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Well, slightly sensational title I guess.
So a while back some people asked me about the predictive accuracy of the Aligulac system. They didn't feel this beautiful graph was enough, and maybe rightly so. The rating system has been optimized over the whole database, while people are generally only interested in the high-level games. These are harder to predict and the picture looks a bit different if you restrict your view to only the top.
So I accepted the challenge and started playing Liquibet. Now, I don't really know how the seasons work there and I have no idea when it will be reset, so I just started in the middle. That's why I'm not currently leading. 
I once said that I thought a good liquibetter would beat Aligulac. Well, turns out maybe the difference isn't as high as I thought it was.
So far I have won 46/72 points just blindly following Aligulac predictions. For 1v1 that means inputting player names here and then just picking the highest number. For groups, that means generally picking the two with the highest probability of advancing, though there are some caveats to this since the choices aren't independent. For team matches it means picking whichever team has the highest rank in the relevant format. Some teams are not listed (such as EG-TL), so in those cases some minor mental effort is required.
46/72 points is a rate of 63.88%. The current leader is SpiZe, who has 161/253. That is 63.64%.
Does this mean Liquibet is broken?
A game that offered higher payouts for predicting upsets (like every other betting game in existence) would be both harder to break systematically and probably also more exciting to play.
 
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5/5 I'm all for critizing them. Coinspiracyyyyyyyyy
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Will be better once more of the kespa players get more matches so we have an idea of their actual skill level 
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United Kingdom14464 Posts
hahahah thats awesome to see that it has finally reached above sentient level.
in general you are now basically above criticism with the whole thing, its looks like its currently better at predicting (at least Korean games) than anyone on the site.
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United States97276 Posts
How many multipoint liquibets has it done? I assume the leader would have more 3 and 5 point liquibets correct so I'm interest to see how the percent votes correct match up as well as the points earned % you showed.
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5003 Posts
So far I have won 46/72 points just blindly following Aligulac predictions. For 1v1 that means inputting player names here and then just picking the highest number. For groups, that means generally picking the two with the highest probability of advancing, though there are some caveats to this since the choices aren't independent. For team matches it means picking whichever team has the highest rank in the relevant format. Some teams are not listed (such as EG-TL), so in those cases some minor mental effort is required.
You can add in a feature so you can run simulations and return the most likely outcome for group stage games like this
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I can't believe you haven't refined the system to get 99% of picks correct BB, such a slacker...
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You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying"
+ Show Spoiler +Starring Daniel Radcliffe
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On February 26 2013 08:21 GhandiEAGLE wrote:You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying" + Show Spoiler +Starring Daniel Radcliffe
and nicholas cage...
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I wouldn't trust someone whose name is an anagram of Caligula. He's clearly insane
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Daaang this is pretty awesome. I can't believe it's doing so well :O
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On February 26 2013 16:05 MattBarry wrote:
I wouldn't trust someone whose name is an anagram of Caligula. He's clearly insane
That is the sites name, his name is TheBB.
Your point is invalid :-P
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On February 26 2013 09:55 MysteryMeat1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2013 08:21 GhandiEAGLE wrote:You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying" + Show Spoiler +Starring Daniel Radcliffe and nicholas cage...
Playing each other.
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Calculate the statistics of winning liquibet before and after your blog. Even the best system will not make you outstanding if its public. At best you are equal to the # of users that also use that method :p!
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Back in the BW days, I was #1 for a long while (towards the end), what I did was just run the players through TLPD on
1) their records against each other
2) their records against the opponents' races
While looking out for severe map imbalances.
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On April 19 2013 17:17 Type|NarutO wrote:
Calculate the statistics of winning liquibet before and after your blog. Even the best system will not make you outstanding if its public. At best you are equal to the # of users that also use that method :p!
Nobody seem to believe in the system, yet it did work fairly well for Eivind when he still used it.
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I think I recall you posting one of your predictions using this method and it was quite different from what I had on paper and what do you know. I think you got them all right? o-O
In any case I haven't Liquibetted in ages. Just don't have the time to really play it, but I must say this was an interesting read.
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EPT
