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How to win Liquibet with almost zero effort

Blogs > TheBB
Post a Reply
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-25 19:49:52
February 25 2013 19:49 GMT
#1
Well, slightly sensational title I guess.

So a while back some people asked me about the predictive accuracy of the Aligulac system. They didn't feel this beautiful graph was enough, and maybe rightly so. The rating system has been optimized over the whole database, while people are generally only interested in the high-level games. These are harder to predict and the picture looks a bit different if you restrict your view to only the top.

So I accepted the challenge and started playing Liquibet. Now, I don't really know how the seasons work there and I have no idea when it will be reset, so I just started in the middle. That's why I'm not currently leading.

I once said that I thought a good liquibetter would beat Aligulac. Well, turns out maybe the difference isn't as high as I thought it was.

So far I have won 46/72 points just blindly following Aligulac predictions. For 1v1 that means inputting player names here and then just picking the highest number. For groups, that means generally picking the two with the highest probability of advancing, though there are some caveats to this since the choices aren't independent. For team matches it means picking whichever team has the highest rank in the relevant format. Some teams are not listed (such as EG-TL), so in those cases some minor mental effort is required.

46/72 points is a rate of 63.88%. The current leader is SpiZe, who has 161/253. That is 63.64%.

Does this mean Liquibet is broken?

A game that offered higher payouts for predicting upsets (like every other betting game in existence) would be both harder to break systematically and probably also more exciting to play.

****
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
GeckoVOD
Profile Blog Joined August 2006
Germany814 Posts
February 25 2013 20:00 GMT
#2
5/5 I'm all for critizing them. Coinspiracyyyyyyyyy
@DonGeckone on Twitterstuff // JOIN THE YODA FANCLUB OR YOU'RE REALLY REALLY UNCOOL: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=398220
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 25 2013 21:22 GMT
#3
Will be better once more of the kespa players get more matches so we have an idea of their actual skill level
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
MCDayC
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom14464 Posts
February 25 2013 21:36 GMT
#4
hahahah thats awesome to see that it has finally reached above sentient level.
in general you are now basically above criticism with the whole thing, its looks like its currently better at predicting (at least Korean games) than anyone on the site.
VERY FRAGILE, LIKE A BABY PANDA EGG
Shellshock
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States97276 Posts
February 25 2013 21:41 GMT
#5
How many multipoint liquibets has it done? I assume the leader would have more 3 and 5 point liquibets correct so I'm interest to see how the percent votes correct match up as well as the points earned % you showed.
Moderatorhttp://i.imgur.com/U4xwqmD.png
TL+ Member
Milkis
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
5003 Posts
February 25 2013 21:43 GMT
#6
So far I have won 46/72 points just blindly following Aligulac predictions. For 1v1 that means inputting player names here and then just picking the highest number. For groups, that means generally picking the two with the highest probability of advancing, though there are some caveats to this since the choices aren't independent. For team matches it means picking whichever team has the highest rank in the relevant format. Some teams are not listed (such as EG-TL), so in those cases some minor mental effort is required.


You can add in a feature so you can run simulations and return the most likely outcome for group stage games like this
alQahira
Profile Joined June 2011
United States511 Posts
February 25 2013 23:07 GMT
#7
I can't believe you haven't refined the system to get 99% of picks correct BB, such a slacker...
GhandiEAGLE
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States20754 Posts
February 25 2013 23:21 GMT
#8
You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying"

+ Show Spoiler +
Starring Daniel Radcliffe
Oh, my achin' hands, from rakin' in grands, and breakin' in mic stands
MysteryMeat1
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States3291 Posts
February 26 2013 00:55 GMT
#9
On February 26 2013 08:21 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying"

+ Show Spoiler +
Starring Daniel Radcliffe

and nicholas cage...
"Cause ya know, Style before victory." -The greatest mafia player alive
MattBarry
Profile Joined March 2011
United States4006 Posts
February 26 2013 07:05 GMT
#10
I wouldn't trust someone whose name is an anagram of Caligula. He's clearly insane
Platinum Support GOD
Aerisky
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States12129 Posts
February 26 2013 08:23 GMT
#11
Daaang this is pretty awesome. I can't believe it's doing so well :O
Jim while Johnny had had had had had had had; had had had had the better effect on the teacher.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 26 2013 17:31 GMT
#12
On February 26 2013 16:05 MattBarry wrote:
I wouldn't trust someone whose name is an anagram of Caligula. He's clearly insane

That is the sites name, his name is TheBB.
Your point is invalid :-P
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
phodacbiet
Profile Joined August 2010
United States1740 Posts
April 19 2013 07:55 GMT
#13
On February 26 2013 09:55 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2013 08:21 GhandiEAGLE wrote:
You should rename it "How to Succeed in Liquibets Without Really Trying"

+ Show Spoiler +
Starring Daniel Radcliffe

and nicholas cage...


Playing each other.
NarutO
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
Germany18839 Posts
April 19 2013 08:17 GMT
#14
Calculate the statistics of winning liquibet before and after your blog. Even the best system will not make you outstanding if its public. At best you are equal to the # of users that also use that method :p!
CommentatorPolt | MMA | Jjakji | BoxeR | NaDa | MVP | MKP ... truly inspiring.
Cambium
Profile Blog Joined June 2004
United States16368 Posts
April 19 2013 11:16 GMT
#15
Back in the BW days, I was #1 for a long while (towards the end), what I did was just run the players through TLPD on

1) their records against each other
2) their records against the opponents' races

While looking out for severe map imbalances.
When you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
April 19 2013 15:34 GMT
#16
On April 19 2013 17:17 Type|NarutO wrote:
Calculate the statistics of winning liquibet before and after your blog. Even the best system will not make you outstanding if its public. At best you are equal to the # of users that also use that method :p!

Nobody seem to believe in the system, yet it did work fairly well for Eivind when he still used it.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
StarStruck
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
25339 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-04-20 15:02:14
April 20 2013 14:59 GMT
#17
I think I recall you posting one of your predictions using this method and it was quite different from what I had on paper and what do you know. I think you got them all right? o-O

In any case I haven't Liquibetted in ages. Just don't have the time to really play it, but I must say this was an interesting read.
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