/3. DON'T ever go 10/2/1.
Compare these 2 anti-teams:
Super (7)Sora (3)
aLive (3)and
Maru (10)Avenge (2)
Armani (1)The top one is better because even though either
Sora and aLive might get sent out and win 1 game, it won't cover the Super for Maru deficit. Also, when they start getting sent out, you can trade them away. Anyway, Super is not getting sent out in the first week and you might be able to trade him away for week 2 if the situation permits.Last round, I went with a
RorO (7) eMotion (3) Trend (3) anti-team, made 2 trades (RorO -> Soulkey -> Rogue), and ended up with -11 total for the anti-team (-13 including trade tax), which is not too shabby.Trading
Trading is something that many players do badly, but also something that good players can exploit well. When you trade, make sure you are trading for a player with better value. Matchups matter, but matchups are not everything, If you trade a good player for a worse one because the worse one has a better matchup that week, and he loses it, you are stuck with a bad player you can't trade off. The best situation is if you can find a trade for a player with both a higher skill level and better matchups.
Don't keep a player just because he keeps winning or trade a player because he keeps losing. Players might win or lose matches they shouldn't, and that should be treated as a product of variance. Judge a player's skill level objectively by actually watching him play, and keep his skill level in mind. If his trade value rises above his actual skill level, sell. If it goes below, keep holding on, as he can only get better.
Common trading strategies/gimmicks which work:
1) Extending a player's lifespan
Let's say players A and B are roughly equal in skill. Player A plays 2 matches in week 1 while Player B plays only 1. Player A wins both, and because his opponents are good, his trade value rises above Player B. Now, Trading Player A for B in this situation is good, because B has 1 more match to play and hence you are "extending the lifespan" of your player. But keep in mind that the trade value of a player is his base trade value X number of matches remaining.
2) Trading off players on a streak.
Often, a player performs so well that his point value rises disgustingly high. When this happens, trade him off instantly. For example,
Zest last round and ByuL 2 rounds ago garnered 13 points in the first week only, and couldn't make more than 13 points in all the other 4 weeks combined. Players who traded them off after the first round made a good decision. I had both of them and did exactly that (although I tragically traded Zest for Flash instead of Creator. The decision to trade was right, the decision of whom to trade for was wrong.)3) The discursive anti-team
Pick an anti-team of players who get sent out rarely (2/3 out of 7 matches) and trade them off when you see them get sent out in a match you think they might actually win.
4) The 1-pointer.
Sometimes, you can buy a 1 pointer on the best team whose trade value will rise due to his team performance, and then at the last week, you might be able to trade him for a 2 pointer who plays a game or 2. But don't count on it.
5) The foreign tournament.
Player away for foreign tournament? He goes on anti, and gets removed once he comes back.
Picking players
Generally, picking a 7 pointer or above is a shitty decision unless he is the ace of his team and is guaranteed to perform well. There are exceptions like
TY 2 rounds ago, but that's because he went 7-0. I will rate all the players for this round according to my personal judgement. Keep in mind that I do not rate the players purely by their actual skill, but by their FPL utility based on their current matchups in week 1, their cost, as well as their maximum point potential.![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/R1tfusN.png)
10-Pointers
Bad -
MaruMaru is not a good pick at all. He is a safe pick, but not a pick for a person who wants to win FPL. Last round, no player got more than 30 points. Even if Maru gets 30 points, you will be spending 1/3 of your total point pool for just 30 points, which is a terrible decision. Also, it will be hard to find a good trade for Maru, as you will invariably be trading down in point value. And to compound all that, he faces Flash and herO in week 1.9-Pointers
Average -
herOA better pick than
Maru. herO is the only ace of his team while Maru shares it with sOs sometimes. Highest points in FPL last round as well as current highest Aligulac ranking attest to his skill. But still, 9 points is a bit pricey even for a player of his calibre.Bad -
ZestSo far I've had
Zest in all of the FPL rounds I've played except 2, even including the BW ones (I'm the one true hipster Zest fan), but this round, I won't pick him. Zest will do well, but 9 points for a player who doesn't even play all the ace matches is just not worth it.8-Pointers
Average -
Flash, sOsI would say that in terms of skill level,
Flash is about equal to Zest and sOs to Maru, but these 2 are cheaper to pick. Still a little bit pricey, but if you have nothing else to spend your points on, go ahead and choose one of these 2. However, know that if you spend this many points on a player and he doesn't perform, you're dead.Bad -
CreatorCreator did perform well last round, but I highly doubt he can repeat his performance. Looking at the prime coaching decisions, Creator and MKP share the ace spot, and MKP was sent for the super ace against SGK, not Creator. So, we might assume that in in-house rankings, both are about equal. However, Creator is worth twice as much as MKP, making MKP a better choice if you want to pick one of the 2 prime aces.Terrible -
TYI'm not saying
TY is a bad player. He is quite a good one. However, for 8 points, you would want an ace player, not a player who is overshadowed by his 2 more illustrious teammates. Also, he isn't even being played for 2 out of 2 opening matches. There's no way he will repeat his round 1 performance, or his round 5 performance last season (which is definitely more impressive).7-Pointers
Good -
RorOHe has established himself as the best player on his team, and is likely to go out as ace all the time now that
Solar has fallen out of favour. Going by his performance in the previous 2 rounds, he should be a solid pick.Average -
Hydra, DRG, SuperDespite
Hydra's bad recent form, he is actually quite a decent player. But 7 points for him is just too much. For 7 points, you would want at least an ace, and herO is not going to share the spot with Hydra.I would like to rate the twin aces of MVP higher, but for some reason they are not getting sent out in the first week. It's also hard to find a player who can be traded for them at the end of the first week, because MVP only plays 1 match. I'm not ranking them lower because it is also a bit risky to put them on the anti. Their trade value will be high after the first week due to MVP only having one match, and if they start wrecking from week 2 onwards, you're doomed.
Bad -
Rain, TrapRain didn't do too well last round. His team is so stacked that he isn't even getting sent out for week 1. Why not pick PartinG who is cheaper?Trap can pull out wins consistently, but the IM coach likes to rotate him off the roster, and 7 points just doesn't seem worth it.Terrible -
Stats7 points for the 4th best player on his team who isn't even playing in 2 out of 2 week 1 matches. Definitely a no go.
6-Pointers
Wonderful -
SoulkeySK has played ace matches the most often in SKT, so he is probably their best player. While he may not be the best player in Proleague now, 6 points for him is definitely a steal.
Good -
PartinG, Bbyong, FanTaSyPartinG didn't do so well last round with not much playtime, but he has a favourable matchup to start off this round so you can probably find a good trade even if oov decides to rotate him off the roster.Bbyong and FanTaSy should be okay for 6 points if they can repeat their performance in the previous round, but any less and they won't be worth it. I would still consider these 2 somewhat risky.Average -
ByuLA consistent performer, but doesn't usually perform exceptionally well.
Bad -
ClassicClassic isn't getting sent out for week 1. If you really like him, why not pick someone else and trade for him later?Terrible -
CureCure did go 3-2 last round, but that's only because Jin Air lost sOs and Rogue to IEM for 2 of their matches. Jin Air usually sends out the Maru sOs Rogue trio and rotates the last spot. 6 points for a player who plays intermittently is not worth it. Also, if you've watched his code A matches, his play seems uninspired.5-Pointers
Bad -
Squirtle, KeeNFor a 5 pointer, you would want a player who can play in every match and win at least 4 of them. Given the lineups of IM and MVP, these 2 guys won't get enough playtime to be worth 5 points.
4-Pointers
Good -
soO, MKPsoO is definitely a good player, capable of making 2 back to back GSL finals. But his team is so stacked that he may not be sent out every match. You might be able to trade him off, but my personal opinion is that soO will be rather hit or miss.MKP is probably the cheapest player this round who will ever be sent as ace. He won't win all of his matches, but should be able to do decently.Bad -
HerO, Dream, Stork, YongHwaHerO won't get a lot of playtime as the IM coach has to give priority to his own players, and he still has 2 other mercenaries. Also, if you want to pick an IM mercenary, Life is the better choice.Dream, Stork and YongHwa will probably get sent out intermittently. If you compare them to MKP, you might find them equal in skill (although I personally favour MKP), but since MKP gets sent out every round, he is the better 4 point pick. That being said, Dream has an easy first match against DeParture, which is a redeeming factor.Terrible -
Bunny, TRUEThese guys won't play much. Why are they even worth 4?
3-Pointers
Wonderful -
RogueI don't understand why
Rogue is 3 points and Cure is 6 when both went 3-2 last round although Rogue was sent to IEM for 2 matches, letting Cure/Terminator have his spot. As a 3 pointer who will be sent out in every match and can perform well, Rogue is a brilliant pick.Good -
Life, EffOrtLife is a good player, but won't get sent out all the time because the IM coach has to give his own players exposure. If you pick Life, you are betting on the IM coach's decisions, and it will be pretty hit or miss.EffOrt is a decent player who is good at ZvZ, which he incidentally gets for his first match. But he won't get sent out in every match.Average -
Leenock, Reality, SolarLeenock's situation is like Life. A good player, but a mercenary whose playtime is uncertain. In fact, he isn't even being sent out in the first round.Reality is interestingly getting sent out in both week 1 matches, but they are tough ones, so picking him is a bit risky.Solar is a good player. If you've just watched his Code A matches, you would be wont to agree. But he isn't getting played in the first week. Don't pick him, but keep him in view in case he starts seeing playtime, because acquiring him might just be one of the best trades of the season.Bad - Everyone else
These guys won't see much playtime. Usually, there are a lot of good 3 pointers, but this round the pool of 3 point players is tragic. I would recommend sticking with
Rogue. Players like Sora or hyvaa might start getting sent out and doing well later, but you should trade for them, not start out with them,2-Pointers
I generally don't pick 2-Pointers. Usually, for a 2-Pointer, the best you can get is a guy who plays and wins maybe 2 matches. Last round,
Bbyong and FanTaSy were 2-pointers who accrued a massive amount of points, but they are flukes rather than the norm. Unless you can see one of the 2-Pointers having a breakout round, don't pick them. If you really want one though, I would say TAiLS is the best, because of his recent magnificent play in Code A as well as his easy matchup in week 1.1-Pointers
People usually pick 1 pointers for team points.
Hush and Terminator are the best 1 pointers, because apart from being on decent teams, they actually play (1 Point Prime players do play, but Gerrard is just throwing them out in desperation). If you believe Choya's interview after advancing to Code A, he is actually a top GM practice bonjwa, but don't count on it.0-Pointers
Barbie will never play. ByuN has a 0.1% chance of breaking out of KeSPA jail and tearing up Proleague. I think you should know which is the better choice.+ Show Spoiler +
The answer is neither
Remember that the point values assigned to the players are based on the TL mods' opinions of the players. What you want is to pick underrated players (worth more then their assigned point value) for your main and overrated ones for your anti team. An exercise you could do is to assign your own point values to the players, and then compare it to the FPL values, so you know which players are good for their cost (Caution: this only works if you have good judgement of player skill in the first place).
Picking teams
Picking teams is interesting, because picking the highest scoring team is not always the best decision. For example, consider KT and SKT in the current round. KT is worth 6 points and SKT 4. However, how much more points than SKT do you think KT will earn? I'd reckon about 3-4, and that is not enough to justify putting in 2 more points when you can upgrade a 4 point player to a 6 point one.
Good - CJ, SKT
Both are 4 pointers that will probably reach the playoffs. They might not do better than the 6 point teams, but I doubt the performance disparity is worth the 2 points.
Average - Prime
Prime is the cheap pick for people who would rather spend points on players. Last round Prime got 5 points and Jin Air 16. Assuming they repeat their performances, it's 5 points which can upgrade a 1 pointer to a 6 pointer, and can definitely get you more than 11 score.
Bad - Jin Air, KT, IM, MVP
Jin Air, KT, IM and MVP just pale in comparison to the other choices. IM fans might be hoping for IM to suddenly do well, which might happen, but is unlikely. MVP is very much overrated at 4 points, because of their fairytale run last round.
???-Samsung Khan
The enigma. Excellent in the first round, terrible in the second. Now, they are worth 2 points. Are you up for the gamble?
Q&A
Feel free to ask any questions about FPL strategy and I will try to give my advice.
He plays more than he deserves to.
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